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~ USA Headed for a 5th Revolution! Why?

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Category Archives: Education Issues

#461 Students Should Be Forced to Repay Loans Because…Well, Just Because!

09 Friday Sep 2022

Posted by Jordan Abel in Back Asswards Thinking, Common Sense Policies, Education Issues, Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Welcome to a discussion about the upcoming 5th Revolution in the US, which I’ve titled the “Revenge Revolution.” For more about the Revenge Revolution and the author, Entry #1.  Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether a revolution in the US is possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US. Entry #430 was the most recent “sense check.”

BEGIN ENTRY #461. President Biden has proposed a program to reduce outstanding student loans by up to $20,000 for many middle- and limited-income families. Surprise, surprise, this proposal has many Republicans up in arms.

Before addressing the merits of such a program, let’s take a look at what’s available to companies and individuals who have too much debt relative to income, other than debt from student loans.

Companies with too much debt compared to income have an option called Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The cause of why the company has too much debt can range from bad luck to bad economic times to bad management, which is usually the cause.

While the cause of too much debt might influence whether existing management remains in place, the cause does not prevent the company from filing for debt relief under Chapter 11.

One company that seems to be quite familiar with Cha11 is the Trump Organization.  Trump has filed for Cha11 SIX (6) times.  For Republicans opposed to forgiving some portion of student debt, Trump’s bankruptcies somehow must be different.  Think about it. How could a business genius like Trump be forced into bankruptcy? Someone else must have been the cause since the Donald never makes mistakes. 

OK, I’ll stop the sarcasm. But the facts are straightforward – companies and individuals can file for bankruptcy, have debts significantly reduced or eliminated and start fresh.  Companies and individuals get debt relief even if an individual or management has made incredibly unsound financial decisions.  There’s only one exception – student loans are not relieved/eliminated under the bankruptcy laws.

That’s right. Student debt cannot be reduced or eliminated by bankruptcy.  Even if all other personal debts are excused, student debt remains.  Further, interest rates charged by the lender – usually a 3rd party and not the government – are often substantially above market rates.  Student borrowers have little or no recourse against unscrupulous lenders.

Who are the major players attracting prospective students to take on debt for “education“?  I’m sure you’re shocked but often the most aggressive are for-profit “universities.” Some examples include ITT, University of Phoenix and, of course, Trump University, which is now defunct after a being forced to close for fraud.  There are other for-profits as well – cosmetology schools, for example. 

The for-profits are not alone.  Some not-for-profit academic institutions have aggressively pursued students needing loans.  However, for-profit universities have a major incentive to attract prospective students with limited knowledge and/or marketable skills, keep students in school as long as possible and provide as little staff support as possible.  And why not? Students can increase ROI and the risk to the for-profit university is minimal. Once a student takes on debt, the for-profit university has created an annuity.

In what has become true Republican fashion, discussions about the merits/drawbacks of student debt reduction program (not complete debt relief for most), have been directed at blaming the student for the entire problem.  After all, the student signed the paperwork.

Is the student to blame? Partially but blaming the student for the entire problem is like blaming someone for a car accident who has never been taught to drive.

If we, societal we, want to retain Chapter 11 bankruptcy for businesses in Chapter 7 for bankruptcy for individuals to relieve debt, then we need to make some provision to relieve a portion of student debt. END ENTRY #461

Other Topics. Interested in more info about climate change, what’s required to electrify a fleet of cars/trucks, what it was like to work day-to-day with Lee Iacocca and an array of other topics? Visit another page of this website, https://usrevolution5.com/jrd-thought-comments/

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#440: Adding a Question When Discussing Black Suppression

27 Sunday Feb 2022

Posted by Jordan Abel in Education Issues, Societal Issues, Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Welcome to a discussion about the upcoming 5th Revolution in the US, which I’ve titled the “Revenge Revolution.” For more about the Revenge Revolution and the author, Entry #1.  Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether a revolution in the US is possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US. Entry #430 was the most recent “sense check.”

ENTRY #440 BEGINS: We are near the end of February, which some years ago, was designated as Black History Month. A major event during this month was the nomination of Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson as the next associate justice of the Supreme Court and, if confirmed, would be the first black woman to serve on SCOTUS.

Judge Jackson has stellar educational and work credentials. Two other possible nominees, also black women, are also highly educated and qualified.

During February, while the speculation about the SCOTUS nominee received considerable media attention, there was also frequent mention from various high-profile blacks that we, societal we, need to have an honest conversation about the history of how blacks have been suppressed over time.

I agree that historical suppression of blacks is a fair topic. I also think the conversation about the effects of suppression needs to include a simple question. “Why has every other ethnic group in the US been able to move up the economic ladder within two to three generations?”

Before claiming these other ethnic groups weren’t discriminated against or suppressed like blacks, one needs to read the history books. In the late 19th and early 20th centuries, there were signs reading, “No Irish or dogs allowed.”  Similar signs were put up about Italians and various other groups, some far more recently.

Targeting non-black groups continues today.  The march in Charlottesville, VA during the early days of the Trump administration, in addition to targeting blacks, targeted Jews.  In the past couple of years, several synagogues have been attacked and a number of people killed.

So back to the question that needs to be discussed, “why have blacks continued at the bottom rung of the economic ladder for so long?”  Yes, I understand the question is politically incorrect and may even be offensive to some people.  However, without addressing such difficult questions, progress becomes impossible.

Over time education has proved to be a key for upward mobility.  Education does not mean everyone should or needs to go to college.  Technical training is an ideal route for many. 

The discussion also needs to ask whether society is providing the right kind of support for blacks.  While modern school buildings and access to an iPad are nice, education only works when the individual has the desire to learn and is willing to commit time and effort to learning.

Without that desire and commitment at the individual level, educational efforts are as effective as pushing on a string.   No matter how much energy is expended pushing on the string, not much happens at the other end.

As demonstrated repeatedly by other ethnic groups, even with a desire for and a commitment to education, significant economic mobility will take several generations.  For blacks specifically, the Emancipation Proclamation was about 160 years ago, or 6-7 generations. There have been three generations since the SCOTUS decision of Brown v. Board of Education, which overturned the separate but equal clause from Plessy v. Ferguson.

A controversial idea.  Maybe it is time to revisit the ideas of Plessy, but this time with fair implementation.  For many black families, there has been limited exposure to post-secondary education.  The transition from high school to college is difficult for most every student.  And with fewer family experiences to draw on, the transition for black students might be even more difficult.

Is it time that we, back to societal we, consider beefing up resources provided to various historically black colleges and universities?  HBCU’s could be an ideal environment for many black students to achieve the transition between high school and college.   HCBU’s have produced a plethora of highly successful graduates, including VP of the US, Kamala Harris. 

The scope of education at HCBU’s could be expanded to include more courses in the skilled trades.  As the economy becomes more reliant on digital-based equipment, the education for skilled trades needs to increase the amount of technical knowledge in addition to teaching the skills of the particular trade. 

To begin to grasp how much more sophisticated the equipment is than 10-years ago and certainly 20-years ago, one only needs to look at a recent episode of “This Old House.”  Even more striking is the difference in the use of digital-driven equipment in manufacturing.    

The technical training at HBCU’s could be complemented with business training.  Not everyone needs to earn an MBA, but many students would be well served by classes in the fundamentals of operating a business — accounting, budgeting, cash flow management, etc. 

The combination of some traditional education and technical training could help HCBU’s become a major source of highly skilled graduates for many industries.  Some HCBU’s could add a co-op program that would allow students with limited resources to earn enough money for tuition and living expense while also getting an education and real-world experience. 

These ideas do not eliminate the reality of the effects of suppression of blacks.  The ideas do help change the focus toward the future.  Rather than driving while only looking in the rearview mirror, blacks can start driving while looking through the windshield and occasionally glancing in the rearview mirror.  Doing so will speed up the trip away from the bottom rung of the economic ladder.   

Other Topics. Interested in more info about climate change, what’s required to electrify a fleet of cars/trucks, what it was like to work day-to-day with Lee Iacocca and an array of other topics? Visit another page of this website, https://usrevolution5.com/jrd-thought-comments/  

#399. The Donald and Charlie. Two Peas from the Same Pod. (Part #4)

17 Thursday Dec 2020

Posted by Jordan Abel in Back Asswards Thinking, Causes of the Revolution, Education Issues, Post Trump Presidency, Societal Issues, Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Readers: some of the dialogue in this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Entries addressing events in the the future assume there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.

Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether in the next few years, a revolution in the US is still possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Most recent sense check, ENTRY #387.   Next Sense Check will be Entry #400.

Some of the entries are part of a series.  Several series are available as easy-to-read booklets for download:

  • Coming technology tsunami and the implications for the US, Tech Tsunami Booklet with Supplement
  • Trump Supporters Brainwashed? A series discussing why Republics have abandoned basic principals, Are Trump Republicans Brainwashed 2020Q1  Related article published 10/07/20.  Op-Ed piece in NYT about how people bend their thinking to justify beliefs.  Example is Fox News Information about Covid-19, 20 10 07 Fox News Still in Coronavirus Bubble aka Brainwashed
  • Who took out the Donald?  Who/what groups are most likely to “take out” Trump? The booklet was written early in the Trump administration but still worth a read. Who Took Out the Donald Entries with Update
  • Revenge Revolution — description of what form the revolution might take, 20 01 07 Start of Revolution
  • Working with Lee Iacocca after he left Chrysler, 2019Q3 Iacocca Personal Observations. 
  • GM EV1 — behind-the-scenes events affecting development and introduction of the GM EV1, the first modern electric vehicle. 2020Q1 GM EV-1 Story Behind the Story Booklet

Beginning #378 the entries began focusing on a post-Trump administration and a post-Coronavirus world.  We’re headed to a post-Trump world and post-COVID world, even if a ways away.  The premise of a 5th US revolution in the 2020’s decade has not changed.  Comments and suggestions welcome.

ENTRY #399: The past few entries have attempted to understand the cause of and whether to attempt to solve cognitive dissonance among many Trump supporters. The issue is not about different political philosophies. A democratic society should have at least two strong political parties. The difference is trying to understand why so many Trump supporters are willing to sacrifice the basic tenets of democracy for a known wannabe autocrat.

What does Trump offer that has created a cult-like following? When one steps back and analyzes the data, the Trump cult is getting nothing in return for following the Donald. So why follow the Donald? What is the appeal; what is the quid-pro-quo?

Despite no obvious benefit, at least to rational thinkers, why does the Trump cult do whatever the Donald wants? The Trump cult supports his actions even when the actions are contrary to the best interest of the followers.

It’s as if Trump is like the Great Oz, “I say the coronavirus is like the flu. You don’t need a mask.” And the followers don’t wear a mask. Or the Great Oz says, “Send money to me to help fight a stolen election.” And the cult sends money. Or the Great Oz says “Support a gigantic tax break for the wealthy and the benefits will trickle down to you.” And the cult believes in voodoo economics, even though the Federal deficit has ballooned and the children/grandchildren of the cult will be paying for the wealth transfer.

In some ways Trump reminds me of Charlie. Reminds me not of Charlie Tuna, although Trump’s body profile looks similar. But reminds me of Charlie Manson. Often times Trump seems as maniacal and crazy as Manson.

If you think the comparison to Manson is extreme, consider Trump’s actions to suppress efforts to control the pandemic. Also, consider the claims about the White House intentionally distorting info from CDC re the severity of the virus. Now, count the number of unnecessary deaths by Trump’s actions and compare the number to Charlie’s death toll. Still think the comparison is unfair?

As far as members of the cult, at least the women who hung around Charlie Manson, got satisfied sexually. Those who hang around Trump only get screwed economically.

How does the US society begin to address and re-educate members of the Trump cult? I don’t think we should waste our time. The cult members have been brainwashed and the major protagonist will fade away by late spring 2021. Unfortunately, the essence of Trump’s message may not fade as quickly.

Post inauguration, Trump will act like many bullies when their perceived power is taken away. He will melt like the Wicked Witch of the West. Oh, Trump might hold a few pep rallies and generate some noise, but nothing of any lasting consequence.

If Trump understands one thing well, that one thing is how to take other people’s money. When he was in debt for the failing casinos, he declared bankruptcy and walked away leaving the banks with the debt. Since no US-based bank would deal with him, beginning in the late 1990’s, early 2000’s Trump turned to sources outside the US to fund purchases of golf courses and hotel properties. While in Charlotte, NC to visit one of the Trump golf courses, Don, Jr. bragged that the Russians had become Trump’s primary funding source. And you still wonder why Trump’s nice to the Russians?

A recent example of using other people’s money was when it became clear that he was likely to lose the re-election to Biden. At that point Trump formed a PAC that was promoted to help him get re-elected in 2024 and to help finance the legal cost of lawsuits associated with what Trump kept promoting as the “rigged” 2020 presidential election.

The reality is the PAC is Trump’s new piggybank. Donors likely didn’t read the fine print. After a small percentage is allocated to the RNC and some for legal costs for the frivolous lawsuits, Trump gets to keep the rest. The money will stay in the PAC although Trump will control the disbursement of funds, including use for personal expenses. Keeping funds in the PAC should protect the PAC from creditors, who will likely force Trump into bankruptcy when the $400+ million loans on his properties come due in the next few years.

Whether the PAC funds can be protected from judgements for fraud is problematic. The State of New York has been investigating the Trump organization and Trump personally for tax fraud and possibly other crimes. The investigations may lead to indictments soon after Trump leaves office. State crimes are not overridden by a presidential pardon. Oops.

To convince cult members he will keep promoting his message, Trump has claimed he will create a new cable channel once out of office. The claim seems to be another ploy to attract funds from the ne’er-do-well supporters, who can least afford it. Trump will need an outlet since most credible media, save a couple of bloviators on Fox, have started focusing on the Biden administration’s plans to address mounting economic and social problems.

Like Charlie Manson’s followers, some of Trump’s supporters will stay in the cult no matter the circumstances or the evidence against the cult leader. Most followers, however, soon will migrate to another fringe Republican candidate who probably will be more charismatic than Trump but spew the same BS.

The biggest problem for the Republican Party is Trump’s legacy and how to recover from it. The damage to the credibility of government and the democracy caused by Trump’s corruption, cronyism and complacency has been significant.

For the Republican Party in particular, how long will a substantial portion of the Party believe the dis-information and fantasies, whether promoted by Trump or a follow-on Trump? How can the Republican Party put forth a credible platform of governance beyond “Just Say No” to whatever Biden or Democrats propose? Without a more reasonable platform the appeal of the Republican Party will continue to shrink.

A shrinking and ineffective Republican Party could become a major contributor to a 5th US Revolution, aka the Revenge Revolution? On the optimistic side it will take 10-15 years to repair the damage to the Federal agencies and the credibility of the government caused by Trump and complicit Republican Senators, Representative and state governors. During the period of repair, the chances of unrest increase. Trump cultists could be persuaded to revolt, whether or not Trump is still around.

For many years a small group in Texas has promoted secession. That group and the Trump cultists appear to share many of the same characteristics. The secession movement could move beyond the obvious candidates of former Confederate states. A broader secession movement could find support in the upper Midwest – for example in the northern part of Lower Michigan – as well as a number of other Midwest and mountain states.

The secession movement could grow even stronger if Biden steps down after one term, which seems likely, and Kamala Harris then is elected president. Given the harassment and death threats by Trump loyalists of the female elected officials, especially in Michigan – Governor, Attorney General and Secretary of State – the Trump loyalists likely would consider stronger action against a Black female president.

As noted periodically in these entries, a well-coordinated widespread guerilla-warfare like attack could cause significant damage to property and result in a number of deaths. Think of Charlie Mason’s Helter-Skelter attack but on a much larger scale. The disruption would create significant angst among the general population. Once the guerilla warfare started, unless the federal and state governments quickly quelled the attacks, the country could start to spin out of control.

More about the possible Revenge Revolution in entry #400.

#398 Overcoming Cognitive Dissonance of Trump Supporters (Part 3)

06 Sunday Dec 2020

Posted by Jordan Abel in Causes of the Revolution, Education Issues, Post Trump Presidency, Societal Issues, Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Readers: some of the dialogue in this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Entries addressing events in the the future assume there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.

Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether in the next few years, a revolution in the US is still possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Most recent sense check, ENTRY #387.  

