Category Archives: Back Asswards Thinking

#432. Say It Ain’t So, Joe

19 Sunday Dec 2021

Posted by in Back Asswards Thinking, Common Sense Policies, Societal Issues, Uncategorized

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Welcome to a discussion about the upcoming 5th Revolution in the US, which I’ve titled the “Revenge Revolution.” For more about the Revenge Revolution and the author, Entry #1.  Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether a revolution in the US is possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US. Entry #430 was the most recent “sense check.” 

BEGIN ENTRY #432:  My computer is having an extremely bad hair day so while it’s attempting to get ready for work, I thought I might draft another blog entry.

Early Sunday, 12/19/21, Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia announced on Fox that he could not support the “social components” of president Biden’s Build Back Better legislation. Excuse me, Joe, where have you been that it has taken so long to decide?

Were you out soliciting more funds from the coal industry? How about soliciting funds from some countries that want to see the US fail?

You don’t need to conduct a lot of in-depth analysis to decide whether to support legislation that expands infrastructure as well as eliminates some glaring social inequities.  I realize it’s hard to see over the transom of your yacht, but your constituents in West Virginia don’t have a yacht and need help.

Say what you want or maybe even pray what you want, but the coal industry is DOA for any climate-change plan designed to save the planet from self-destruction.  You might not want coal to die but everyone under age 30 is going to kill it.  Besides coal-mining jobs in West Virginia have been declining for decades.

The problem for your West Virginia constituents is how to migrate quickly to and become competitive in an ever-increasing digital economy. West Virginia currently ranks 44th among states in the level of education, #50 in infrastructure and #50 in healthcare. Pretty good ratings, huh?  Obviously, the current approach is not working and many of your constituents lack access to good health care and good Internet services.

Your logic is a bit different.  Rather than help your brethren in WV, I’ll make up some excuse why key parts of the Build Back Better legislation can’t be supported.  I’ll claim, “I can’t support because the legislation will add to the Federal deficit.”  BS, Joe.  The legislation pays for itself by simply rescinding the Trump tax legislation that transferred even more wealth to the already wealthy.  What world are you living in?

Did I hear you say, “You know, we can’t have those social programs that reshape society. The programs like childcare, more schooling, a cleaner environment. Not only do those kind of programs cost too much but the programs are un-American.  The same goes for welfare, Social Security and Medicare.  Oops, I wasn’t supposed to mention those last three.“

The world understands that Republicans, other than Liz Cheney and the guy from Michigan, have no balls. Well, you know what I mean.  But, don’t you claim to be a moderate Democrat, not some wimpy Republican?  

Here’s what you need to do. Go ask your constituents in WV whether they want expanded infrastructure, cleaner air, cleaner water and better healthcare. And, do they want a chance to get a job that won’t kill them so early in life?

If the majority of West Virginians say they don’t want those programs, then vote no on the social part of Build Back Better. If the majority of West Virginians want those programs, then vote to support the scial part of Build Back Better. Joe, deciding how to vote is not complicated. Besides, you already committed to vote support. Reneging on your promise negates whatever credibility you might have left.

It is Manchin’s kind of thinking, or lack thereof, that contributes to the likelihood of a 5th US Revolution, which seems aptly labeled as the “Revenge Revolution.” END OF #432.

Other Topics. Interested in more info about climate change, what’s required to electrify a fleet of cars/trucks, what it was like to work day-to-day with Lee Iacocca and an array of other topics? Visit another page of this website, https://usrevolution5.com/jrd-thought-comments/

#429. Stupid Is as Stupid Does.

12 Friday Nov 2021

Posted by in Back Asswards Thinking, Post Trump Presidency, Societal Issues, Stupid Is as Stupid Does, Uncategorized

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Welcome to a discussion about the upcoming 5th Revolution in the US, which I’ve titled the “Revenge Revolution.” For more about the Revenge Revolution and the author, Entry #1.  Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether a revolution in the US is possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Entry #400 was the most recent “sense check.” 

ENTRY #429: The past couple of entries I’ve tried to move beyond the irrationality of certain members of Congress and irrationality of certain voters. Why bang your head against the wall trying to understand their logic?

Well, I’ve been unable to move on so one more entry addressing irrationality. This time, however, it’s not just members of Congress. We pretty much know where they stand, other than Senator Krysten Sinema (D, AZ).

What has baffled me the past week or so has been the “rationale” of voters in the Virginia gubernatorial election.  According to a number of interviews published in different media, voters in Virginia were frustrated with the Biden administration because not all promised legislation has been passed, gas prices have increased and there are some supply chain hiccups that might affect Christmas shopping. 

