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~ USA Headed for a 5th Revolution! Why?

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Monthly Archives: November 2018

#315 How Technology-Induced Disruptions Impact Societies (#4 in Series)

23 Friday Nov 2018

Posted by Jordan Abel in Economics, Gov't Policy, Societal Issues

≈ Leave a comment

Readers: this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution and author, Entry #1.  Most entries are formatted as conversations. Characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations.

Occasionally I do a “sense check.”  Auditing one’s own work is problematic but I try to be objective.  Entries #300 and #301 are the most recent standard “sense checks.”   Entries (#310-#313) broke from conversation format.  

Scene: Jordan’s office, Washington, DC.  Continuing conversation with Gelly, Jordan’s assistant.  Conversation began Entry #308.

Jordan: “OK, Gelly, got my coffee refill. Ready to talk more about how societies cope with technology-induced disruptions?”

Gelly: “Yes, but as a reminder, keep it simple, please. I’m just trying to understand the basics. Not trying to become a PhD candidate.”

Jordan: “Not to worry. Besides, I’m not a PhD.”

092615_2031_Characters7.gifGelly: “Maybe not but you have lots of study time…and a bunch of experience in the real world using economics stuff. Remember, KISS, okay?”

Jordan: “Let’s go back and look at how artificial intelligence (AI) is being used. Another example is your iPhone. Ask Siri a question.”

Gelly: “Siri has artificial intelligence?  And I thought she lived in my iPhone. OK, ‘Hey, Siri, what was the score of last week’s Michigan-Indiana football game?’”

MichiganJordan: “When Siri tells you Michigan beat Indiana, that’s a form of AI.”

Gelly: “I understand that part…I think. Siri hears the question, does a quick search of available databases, finds the answer, and then repeats the score. That easy enough to understand. Not saying easy to make happen, just easy to understand.”

Jordan: “You’re right, not easy to make happen. Now ask Siri to tell you a joke.”

Confused Clip ArtGelly: “How does she do that?”

Jordan: “When the question is more abstract, like ‘Tell me a joke,’ it’s the same procedure as looking for the score of the football game. However, for more abstract questions, sometimes the answer is reasonable and sometimes the answer is off the wall. Remember that AI is more effective when parameters of the task are defined. The Michigan-Indiana score is quite specific. So is picking up boxes, which we talked about earlier. Accuracy of AI also improves as more information is added to the database and algorithms refined.”

PhoneGelly: “So for Siri, Alexa and their siblings, they’re best at providing quick access to available information. At the same time, the working stiffs most affected by Siri and siblings are people employed to provide information. The example might seem a bit  dated but as a kid I remember being able to pick up the phone and have the operator get someone’s number, right?”

Jordan: “Right. Another example is society’s need for newspapers. For a couple of centuries newspapers were a primary source of information for all kinds of activities. People used to buy a paper for say just the sports section. That need has changed. Siri just told you the score of the Michigan-Indiana game. And, if you wanted, you could get real-time updates on your smart phone. Even if the game is not broadcast in your viewing area, you can ge an app on your phone to watch the highlights of the game and a bunch of other games as well.”

Legal ClerkGelly: “What about AI replacing some functions of what lawyers do, or at least law clerks do? Same with some portion of information gathered when visiting a doctor. Seems as if a lot of people could be replaced, or maybe have been replaced already by some form of Siri and siblings. What about using AI for tasks that are a lot more complicated than say picking up boxes or searching a database?”

Jordan: “You mean like people who used to paint cars or weld frames or even lay bricks being replaced by robots?”

Gelly: “Yes, but also tasks that seems even more complicated…like sewing clothes. You might not appreciate it but there are lots of steps in sewing. Lots of turning fabric and moving it back-and-forth. Making even simple clothes requires a lot of steps and precise hand-eye coordination. It’s not easy.”

Sewing MachineJordan: “Well, some clothes are already being made 100% or nearly 100% by machines. And over time, machines will make clothes that require more steps.”

Gelly: “That’s what I still don’t understand. What does happen to all those people in low-cost countries that are making clothes? If they lose their jobs, what happens? By the way, has anyone ever studies what happened to all those telephone operators, or guys that were painting cars?”

Jordan: “Your concern is spot on. What does happen? Unfortunately, the people who are most negatively affected by a disruptive technology, AI or otherwise, have little or no recourse when their job is eliminated. If they’re lucky, some get a handshake and severance pay but in developing countries, these people are SOL.”

Poor PersonGelly: “Another case of the working stiff getting screwed?”

