Welcome to a discussion about the upcoming 5th Revolution in the US, which I’ve titled the “Revenge Revolution.” For more about the Revenge Revolution and the author, Entry #1. Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether a revolution in the US is possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US. Entry #430 was the most recent “sense check.”
ENTRY #466: It is Thanksgiving weekend 2022. I started this blog entry over a week ago after having waited a couple of weeks after the mid-term elections. So, what I have I learned by waiting?
The results of the midterms were a bit of a relief, at least temporarily. While there has been a lot of ink about the results of the 2022 midterms, my take is rational Republicans and Democrats took charge and the American public should be generally pleased by the outcomes.
Not to say all is rosy. Even though Republicans gained far fewer seats in the House of Representatives than expected, rational voters should be concerned the incoming House leadership will be a triumvirate of whackos – McCarthy, Green, and Jordan. The far-right trio will generate a lot of noise in the House, but fortunately, all the efforts will end up being for show and of little consequence.
The brakes on the Trumpian trifecta will be by the Senate, where Democrats will retain at least 50 seats. In addition, based on voters’ expressions in the mid-terms, some Republicans from “purple” states are likely to join Democrats on key issues.
What may be most encouraging for the longer term is a majority of voters in more balanced purple states elected candidates committed to the Federal and state constitutions rather than the Trump autocracy. Georgia, for example, reelected Republican Brad Raffensperger to Secretary of State by a significant margin. Raffensperger, scorned by Trump, clearly drew some Democratic voters. The election in Georgia was not unique. Overall, most of the Trump-endorsed candidates were defeated.
As of this writing, there is one major congressional race to be decided — the Georgia senate race. The runoff is in early December between a highly educated preacher, who is currently filling out a term, Ralph Warnock, and a former Heisman Trophy winner, who played at Georgia, but never bothered to graduate, Herschel Walker.
Why Republicans nominated Walker to run is a mystery. While Mr. Walker certainly had a stellar college football career, his academic accomplishments are what one would generously call “limited.” As they say in the south, “bless his little heart.“
We shall see if Georgia voters continue to be reasonably rational and avoid electing a senator that can’t put two sentences together, Mr. Walker, or elect someone who is highly respected and understands voters, and how things need to work.
Where do the results of the mid-terms lead? From earlier blog entries, fair to say I think the 5th US Revolution, aka the Revenge Revolution, has started. The 5th Revolution started in earnest when Trump became president, and the cultural war has intensified since.
Much like the 4th US Revolution in the 1960s, early 1970s, this revolution will drag out for a while. And over time different factions will come to the fore to lead the insurrection.
Part of the revolution will continue to be mass killings. In the last two weeks there have been three high-profile mass shootings. One was at an LGBTQ nightclub in Colorado Springs where five people were killed and 18 or more injured.
That same weekend and what received almost no press was the arrest of two far-right extremists at Penn Station. The individuals were armed and wore body armor, as well as swastika patches. Apparently the two were headed to one or more synagogues in NYC.
The second high-profile shooting was at the University of Virginia where three football players were killed. The third incident was at a Walmart, also in Virginia, where six employees were killed by a manager.
Given the spate of incidents and the continued death threats against members of Congress, and other people in government – when did government doctors become the “enemy”? – what seems likely in the next few months is a successful assassination of a high-profile Democrat in Congress or a “liberal“ member of SCOTUS.
Even though Trump seems to be more and more marginalized by his own party and the right-wing media – Rupert Murdoch’s New York Post mocked his announcement about running in 2024 – Republicans in the House seem hell-bent on rallying Trump’s hard-core base, even if their actions pose a serious threat to democracy.
A surge of the far right is not a new phenomenon. In the 1930s, and even during World War II, far-right supporters of Nazi Germany included high-profile Americans – Charles Lindbergh and Henry Ford I, for example. In addition, at least 24 members of Congress were supporters of Nazi Germany.
The Nazi-supporting members of Congress were influential in thwarting investigations by the Department of Justice into who in Congress was involved in taking payments from Nazi Germany. (For a good introduction to the people involved and some activities of the far right in the late 1930s and early 1940s, listen to the podcast “Ultra,“ which is hosted by and partially written by Rachel Maddow. Put aside your politics and listen to some straight-up history that you should not want repeated.)
Another bit of optimism why the length of the 5th US Revolution might be tempered. After the far-right members of Congress were “outed” for their support of Nazi Germany, most were voted out of office in the next election. Some supporters never were endorsed by their party, even those with decades of service in Congress. My hope is the public in the US will awaken and vote the supporters of the insurrection out of office.
Defeat of the Trump MAGAts in the midterms might be an inkling of how fed up many voters are with members of Congress taking extreme positions, especially positions on the far right. A further indication of frustration may become apparent over the next 6-9 months as the public is exposed to the three-ring circus in the House led by ringmasters McCarthy, Jordan and Greene.
In parallel with the circus in the House, more information about Trump’s illegal activities will be released – from tax evasion, to…wanna bet…unreported income from foreign governments, especially governments in the Middle East and Russia. Don’t be surprised if there’s a charge of money laundering as well. Analyzing Trump is straightforward – just follow the money.
As far as presidential candidates for 2024, lots of emerging candidates on either side. However, way too early to guess who is likely to emerge. Historically many of the early front runners became “also rans” before the third or fourth primary. I’ll bet neither Trump nor Biden is the nominee.
Back to the next 6-9 months, keep your fingers crossed the amount of violence does not escalate. And keep your fingers crossed the DOJ vigorously pursues those involved with the insurrection of January 6, starting with the lead dog. More later. END ENTRY #466
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