OK, so you’re frustrated. What’s the solution? Elect a Republican governor who is a former investment banker and who is supported by Trump. Forget that the underlying causes of most of your frustrations were not the fault of the Biden administration but occurred under Trump and even under some earlier administrations. 

For example, the shortage of truckers can be traced to efforts beginning during the Nixon administration to deregulate the trucking industry.  The shortage of long-haul truckers can be linked, in part, to consumers ordering more on line rather than buying at the store.  If you’re a long-haul trucker, why go on the road sometimes for weeks at a time when you can work regular hours delivering packages locally, make probably the same amount of money and be home at night? And, you’re surprised there’s a shortage of long-haul truckers?

And, Virginia voters, what about your frustration with you just electedthose products being produced overseas rather than the US?  Forget that many investment bankers, like the incoming governor, have encouraged companies to relocate manufacturing overseas, which exacerbated the supply-chain problem.

Just for reference, the voters frustrated with Biden need to ask themselves exactly what did the Republicans and Trump do for you and most voters during the four years in office? Well, the Trump administration’s biggest piece of legislation, the tax cut, transferred substantially more wealth to the already wealthy and reduced the amount of income tax corporations pay.   The net result of Trump’s major legislation?  Reduced revenue to the Federal government so the federal deficit ballooned.  And the other result was the tax cut transferred the responsibility for paying that debt to you, the other 98% of the population.  Good deal, huh?

Then Trump implemented trade policies that helped create the foundation for inflation. Remember those tariffs that Trump promoted?  Trump made sure that tariffs were put on many products, including those from our neighbors with whom we trade the most – Canada and Mexico.  Virginia voters who do think pays those tariffs?  The tariffs are not paid by the exporting country.  The tariffs are paid by the importers and then passed on to you, the consumer.  I guess the Trump administration never mentioned that.

The icing on that piece of “illogical cake” the Virginia voters ate was Trump publicly and emphatically proclaiming that Covid was not a problem.  Hey, only 15 people got sick and it’s just like the flu.  The “ala mode” for the cake was Trump and his minions claiming that climate change was a hoax.

You say, “Aside from all you just said, Biden has been in office long enough to solve all those problems.  He’s been in the White House almost 10 months.”

Let’s put 10 months in perspective.  When those criticizing Biden as taking too long are asked about fixing problems in other organizations, say rebuilding a college football team, the time horizon is quite different.  According to the Biden criticizers, to turn the fortunes of a football team is incredibly complicated and the head coach needs a minimum two years and usually 3-4 years.  Fans need to be patient.”  Mmm, I guess a football team is more difficult to manage than the Federal government. 

Another example of Republican back-asswards thinking occurred during the recent vote on the legislation to upgrade and repair significant portions of the US infrastructure.  Every state and likely every Congressional district will benefit from this legislation.  The legislation will make the US more competitive and address many of the frustrations expressed by Virginia voters.

The legislation passed the Senate a couple of months ago with strong bipartisan support.  Even Mitch McConnell voted for it.

So what was the reaction of House Republicans to the infrastructure legislation?  Don’t vote to help constituents!  Don’t vote to help make America more competitive internationally!  Don’t vote to create jobs! The legislation passed with 13 Republicans voting in favor and all but a handful of Democrats, who opposed the legislation to show support for the Build Back Better legislation.  

What was the response from Republican leadership in the House? Threatening to yank any committee assignments from Republicans who supported their constituents. Some Republicans who voted for the legislation were labeled as traitors.

Traitors to whom?  All elected representatives whether Republican, Democrat or independent take an oath to uphold the US Constitution.  Republicans please explain to me why voting for legislation that directly benefits the people you represent is being a traitor.   The logic displayed by Virginians voting for a Trump-supported Republican and the Republican leadership in the House punishing members for helping their constituents confirms the saying, “stupid is as stupid does.” 

Next entry I’ll try to move on to a different topic.  

Other Topics. Interested in more info about climate change, what’s required to electrify a fleet of cars/trucks, what it was like to work day-to-day with Lee Iacocca and an array of other topics? Visit another page of this website, https://usrevolution5.com/jrd-thought-comments/

#427 Excuse Me Senator. Is Your Name Manchin or Manson?

20 Wednesday Oct 2021

Posted by in Back Asswards Thinking, Gov't Policy, Uncategorized

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Welcome to a discussion about the upcoming 5th Revolution in the US, which I’ve titled the “Revenge Revolution.” For more about the Revenge Revolution and the author, Entry #1.  Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether a revolution in the US is possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Entry #400 was the most recent “sense check.” 