Jordan: “The key for the country is whether the leadership begins adopting new technology and creating new jobs. If not, the country will continue to fall behind.”

Gelly: “How often do these technology disruptions happen? Seems like much faster today.”

Jordan: “Faster today…maybe. But we forget some of the objects or equipment we consider mundane today were really technology disruptions when introduced.”

Gelly: “You mean like the printing press, telegraph, the tractor and combine?”

Jordan: “Think about what was introduced between say 1850-1950. Electricity, cars, planes, trains, repeating rifles, motion pictures, radio, television…and that list doesn’t include any medical advances. So whether change is faster now is debatable. But the same problem exists – what do you do with people replaced by technology?”

Gelly: “OK, what does happen to society? I remember you talking one time about Argentina and the US having roughly the same GDP per capita in 1900. Then 100 or so years later GDP per capita in the US was almost 4x Argentina.  Argentina fell way behind.”

TurtleneckJordan: “Excellent example. I’m impressed you remembered.”

Gelly: “Thank you. Now, what happens in these countries?”

Jordan: “Remember when we first started to talk about the patterns of revolutions in the US?”

Gelly: “You found that there was a pattern of a revolution roughly every 50 years.”

Jordan: “The word ‘roughly’ is the key. Major changes in societal behavior do not follow some precise timeline. People who want to develop a more predictive model are always disappointed in how squishy the approach is.”

Gelly: “There seems to be a reasonable pattern for revolutions. Is there some kind of pattern or technology disruptions?”

Jordan: “There seems to be but the problem is trying to figure out if and how other factors affect the cycle.”

dude-with-questionGelly: “Now I’m starting to get even more confused.  What happened to KISS…keep it simple, stupid?”

Jordan: “Let me say after technology moves out of the lab and first becomes commercially viable, there’s a period of very rapid growth in companies and countries that use the technology. After a while the growth associated with the technology slows and, eventually, the technology and companies mature and decline.”

Gelly: “OK, a new technology is introduced, companies grows fast, and then decline. How long is the cycle?”

Jordan: “Without any of these other interruptions, 50 years more or less like a reasonable number. Keep in mind, if the data about revolutions are squishy, data for technology cycles are really squishy. I think there’s a pattern but the timeline for that pattern likely varies.”

Gelly: “Have you got a couple of examples. What about the auto industry? You know a lot about that? What about computers?”

Jordan: “What about another break, then we’ll talk more. I promise to try to keep it simple. As I said, the data and cycles are a bit messy.”

(Continued)

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#314 What’s Artificial Intelligence? What’s Going to Happen to Working Stiffs? (#3 in Series)

11 Sunday Nov 2018

Posted by Jordan Abel in Economics, Innovative Thinking: Ideas and Products, Societal Issues

≈ Leave a comment

Readers: this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution and author, Entry #1.  Most entries are formatted as conversations. Characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations.

Occasionally I do a “sense check.”  Auditing one’s own work is problematic but I try to be objective.  Entries #300 and #301 are the most recent standard “sense checks.”   The previous four entries (#310-#313) broke from conversation format.  Characters return with this entry.

Scene: Jordan’s office, Washington, DC.  Continuing conversation with Gelly, Jordan’s assistant.  Conversation began Entry #308.

092615_2031_Characters7.gifGelly: “The last lesson we had on economics, professor, was about how tariffs usually don’t work. As a result, when tariffs are imposed it’s often the working stiff that ends up…well, getting screwed.”

Jordan: “Where’s this conversation headed? And, please, no more of the ’professor’ stuff.”

Gelly: “Alright, no more name calling. But I would like to learn more about AI.”

Jordan: “For AI, you talking about ‘artificial intelligence’ or ‘artificial insemination’?”

Gelly: “You know which one – artificial intelligence.”

Trump DunceJordan: “You mean artificial intelligence…like Donald Trump’s intelligence — artificial?”

Gelly: “Get serious, please. A lot of people are talking about AI and I really don’t know what it means or how it works.”

Jordan: “First, I’m not an expert on AI and don’t know exactly where it’s headed. But I’m not sure anyone does. What’s even more confusing is the term ‘artificial intelligence’ gets applied to a broad range of what seem to be not overly sophisticated software applications.”

dude-with-questionGelly: “I’m also confused about what I hear people calling ‘machine learning.’ Is machine learning the same as artificial intelligence or part of artificial intelligence?”