Some of the entries are part of a series.  Several series are available as easy-to-read booklets for download:

  • Coming technology tsunami and the implications for the US, Tech Tsunami Booklet with Supplement
  • Trump Supporters Brainwashed? A series discussing why Republics have abandoned basic principals, Are Trump Republicans Brainwashed 2020Q1  Related article published 10/07/20.  Op-Ed piece in NYT about how people bend their thinking to justify beliefs.  Example is Fox News Information about Covid-19, 20 10 07 Fox News Still in Coronavirus Bubble aka Brainwashed
  • Who took out the Donald?  Who/what groups are most likely to “take out” Trump? The booklet was written early in the Trump administration but still worth a read. Who Took Out the Donald Entries with Update
  • Revenge Revolution — description of what form the revolution might take, 20 01 07 Start of Revolution
  • Working with Lee Iacocca after he left Chrysler, 2019Q3 Iacocca Personal Observations. 
  • GM EV1 — behind-the-scenes events affecting development and introduction of the GM EV1, the first modern electric vehicle. 2020Q1 GM EV-1 Story Behind the Story Booklet

Beginning #378 the entries began focusing on a post-Trump administration and a post-Coronavirus world.  We’re headed to a post-Trump world and post-COVID seems possible, if a ways away.  The premise of a 5th US revolution in the 2020’s decade has not changed.  Comments and suggestions welcome.

ENTRY #398: The previous two entries discussed the seeming inability to connect two dots of 1/3 or more of the American voting population. Well, let’s make that the inability to understand one dot.

I vowed that entries would look past the election and Trump’s absurd claims of voter fraud. But what I cannot look past is the continued cognitive dissonance of Trump supporters.

Trump is the quintessential con man.  How many honest real estate developers do you know? The con man recently formed a PAC, with funds supposedly to be used for: (i) legal fees to fight fraud in the 2020 election; (ii) his re-election bid in 2024. To help fund the PAC, Trump sent a series of emails and letters to likely supporters. Since the election, roughly one month ago, how much has Trump raised for the PAC, mostly small donors? Not $10 million, not $50 million, not a $100 million but $200 million plus and counting.

What are the PAC guidelines for using the funds? A portion goes to the RNC, maybe 25%. The rest can be used by the Donald however he wants, including paying himself a salary, using funds for living expenses, legal fees, clothing, haircuts or whatever.  Folks, the con man is not going to run again.

Then, why did he start the PAC?  Dollars to donuts the PAC money is legally separated from Trump’s personal funds. If so, Trump created a separate source of money protected from future lawsuits against him.

In the next 12-18 months the Trump organization is faced with repayment of loans apparently totaling more than $400 million.  Many of the Trump properties were bleeding cash before the pandemic.  Likely worse now.  The problem for Trump is he personally guaranteed most, if not all the loans.  Thus, whatever personal assets he owns are at risk.

Will Trump pay?  Of course not.  He never pays his debts.  When the loans are due, he’ll claim the lenders are out to get him and his only way to get even with the deceitful creditors is to declare bankruptcy…yet again.  Although in bankruptcy he might lose rights to various properties, what does he care?  He’ll walk away without debt.  He also won’t be broke since he’ll have access to $150 million of PAC money. 

If he declares BK, won’t he lose Mar-a-Lago?  Probably not.  Under Florida law one’s “homestead property” is considered an asset exempt from the bankruptcy trustee.  Now you understand why he moved to Florida from New York, which has no protection provision.  So, with all the financial shenanigans, Trump still walks away with no debt, Mar-a-Lago and $150 million.  By any standard a very good con.

In the end, who got conned? Lenders, although most were foreign, especially Russian, and may have been repaid in other ways while Trump was president, and his supporters, many of whom have very limited funds.  (Take heart.  The State of New York seems to be readying a tax fraud case against Trump and family.  Assets exempt under BK law may not be exempt under a tax fraud case.)

Why can’t people understand the obvious? Forget the part about declaring bankruptcy, and just consider Trump asking for money.  He’s claiming the money would be used for his re-election bid. Such a claim should be enough by any standard to raise questions about his credibility.  Plus, there was ample media coverage, save possibly Fox, that most of the contribution to the PAC could be used any way Trump so desired, including personal expenses.

In the US, there have always been con men.  Recall part of Lincoln’s quote, “…you can fool some of the people all the time…”  With so many people are falling for the con, including supposedly educated people, how are we as a society to avoid such a huge con in the future?

In the last entry I suggested children could be taught to think critically by expanding educational focus from STEM to SMELT – Science, Mathematics, Engineering, Liberal-arts, and Technology. SMELT classes would start as early as possible, including kindergarten.

What do we do to educate adults during the years when children are in school and learning to think critically?  What about the adults who cannot understand one dot, let alone connect two or three dots? I confess, I don’t have any concrete suggestions.  Adults are not required to go back to school. As long as no laws are broken, adults are pretty much free to do whatever they want.

With these adults, logic does not seem to work. If you haven’t done so, try and reason with a Trump supporter. Evidence and facts do not matter. Even though the very same behavior would be excoriated if Trump were a Democrat, his followers fully support Trump’s actions as a Republican.

An alternative approach to education is to form another party with values similar to the pre-Trump Republican Party. Maybe values of a pre-Reagan Republican Party.  Reagan began the mantra that government is the problem, not the solution.  Imagine if Reagan had been president during WWII. 

The new Republican Party would appeal to disenfranchised Republicans, many independents and even some Democrats.  A concern is how long before the new party can became a formidable political force.  My initial guess was 4-5 presidential elections.  Then on second thought, I changed to maybe 1-2 presidential elections if the new party were formed around the Lincoln Project. 

A democracy needs at least two strong parties. Right now the US has a cult party, aka Trump Republicans, and a Democratic Party, which has a large umbrella covering a mix of ideas and some anti-Trump Republicans. A new “Lincoln Party” would be a draw for moderates, whether leaning left or right.

Is there a different way to break the Trump cult? The Biden/Harris administration’s commitment to work with both parties will be a start. My cynical side suggests Trump supporters are so brainwashed the Biden/Harris approach will fall on deaf ears.

People who belong to cults are not logical. Even acknowledging Biden as a legitimate president would require the Trump cult to admit a mistake. Since Trump never admits a mistake, why should the Trump cult members admit a mistake?

Okay, enough for this entry. A new “Lincoln Party” seems to be a reasonable solution to rebuilding a democracy that has two viable parties. If you have another idea, please let me know. I’m all ears.

#397 Those Who Smelt It Can Think Critically. (Need to Rebuild the Education System Part 2)

29 Sunday Nov 2020

Posted by Jordan Abel in Education Issues, Societal Issues, Stupid Is as Stupid Does, Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Readers: some of the dialogue in this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Entries addressing events in the the future assume there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.

Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether in the next few years, a revolution in the US is still possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Most recent sense check, ENTRY #387.  

Some of the entries are part of a series.  Several series are available as easy-to-read booklets for download:

  • Coming technology tsunami and the implications for the US, Tech Tsunami Booklet with Supplement
  • Trump Supporters Brainwashed? A series discussing why Republics have abandoned basic principals, Are Trump Republicans Brainwashed 2020Q1  Related article published 10/07/20.  Op-Ed piece in NYT about how people bend their thinking to justify beliefs.  Example is Fox News Information about Covid-19, 20 10 07 Fox News Still in Coronavirus Bubble aka Brainwashed
  • Who took out the Donald?  Who/what groups are most likely to “take out” Trump? The booklet was written early in the Trump administration but still worth a read. Who Took Out the Donald Entries with Update
  • Revenge Revolution — description of what form the revolution might take, 20 01 07 Start of Revolution
  • Working with Lee Iacocca after he left Chrysler, 2019Q3 Iacocca Personal Observations. 
  • GM EV1 — behind-the-scenes events affecting development and introduction of the GM EV1, the first modern electric vehicle. 2020Q1 GM EV-1 Story Behind the Story Booklet

Beginning #378 the entries began focusing on a post-Trump administration and a post-Coronavirus world.  We’re headed to a post-Trump world and post-COVID seems possible, if a ways away.  The premise of a 5th US revolution in the 2020’s decade has not changed.  Comments and suggestions welcome.

ENTRY #397 continues the discussion on cognitive dissonance.