ENTRY #427:Senator Manchin has been in the news a lot the past couple of weeks. Late the week of 10/11/2021 he publicly stated he would not support taxpayer funding for the development of zero-carbon electricity generation. OK, Joe, what about billions and billions of taxpayer subsidies for coal extraction and oil-and-gas drilling? Tell me what’s the difference?

Not all readers believe that if CO2 emissions continue unchecked, the earth could begin to begin to become uninhabitable by 2100. There’s lots of science and data to support such a statement but some don’t believe in science.

Clean electricity had been a key element in president Biden’s Build Back Better program and a major step toward the US dramatically slowing the growth of CO2 emissions. The Biden administration’s plan would have given the US a good chance of doing its part to limit global warming to 2oC by 2100. Given the unfathomable level of denial of science by Republicans, Joe Manchin might be able to take credit for singularly causing the world to speed up the path to catastrophe.

For you climate-change deniers, remember how Trump claimed COVID-19 was under control? “We’re very, very ready for this,” Trump said, adding that only 15 people had contracted the virus in the U.S. and that all were expected to recover. A mere 700,000 deaths later and COVID-19 is still not under control. Deniers – who ya gonna blame?

Given the severity of the potential consequences of doing nothing to address climate change, I thought an open letter to Senator Manchin might be appropriate. Yes, the letter is sarcastic and a bit edgy but I think Senator Manchin deserves this type letter.

The salutation evolved from a comment made during a recent call about climate change. One person on the call accidentially referred to Senator Manchin as “Manson.” That led to a few chuckles. However morbid the circumstances that made Charles Manson famous, Senator Manchin’s decision to refuse to recognize the need to address global warming will have far worse consequences.

Dear Senator Charles Manson:

Thank you for taking a strong stand against generating clean electricity, thereby intensifying the effects of global warming. All the children in the neighborhood and in the family appreciate your efforts to make the earth uninhabitable and shorten their lives.

The children asked if you could share some of the payoff money you received from the fossil-fuel industry. They want to buy some candy before it’s too late.

We also appreciate your efforts to make the US look like a third-world country that has a non-functioning government. President Biden especially appreciates your efforts to diminish his credibility with other countries at the upcoming conference to address global warming.

Rarely in US history has a single senator had such a widespread negative impact on mankind. You should be proud of your accomplishments. (End of letter)

Where the negotiations in Congress go to try and save the provision to fund generation of clean electricity, I don’t know, although I do understand some progress has been made. When thinking about how to solve the problem with the holdout Senators, I was reminded of a scene from the movie, “Patton.” In the scene Patton’s troops are marching through Sicily toward Palermo. The terrain is hilly, the road narrow and the troops are strung out for probably a mile.

The journey is high risk because enemy aircraft can easily strafe the column and there is little protection along the road. Then the column stops. Patton drives to the front and finds a cart with two donkeys blocking a critical bridge. The farmer tries to get the donkeys to move but no luck. The solution was a bit inelegant but effective.

Patton shoots the donkeys, dumps them off the bridge and the march proceeds. When trying to persuade Senators Manchin and Sinema, president Biden might do well to take a lesson from General Patton. Too much is at stake for the US and the world to let a couple of people get in the way.

Other Topics. Interested in more info about climate change, what’s required to electrify a fleet of cars/trucks, what it was like to work day-to-day with Lee Iacocca and an array of other topics? Visit another page of this website, https://usrevolution5.com/jrd-thought-comments/

#425. Republicans: “I Get to Buy but You Have to Pay.”

02 Saturday Oct 2021

Posted by in Back Asswards Thinking, Societal Issues, Stupid Is as Stupid Does, Uncategorized

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Welcome to the some discussion about the upcoming 5th Revolution in the US, which I’ve titled the “Revenge Revolution.” For more about the Revenge Revolution and the author, Entry #1.  Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether a revolution in the US is possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Entry #400 was the most recent “sense check.” 

For many years, Republicans have promoted the idea that the government should be run like a personal household. Don’t spend more than you earn.  In that ideal Republican household, if you pay your debts on time everything will be OK.

Despite the assertions, even most Republicans don’t live in their ideal household.  For example, the vast majority of people buying a home don’t pay cash.  Rather they secure a mortgage for 3-4x their annual income and then repay the mortgage (loan) over 25-30 years.  If home buyers were required to pay the cost up front, very few people would own homes. 

“But home buying is different,” you say, “because buying a home is an investment. And you still have to pay back the loan, even if it takes 30 years.”

True. So why do Republicans insist that government expenditures for infrastructure — roads, bridges, transit, airports, etc. – have to be paid for out of this year‘s budget? Isn’t a road that will last at least 50, if not 100 years, with some maintenance, an investment, just like the house?

