Readers: some of the dialogue in this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Entries addressing events in the The future assume there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.
Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether in the next few years, a revolution in the US is still possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US. Most recent sense check, ENTRY #387.
Some of the entries are part of a series. Several series are available as easy-to-read booklets for download:
- Working with Lee Iacocca after he left Chrysler, 2019Q3 Iacocca Personal Observations.
- GM EV1 — behind-the-scenes events affecting development and introduction of the GM EV1, the first modern electric vehicle. 2020Q1 GM EV-1 Story Behind the Story Booklet
- Coming technology tsunami and the implications for the US, Tech Tsunami Booklet with Supplement
- Trump Supporters Brainwashed? A series discussing why Republics have abandoned basic principals, Are Trump Republicans Brainwashed 2020Q1
- Who took out the Donald? Who/what groups are most likely to “take out” Trump? Who Took Out the Donald Entries with Update
- Revenge Revolution — description of what form the revolution might take, 20 01 07 Start of Revolution
Prelude to the current series of entries: I’ve concluded Trump is a lunatic and the administration filled with lapdogs save a couple of people at CDC. Instead of wasting time commenting on actions by Trump, I thought it more productive to begin discussing what happens in the US once the coronavirus is more under control. #378 began the series. At this point not sure how many entries. Comments and suggestions welcome.
ENTRY #389: We are approaching the end of July 2020. Fewer than 100 days until the presidential election. What’s happening? Just a bit.
- Coronavirus remains unchecked in many locations
- No clear strategy from the White House yet addressing the Coronavirus
- Growing effort to ban the Confederate flag and to remove statues honoring generals who fought against the US
- Growing effort to rename buildings, sports teams, schools, organizations and brand-name products that some group might consider offensive
- Sending non-uniformed federal troops to various cities to arrest often peaceful protestors. Trump ordered the troops “to protect the cities from destruction.” Of course, troops were sent only to cities with Democratic mayors. None of the mayors asked for the troops.
- Sputtering economy that may beginning to backslide. Meanwhile, Senate Republicans are so divided they cannot come to agreement on a stimulus package.
- Cancelling the Republican Convention in Jacksonville, Florida that Trump insisted on moving from Charlotte, NC because the NC governor had mandated rules for wearing masks and limiting the number of people who could gather in public places.
- Icing on the cake is both humorous and tragic. Last week Trump was bragging to Fox News about how he “aced” a test designed to detect likely onset of Alzheimer’s. His remarks were pathetic but memorable. Trump claimed remembering five words, “Person, woman, man, camera and TV,” qualified him as an incredibly smart person. Donald, I hate to tell you, a 5-year old can do the same thing, and the 5-year old can also identify an elephant.
Widespread uncertainty in any environment tends to lead to widespread chaos. No one in the White House, no one in Congress and certainly no one in the public, knows what’s next. Nor does anybody in the Trump administration seem to know how to fix the current problems, or even care about fixing current problems.
The most clear-cut answer to reduce the risk of contracting and to reduce the number of cases of the coronavirus comes from an epidemiologist who merely states facts – wear a mask and stay 6’ away from others. However, even such a simple gesture from a highly trained professional has been met with strong resistance, starting with the Trump administration. Finally, this past week, Trump suggested wearing a mask might be OK, although not for him.
In a series of earlier entries, I noted that many Trump supporters seem to be brainwashed. If there were ever a concrete example of brainwashing, the refusal to wear a mask is it. One does not need an epidemiological degree to understand a face covering will slow penetration of inbound/outbound particles.
I wonder if any of these Republicans have ever watched the movie, “Lawrence of Arabia”. Trumpsters, why do you think the guys riding in the desert on horseback and on camels covered their face with scarves? Without a scarf, blowing sand tends to get in the mouth and nose, and really doesn’t taste great.
Wearing a mask reduces the dispersion of particles when you breathe, cough or sneeze, thereby reducing the likelihood of contaminating others. But since Trump has implied and even stated masks are for wimps, or at least he did so until only a day or so ago, no self-respecting brainwashed Republican wants to be seen wearing a mask.
In their brainwashed state, Republicans don’t need a mask because they are immune from the coronavirus. Only liberals need masks, and who cares if liberals are infected because of some Republican?
The two ends of “should-I-wear-a-mask?” spectrum were highlighted in a couple of recent Facebook posts. One post equated forcing people to wear masks in public locations as similar to Nazi’s forcing Jews to wear a yellow star. Not even remotely a legitimate comparison. But the guy who posted the entry is a hardcore Trumpster.
