Monthly Archives: December 2020

#399. The Donald and Charlie. Two Peas from the Same Pod. (Part #4)

17 Thursday Dec 2020

Posted by in Back Asswards Thinking, Causes of the Revolution, Education Issues, Post Trump Presidency, Societal Issues, Uncategorized

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Readers: some of the dialogue in this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Entries addressing events in the the future assume there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.

Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether in the next few years, a revolution in the US is still possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Most recent sense check, ENTRY #387.   Next Sense Check will be Entry #400.

Some of the entries are part of a series.  Several series are available as easy-to-read booklets for download:

Beginning #378 the entries began focusing on a post-Trump administration and a post-Coronavirus world.  We’re headed to a post-Trump world and post-COVID world, even if a ways away.  The premise of a 5th US revolution in the 2020’s decade has not changed.  Comments and suggestions welcome.

ENTRY #399: The past few entries have attempted to understand the cause of and whether to attempt to solve cognitive dissonance among many Trump supporters. The issue is not about different political philosophies. A democratic society should have at least two strong political parties. The difference is trying to understand why so many Trump supporters are willing to sacrifice the basic tenets of democracy for a known wannabe autocrat.

What does Trump offer that has created a cult-like following? When one steps back and analyzes the data, the Trump cult is getting nothing in return for following the Donald. So why follow the Donald? What is the appeal; what is the quid-pro-quo?

Despite no obvious benefit, at least to rational thinkers, why does the Trump cult do whatever the Donald wants? The Trump cult supports his actions even when the actions are contrary to the best interest of the followers.

It’s as if Trump is like the Great Oz, “I say the coronavirus is like the flu. You don’t need a mask.” And the followers don’t wear a mask. Or the Great Oz says, “Send money to me to help fight a stolen election.” And the cult sends money. Or the Great Oz says “Support a gigantic tax break for the wealthy and the benefits will trickle down to you.” And the cult believes in voodoo economics, even though the Federal deficit has ballooned and the children/grandchildren of the cult will be paying for the wealth transfer.

In some ways Trump reminds me of Charlie. Reminds me not of Charlie Tuna, although Trump’s body profile looks similar. But reminds me of Charlie Manson. Often times Trump seems as maniacal and crazy as Manson.

If you think the comparison to Manson is extreme, consider Trump’s actions to suppress efforts to control the pandemic. Also, consider the claims about the White House intentionally distorting info from CDC re the severity of the virus. Now, count the number of unnecessary deaths by Trump’s actions and compare the number to Charlie’s death toll. Still think the comparison is unfair?

As far as members of the cult, at least the women who hung around Charlie Manson, got satisfied sexually. Those who hang around Trump only get screwed economically.

How does the US society begin to address and re-educate members of the Trump cult? I don’t think we should waste our time. The cult members have been brainwashed and the major protagonist will fade away by late spring 2021. Unfortunately, the essence of Trump’s message may not fade as quickly.

Post inauguration, Trump will act like many bullies when their perceived power is taken away. He will melt like the Wicked Witch of the West. Oh, Trump might hold a few pep rallies and generate some noise, but nothing of any lasting consequence.

If Trump understands one thing well, that one thing is how to take other people’s money. When he was in debt for the failing casinos, he declared bankruptcy and walked away leaving the banks with the debt. Since no US-based bank would deal with him, beginning in the late 1990’s, early 2000’s Trump turned to sources outside the US to fund purchases of golf courses and hotel properties. While in Charlotte, NC to visit one of the Trump golf courses, Don, Jr. bragged that the Russians had become Trump’s primary funding source. And you still wonder why Trump’s nice to the Russians?

A recent example of using other people’s money was when it became clear that he was likely to lose the re-election to Biden. At that point Trump formed a PAC that was promoted to help him get re-elected in 2024 and to help finance the legal cost of lawsuits associated with what Trump kept promoting as the “rigged” 2020 presidential election.

The reality is the PAC is Trump’s new piggybank. Donors likely didn’t read the fine print. After a small percentage is allocated to the RNC and some for legal costs for the frivolous lawsuits, Trump gets to keep the rest. The money will stay in the PAC although Trump will control the disbursement of funds, including use for personal expenses. Keeping funds in the PAC should protect the PAC from creditors, who will likely force Trump into bankruptcy when the $400+ million loans on his properties come due in the next few years.