A recent example of a high-profile educated person being unable to connect two dots was the remarks by Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito at a Federalist Society meeting (11/12/20). Justice Alito, a supporter of individual rights, stated that while the coronavirus pandemic was a major health issue, government had no right to mandate wearing masks.  (20 11 14 NYT Alito Speech to Federalist Society)

Alito, apparently was an epidemiologist before turning lawyer, offered no plan to control the spread of the virus. Sam, in case you haven’t heard, there is no vaccine yet available and the country continues to set records for infections. And where are the most infections per capita?  Yes, in counties and states that voted for Trump.

Based on your remarks, apparently you are willing to let people decide, “I don’t need no stinking face mask ‘cause I ain’t infected.”   Please tell your dude friend he might be infected even though his symptoms are not yet severe. And, if infected, he’s also infecting people all around.   But, hey, that’s okay, right?  People need to be free to do whatever they want.

Here we are a couple of weeks after Alito’s inane remarks at the Federalist Society.  Since his remarks claiming masks were an intrusion on individual rights, the number of coronavirus cases has more than doubled to 200,000+ new cases per day with total cases 13,000,000+, 1/3 of those in the past month.

Justice Alito, I’m glad you weren’t around during World War II when people on the coasts were forced to block out lights during the evening to avoid giving the enemy easy targets to bomb. Glad you weren’t around when the EPA decided that lead in gasoline was dangerous and retarding mental development in children.  Glad you weren’t involved in the FAA decision banning passengers from carrying loaded concealed weapons on airplanes.  Those were bad decisions because some folks lost individual rights, right?

Further, according to the “New York Times” article about your remarks, you were insulted that President Obama mentioned during a State of the Union address that the Citizens United decision by SCOTUS would lead to unlimited spending on elections.  And who was correct?  Obama, but you didn’t need to be a constitutional lawyer to figure it out.

On the eve of Thanksgiving, in a decision released just before midnight, Alito apparently convinced four other SCOTUS justices that connecting two dots was only for liberals.  The court ruled 5-4, with the three Trump appointees voting as a block, that state governors did not have a right to limit the number of people gathered in one location, with special emphasis on allowing religious institutions to conduct services as they saw fit. 

Let me get this logic straight.  The Trump administration specifically mandated that the management of the pandemic was the responsibility of the governors.  Yes, the governors must be in charge.  That mandate was perfectly acceptable for governors of red states, most of whom did nothing.  But don’t let a Democratic governor issue any mandates.  Those mandates must be deemed too restrictive and overturned by SCOTUS.

The illogic of the SCOTUS decision proves once again that, if you’re a Republican, connecting two dots is difficult, if not impossible for you.  Part of the problem seems to be letting political ideology get in the way of common sense.

On another “can’t-connect-two-dots” front, Trump is still claiming voter fraud and that he really won the election.  By last count Biden won by more than 6,000,000 votes, and Trump was the clear loser.  And all states have certified election results.

What’s really disturbing is not Trump’s behavior.  Yes, Trump’s behavior is childish but he’s acted like a child his entire life.  What’s really disturbing?  Based on a credible survey, more than 70% of registered Republicans believe Trump won the election. Huh? 

Call me whatever you want, but folks if you believe Trump won you’re either the dumbest person on earth or you’re brainwashed. Surely you can’t be serious and think Trump won.

Unfortunately, I think they are serious. As noted occasionally, I have a number of friends on Facebook that could be considered far right politically. While their posts are sometimes comical, but often maddening, the posts do provide some idea what people are thinking, or at least how they’re reacting. The insight is helpful and at the same time frustrating.  Somehow they reached a conclusion but clearly there’s a deficit in their thinking and logic.

If 70+% of Republicans believe Trump won the election, that means 30+% of the voting population is effectively brainwashed.  According to Lincoln, “You can fool some of the people all the time…” Apparently 30+% of the population can be fooled all the time. 

30+% of the population being brainwashed makes it extraordinary difficult, if not impossible, to address and solve real societal Issues.  If that many people are so easily swayed, then we need to educate future generations to avoid being so easily swayed.

How do we avoid widespread cognitive dissonance?  Recent emphasis in education has been on “STEM” courses – science, technology, engineering, mathematics. These type courses are excellent for teaching how to solve certain kinds of problems.  Most decisions in STEM classes tend to be binary, either “yes” or “no.”  

While a binary decision is ideal for many situations, the answer in many other situations in life is not so clear-cut. Often two answers can include a portion that is correct and a portion that is not correct. In such situations which one should one choose?

Being forced to choose between “fuzzy” non-binary answers helps develop critical thinking skills.  To come to a conclusion, one must weigh the variables and decide the importance of each variable. 

To ensure students have the opportunity to learn critical thinking and reduce the likelihood of cognitive dissonance, my suggestion is we expand STEM to SMELT – science, mathematics, engineering, liberal-arts, technology.  Further we should start basic SMELT instruction in kindergarten and no later than first grade.

In the real world, children are faced with “fuzzy” decisions all the time. Let’s make sure our education system teaches them “how to” decide when faced with such a situation. The teaching would be “how to” decide and not “what to” decide. Teaching “how to” decide will reduce the likelihood of being brainwashed.

Teaching “how to” decide will also result in people who can at least consider and understand someone else’s perspective. In the binary world, if you don’t agree with me, you’re wrong. In the “fuzzy” world we can both agree on some things and work toward a more reasonable and practical solution. 

Biden is a critical thinker.  There is hope we can start to make a change. 

#395 Post COVID-19 — How Do We Repurpose Human Capital? (Part 2)

28 Wednesday Oct 2020

Posted by Jordan Abel in Economics, Education Issues, Gov't Policy, Societal Issues, Tech Tsunami, Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Readers: some of the dialogue in this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Entries addressing events in the the future assume there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.

Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether in the next few years, a revolution in the US is still possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Most recent sense check, ENTRY #387.  

Some of the entries are part of a series.  Several series are available as easy-to-read booklets for download:

  • Coming technology tsunami and the implications for the US, Tech Tsunami Booklet with Supplement
  • Working with Lee Iacocca after he left Chrysler, 2019Q3 Iacocca Personal Observations. 
  • GM EV1 — behind-the-scenes events affecting development and introduction of the GM EV1, the first modern electric vehicle. 2020Q1 GM EV-1 Story Behind the Story Booklet
  • Trump Supporters Brainwashed? A series discussing why Republics have abandoned basic principals, Are Trump Republicans Brainwashed 2020Q1  Related article published 10/07/20.  Op-Ed piece in NYT about how people bend their thinking to justify beliefs.  Example is Fox News Information about Covid-19, 20 10 07 Fox News Still in Coronavirus Bubble aka Brainwashed
  • Who took out the Donald?  Who/what groups are most likely to “take out” Trump? The booklet was written early in the Trump administration but still worth a read. Who Took Out the Donald Entries with Update
  • Revenge Revolution — description of what form the revolution might take, 20 01 07 Start of Revolution

Prelude to the current series of entries: I’ve concluded Trump is a lunatic and the administration filled with lapdogs save a couple of people at CDC.  Instead of wasting time commenting on actions by Trump, I thought it more productive to begin discussing what happens in the US once the coronavirus is more under control.  #378 began the series. At this point not sure how many entries.  Comments and suggestions welcome.

ENTRY #395: What has happened to unemployment during the Coronavirus? How severe is unemployment?

Counting the number of people who have filed unemployment claims paints a grim picture. Beginning March 2020, claims per week jumped dramatically.  Toward the end of March, new claims for unemployment for just one week  totaled nearly 7 million.  New claims per week have fallen since but seven months after the peak in March new claims are on average more than 3x higher than earlier on 2020.

Keep in mind these numbers are new claims. The numbers represent new people who are now unemployed. Obviously, some people who filed claims will be called back to work or find another job, but the net amount of those unemployed keeps increasing.  Further, throughout the 2020/2021 winter, the number of weekly new claims for unemployment is likely to remain extraordinarily high by historic standards.

What about the people who are self-employed?  You know, 1099 contract workers, consultants, musicians, even undocumented workers?  What’s happened to their workload?  They all pay taxes.

Contract, or gig workers, have seen jobs dry up as well. There is a provision in the CARES Act (Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security) that enables gig workers to file for a limited amount of economic relief.  The program is administered by states, which makes tracking claims nearly impossible. 