The other extreme regarding wearing a mask was lighthearted. The post was a quote, “Walmart is only asking you to wear a mask. You can still wear your pajamas and still leave your bra and your teeth at home.”
While Trump politicizing wearing a mask is baffling, even more baffling is the effort by the Trump administration to reduce funds allocated for testing the public for infection. Using Trump’s logic, if there are no tests, then the number of reported infections will decline. The decline in infections will prove that Trump has done a great job addressing the issue. Welcome to logic in Trump World.
Let’s put the brainwashed Trumpsters aside, and address the economy post coronavirus and post Revenge Revolution. The Coronavirus has been the catalyst for accelerating the shift to a new economic model.
In the post-coronavirus world, wealth will still be created the way wealth has always been created – integrating and/or processing individual components so the end product is more valuable than the individual components – aka, manufacturing. Manufacturing categories include a wide range of industries — farming, mining, automotive, software development, construction, etc.
The GDP also includes non-manufacturing categories, or “services.” Services include such industries as travel-and-entertainment – hotels, casinos, air travel, cruise ships – food service, retail, banking, professional services, including medical, and a host of other occupations. Think of services as “transferring money from one pocket to another.” While many services are essential and generate many jobs, no societal wealth is created with the transfer of money between pockets. However, services can result in individuals or companies becoming wealthy.
Like all past major shifts in the economy – agrarian to industrial, e.g. – some individuals and some companies will benefit. Other individuals and companies will be left behind and lose wealth. The shift often can be swift and brutal. An example is the shift from steam-powered locomotives to diesel locomotives in the 1930’s. Within a few years of introduction, diesel locomotives dominated and production of steam locomotives stopped.
Unfortunately, when these economic shifts occur, some in society will be hard hit. If we use the experience of workers during the coronavirus shutdown as a proxy, then workers most at risk might be those in the middle – jobs above entry level that require some level of advanced education but not jobs that require skills for critical thinking.
During the coronavirus shutdown, many people in the United States got a surprise. Critical workers included grocery-store clerks, sanitation workers, emergency-response teams, transit workers and other seemingly out of the limelight, lower-paid employees. While society was surprised about which jobs were “critical,” organizations discovered that many employees were in fact, “non-critical.” Such workers included certain clerical staff, middle managers, sales staff, and other support personnel.
An open question in the post-coronavirus economy is what happens to central cities or other areas where offices are clustered? If people continue to work from home, and only need an office part-time, and if support staffs are reduced, what happens to all the office buildings in say Manhattan, Chicago, Los Angeles, etc.? What happens to the infrastructure – subways and light rail – restaurants and other jobs dependent upon office workers?
People still need space to work and food to eat. However, will those working at home look for a somewhat larger house? Will those working from home begin to order in more meals rather than going to nearby restaurants?
While the future of the economy and future size and style of homes are uncertain, one certainty is the United States and other developed countries are going to face huge dislocations and changes to the norm. Covid-19 accelerated the arrival and intensity of the technology tsunami. The next decade is going to be a wild ride. (More about coming technology tsunami, Tech Tsunami Booklet with Supplement.)
One variable sitting on top of the economic and social changes post coronavirus is action required to mitigate the impact of climate change. The argument is moot whether climate change is natural or man-made. Climate change is here and is not going away.
Next blog entry we’ll discuss how some proposed actions to address climate change might cause further economic and social dislocations. Stay tuned.
How many people do you know have joined a “political tribe”? And as a member of that tribe, no longer question even the most outlandish statements of tribal leaders? Think about how passive these tribal members have become. Do you know of any self-respecting four year-old who would take your statements as gospel and quit asking “why?” Chances are you’ll have a hard time finding a four year-old who fits that category.
I know some blog readers think that lately I’ve been beating up the Republicans too much. Maybe so, but given the behavior of the so-called leaders of the Republican Party, such criticism seems more than justified.
president when such talk from your children would result in punishment?
Why have Republicans decided to abdicate truth in favor of Trump? Why have Republicans decided to abdicate core values of a democracy for a guy who openly courts leaders hostile to the US? Why have Republicans given up having America be the shining light worldwide for fairness and moral standards?
(Just to be clear, Democrats are not completely clean…but the behavior by the Republicans in supporting Trump overwhelms any bad behavior by Democrats Claiming the behavior is equal is a false equivalency.)
Gelly: “Good morning, Jordan. Sorry I didn’t make it back from the conference yesterday. Long day. How was your 
Jordan: “Worked on Walt and millions of hard-core Trump supporters. Say, what’s with the sling on your left arm?”
Jordan: “Any idea how long in the sling?”