Jordan: “Let’s try to simplify the entire category. I know some techies would probably go apoplectic if they heard this explanation but we’re not trying to prepare you to write a thesis at MIT. To get started, think about AI as using more advanced software. And there are a lot of applications. At the same time, the software is designed for…”

Gelly: “Let me try, please. Rather than software for say Excel or Word, the software for AI is a designed so some kind of machine can learn to do things?”

Jordan: “That’s a good way to think about it.”

Gelly: “But does the machine end up writing its own software program? How does it learn?”

Hammer NailJordan: “Think about how you learn to do some task. Could be learning to use a computer. Maybe something easier like hammering a nail. What’s the first step?”

Gelly: “Usually you watch somebody do it.”

Jordan: “Then what?”

Gelly: “When you first try you’re usually not very good at it.  So you have to practice and practice. If you’re lucky there’s a teacher around to help correct your mistakes. Eventually you get better and do whatever it is on your own.”

Jordan: “You just described how a machine learns.”

Boxes in WarehouseGelly: “So, if somebody shows the machine how to say pick a box off a shelf and load it on a cart, then the machine can learn to do that?”

Jordan: “Basically, yes. The person demonstrates to the machine how to find the box, pick up the box and load it on the cart. The machine records the movements — say with some kind of camera.  Then the machine tries to repeat the movements.”

Gelly: “What if the machine makes a mistake?”

albert-einsteinJordan: “Good question. That’s what different about today’s machine learning and attempts in the past.  In the past, the limitations were software and computer processing. To get the machine…a robot…to do something required a lot of very precise programming. Plus the capacity of machine ‘memory chips’ was limited…intellectually challenged…so the robot couldn’t really do much.  Today’s chips are like Albert Einstein compared to earlier chips.”

Gelly: “I know computer chips have gotten more powerful. But can a machine learn a more complicated task right away?  How would it do that?”

Jordan: “The power of the computer chips is a key.  Let’s say the machine response is not quite right.  The person can do another demonstration and the machine can correct itself.  But let’s say the task is a lot more complicated.  The demonstration can be broken into smaller steps.  The machine then learns each step.”

SuccessGelly: “If I understand correctly, by learning a set of small steps, the machine can adapt  if some part of the task changes.  For example, if the first box is small and the next box is larger, the machine could pick-up either size box and load on the cart.  I understand there’s some range of sizes but, as long as the machine has been taught to pick up a bunch of different size boxes, the machine can pick up any size box within that range.  Right?”

Jordan: “You got it.”

Gelly: “What else can these machines be taught to do?”

drone-manJordan: “That’s the question that seems to be scaring a lot of people. As computer chips continue to be more powerful, the capabilities of the machines will continue to increase.”

Gelly: “Guess the machines are like children. As they get older, they can learn to do more things. But people seem to reach a limit as to what they can learn and do. What about machines? Will they reach a limit or will they keep on learning…and maybe outsmart humans?”

Jordan: “No one knows for sure. When I hear that question, I go back to a fundamental of learning, whether learning for humans or machines, but especially machines.”

Gelly: “You mean GIGO – garbage in, garbage out?”

Jordan: “Exactly. People need to think about what machines are being trained to do. And then think about what happens if the machines turn against the trainers.”

Gelly: “If we go back to machines picking boxes in a warehouse, what kind of bad things can the little robot do? At most, some people lose their jobs. Not nice for the people but not a societal crisis. If we talk about some sort of robot war machine that seems like a lot more risk.”

TurtleneckJordan: “That’s the point. War machines are a different story. While it seems like a bit of science fiction, very sophisticated war robots could decide to turn around and attack.”

Gelly: “Now, that does seem scary.”

Jordan: “A rogue war robot…or even worse an army of rogue robots…is still an abstract idea. Because the idea of a rogue war machine is still abstract and not yet a reality is why we need to start thinking through what we’re training machines to do…and start now.”

Gelly: “Back to the more mundane. Seems as if machines can replace lots of people, even some who are considered highly skilled.”

Jordan: “Yes these robots can and probably should replace some of these people.”

Gelly: “What does society do with all the people who end up losing their jobs to machines? If a bunch of people lose jobs, won’t that negatively affect the economy?”

Steam Engine Old RenderingJordan: “Yes, but countries having to manage the transition from an existing to a disruptive technology is not something new. Countries worldwide have faced this very problem for centuries — what about the introduction of steam engines, planes, cars, telephones, internet…and the list goes on. Some countries have managed the transitions well, other not so well.”

Gelly: “Seems to me the United States has managed well so far. But I’m not so sure going forward. Trump’s whole theme seemed to be attracting people who had been or likely to be negatively affected by new technology. Then after Trump, we had another upheaval with the Revenge Revolution. How do we manage going forward? Now, I’m getting nervous.”