Nevertheless, if we add the number of gig workers seeking  CARES-based income supplement to those filing unemployment claims, the total likely exceeds 1,000,000 every week since early March 2020.  Like those employed by companies, the number of gig workers working fewer hours will increase during the winter.

Some may comment, “Is unemployment really that bad? I mean, the unemployment rate lately has been less than 10.0%. And it bounced back fast following the spike in the Spring.  Early in the Obama Administration, unemployment reached 10.0% and it took years to decline. What’s the big deal?  Trump’s done much better than Obama ever did.”

How Is the Unemployment Rate Calculated?  The unemployment rate is the ratio of those unemployed and looking for work to those in the workforce – those employed and unemployed.  Let’s say there are a thousand people in the workforce. 100 are unemployed and actively looking for a job and 900 are working. The unemployment rate would be 10.0%, or 100/1,000.

Now let’s assume that 50 of the 100 unemployed get discouraged and quit looking for a job. The new unemployment rate would be 50 actively looking for work / 950 (900 employed + 50 actively working), or 5.3%.

What happened to the unemployment rate?  The rate dropped from 10.0% to 5.3%, even though the only change was 50 people became discouraged and quit looking for work.  

What Else Does the Unemployment Rate Not Count? Let’s say that of the 900 people working, 200 are being forced to work part-time because their employer reduced their hours.  Even though working part time, the 200 are counted as “fully employed” when calculating the unemployment rate.   

So what’s the real unemployment/underemployment rate when one considers those who are only working part time and those who are so discouraged about finding another job they quit looking for work?  We know the rate is not 5.3%, which would be the official government number. 

The real rate is more like 30.0% — 200 underemployed, 50 unemployed and looking and 50 unemployed but who’ve quit looking.  In our example, there are 300 out of 1,000 who are either unemployed or underemployed and looking for more work.

If the numbers in this simple example seem ridiculously high, the 30.0% rate probably understates the true underemployment rate the US experiencing in Fall 2020.  Even for professional economists, calculating a reasonable estimate of unemployment/underemployment is nearly impossible because the Trump Administration refuses to disclose what most of us would consider any credible information about many parts of the economy.

As stated in Entry #394, the unemployment problem will not go away post COVID-19. During the initial lockdown to control the virus, organizations began to understand how to conduct operations with far fewer people than in the past. Consumers also began to think differently.

The change in thinking will affect some sectors of the post-COVID-19 economy more than others.  Portions of the service sector will be particularly hard hit.  Even with a vaccine, how many people will be willing to attend sporting events if there are thousands of other people jammed next to one another? How many people will be willing to eat in crowded restaurants, travel on crowded airplanes, ride jam-packed trains/buses, stay in unfamiliar hotels, go to amusement parks, etc.?  While we won’t know the extent for a number of years, assuming a 25-30% loss of pre-COVID-19 travel-and-entertainment-related jobs would be a reasonable estimate. 

Manufacturing output should rise post-virus but the number of jobs in manufacturing will continue to erode relative to output.  The trend will continue to replace workers with more automation, use of sophisticated software and robotics.

What’s the Solution? After mulling over this problem for a number of months, my conclusion is a two-pronged solution is necessary.

  1. WPA-like programs that focus on building/rebuilding critical infrastructure throughout the United States. Yes, such programs require lots of manual labor.  And no, such programs are not a long-term solution.  However, WPA-like programs will employ a portion of the workforce that will have an extremely difficult time transitioning to a digital-based economy. Plus, WPA-like programs will address much of the US infrastructure that needs repairing and upgrading.
  2. Repurposing many existing jobs.  Initial repurposing training for some jobs could be completed in 10-12 weeks.  The basic training would be followed by a job using the skills learned and additional on-the-job training (OJT). 

Will some of the jobs after basic training be considered “make work”? Yes, but any kind of training includes time to practice and expand basic skills.

When I joined General Motors following undergrad (many moons ago), I worked at Cadillac HQ in Detroit.  At the time the Clark Street Cadillac facility was huge, including two assembly line, paint shop, welding, full engine machining and a bunch of other stuff.  The campus totaled nearly 50 acres and included many buildings with 3-4 stories. Who knows how many million square feet of floor space.  For someone who likes cars and manufacturing, the facility was like one giant candy store.

My initial assignment was in a department called “Project Control.”  The department’s primary function was to evaluate various proposed expenditures – new equipment in Engine Machining Department, e.g.

Truth be known, most of my early assignments really were “make work,” since the guys in the department who’d been around awhile already knew the answer. But I’d be given an assignment and off I go to find some department located in this huge complex. 

The purposes of these assignments were: (i) can he find the way out to the department and back without getting lost too many times; (ii) help me begin to understand the breadth and depth of the complexity involved in manufacturing a car/truck; (iii) can he understand the scope and purpose of the proposed project and write a coherent recommendation?

What do I remember from those early days on the job? Frankly I do not remember any specific project. What I do remember is beginning to understand that manufacturing components for a vehicle and then assembling that vehicle is an incredibly complicated task, but also one that fascinates me to this day.

I also remember discovering all kinds of places in the plant to eat. One cafeteria, for example, had great pastrami sandwiches every Thursday. I also remember finding vending machines that dispensed ice cream bars. The bars would just fit inside the canister for the plant-wide pneumatic tube system.  While on these assignments one of my tasks might be to send ice cream bars back to the office via the tube system.

While some of those assignments were make-work, I think the learning from those assignments served me and GM well for my entire career. I’ve also applied many of the lessons learned to situations post GM.

Now back to the problem at hand.  How do we, societal we, train people to transition to a more digital economy?  First, we need to understand and appreciate that the training will not be completed overnight. We also need to understand that some of the projects, especially those early in the training cycle, will seem like make work. And, we also need to understand that some people will not be able to make the transition as effectively.

However, if we don’t start transitioning now, then the US will continue to fall behind countries with more advanced or more disciplined education systems and/or fall behind countries that have fully committed to a digital economy.  How do we truly make America great again?  To be continued, including some discussion about changes in approach to education, from K through grad school.

#394 Post COVID-19 — How Do We Repurpose Fixed Assets and Human Capital? (Part 1)

21 Wednesday Oct 2020

Posted by Jordan Abel in Economics, Education Issues, Gov't Policy, Societal Issues, Tech Tsunami, Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Readers: some of the dialogue in this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Entries addressing events in the the future assume there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.

Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether in the next few years, a revolution in the US is still possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Most recent sense check, ENTRY #387.  

Some of the entries are part of a series.  Several series are available as easy-to-read booklets for download:

  • Coming technology tsunami and the implications for the US, Tech Tsunami Booklet with Supplement
  • Working with Lee Iacocca after he left Chrysler, 2019Q3 Iacocca Personal Observations. 
  • GM EV1 — behind-the-scenes events affecting development and introduction of the GM EV1, the first modern electric vehicle. 2020Q1 GM EV-1 Story Behind the Story Booklet
  • Trump Supporters Brainwashed? A series discussing why Republics have abandoned basic principals, Are Trump Republicans Brainwashed 2020Q1  Related article published 10/07/20.  Op-Ed piece in NYT about how people bend their thinking to justify beliefs.  Example is Fox News Information about Covid-19, 20 10 07 Fox News Still in Coronavirus Bubble aka Brainwashed
  • Who took out the Donald?  Who/what groups are most likely to “take out” Trump? The booklet was written early in the Trump administration but still worth a read. Who Took Out the Donald Entries with Update
  • Revenge Revolution — description of what form the revolution might take, 20 01 07 Start of Revolution

Prelude to the current series of entries: I’ve concluded Trump is a lunatic and the administration filled with lapdogs save a couple of people at CDC.  Instead of wasting time commenting on actions by Trump, I thought it more productive to begin discussing what happens in the US once the coronavirus is more under control.  #378 began the series. At this point not sure how many entries.  Comments and suggestions welcome.

ENTRY #394: Note: Yikes, the craziness of the Trump administration has continued the last couple of weeks. Trump and a substantial portion at his staff contracted the COVID-19.  After a few days hospitalization at Walter Reed Army Medical Center, and after taking a host of unapproved drug cocktails plus some steroids, Trump claimed that he was feeling better than any time in the last 20 years.  Must have been a rough 20 years.

