Monthly Archives: June 2020

#386. BREAKING NEWS. Trump Resigns. Republicans in Turmoil about Candidate. (#9 in Series)

21 Sunday Jun 2020

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Readers: some of the dialogue in this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Entries addressing events in the The future assume there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.

Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether in the next few years, a revolution in the US is still possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Most recent sense check, Entry #365.  

Some of the entries are part of a series.  Several series are available as easy-to-read booklets for download:

Prelude to the current series of entries: I’ve concluded Trump is a lunatic and the administration filled with lapdogs save a couple of people at CDC.  Instead of wasting time commenting on actions by Trump, I thought it more productive to begin discussing what happens in the US once the coronavirus is more under control.  #378 began the series. At this point not sure how many entries.  Comments and suggestions welcome.

ENTRY #389 (Yes, it’s a forecast)

BREAKING NEWS.  TRUMP RESIGNS.  In the early weeks leading up to the November 2020 election, most polls, including Fox News, put Trump trailing Joe Biden, sometimes by 10 or more points. While Trump continued to hold rallies, many were sparsely attended. As has been the practice since the failed rally in Tulsa, OK in mid-June, Trump and the White House press secretary blamed the media and “leftist protesters” for sparse attendance at these rallies.

Now, just two weeks before the 2020 election, Trump announced that under doctor’s orders, he was being forced to resign.  The reason? Neither the White House press staff nor the doctor was available to elaborate.  Immediately before the cryptic press release, Trump left unannounced for Mar-a-Lago.  Upon landing he was whisked away with no interaction with the media.

Although unconfirmed at this point, there is strong evidence that Trump is suffering from some type of mental imbalance.  Over the course of his presidency, Trump has been noted for making incoherent statements, often rambling for 15-20 minutes about topics unrelated to the issue at hand. Such ramblings have become more noticeable the past year, and especially as the election date grew closer.

Since before taking office there has been speculation that Trump was suffering from early-stage Alzheimer’s, which had affected his father, Fred.  Another possible diagnosis is early-stage Parkinson’s disease.  In addition to the diminished mental acuity, Trump has displayed a growing number of physical limitations – difficulty walking and requiring two hands to drink a glass of water, for example.

However, the real reason behind Trump’s resignation remains unclear. Several staffers inside the White House indicated Trump was so fearful of losing, he begged the doctor for an excuse to resign.

Whatever the exact reason, Trump’s resignation has created chaos for Republicans.  In most states, the deadline has passed for changes to ballots for the November election, even if the designated candidate has died prior to the election.  As a result, Republicans are left with a candidate who is now ineligible to take office.  Although there is no precedent for presidential elections, it appears current VP Mike Pence becomes the Republican candidate for president with no designated VP.

The far-right has reacted by claiming the so-called “deep state” forced Trump to resign.  Fox Entertainment Network talking heads Sean Hannity and Tucker Carlson supported claims from the far right and encouraged Republicans to forcibly prevent a Democrat from occupying the White House, even if elected by voters.

While no physical clashes have occurred, many Republican and Democratic governors have put the National Guard on notice for possible duty over the next few months. Most of the same governors also have asked the US military for help if needed to quell any major disturbances.  More to come.

 

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#385. Is a Rational Conversation about Racial Injustice Possible? (#8 re US Post COVID-19)

12 Friday Jun 2020

Posted by in Gov't Policy, Personal Stories, Rebranding Black Community, Societal Issues, Uncategorized

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Readers: this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.

Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether in the next few years, a revolution in the US is still possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Most recent sense check, Entry #365.  

Some of the entries are part of a series.  Several series are available as easy-to-read booklets for download:

Prelude: I’ve concluded Trump is a lunatic and the administration filled with lapdogs save a couple of people at CDC.  Instead of wasting time commenting on actions by Trump, I thought it more productive to begin discussing what happens in the US once the coronavirus is more under control.  #378 began the series. At this point not sure how many entries.  Comments and suggestions welcome.

ENTRY #385: An unexpected addition to the post-COVID-19 conversation is whether widespread racism exists in the United States. While such a discussion comes to the fore periodically, the current discussion seems to be more intense and have garnered a broader audience.