Now, let’s turn to paying for purchases. If a household buys groceries, some computer equipment, office supplies, maybe some clothing and puts the purchases on a credit card, the household still owes the money.  And the credit card company still has to be paid, right?

Apparently Republicans don’t think so.  During the Trump administration, Republicans deliberately decided to reduce household revenue – income to the government – by reducing taxes on the wealthy.  Then, rather than reducing expenditures because income was less, the Trump administration continued to buy lots of stuff and put those purchases on a credit card.

Now it’s time to pay off the credit card. And guess what? Republicans in the Senate and the House are saying, “Nope, the credit card debt is not our problem.  Even though we ran up the debt, we Republicans refuse to pay.“

What if everyone ran their household like Republicans?  Cut your income, continue to buy goods and services on a credit card, then refuse to pay the credit card company (lender)?  How much more credit do you think the lender would be willing to provide?

The approach taken by Republicans is pure Trump.  Anyone who has lived or worked in New York sometime in the last 40-50 years is likely familiar with how Trump operated his businesses.  Trump ran up debts, blamed the vendors and then refused to pay. 

After getting stiffed by Trump, lenders in the US refused to do business with him.  As incoming president, from all indications, his primary sources of capital were from Deutsche Bank and the Russians. 

Republicans, now the party of Trump, have adopted the same mantra – “Screw you. Not my fault.  I’m not paying. The debt is your problem.”  Mitch McConnell seems to be first in line kissing the Almighty Donald’s screw-the-creditors debt ring. 

The Republicans, who claim to be the party of savvy business people and fiscal responsibility, seem willing to allow the US to default on its debt for the first time in US history.  “Relax,” you say, “You’re blowing any debt default out of proportion.” 

If you are a Republican and support the actions of Trump and/or Mitch McConnell, why don’t you go ask someone how easy it is to get credit after they’ve defaulted on their debt? If someone who’s defaulted can get credit at all, the loan comes with lots of restrictions and a stiff interest rate.

So why are the Republicans behaving so irresponsibly? My only conclusion, as I’ve stated the number of times in various blog entries, is the Republicans have been brainwashed.

If they’re not brainwashed, why would Republicans pay debts they incurred while Trump was in office, then not pay debts incurred while Trump was in office after Biden became president? Trump’s debts are Trump’s debts.  You just can’t ignore then, unless, of course, you’re a Republican.    

Ok, let’s assume the Republicans are just playing politics by refusing to raise the debt ceiling. You’d think if someone was taking such a stand, they’d ask for something in return.  But like Trump, who has demonstrated repeatedly to be one of the world’s worst negotiators, Republicans are not asking for anything in return.  Rather Republicans are willing to put a gun to their heads of all Americans and fire away for no particular reason.

Republicans are so brainwashed, apparently they think only Democrats will suffer if the US defaults on its debt. Republicans are taking the same approach to addressing climate change. The rise in the earth’s temperature will only affect Democrats. 

From the beginning of the Obama administration, Republicans have categorically opposed whatever the Democrats proposed, no matter how many Republicans might benefit and no matter how much the proposal would protect US interests.  The answer to every idea from Democrats has been “No!”

Republicans ask yourself, “With a response of ‘no’ by Republican leadership regardless of the proposal, whose best interests are Trump and McConnell supporting? The best interests of US citizens?”  If you said “yes,” you’ll believe almost anything.

The behavior of Trump and McConnell is not benefiting the US but benefitting the Russians and the Chinese. “That can’t be,” you say.  Well, I say, take another hard look and then follow where Trump and McConnell are getting their money.

The Trump businesses (and thereby the family) have been funded by the Russians for some time. Mitch McConnell, through marriage to Elaine Chao – Secretary of Transportation in the Trump administration – is tied to Chinese money. You keep thinking about the connections and follow the money.

More later, especially how the behavior increases the likelihood of a 5th US Revolution, the Revenge Revolution.

Other Topics. Interested in more info about climate change, what’s required to electrify a fleet of cars/trucks, what it was like to work day-to-day with Lee Iacocca and an array of other topics? Visit another page of this website, https://usrevolution5.com/jrd-thought-comments/

#418. Republicans, Patriots or Parrots?

06 Tuesday Jul 2021

Posted by in Back Asswards Thinking, Causes of the Revolution, Societal Issues, Uncategorized

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Readers: The entries in this blog are built around the assumption there will be a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.  Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether a revolution in the US is possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Entry #400 was the most recent “sense check.” 

I continue to be struck by how the Republican Party has only one answer to any proposal. “We can’t do that,” sometimes phrased as “That won’t work!”