Jordan: “You mean such policies as tax cuts for the wealthy, tearing up trade agreements with other countries that the US drafted after WWII, efforts to severely restrict immigration and then allow only people with money to get green cards and finally citizenship. Those kinds of policies?”
Jordan: “Of course. I have three guidelines – really basic questions that might help you. The first question is about tax policy. Ready?”
Jordan: “Question #2. If the Federal government wants to stimulate employment, which policy would be more effective – trying to create even more new jobs when unemployment is already low or trying to create new jobs when unemployment is high and a lot of people ae looking for work?”
Gelly: “When tax revenue is high. That’s when government should pay down debt and save for a rainy day. When the economy starts to get bad is when the government should start spending more money and create more jobs.”
Gelly: “No, that would be stupid. Sounds like a waste of money.”
Jordan: “Short answer is greed. The Donald was never, ever for anyone but the Donald. He did not care how economic policies affected the country as long as he and his family could make more money.”
Gelly: “When you mentioned McConnell you know what popped in my head? The scene from ‘The Graduate’ where Elaine is in Benjamin’s rented room near Berkeley, she’s just screamed and the landlord is headed toward the room and turns to Benjamin. The landlord says to Benjamin, ‘You are scum.’ Seems to fit Trump, McConnell and some others.”
Walt: “I agree it was an interesting experience. Yes, I’ve got time for a couple more questions, then I’m outta here.”
Walt: “Yes. Best I can tell, Woodward is about as credible a journalist as you can find. I’ve never heard what I call a true Washington journalist say he’s anything but top drawer. Forget what the talking heads say about him.”
Jordan: “How’d you react when Trump claimed the book was full of lies and made-up quotes?”
Walt: “Yes, and sometimes at myself for having believed him. Trump lied who knows how many times a day. He was a serial liar…even about stuff that didn’t really matter. He made Pinocchio look like a penny waiting for change. So the serial liar claims this highly respected journalist made up key parts of the book…and then the serial liar expects rational people to believe him. C’mon. At that time Woodward had written I think 7-8 books about presidents. And he’s going to make up quotes?”
Walt: “Woodward’s book title was spot on. The word ‘fear’ was a great descriptor. Fear among the White House staff and the agencies about what crazy stuff Trump might try to do and fear of the consequences for the country.”
Walt: “The scene from the ‘Wizard of Oz’ where the bad witch tries to bully Dorothy to give up her ruby slippers. Then the good witch – in this case Woodward rather than Glenda – shoos off the bad witch and protects Munchkin Land.”
Jordan: “When bad witch was shooed off, the Munchkins…aka Republicans…had the opportunity to return to normal.”
Jordan: “No. Trump’s actions made the polarization much worse. He allowed the wacko fringes to come out of the closet. In fact he seemed to promote the wacko far right. Maybe even worse, his economic policies and efforts to control the judiciary accelerated the country’s slide to becoming a banana republic.”
Walt: “Woodward…along with a few others…confirmed what a lot of people suspected about Trump. Except what Woodward showed the situation was much worse than most anyone thought.”
Jordan: “Or, as they say in Texas, ‘All hat; no cattle.’ That’s the same group who wanted staffers to resign if they didn’t totally agree with Trump. ‘Hail the king. He can do no wrong.’”
Walt: “I couldn’t come up with a good answer. I also thought if the president had been a Democrat and had done 1/10 what the public knew Trump had done, Republicans would have been ranting and raving, demanding impeachment and jail time. Just look at how long Republicans were obsessed with Hillary’s email server. Even when no one could find any evidence of criminal activity, they kept probing. They wouldn’t give up no matter what the evidence was.”
Jordan: “What about Nixon’s behavior?”
Walt: “Trump, on the other hand, set a new standard for illicit behavior. OK, most everybody can overlook being in bed with porn stars. But in bed with the Russians? No way. Think about it. The president of the United States, and much of his immediate family, in bed with the Russians. Some of his sleaziness was well-known and not a surprise. So, with his known background, why did Republicans let him on the ticket, let alone get nominated? When the info on the Russian connection started to come out, why did Republicans sit on their hands and do nothing to get rid of him? I admit I’m not innocent…for a while I retweeted some of his stuff. But what about Republican leaders in the House and Senate? They had access to confidential information and did nothing with it. They’re still in denial. Bunch of whims.”
Jordan: “You know why they’re in denial.”
Walt: “If I read this chart correctly, in about 1900, GDP (Gross Domestic Product) per capita was about the same in the US and Argentina.”