As usual in this administration, comments from Trump have created frustration and anger among most blacks and many whites. The event that precipitated the current conversation was not Trump but the gross misconduct of the Minneapolis Police in the death of George Floyd.

Although Mr. Floyd had a minor rap sheet, by all accounts from bystanders, Floyd’s behavior did not justify actions taken by the police – a knee to the neck for nearly nine minutes, with the cop apparently unconcerned about a possible video from a bystander.

The protest against the police following Floyd’s death started with the release of the video.  The protests started in Minneapolis-St. Paul then spread quickly throughout the country. Protests have continued for more than two weeks, and as of today, still continue.

Actions taken by the Trump administration have created more anger and frustration. The most egregious action seemed to be when Trump, using a loophole in the law that allowed military troops deployed in Washington DC to bring protests “under control.”   Some of the protests included looting.

Last weekend (06/06-07/2020) Trump ordered Attorney General William Barr to have the military troops disperse peaceful protesters away from Lafayette Park. Protesters were met with “chemical” smoke (likely pepper spray or teargas), rubber bullets and low-hovering helicopters.

Why such drastic action? Was the White House in danger of being overrun?  Was there extensive looting?  No and no.  The protesters were cleared by military troops so Trump could walk across the street for a photo op at Saint John’s Episcopal church, often referred to as the “President’s Church.”  Trump, the paragon of Christianity, stood in front of the church holding a Bible.  What more could his hard-core base want than a picture of Trump in front of a church holding a Bible?

As the second week of protests progressed, conversations started to include demands for reducing funding for police departments, and in some cases, eliminating police departments. Other demands focused on improved healthcare, better education, improved housing and some discussions about reparations for blacks.

I’ve tried to listen and understand. Over the last week or so, I’ve also spent 4-5 hours on Skype with a long-time friend whom we met in our early days in Charlotte.  While we have great respect for one another, our ethnicity and backgrounds are vastly different. He grew up in eastern North Carolina.  His parents were sharecroppers with limited education, probably 8th grade. Interestingly, all six children of the sharecropper parents went to college.

My friend’s wife, whom he met in Charlotte. as did we, is a high-energy go-getter who’s had a very successful career in the insurance industry. One assignment was managing an insurance company’s operation in a very large developing country.  The couple has two children – one in college in California and the other finishing high school.

Our recent Skype conversations have included him describing the experiences of an educated, affluent black family with different police departments. Over the years I’ve heard bits and pieces of some of the stories.  However, until this series of calls and then when I read his detailed accounts, which I encouraged him to write, I never realized the entire story. Not pretty.

The Skype discussions also included what he viewed as ideas to address inequities between the races. Before we started that conversation, he said “Some of what I’m going to tell you will make you uncomfortable.”  He was right.

Every now and then I asked a question.  One question was, “How can some members of the black community seemingly justify looting?  How can one justify stealing, especially stealing from a neighborhood store?”  (His response paraphrased), “Whites have stolen from blacks forever. Some blacks feel the only way to get the white man’s attention is to steal from him.”  I found that rationale incredibly disturbing and still have not processed the idea.

Another suggestion was blacks should receive reparations from whites. The rationale, he explained, was if Republicans in the Senate were willing to spend $4,000,000,000,000 for a coronavirus stimulus package, they obviously didn’t care about deficits. Therefore, why not spend another $4,000,000,000,000 as reparations for blacks? Besides, he continued, the $100,000 per person (black population 45+ million so a bit high) reparation would flow back into the economy as recipients bought new cars, bought new houses, took vacations, etc.

At the end of that Skype call, the most recent, I indicated, yes some demands during the call made me feel uncomfortable. I also reminded him that I had listened carefully and didn’t challenge any of his statements. But the next call would be my turn. During that call, I might make some comments that made him uncomfortable.

What are we going to talk about the next call? First, I don’t believe the conversation about racism across the US should be viewed as a zero-sum game. If the parties involved will listen, and be willing to accept reasonable solutions, then everyone can come out ahead.  If one of the sides insists on their “solution” or none at all, then likely no progress will be made.

To me, the only issue that does not need a lot of debate is whether most organizations have some employees who are not performing appropriately and need to leave. Such organizations include police departments.  That conversation needs to include the police unions.  I understand the purpose and value of police unions. But the unions need to quit overprotecting the bad cops. Overprotecting is not good for the entire police force, not good for the union and not good for the community.