Like a parrot with a very limited vocabulary, the “can’t”/”won’t” response is never followed by a suggestion how to correct what is perceived to be the problem with an idea.  No Republican seems to have any meaningful ideas on how to solve problems.  Pardon me, the “Republicants” do have one recommended solution no matter what the problem is.  The solution is, “Cut taxes for the wealthy because…”  Why would cutting taxes fix the problem?  Oh, it doesn’t matter why.  And it doesn’t matter to Republicants there is ZERO empirical evidence to support their logic.  For Republicants, the answer is, “Just cut taxes.”

A few days ago I watched a hearing held by the House Select Committee on Climate Change. My interest was twofold. One, I’ve spent much of the last 30 years focusing on developing practical solutions to help reduce emissions, primarily CO2 emissions.  A current project is working with a group of fellow MIT alumni on that very issue. The second reason I watched was one of the people testifying has been a longtime colleague and wanted to view his testimony.

Of the three people testifying that day, two had real-world experience in implementing practical solutions to reduce CO2 emissions.  While their party affiliation was not discussed in the testimony, because they were working to reduce CO2 emissions, some Republicans on the committee, maybe all Republicans, apparently thought the two were some of “those liberals.”

The third person testifying was a climate-change denier.  Ironically, in his remarks he actually raised a couple of valid points about issues that need to be addressed. But like most every Republicant inside the Beltway, he offered no solutions.

One Republicant House member decided no serious questions were necessary and instead used his 5 minutes to put on a good show for his right-wing constituents. Some of his diatribe included, “We can’t afford the Green New Deal. The Green New Deal won’t work! Instead, we need to build more roads to reduce congestion.”

Building more roads is not a solution to climate change. Whether or not you believe in science, burning gasoline creates CO2.  CO2 is a major contributor to climate change and global warming.  Climate change is real and no amount of denial, diversion or blaming someone else will stop the impact.

I’m sure many climate-change deniers don’t care, but the Green New Deal is a set of ideas and not any legislative proposal. From a Republicant perspective, I guess the country cannot afford to even discuss new ideas.  Why?  Yikes, discussions might lead to answers.   

Republicants claim to be objective and fiscally responsible, well at least when a Democrat is president.  So let’s just look at the cost of addressing climate change.  The cost of climate change maybe can best be described by a commercial from the 1970’s/1980’s for FRAM oil filters, “You can pay me now or pay me later.”  Except the payment for climate change will be exponentially greater the longer we wait.

In addition, the cost of waiting will also include excessive loss of human life, excess loss of wildlife, and may result in an uninhabitable earth. But no, let’s not discuss climate change.  Let’s deny climate change and pretend it doesn’t exist. 

While we’re pretending climate change doesn’t exist, let’s pretend the FBI or some liberal group, you know that Antifa group, stormed the Capitol 01/06/21 to make Trump look bad.  Since someone else was responsible, let’s investigate it.  No, no, I really meant to say “Let’s not investigate the Capitol insurrection.  Well, I’m not sure what I mean other than “no.’”   (Republicants have a selective memory problems as well.  Saying “no” to examining the cause of the insurrection seems a bit different than the wild enthusiasm by Republicants to investigate Benghazi.  Jim Jordan, cat got your tongue?)   

“Quit trying to confuse me.  Here’s what I know.  Instead of spending money on addressing climate change, America should spend more money on roads and drill for more oil.  Our politicians should start acting like real Americans should act and quit acting like a bunch of liberal wimps.  Stay tough and keep saying no, just like we did when Obama was president.”

This kind of “Always say no” mentality is a major contributor to why the US is headed for a 5th Revolution and why I’ve labeled the revolution the Revenge Revolution.  Always saying “no” and never offering ideas inhibits progress.  Always saying “no” would have resulted in America not taking the lead in the development of the automobile, aircraft, space exploration, communications, computers, the internet and a host of other technologies and large-scale projects, including the interstate highway system.  FYI, Republicants interstate highways are roads. 

Just saying “no” is a strategy for decline.  And the decline affects more than climate change.  Republicants continue to say no to having more people vote, to examining acts by the Trump administration that compromised national security and to a host of other important issues.  And Republicants claim to be patriots.  Mmm, Republicants seem more like parrots. 

Booklets you might find interesting:

  • Revenge Revolution — description of what form the revolution might take, 20 01 07 Start of Revolution

  • Who took out the Donald?  Who/what groups are most likely to “take out” Trump? The booklet was written early in the Trump administration but still worth a read. Who Took Out the Donald Entries with Update

  • Working with Lee Iacocca after he left Chrysler, 2019Q3 Iacocca Personal Observations. 