Jordan: “Hold on, Gelly. Let me go get a coffee refill, then we’ll talk. Or maybe that coffee robot could get a coffee refill for me.”

Gelly: “Funny, Jordan. But I really am concerned.”

 

#313 “I’m So Proud of My Son. He Lies, Cheats, Steals and Discriminates.”

03 Saturday Nov 2018

Posted by Jordan Abel in Causes of the Revolution, Education Issues, Societal Issues, Stupid Is as Stupid Does

≈ Leave a comment

Readers: this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution and author, Entry #1.  Most entries are formatted as conversations. Characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations.

Occasionally I do a “sense check.”  Auditing one’s own work is problematic but I try to be objective.  Entries #300 and #301 are the most recent standard “sense checks.”   The last four entries, including this one, break from the conversation format.  Characters will return soon.

What a proud moment for any parent. Being able to proclaim, “I’m so proud of my son. He lies cheats, steals, and discriminates. Exactly what I wanted him to be.”

Proud FatherIf you’re a parent, or have a brother or sister, wouldn’t you be proud to be able to make such a proclamation? Well, you can make such a proclamation if you support Donald Trump and his Republican enablers.

Put aside your political party and look at the behavior. Do you want your child or sibling to be known for lying, cheating, stealing and discriminating?

If you said “yes” unequivocally or said “yes” but included a list of caveats in your answer – such as “You need to look at what Trump has accomplished” – then read no farther. You are someone who is willing to let the ends justify the means, no matter how unethical the means and no matter how questionable the ends.

Ten CommandmentsIf you’re religious…if not pretend you are for a few minutes…then show me where in your religion is a list of basic tenets indicating acceptable behavior includes lying, cheating, stealing, discriminating. Even if your religion “forgives” such behavior, doesn’t the person being forgiven need to stop such behavior first?

Trump has not stopped lying, cheating, stealing or discriminating. So why do you support him? (If you think Trump doesn’t steal, dig deeper into how Trump and family have repeatedly cheated on income taxes due. His cheating, by the way, means you are paying more in taxes.)

ConstitutionLet’s put religion aside and talk instead about the oath of office taken by the president. The oath, which is part of the US Constitution, reads, “I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my Ability, preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution of the United States.”

Notice the oath includes “…preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.” So, why do you support someone who thinks he has the power to change the Constitution at will — such as the 14th Amendment?

We know Trump didn’t attend civics classes and certainly has never read the Constitution. But if you’re a Trump supporters who made it past 6th grade, then you should know the way to modify the Constitution is not some half-assed Executive Order but ratification by 2/3 (67%) of the House and Senate, then ratification by 3/4 (75%) of the states.

Gee, you say, don’t be so picky. Its election time. Everyone distorts the truth. Quit being such an elitist liberal.

PinocchioNo, I won’t get over it…and neither should you. By latest count, Trump has been lying at least 30 times a day with the rate of lies increasing with each day closer to the mid-term elections. And those 30 lies per day are the ones known to the public. How many more lies does he tell inside the White House? Trump supporters – would you tolerate your child lying 30 times a day?

Fellow Americans, like it or not, the president’s words and actions matter. The president’s words and actions help set the tone of behavior and dialogue for the country. Think of the president having the same type influence on many people as a parent’s behavior influences a child.

If you think behavior does not matter, look at families where one or both parents is abusive and/or lies constantly and/or steals and/or discriminates. How does such a toxic atmosphere affect the behavior of children? Compare the long-term behavior and success of children raised in such a toxic environment to children raised in more stable environment where parental behavior is open, honest and encouraging. Which atmosphere do you want your children or grandchildren to be raised in?

Trumpsters, forget brining up examples of people who end up thriving despite a toxic home environment as a child. Such individuals should be praised for their success…but they are outliers, the exceptions. For every one who has been able to overcome the effects of a toxic environment, there are probably 100 who, unfortunately, have not.

Voting LineMaking a choice about what type behavior you want from the president and other political leaders is not difficult. Do you want someone leading the country and/or representing you who lies, cheats, steals, and discriminates? If you would be proud of such behavior by your child or sibling, then Trump and his gang of enablers are for you.

Just keep in mind continuing to support such unethical behavior by Trump is a sure-fire path to having the Revenge Revolution sooner than later…and a sure-fire path to making the Revenge Revolution more intense. Trumpsters, it’s your call.

 

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