Walt: “At the same time, we had Trump trash talking, claiming the judiciary was crooked. Remind you of someone from the 1930’s? Anyway, when I suggested it was important to rebuild confidence in the judiciary, I never considered that without a fair judiciary, sustained economic growth was not possible.”
Walt: “That’s it. Todd looked more dumbfounded than a deer in headlights. Then he tried to let Giuliani correct his mistake. But Giuliani in true Trump fashion, refused to admit an error and proceeded to straight-jacket himself.”
Walt: “Hadn’t thought of it exactly like you phrased it but Giuliani’s comment was so stupid an alarm bell went off in my head.”
Walt: “Probably. But I’m still embarrassed to talk about my brainwashed state. I mean, when I was brainwashed, Kellyanne Conway’s claim about ‘alternative facts’ never caused me to pause.”
Walt: “I asked him if he was calling me a liar. He asked again for the source of information. I repeated my claim he was calling me a liar…then I left.”
Walt: “Nothing. What still makes me smile was when the owner of the National Enquirer was granted immunity.”
Walt: “Once the brainwashing cap got penetrated, I started to look at the flood of Trump’s tweets a lot more critically. What I noticed was that virtually every tweet laid the blame for a problem on someone else or on some Federal agency. Trump seemed to forget he was in charge.”
Jordan: “OK, now we’re in a new era. Trump is gone and the country has gone through the Revenge Revolution. And you’re more open to crossing party lines. What about other former Trumpsters?”
Gelly: “Nice to be back. Had lots of fun but sorta, kinda missed the office.”
Jordan: “Right. Walt’s coming over sometime late morning.”
Walt: “We had a great time and the fireworks at the club were sensational.”
Walt: “I thought Trump was a blowhard. More of a flake real-estate salesman than a conservative Republican.”
Walt: “Guess I never really considered the experience. Was more intrigued with the idea of change than the quality of the people involved or what they had to do to implement change. Sort of the ends justifying the means.”
Walt: “We’ll talk about troubling later. As I said, I did my own studying trying to understand if Trump was real or not. I spent lots of time watching Fox – mostly Hannity and O’Reilly before he got unfairly railroaded out – and I’d catch Limbaugh on the radio a couple of times a week. The more I listened to these guys the more convinced I was Trump was on the right track.”
Jordan: “Did your studying include reading newspapers – let’s say the Miami Herald, Palm Beach Post, Washington Post, NY Times?”
Jordan: “If I understand correctly, your primary sources of info were Trump, Trump’s tweets, probably the White House press secretary – Sarah Huckabee – and a couple of commentators on Fox. No print media other than an occasional read of the Journal. And no other networks such as PBS, CBS, and say MSNBC.”
Walt: “OK, but you have to buy coffee…and I want a bagel, too.”
Greenie: “I agree the president and cabinet need to pass the same end-of-year test given to 8th graders. Let me add another, ‘Duh, are you serious?’ idea.”
JC: “You mean the idea of treating your neighbor the same way you want to be treated?”
Greenie: “I don’t know if Sessions had kids or grandkids but do you think he’d want his kids or grandkids separated from their parents?”
JC: “Maybe there would a cabinet officer or some high-ranking staffer whose job it is to go around and ask ‘Would you want this whatever-idea-is-being-discussed to happen to your family?’ The person could be titled the ‘sanity-check maven.’”
JC: “Let’s hope going brain-dead is past tense. We have a new opportunity to begin rebuilding American values post Revenge Revolution. Even if it is kindergarten like, using ‘treat thy neighbor’ as a check mark for policies and legislation seems like a good way to keep things from getting too out of control again.”
Greenie: “You mean like when public pressure force king Trump to stop separating children from families at the border?”
JC: “Don’t make me laugh? Not know what an 8th grader know? Still not sure what you’re talking about.”
JC: “Now I think I see where you’re headed. What about Trump implying…or at least asking…if Canada burned down the White House in 1812? No that was the British. Gee, Donald, in case you didn’t know Canada has been a long-time friendly neighbor. Canada is north of the continental US, except for one area near Detroit, and a major trading partner until you tried to ruin the relationship.”
Jordan: “So, Greenie, exactly what are you proposing?”
Greenie: “I don’t know how we’d test for some things but by forcing candidates for Federal office and Cabinet nominees to take 8th-grade end-of-year exams, you can assume that those who pass at least paid some attention to teachers along the way. And anyone who failed…”
Greenie: “Why not be straightforward? No reason to sugarcoat. I think we give some examples of basic information that Trump and the Cabinet members did not know. There are lots of examples where it looked as if they hadn’t graduated from 8th grade and/or should have been wearing dunce caps. It was embarrassing for the country.”