  • GM EV1 — behind-the-scenes events affecting development and introduction of the GM EV1, the first modern electric vehicle. 2020Q1 GM EV-1 Story Behind the Story Booklet  Note: in January 2021, GM announced that by 2035 all light-duty cars and trucks sold by GM worldwide will be electric. “Automotive News” had a special section published Earth Day 2021 about the GM EV1. Lots of celebration about the engineering accomplishments, and rightfully so. Little, if any insight why the GM EV1 was cancelled.

    • #416. What Are They Thinking? Or, How Are They Thinking?

    07 Monday Jun 2021

    Posted by in Back Asswards Thinking, Causes of the Revolution, Societal Issues, Uncategorized

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    Readers: The entries in this blog are built around the assumption there will be a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.  Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether a revolution in the US is possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Entry #400 was the most recent “sense check.” 

    This past week I had two conversations that left me puzzled and bewildered, although I guess not surprised. One “conversation” consisted of a series of texts and the other occurred during a business call.

    The first conversation was a follow-up to a birthday greeting I sent to someone I’ve known for 35+ years. We met when she was a student intern in one of the departments I managed. Sometime thereafter she asked me to be an advisor for her thesis.

    Over the years we’ve stayed in touch, mostly chit-chat and rarely, if ever, politics.  Well, no politics that I remember until Trump.  Someplace along the way she migrated from being working-class to middle-class Democrat to a hard-right Trumpster. And the change in attitude wasn’t for any economic hardship.

    I’ve given up trying to understand why she shifted political views because every time I’ve asked what I thought was an objective and rather innocuous question about Trump, the answer was filled with snippets from the far-right sheet of talking points.

    So when I sent a birthday text recently I made sure the content read more like a Hallmark card with no reference to politics or even state of health.  The last message I sent several months ago mentioned we had gotten shots and asked if she had also.  The response was another series of texts telling me why vaccines were bad.

    The response to the birthday message?  I should have known better.  “Thanks for the note” followed by another round of conspiracy stuff, this time focused on last November’s presidential election.  I was also informed not to watch any news on the broadcast networks or cable.  Even Fox was off limits.  These channels are trying to brainwash viewers.

    Instead, I should watch news broadcasts on local channels. No mention, of course, that many local channels are owned by Sinclair Broadcasting, a company promoting far-right views.  Or, no mention that many allegedly local stories are either scripted by Sinclair or fed to local outlets by Sinclair and forced to broadcast. 

    For national news, a credible source was some guy on an internet website who really told the truth.  Seriously?  How does one have a meaningful conversation about policy with someone who thinks like that?  

    The second incident happened during a business call. We were discussing a product that could be used to help manage the transition from fossil fuel to 100% electric in transportation and homes/buildings.  The transition to 100% electric is a key element in plans to address climate change.

    Part of the conversation was about the likely consequences of not addressing climate change aggressively and immediately. The response to my comments about likely consequences was something along the lines of “Predictions about the future are always wrong.”  As proof he noted that how wrong a prediction was made in the 1950s about life in the 21st Century.  What the prediction was I don’t know.

    The implication, at least in my view, was that since predictions or forecasts are always wrong, one should not base behavior on such predictions. Rather, one should wait until it becomes clear what the outcome is going to be and then take action. Such an approach might work for whether to deploy an umbrella but it won’t work for climate change.  

    Waiting until the effects of climate change become incredibly obvious is a formula for disaster.  By then the earth will have passed the tipping point and it will be far too late for any action to make a meaningful difference.  Think of taking action on climate change to jumping out of an airplane.  One can wait only so long to deploy the parachute.  Beyond the “tipping point” the outcome is the same – splat. 

    In response to the comments about forecasts I mentioned virtually my entire career has included being responsible for some type of forecast, often longer term.  I also agreed there is one certainty about forecasts; yes, forecasts are always wrong.

    However, the goal of a forecast is not be 100% correct but rather to minimize errors in estimates of key variables. My experience has been the most useful forecasts are guided by the 80:20 rule. Spend time making as accurate as possible the forecast for 20% for the variables that account for 80% of the outcome.  The remaining 80% of the variables that account for 20% of the outcome should receive some attention but are mostly noise.

    For naysayers of forecasts, novices to forecasting, and conspiracy theorists it is easy to focus on errors in estimates of the 80% of variables that are the noise.  Focusing on the 80% allows one to develop a long list of items in the forecast that were wrong, thereby “proving” forecasts are of no value.  The naysayer group spends very little time evaluating the accuracy of the forecasts for the 20% of variables that matter.  Doing so would disprove whatever argument they are trying to make.

    When discussing climate change, what are some key variables? One is understanding the major sources of CO2; another is understanding how CO2 is generated by that source.  A 3rd is understanding how the ecosystems will be affected as the Earth’s temperature rises or falls.