Whether the PAC funds can be protected from judgements for fraud is problematic. The State of New York has been investigating the Trump organization and Trump personally for tax fraud and possibly other crimes. The investigations may lead to indictments soon after Trump leaves office. State crimes are not overridden by a presidential pardon. Oops.

To convince cult members he will keep promoting his message, Trump has claimed he will create a new cable channel once out of office. The claim seems to be another ploy to attract funds from the ne’er-do-well supporters, who can least afford it. Trump will need an outlet since most credible media, save a couple of bloviators on Fox, have started focusing on the Biden administration’s plans to address mounting economic and social problems.

Like Charlie Manson’s followers, some of Trump’s supporters will stay in the cult no matter the circumstances or the evidence against the cult leader. Most followers, however, soon will migrate to another fringe Republican candidate who probably will be more charismatic than Trump but spew the same BS.

The biggest problem for the Republican Party is Trump’s legacy and how to recover from it. The damage to the credibility of government and the democracy caused by Trump’s corruption, cronyism and complacency has been significant.

For the Republican Party in particular, how long will a substantial portion of the Party believe the dis-information and fantasies, whether promoted by Trump or a follow-on Trump? How can the Republican Party put forth a credible platform of governance beyond “Just Say No” to whatever Biden or Democrats propose? Without a more reasonable platform the appeal of the Republican Party will continue to shrink.

A shrinking and ineffective Republican Party could become a major contributor to a 5th US Revolution, aka the Revenge Revolution? On the optimistic side it will take 10-15 years to repair the damage to the Federal agencies and the credibility of the government caused by Trump and complicit Republican Senators, Representative and state governors. During the period of repair, the chances of unrest increase. Trump cultists could be persuaded to revolt, whether or not Trump is still around.

For many years a small group in Texas has promoted secession. That group and the Trump cultists appear to share many of the same characteristics. The secession movement could move beyond the obvious candidates of former Confederate states. A broader secession movement could find support in the upper Midwest – for example in the northern part of Lower Michigan – as well as a number of other Midwest and mountain states.

The secession movement could grow even stronger if Biden steps down after one term, which seems likely, and Kamala Harris then is elected president. Given the harassment and death threats by Trump loyalists of the female elected officials, especially in Michigan – Governor, Attorney General and Secretary of State – the Trump loyalists likely would consider stronger action against a Black female president.

As noted periodically in these entries, a well-coordinated widespread guerilla-warfare like attack could cause significant damage to property and result in a number of deaths. Think of Charlie Mason’s Helter-Skelter attack but on a much larger scale. The disruption would create significant angst among the general population. Once the guerilla warfare started, unless the federal and state governments quickly quelled the attacks, the country could start to spin out of control.

More about the possible Revenge Revolution in entry #400.

#398 Overcoming Cognitive Dissonance of Trump Supporters (Part 3)

06 Sunday Dec 2020

Posted by in Causes of the Revolution, Education Issues, Post Trump Presidency, Societal Issues, Uncategorized

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Readers: some of the dialogue in this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Entries addressing events in the the future assume there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.

Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether in the next few years, a revolution in the US is still possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Most recent sense check, ENTRY #387.  

Some of the entries are part of a series.  Several series are available as easy-to-read booklets for download:

Beginning #378 the entries began focusing on a post-Trump administration and a post-Coronavirus world.  We’re headed to a post-Trump world and post-COVID seems possible, if a ways away.  The premise of a 5th US revolution in the 2020’s decade has not changed.  Comments and suggestions welcome.

ENTRY #398: The previous two entries discussed the seeming inability to connect two dots of 1/3 or more of the American voting population. Well, let’s make that the inability to understand one dot.

I vowed that entries would look past the election and Trump’s absurd claims of voter fraud. But what I cannot look past is the continued cognitive dissonance of Trump supporters.

Trump is the quintessential con man.  How many honest real estate developers do you know? The con man recently formed a PAC, with funds supposedly to be used for: (i) legal fees to fight fraud in the 2020 election; (ii) his re-election bid in 2024. To help fund the PAC, Trump sent a series of emails and letters to likely supporters. Since the election, roughly one month ago, how much has Trump raised for the PAC, mostly small donors? Not $10 million, not $50 million, not a $100 million but $200 million plus and counting.