Then, in only Trump fashion, he claimed getting COVID-19 was a blessing from G_d. Of course, who else would G_d choose to save the world from this scourge? Mother Teresa? An epidemiologist? No, the Harvard/MIT grad, Trump. Well, maybe Trump didn’t go to Harvard or MIT but just ask and he’ll tell you he’s a stable genius and one of G_d’s favorites.

A bit of irony was part of Trump’s treatment at Walter Reed included cells obtained from an abortion. Where was the outrage from Trump and the far-right about stem cells from an abortion? Cat apparently got their tongue.

More seriously, and the focus of this entry is the major restructuring of the US economy that’s going to occur whether or not there is a vaccine or even cure for COVID-19. The US is faced with an economic upheaval that may rival what occurred during the first and second phases of the Industrial Revolution.

Industrial Revolution Phase I started in earnest around 1800 with the introduction of machines and devices that replaced handcrafting. These machines could complete a task in a fraction of the time and with higher precision than the work done by hand.  Phase I also benefited from the refinement of the steam engine, which allowed the engine to power such mobile devices as a locomotive.  The locomotive enabled the creation of a railroad network to deliver goods to more locations.  Steam-powered tractors used in agriculture resulted in significantly higher output per man-hour of labor.

What I’ve labeled as Phase II of the Industrial Revolution started about 1900.  Two major breakthroughs: (i) introduction of the internal-combustion engine, which was smaller and lighter than a comparable output steam engine, and (ii) standardization of parts. Standardizing parts, originally developed by the rifle manufacturing industry for easy replacement in the field, was later adopted by manufacturers of transportation – automobiles, locomotives and aircraft.  Standardization enabled the use of assembly lines, which lowered labor cost per unit and increased quality.

Phase II also resulted in workers shifting from agriculture to manufacturing jobs.  The shift required workers to have a different set of skills, although for most workers skills required for jobs in manufacturing were limited and could be learned on the job. 

The vast majority of manufacturing companies, especially automotive, were based in the Northeast and Midwest, both of which experienced a major influx of immigrants and southern blacks leaving the farm.  While the manufacturing companies made enormous profits, hourly workers were not well paid until the companies faced work stoppages as the UAW and other unions gained membership.  Following WWII the economy steadily improved and wages for factory workers increased to the point that many enjoyed what could be called a “middle-class lifestyle.”

The plethora of well-paying manufacturing jobs began to erode in the 1980’s with the introduction of: (i) companies shifting production of goods to plants outside the US; (ii) robotics and somewhat later, artificial intelligence-based programs.

Rather than the disruption being caused by a change in required job skills, as seen in Phases I and Phase II of the Industrial Revolution, jobs were shifted outside the US due, in part, to: (i) US tax laws on corporations, which ended up favoring job shifts rather than penalizing job shifts; (ii) erroneous analysis of costs by the employer.  Shifting jobs outside the US accelerated further in the 1990s and by the early 2000s, a substantial number of manufacturing jobs had been shifted outside the US.

The analysis of costs justifying the shift to plants outside the US often focused primarily on labor costs per unit rather than a more holistic approach that accounted for all costs associated with manufacturing.  High labor costs were blamed on union contracts and therefore the only way to keep costs down was to move jobs to a different location.  But were labor costs really too high? 

Following is an example I experienced personally.  While the story is a data point of one, my experience is the thinking of the Board was fairly typical among many companies, large and small. 

One of my jobs post GM was running a company in northern California that assembled electric scooters.  When I took the job the Board said to shift assembly out of northern California (Sonoma County) to China, where labor costs were much lower.  I resisted and within seven months we had increased productivity (with virtually no capital expenditures) to a level where we could double the labor costs in California and pay the Chinese workers zero and it would have been cheaper to continue to produce in California.  Why?  When all related costs were considered, producing in Northern California – in the middle of wine country, no less – was cheaper.  Such a holistic approach to calculating costs apparently was not considered by many companies. 

In addition to being affected by jobs shifting elsewhere, many assembly and other semi-skilled workers in the US are facing another growing threat — robots. The increased use of robotics and AI represents a fundamental shift in how goods are designed, manufactured, assembled and processed for shipment.  The shipment of these goods to the buyer’s location is going to be disrupted as autonomous vehicles migrate from testbed demonstrations to daily use.    

As if implementation of technology were not enough of a formidable threat, these workers face yet another threat caused by COVID-19. To control the spread of the virus, many employers mandated that staff work from home. COVID-19 restrictions also forced many businesses to close, at least temporarily, although more and more businesses are closing permanently.

Within the service sector, the great unknown is to what degree travel and entertainment and supporting businesses will be changed post-COVID-19.  By the time the threat of the virus subsides, will a substantial portion of the population have become less interested in traveling on crowded airplanes, sailing on petri-dish-like cruise ships with hundreds of others, eating in crowded restaurants, or attending sporting events with tens of thousands of others? 

If so, then many assets supporting travel and entertainment will become obsolete – airplanes, hotels, restaurants, theme parks, cruise ships, large athletic stadia, etc.  Some of the buildings can be repurposed but what does one do with a surplus jet liner, cruise ship or football stadium? 

In the retail sector, the shift toward on-line shopping in not new.  For several decades, the brick-and-mortar retail sector has been facing disruption.  The shift toward internet sales, both personal and business, started to take hold in the late 1990s, early 2000s. While some of the shift to internet sales replaced transactions previously completed using 800#’s, most of the shift has been new.    

Restrictions associated with COVID-19 have been like a rocket ship propelling the shift forward.  In a manner of months, forced isolation may have accelerated on-line shopping patterns an amount that otherwise would have taken 10-20 years to achieve.  The shift to the internet and the number of store closings generate the question, “What to do with all the empty retail space?” 

Thus, any plan to stimulate the economy post-COVID-19 needs to address job creation as well as how to repurpose many assets associated with the service sector.  One assumption seems certain – the mix of output in US economy will be different post-COVID-19 than pre-COVID-19.  Making America great again will not be looking in the rear-view mirror and trying to recapture what once was.  The Pre-COVID economy and valuation of assets is as long gone as Wally and the Beaver.    

The US, and many countries worldwide, will have a blob of dislocated assets that have little or no value in their current configuration. Repurposing some of the fixed assets could be fairly straightforward.  Office buildings, shopping centers, many factories could be converted into housing, assisted living facilities and schools.  Converting shopping centers to housing seems ideal to help address the shortage of affordable housing in many cities. 

What do we do with surplus airplanes and cruise ships?  Beyond scrap metal, there’s not much use.  What about surplus infrastructure supporting the air-travel industry?  Some surplus airfields could become ideal recreation centers.  Or, the airfield could be reforested to support wildlife and help address global warming. 

The more difficult problem is how to repurpose human capital.  Without significant training, how do you take someone who was in a semi-skilled job – say an assembly plant or sewing clothing – and have the person perform in a job requiring a more advanced skill set?  How does society repurpose service workers, especially those in travel-related Industries? 

Even many semi-skilled, white-collar workers will be displaced post-COVID-19.  As organizations adjust to more remote working, some middle management jobs likely will be eliminated.

Repurposing the human assets is a daunting task for government and organizations.  In terms of required job skills, Phase III of the Industrial Revolution will be the opposite of Phases I and Phase II.  In Phases I/II new jobs often required less skill, or a skill that was relatively easy to learn on the job. 

Phase III job skills will be more advanced.  Robots and AI-based machines can replace many existing lower-skilled jobs.  OJT will be very difficult.  An example.  There is a company in Fort Wayne, IN that makes exhaust systems for many auto OEM’s.  The plant runs 24×7.  Despite the high output, the plant has few employees.

At first glance, bending pipe a few ways for an exhaust system seems simple enough.  However, the exhaust system might be different for the same model car/truck with a different engine.  Plus there are at least three different auto OEM’s serviced by this plant, which complicates production schedules. 

Bending pipe is a bit more complicated than it seems.  When pipe is bent, one side becomes thinner and the other side of the bend tends to crinkle. 

The Fort Wayne company’s solution to pipe bending and complicated production schedules is a highly automated process to bend the pipe and to change configurations automatically.  Most workers at the plant are skilled in computer programming.  There are no manual “pipe benders.”  The only non-skilled jobs are the lift-truck operators moving raw material to the beginning of and off the end of the line.  In a few years, the lift-truck operators could be replaced by autonomous lift trucks. 