    The list of practical solutions to climate change includes replacing fossil fuel with electricity or non-carbon fuel in transportation and homes/buildings.  While the solution is certainly feasible, even with available technology, what is unknown and frequently overlooked is how to ensure an adequate flow of electricity when the electricity is generated from renewable sources, primarily wind or solar.  Electricity from wind and solar is highly variable and unlike coal or nuclear which have a relatively constant flow of electrons.

    Technology exists to store electrons. The unsolved problem, and one that needs to be forecasted reasonably accurately, is how to store enough electrons from solar and wind to make sure there is adequate amount of electricity available to meet peak-load demand.

    Another head-scratching data point about “How Are They Thinking?” is a series of entries on Facebook.  One FB friend has repeatedly claimed Covid-19 is a hoax.  Further, the vaccines for Covid were being promoted by the government to control people’s behavior.  His solution to Covid-19?  Just avoid being infected.  How was never explained.  Besides, if someone contracted Covid, then no big deal since only a small percentage of people died. 

    He further claimed the number of deaths due to Covid was greatly exaggerated and part of the plot by the “government” to control one’s behavior.  When I pointed out that during 2020 the total number of deaths, regardless of cause, was more than 500,000 above-normal – at least 3 and probably 4 standard deviations from the norm – he offered no response. I guess 500,000 people wanted to die early and thought the year 2020 was a good time to go.

    Where do these examples leave us? The three people cited are all college educated and who should be reasonably rational in their thinking.  Somehow they have become irrational.  Early on in the Trump Administration I wrote that many of his ardent supporters appeared to have been brainwashed.  Although there is no clear answer how they became brainwashed – maybe watching the bloviators on Fox was enough – I’m even more convinced today of the brainwashing.  Otherwise, why would someone continue to promote theories with no hard data or any conceivable logic?   

    Trying to “un-brainwash” this group of people likely cannot be accomplished before a portion of them take actions similar to storming  the Capitol or beginning widespread attempts to assassinate elected government officials and judges who are perceived not to support the Trump election fantasy.

    Actions by Trump supporters does not bode well for mitigating a 5th US Revolution.  In fact, when history is written about the 21st Century teens and early 20’s, I think the conclusion will be that in 2021 the US had begun the 5th US Revolution, the Revenge Revolution. Historians will also note, and I hope I’m wrong about this forecast, the discord continued to intensify after 2021 until the fighting broke out a few years later.  More to come.

    Booklets you might find interesting:

    • Revenge Revolution — description of what form the revolution might take, 20 01 07 Start of Revolution
    • Who took out the Donald?  Who/what groups are most likely to “take out” Trump? The booklet was written early in the Trump administration but still worth a read. Who Took Out the Donald Entries with Update
    • Working with Lee Iacocca after he left Chrysler, 2019Q3 Iacocca Personal Observations. 
    • GM EV1 — behind-the-scenes events affecting development and introduction of the GM EV1, the first modern electric vehicle. 2020Q1 GM EV-1 Story Behind the Story Booklet  Note: in January 2021, GM announced that by 2035 all light-duty cars and trucks sold by GM worldwide will be electric. “Automotive News” had a special section published Earth Day 2021 about the GM EV1. Lots of celebration about the engineering accomplishments, and rightfully so. Little, if any insight why the GM EV1 was cancelled.

    #415 Personal Responsibility and Accountability. Where Have You Gone?

    24 Monday May 2021

    Posted by in Back Asswards Thinking, Causes of the Revolution, Societal Issues, Uncategorized

    ≈ Leave a comment

    Readers: The entries in this blog are built around the assumption there will be a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1. 

    Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether a revolution in the US is possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Entry #400 was the most recent “sense check.” 

    Personal responsibility and accountability, where have you gone? I’ve been struck over the past few weeks by what seems to be an ever increasing lack or maybe abdication of personal responsibility and personal accountability.

    Among politicians, while Trump may be the most egregious example of someone who refuses to be personally responsible or accountable – it’s always someone else’s fault – the disease seems to have infected virtually the entire Republican Party. As noted in Entry #414, Republicans in the House of Representatives kicked out Liz Cheney from a leadership position because she had the temerity to tell the truth. Shame on you Liz for telling the truth.

    As if such skewed thinking weren’t enough, most Republicans in the House voted against establishing a bipartisan commission – yes, an equal number of Republicans and Democrats – to explore causes and responsibility for the January 6, 2021 attack on the US Capitol.

    Some Republicans claimed the attack was no different than an ordinary day with the usual throng of visitors. Other Republicans claimed the attack was really Democrats in disguise. Whatever the phony rationale, Republicans seem intent on not seeking the truth.