As far as the rest of the demands, I have attempted to frame the questions to allow more than one view to be discussed and evaluated.  The questions are:

  1. If every other ethnic group, many of which experienced extreme and overt discrimination, has been able to get off the bottom rung of the economic ladder and migrate toward the middle class, even though the journey often has taken several generations, then should blacks study these ethnic groups and consider a similar path? What’s preventing blacks from doing the same things as these other ethnic groups did?  While the situation for each ethnic group was somewhat different, the path followed seems somewhat similar.
  2. If there are reparations, is it fair to deduct certain amounts to compensate or repay taxpayers for the extra cost of education, the extra cost of welfare, the extra cost of incarceration, etc.?
  3. Wouldn’t money allocated for reparations be better spent on education, healthcare and housing? What happened to teaching someone to fish?
  4. If the percentage of blacks incarcerated is disproportionately high compared to the population, what percentage of crimes are committed by blacks? One can argue about the fairness of sentences for certain crimes, but that is a different issue than the percentage of crimes committed by blacks.  (And eliminate most traffic violations from the calculation.) Is there a reason beyond just “police harassment”?
  5. What percentage of businesses in predominantly black communities are owned by blacks? If the percentage is low, then why aren’t there programs by wealthy blacks to encourage and support such businesses?  Rebuilding black-owned businesses may be even more important post COVID-19.  A report by CBS News (06/12/2020) indicated that when restrictions are lifted, up to 40% of the black-owned businesses may not reopen compared to less than 20% of white-owned businesses. The higher closure rate was attributed in part to lack of available financing.
  6. Is it fair to demand quotas for white players in the NFL and the NBA? (Yes, that’s a joke.)

More to come.

#384 1967 Detroit Riots: Lessons for Cities and Trump Administration

02 Tuesday Jun 2020

Posted by in Causes of the Revolution, Gov't Policy, Lessons of Revolution, Societal Issues, Uncategorized

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Readers: this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.

Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether in the next few years, a revolution in the US is still possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Most recent sense check, Entry #365.  

Some of the entries are part of a series.  Several series are available as easy-to-read booklets for download:

Prelude: I’ve concluded Trump is a lunatic and the administration filled with lapdogs save a couple of people at CDC.  Instead of wasting time commenting on actions by Trump, I thought it more productive to begin discussing what happens in the US once the coronavirus is more under control.  #378 began the series. At this point not sure how many entries.  Comments and suggestions welcome.

The topic of ENTRY #384 was not anticipated.  The civil unrest this past week may become more prevalent than anyone would like. Unfortunately, the unrest likely will continue well past COVID-19, and thus a topic for this series.

ENTRY #384 BEGINS:  The past week there have been rallies in numerous cities protesting the treatment of Mr. George Floyd by Minneapolis Police. More and more of these rallies have evolved into riots with extensive looting and burning of public and private property.  With Trump’s proclamation Monday evening, June 1, that maximum force, including US military personnel, could be used to quell all protests, the number and intensity may increase and the tactics more warlike.

Apparently the Donald forgot to read his history books and skipped classes as well on military strategy.  Using traditional brute force in a guerilla war, which is what is likely to evolve after the proclamation, rarely works, if ever.  The list is long of examples of brute force failing to stop guerilla warfare, including Vietnam.

Watching these riots has been painful. I can tell you from personal experience, it is quite scary to be caught in the middle of the violence itself.

In summer 1967, we were living in a suburb immediately north of Detroit. I was just months into my job at Cadillac Division of General Motors.

One Sunday afternoon our neighbor, a manager of a credit agency housed in Detroit, said he’d heard there was some disturbance downtown and wanted to go check on his office. I offered to accompany him and off we went.

What we got was a whole lot more than anticipated. When we arrived in front of the office, housed in the Fox Theater building, there were people everywhere. A liquor store next to the theater was being looted as was a TV shop next door to that.

We looked to be some of the first “outsiders” to arrive at this location because while we were still in the car, a number of police cars pulled in behind us. No, we weren’t stupid. It was time to get out of Dodge and we left.