For the US, post-COVID-19 the training of unemployed workers for new skills will be more difficult than repurposing fixed assets.  How do we approach solving this problem? More thoughts in the next entry.  For some guidance, see the existing write-up titled “Technology Tsunami.” (https://usrevolution5.files.wordpress.com/2020/01/tech-tsunami-booklet-with-supplement-1.pdf)

#390: Bring in the Repair Crew to Fix Trump’s Damage (#12 in Series)

23 Sunday Aug 2020

Posted by Jordan Abel in Causes of the Revolution, Education Issues, Gov't Policy, Post Trump Presidency, Societal Issues

≈ Leave a comment

Readers: some of the dialogue in this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Entries addressing events in the The future assume there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.

Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether in the next few years, a revolution in the US is still possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Most recent sense check, ENTRY #387.  

Some of the entries are part of a series.  Several series are available as easy-to-read booklets for download:

  • Working with Lee Iacocca after he left Chrysler, 2019Q3 Iacocca Personal Observations. 
  • GM EV1 — behind-the-scenes events affecting development and introduction of the GM EV1, the first modern electric vehicle. 2020Q1 GM EV-1 Story Behind the Story Booklet
  • Coming technology tsunami and the implications for the US, Tech Tsunami Booklet with Supplement
  • Trump Supporters Brainwashed? A series discussing why Republics have abandoned basic principals, Are Trump Republicans Brainwashed 2020Q1
  • Who took out the Donald?  Who/what groups are most likely to “take out” Trump? Who Took Out the Donald Entries with Update
  • Revenge Revolution — description of what form the revolution might take, 20 01 07 Start of Revolution

Prelude to the current series of entries: I’ve concluded Trump is a lunatic and the administration filled with lapdogs save a couple of people at CDC.  Instead of wasting time commenting on actions by Trump, I thought it more productive to begin discussing what happens in the US once the coronavirus is more under control.  #378 began the series. At this point not sure how many entries.  Comments and suggestions welcome.

ENTRY #390:  One of the more positive events the last couple of weeks was Snoopy’s birthday. Yes, that Snoopy.  You know the great philosopher whose many friends and admirers include Lucy, Woodstock and Linus.

More seriously, the past weeks have been mind-wrecking. Coronavirus aside, Congressional Senate Republicans have all but disappeared from the landscape. Based on different credible news sources, no Republicans in the Senate, especially Mitch McConnell, were involved in the now stalled negotiations to extend government support for those whose economic well-being has been hit hard by Covid-19.

Trump became the de facto Republican negotiator. The outcome was no surprise.  Trump has proved repeatedly – in private and public life – to be one of the world’s worst negotiators. He maintained that pattern during these negotiations.

Always wanting someone to blame rather than working with someone to solve a problem, Trump and his brain-dead band of Munchkins refused to cut a deal with house Democrats.  Trump claimed the Democrats were at fault even though the House passed phase two of an economic recovery package in May.

McConnell, who may star in the sequel to “Dr. No,” refused to have any hearings on the House-passed bill or participate in negotiations.  Ah, isn’t it wonderful to play the fiddle while Rome burns?  Dilbert recently coined a new Covid-19 phrase that could be applied to McConnell’s behavior, “What a maskhole!”

So as McConnell fiddled instead of negotiating, Trump again declared himself king.  This time the self-declared king signed several half-baked Executive Orders that will do nothing to help those in need but seemingly will reinforce Trump’s image with his base as “solving the economic recovery problem.”  If his base only understood as much about economics as most 4th graders understand.

One half-baked Executive Order of his was to suspend Social Security withholding tax.  First, people who are working are not the bulk of the problem.  People who aren’t working or working very little need economic assistance. At least those working have an income.  Second, the withholding tax was to be “suspended” not eliminated.

As president, Trump has no power to change the tax law, especially with an Executive Order. So what does a “suspended withholding tax” mean? The money that should have been withheld from paychecks needs to be repaid. Thus, Trump’s Executive Order gave workers an opportunity to loan themselves money that they must repay.  Let me repeat, if his base only understood as much about economics as most 4th graders understand…

Suspending withholding tax seems fair, right? Mmm, maybe not.  Let’s see, workers get a loan they must repay while business owners get a loan from the federal government to pay workers and use for other expenses, but that loan doesn’t have to be repaid.  No such gift for the workers.

If you completed a survey of how many Trump supporters understood how Trump’s Executive Order really affected them, I’ll bet the total would be less than 5%. Why they continue to support actions by Trump that are not in their economic best interest is beyond me.

Trump’s nonsensical behavior and the abdication by Republican Senators of any responsibility to help the public does not bode well for the US post- 2020 election.  A Trump re-election would likely result in ever more dictatorial tirades. Some of his claims of late, as one reporter noted wryly, would make North Korea’s Kim Jung-un blush with embarrassment.  Attorney General Bill Barr seems equally bent on promoting an authoritarian-led Trump regime.

If Trump is re-elected and Republicans hold the Senate, another US civil war seems certain.  Yes, civil war with armed conflicts and attacks on segments of society deemed to be “Never Trumpers.”

If Biden wins, he and Kamala Harris will have an incredibly tough road ahead, even if the Democrats win back the Senate. The damage done by Trump, Barr, Pompeo and their cronies can be repaired, but…

Think of how long it takes to repair something – house, car, relationship – compared to the time it takes to cause the damage. What’s the time difference between time to break and time to repair? To repair takes probably ten times as long, or longer.

So, if Trump is re-elected and the US experiences a severe Revenge Revolution, or if Biden is elected and the US experiences a mild Revenge Revolution, the country is going to face a decade or possibly two decades before the damage from Trump can be repaired.  Repairing damage to some international relationships could take even longer.

Compounding the repair efforts will be demands to address societal issues caused by racism.  Effectively addressing issues caused by racism may be more complex than repairing Trump-related damage.

People who think some government actions or more laws will make racism disappear are being foolhardy. Racism, and not just racism directed at blacks, has been around for thousands of years.  For centuries, people outside one’s circle – immediate family, local community, ethnic background, religion, etc. – have viewed others with suspicion and often discriminated against them. No law is going to change such attitudes.

The demands that something be done right now to address issues caused by racism are understandable but very likely those demands will divert time and valuable financial resources from the effort to repair the economy, educational system, political system, infrastructure and other critical items which need to be repaired now.  In fact, one could argue rationally that without significant progress in repairing the Trump-caused damage, efforts to address racism will be for naught, and could even backfire.

The best solution for minorities to address the effects of racism, seems to be as it has always been for minorities – education, Education when supported by one’s community begets economic opportunity.  Consider the recommended approach racist if you want.

My view is members of the black community need to take the initiative to help one another.  The Black Lives Matter and other movements would do well to study the pattern of how every other ethnic group that migrated out of poverty.

There are many wealthy blacks who can support such an effort, from athletes to entertainers to business people. We need fair and equal enforcement of the law for sure.  But, it is also time for blacks to look in the mirror and begin to take charge of their destiny.

Significant progress might take two or even three generations. A journey of a 1,000 miles begins with one step.

As far as demands for reparations, my view is be careful what you ask for and especially be careful of what you demand.  Reparations might make some people feel better in the short terms.  Keep in mind reparations are a superficial solution that does not solve the underlying problem. A good sense check for reparation would be to research the lives of lottery winners for say 5-6 years following their so-called lucky day.

Real change takes time.  Real change takes commitment to change.  Real change takes hard work.  Respect must be earned.  Respect cannot be legislated.

Next time: discussion of actions to address climate change post-Revenge Revolution.

#380: Shopping Centers — Surplus to Stimulating (“We Gotta Get Out…” #3)

03 Sunday May 2020

Posted by Jordan Abel in Affordable Solutions, Common Sense Policies, Education Issues, Innovative Thinking: Ideas and Products, Societal Issues, Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Readers: this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.

Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether in the next few years, a revolution in the US is still possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Most recent sense check, Entry #365.  