What are the PAC guidelines for using the funds? A portion goes to the RNC, maybe 25%. The rest can be used by the Donald however he wants, including paying himself a salary, using funds for living expenses, legal fees, clothing, haircuts or whatever.  Folks, the con man is not going to run again.

Then, why did he start the PAC?  Dollars to donuts the PAC money is legally separated from Trump’s personal funds. If so, Trump created a separate source of money protected from future lawsuits against him.

In the next 12-18 months the Trump organization is faced with repayment of loans apparently totaling more than $400 million.  Many of the Trump properties were bleeding cash before the pandemic.  Likely worse now.  The problem for Trump is he personally guaranteed most, if not all the loans.  Thus, whatever personal assets he owns are at risk.

Will Trump pay?  Of course not.  He never pays his debts.  When the loans are due, he’ll claim the lenders are out to get him and his only way to get even with the deceitful creditors is to declare bankruptcy…yet again.  Although in bankruptcy he might lose rights to various properties, what does he care?  He’ll walk away without debt.  He also won’t be broke since he’ll have access to $150 million of PAC money. 

If he declares BK, won’t he lose Mar-a-Lago?  Probably not.  Under Florida law one’s “homestead property” is considered an asset exempt from the bankruptcy trustee.  Now you understand why he moved to Florida from New York, which has no protection provision.  So, with all the financial shenanigans, Trump still walks away with no debt, Mar-a-Lago and $150 million.  By any standard a very good con.

In the end, who got conned? Lenders, although most were foreign, especially Russian, and may have been repaid in other ways while Trump was president, and his supporters, many of whom have very limited funds.  (Take heart.  The State of New York seems to be readying a tax fraud case against Trump and family.  Assets exempt under BK law may not be exempt under a tax fraud case.)

Why can’t people understand the obvious? Forget the part about declaring bankruptcy, and just consider Trump asking for money.  He’s claiming the money would be used for his re-election bid. Such a claim should be enough by any standard to raise questions about his credibility.  Plus, there was ample media coverage, save possibly Fox, that most of the contribution to the PAC could be used any way Trump so desired, including personal expenses.

In the US, there have always been con men.  Recall part of Lincoln’s quote, “…you can fool some of the people all the time…”  With so many people are falling for the con, including supposedly educated people, how are we as a society to avoid such a huge con in the future?

In the last entry I suggested children could be taught to think critically by expanding educational focus from STEM to SMELT – Science, Mathematics, Engineering, Liberal-arts, and Technology. SMELT classes would start as early as possible, including kindergarten.

What do we do to educate adults during the years when children are in school and learning to think critically?  What about the adults who cannot understand one dot, let alone connect two or three dots? I confess, I don’t have any concrete suggestions.  Adults are not required to go back to school. As long as no laws are broken, adults are pretty much free to do whatever they want.

With these adults, logic does not seem to work. If you haven’t done so, try and reason with a Trump supporter. Evidence and facts do not matter. Even though the very same behavior would be excoriated if Trump were a Democrat, his followers fully support Trump’s actions as a Republican.

An alternative approach to education is to form another party with values similar to the pre-Trump Republican Party. Maybe values of a pre-Reagan Republican Party.  Reagan began the mantra that government is the problem, not the solution.  Imagine if Reagan had been president during WWII. 

The new Republican Party would appeal to disenfranchised Republicans, many independents and even some Democrats.  A concern is how long before the new party can became a formidable political force.  My initial guess was 4-5 presidential elections.  Then on second thought, I changed to maybe 1-2 presidential elections if the new party were formed around the Lincoln Project. 

A democracy needs at least two strong parties. Right now the US has a cult party, aka Trump Republicans, and a Democratic Party, which has a large umbrella covering a mix of ideas and some anti-Trump Republicans. A new “Lincoln Party” would be a draw for moderates, whether leaning left or right.

Is there a different way to break the Trump cult? The Biden/Harris administration’s commitment to work with both parties will be a start. My cynical side suggests Trump supporters are so brainwashed the Biden/Harris approach will fall on deaf ears.

People who belong to cults are not logical. Even acknowledging Biden as a legitimate president would require the Trump cult to admit a mistake. Since Trump never admits a mistake, why should the Trump cult members admit a mistake?

Okay, enough for this entry. A new “Lincoln Party” seems to be a reasonable solution to rebuilding a democracy that has two viable parties. If you have another idea, please let me know. I’m all ears.