Overnight there were more riots in selected parts of Detroit but there was no declaration of an emergency. So, Monday morning I headed to work. The main Cadillac plant was on the west side and several miles from downtown Detroit. Rioting continued as did the fires. Midday Monday a number of us stood on an enclosed walkway between the fourth floors of two different buildings. We could see parts of the city clearly burning.

Cadillac closed the offices and the assembly plant that afternoon and I headed back to the apartment using an alternate route that was even farther west and away from the activity. I returned without incident but was left with the nagging question, “Are we really safe?”

The apartment complex was just on the other side of the dividing line between Detroit and Southfield – 8-Mile Road. The apartment complex was not gated so there was nothing to stop rioters from entering. Fortunately, the rioting did not spread to our immediate area.

Rioting did continue to spread within the City of Detroit. Rioting became so extensive, Governor George Romney (Mitt’s father) asked for Federal assistance and members of the US Army’s 82nd and 101st Airborne Divisions were deployed to Detroit. In addition to light-infantry weapons, the units were supported by heavily armored tanks.

If you’ve never witnessed in real time the firepower of a .50-caliber machine gun mounted on a tank, visualize this. The machine gun is aimed at a sniper holed up in say the 5th floor of a brick building. The first few rounds from the machine gun literally blow away the brick facade and then subsequent rounds penetrate the interior of the building. That scene was fairly common in Detroit as the military attempted to control sniper fire.

Thus, in the span of a few days, much of Detroit became a war zone. The devastation is hard to describe and imagine. Some areas of Detroit have not yet recovered, more than 50+ years later. Yes, Detroit had some other problems as well but I think what tipped over the City was the 1967 riots.

What caused the riots? Was there an incident like George Floyd in Minneapolis or Rodney King in Los Angeles? On the surface, the riots were precipitated by a seemingly innocuous single incident. In the early hours of Sunday morning, the Detroit police raided and closed a blind pig in a black neighborhood (illegal bar often with some gambling as well).

While black residents were frustrated by the raid on the blind pig, residents housed a long-standing frustration with treatment by the Detroit Police Department, then mostly white. Economics was a contributing factor, but much less so than most people think. In the 1960’s, the US economy and especially Detroit’s economy were strong. Many black residents were employed at one of the many new-car/truck assembly plants or component plants in and around Detroit.

Further, all hourly employees in those plants were members of the UAW with extensive health benefits, multi-week vacation and a base wage that was sufficient for full-time workers to be classified as “middle class.” Detroit also had a relatively strong black-owned business community.

What happened to Detroit following the riots? Many whites fled the City for the suburbs. Auto companies gradually closed many of the assembly and component plants, although there were other reasons for that as well. Detroit became a shell of its former self. Only in the last decade, roughly 50 years after the riots, has Detroit started to rebound. New businesses are moving in. Housing is being rebuilt and population is gradually expanding.

What’s the lesson, or the caution, for other cities experiencing riots? While there is no simple answer, at a minimum, city leaders, public and private, need to work closely with citizens and be alert to problems with city services, whether garbage pickup, water quality (as in Flint), or unsavory or unethical actions by law enforcement. Understanding these problems, and making an effort to resolve the problems before getting out of control, will help mitigate the potential for disturbance.

An example of such an effort is the sheriff of Genesee County Michigan, north of Detroit and home to Flint, MI.  The sheriff has been working closely with residents throughout the county.  So far, there have been no unruly protests in Flint and other cities in the county.

Another issue that seems important, and one that does not get discussed enough publicly, is encouraging local residents to become business owners in their community. Maybe more black-owned businesses would prevent some of the insidious looting that occurred during recent protests. Why would you loot a store in your neighborhood that is providing critical services, and owned by one of your neighbors?

Those who loot or encourage looting neighborhood stores should not complain because few, if any, national chains open neighborhood stores. Why should these companies risk capital, if the stores are targeted for looting?

Finally, I think any honest conversation about unfair treatment, discrimination, and associated issues needs to ask the following questions. “How did other ethnic groups overcome what was often overt and brutal discrimination? What did these ethnic groups do, sometimes over several generations, to reduce discrimination and make better lives for themselves?”  The answers could provide some guidance for all sides.  Answers will also indicate solutions are never easy and never one sided.