Some of the entries are part of a series.  Several series are available as easy-to-read booklets for download:

  • Working with Lee Iacocca after he left Chrysler, 2019Q3 Iacocca Personal Observations. 
  • GM EV1 — behind-the-scenes events affecting development and introduction of the GM EV1, the first modern electric vehicle. 2020Q1 GM EV-1 Story Behind the Story Booklet
  • Coming technology tsunami and the implications for the US, Tech Tsunami Booklet with Supplement
  • Trump Supporters Brainwashed? A series discussing why Republics have abandoned basic principals, Are Trump Republicans Brainwashed 2020Q1
  • Who took out the Donald?  Who/what groups are most likely to “take out” Trump? Who Took Out the Donald Entries with Update
  • Revenge Revolution — description of what form the revolution might take, 20 01 07 Start of Revolution

Prelude: I’ve concluded Trump is a lunatic and the administration filled with lapdogs save a couple of people at CDC.  Instead of wasting time commenting on actions by Trump, I thought it more productive to begin discussing what happens in the US once the coronavirus is more under control.  #378 began the series. At this point not sure how many entries.  Comments and suggestions welcome.

ENTRY #380: If one believes COVID-19 will trigger some changes in societal behavior, then what behavior might be disrupted permanently after the immediate threat has dissipated? Last week’s entry discussed how the general public likely will demand more affordable or government-provided healthcare coverage.

This week’s entry addresses how shopping patterns might continue to be affected and the implications of major changes. The “stay-at-home” mandates during early months of COVID-19 accelerated the use of on-line shopping.

While some brick-and-mortar stores were able to generate on-line business for delivery or store-side pickup, many shoppers shifted to such on-line stores as Amazon. The shift affected food shopping as well. Even though most grocery stores remained open, many people ordered on line with curbside delivery at the store or home delivery.

The big unknown is whether consumer shopping behavior has been altered permanently. If it has, how will such behavioral change affect attitudes toward participating in such other large-crowd activities as football games, concerts, restaurants, even religious services? If people are satisfied to watch sporting events at home on large-screen TVs, to shop on-line, to have food delivered, to live-stream religious services on the same large-screen TV, then what happens to the physical structures supporting large-crowd activities?

For the businesses/organizations associated with these activities, what happens to the value of the real estate or the value of the franchise, whether the organization is a chain restaurant, retail outlet, or religious institution? (Interesting, the value of a sports franchise may be less affected since much of the value is not based on the number of fans attending an event but the advertising revenue associated with the media broadcast of the event.)

If the value of the real estate falls, then what should be done with the property? Let’s start with the most obvious real estate – shopping centers. As suburbs were developed following WWII, shopping centers became the de facto downtown for the suburbs. Just as the value of real estate in many downtowns declined as shopping centers proliferated, the value of shopping centers has declined as on-line shopping has proliferated.

Without having any hard data, the United States likely has at least two times the number of shopping centers needed. Some of the surplus shopping centers are large-footprint centers with multi-anchor stores and some more neighborhood centers and/or strip malls. Most larger centers also have a number of big-box stores on the periphery, which are also not needed.

What should be done with these surplus shopping centers and big-box stores? Converting the real estate to office space has been an option. However, following the coronavirus the US may end up with too many office buildings as well. As people were forced to work from home, and the implementation of technology was accelerated, many companies began to rethink requirements for (i) office space; (ii) employees on staff. The result of this rethinking is likely to be fewer office buildings and smaller staffs. (For more information about the impact on employment of the implementing more technology, download Tech Tsunami Booklet with Supplement).

If office space is not needed, then what could be done with these shopping centers? Why not address a national need and convert the shopping center to affordable housing? The coronavirus pointed out the irony that many workers deemed “essential” were also lower-paid workers. Converting shopping centers to affordable housing for these workers also would allow them to live closer to public transportation, which usually is available in larger shopping centers.

The shopping centers could be reconfigured to become true neighborhoods. Many shopping centers have large areas devoted to parking that could be converted to playgrounds, small parks, even neighborhood sports fields. Many centers are ringed with restaurants, dry cleaners, drugstores, etc., which could stay in place following redevelopment. With some creative planning, neighborhood schools could be built as part of the conversion. (School nicknames could incorporate the name of the former shopping center – the Carolinaplace Cougars or the SouthPark Sentinels. Just kidding.)

As a centerpiece of the neighborhood, the schools could be designed with classrooms for the traditional “3 R’s” education, as well as classrooms for introduction to sciences and the arts.

Neighborhood schools would reduce the need for and the inconvenience and cost of busing. Neighborhood schools would encourage children to participate in after-hours extra-curricular activities as well as be available, if needed, for remedial classes. Such here-and-now remedial classes would help students keep pace.

The proximity of the school near students’ homes would reduce the need for parents to spend money on expensive babysitting. Building design could include rooms adaptable for adult education and/or neighborhood meetings.

To help address the problem of limited access to healthcare faced by many lower-paid workers, the redeveloped shopping center could include a neighborhood clinic with office hours tied to non-working hours of neighborhood families. Clinics would serve basic needs, including physicals for children and adults and would be linked electronically to larger medical facilities. Such “preventive medicine” would reduce visits to ER.

Next week. More on post-coronavirus impact on societal behavior, including how religious institutions might be affected. Could some churches, synagogues and mosques suffer the same fate as many big-box stores?

#362. Trying to Understand Trump Supporters

08 Sunday Dec 2019

Posted by Jordan Abel in Causes of the Revolution, Education Issues, Societal Issues, Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Readers: this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.

Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether in the next few years, a revolution in the US is still possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Most recent sense check, Entry #332.  An update coming later in December.

In the previous entry I committed to try and understand why people continue to support Trump. What is particularly puzzling is support for Trump by people whose core values are polar opposite of Trump’s behavior. Why would one make such a decision?

Because a discussion about Trump can be so emotional, I thought it better to first have a couple of “experimental conversations.” Also, and maybe somewhat selfishly, I thought the experimental conversations should be with people who are really more acquaintances than close personal friends. Thus, if the experiment went bad, then the consequence of alienating each other would not be damage to a close personal relationship.

Two candidates for the experimental conversations immediately came to mind. #1 was someone from high school with whom I’ve had no contact since other than on Facebook. #2 was a second-generation immigrant with whom I had a working relationship a couple of years ago.

When considering the candidates, I understand somewhat why the one from high school might be a Trump supporter. Why the second-generation immigrant supports Trump makes no sense. Why would he ever support Trump? He’s Hispanic, grew up in south Texas near the border. Obviously, I’m missing something in his logic stream.

A key open issue with the research is the venue for the dialogue. Each venue has benefits and drawbacks. Facebook is easy to use but uncontrollable. The conversation between us could be interrupted by a myriad of friends of the participants or of mine.

Email might be okay to introduce the idea and present a few questions, but nuances and subtleties are nearly impossible in email. Plus, the time lag with back-and-forth emails would break the rhythm of the conversation. Texting would be faster but, as with email, nuance remains nearly impossible.

So the plan? Use old technology. The initial contact with the candidates will be email. The email will discuss the experiment and ask about participating. If yes, then set a time for a call to begin the conversation.

Given the sensitivity of the topic, one of the guidelines will likely be that the candidate can stop the interview at any time, but with the commitment that within a few days, we would try to talk again. If the second call goes south, okay. The experiment with that person fails. Not to be discouraged, lots of experiments fail. Also, like experiments one should make every effort to understand what went wrong, and not just point fingers at the other person.

After a couple of experiments the idea is to talk to more Trump supporters, trying to understand their perspective. “Why waste your time?” has been a frequent comment from people I’ve discussed the idea with. The conversation usually also includes, “Trump supporters will never change.”

The naysayers are probably right. But the curiosity in me is compelling. Maybe, just maybe, there’s an underlying issue creating support for Trump that can be addressed with a solution that is good for society at large and addressed without Trump’s usual bombastic and hurtful approach.

At the worst, the experiment should become good conversation at cocktail parties and family gatherings. Rather than yelling at one another, talking about the experiment might allow different camps to have civil discourse. You never know.

So, I’m off to pursue my naive experiment. I’m going to try and start this week. Probably won’t have any results for a couple of weeks, but I will post them in the blog.

If you have an idea about how to approach understanding why people with a polar opposite set of values than Trump still support Trump, please let me know. Or, if you have a question or two you’d like to have answered, please forward as well. Thanks. All for now.

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