    When it became clear the effort to establish a bipartisan commission would not pass the Senate, Kevin McCarthy, the leader of the Republicans in the House and who voted no to the commission, publicly and loudly proclaimed he would testify under oath. Such an outstanding display of personal responsibility and accountability.

    Unfortunately for society the unwillingness to take responsibility and/or to be held accountable is not confined to often spineless politicians. It seems to be pervasive.

    In several recent articles in the Charlotte Observer, there was data indicating the percentage of people being vaccinated by various categories.  One chart noted the percentage of blacks being vaccinated was lower than the percentage of whites. Some people quoted in the article implied the lower percentage was further evidence that systemic racism against blacks.

    Hold on folks. Not every difference between blacks and whites indicates racism.  What about the percentage of black athletes vs white athletes, especially the NBA and NFL?  Seriously, back to Covid-19 inoculations, there has been ample time for everyone to get shots. While appointments were difficult to get initially, that is no longer the case.

    Further, the number of available locations has expanded considerably.  On a personal note, my wife’s appointment location was moved from a clinic reasonably nearby to one on the west side of Charlotte. The new clinic, much larger and better equipped than the original clinic, was located in a predominantly black neighborhood.  The clinic also had ready access to frequent public transportation. For those located without ready access to public transportation, Uber and Lyft have been providing free rides to and from the clinic.

    So, in this situation, who is not being responsible? The clinic is nearby, and the transportation is readily available.

    Another example of “who should be responsible” is from actions by Mecklenburg County Commissioners.  The manager and commissioners of Mecklenburg County, which surrounds Charlotte and is a significant source of funding for the school system, stated they want to withhold more than 10% of the funds allocated for public schools until the School Board develops and details a plan that ensures student performance will improve.

    Few disagree that measuring teaching skills against a reasonable standard is legitimate.  If the teacher is meeting the standard, then holding teachers accountable for student performance is not reasonable and unfair to the teacher. The people directly responsible for student performance are the student and the parents of the student. Making teachers directly accountable is a no-win situation and discourages people from becoming teachers. Apparently Mecklenburg County has never heard the saying, “you can lead a horse to water but you can’t make it drink.”

    One more example, which is minor, but I think indicative of how widespread the problem of shirking responsibility has become.  Last week Sam’s Club was out of the birdseed mix that all the backyard critters seem to like best.  The clerk said to try ordering on online, which we did.  When the order was placed, the scheduled delivery date was six days.  The next day, FedEx said the delivery date was now COB the following day, a Friday.  Friday passes.  Next FedEx notice Saturday morning, delivery today.  Sunday morning, delivery today.  Finally.  Any updates or notices from FedEx there had been a delay?  Not until the delivery date passed.  Any reason given?  No.  Any apologies from FedEx?  No.  In the scheme of things, an annoyance.  In the larger context, indicative of the lack of willingness to be responsible.      

    How do these examples link to the likelihood of a 5th US revolution, aka the Revenge Revolution? I think the unwillingness to take personal responsibility for something as simple as getting vaccinated, an unwillingness to acknowledge something as obvious as only an individual can decide whether to learn, or unwillingness to keep the customer informed, bodes ill for the willingness of the US populous to try and solve really serious problems facing the country.

    How will the public respond to actions required and sacrifices required to help solve climate change? If people thought the backlash against non-mask wearers was bad, wait until the public begins to truly understand how much an individual’s actions can contribute to a carbon footprint that negatively affects climate change.

    While there’s a lot of discussion inside the Beltway about infrastructure, voting rights, potential inflation, etc., as I noted in an earlier entry I think climate change will become the overwhelming focus in the near future. And who’s going to lead the discussion about and the effort to address climate change?

    The leaders won’t be the current set of elected representatives, especially those in the Senate.  The people who are going to lead the charge are the ones who will be most negatively affected by climate change.  Look out, here come the younger generations. Update: 05/25/2021 — An example of the kind of climate-change demands that we might experience in the future — demands by workers at Amazon that the company end pollution from its operations disproportionately affect people of color. https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/amazon-shareholders-demand-end-pollution-hitting-people-color-hardest-n1268413

    Booklets you might find interesting:

  • Who took out the Donald?  Who/what groups are most likely to “take out” Trump? The booklet was written early in the Trump administration but still worth a read. Who Took Out the Donald Entries with Update

  • Revenge Revolution — description of what form the revolution might take, 20 01 07 Start of Revolution

  • Working with Lee Iacocca after he left Chrysler, 2019Q3 Iacocca Personal Observations. 

  • GM EV1 — behind-the-scenes events affecting development and introduction of the GM EV1, the first modern electric vehicle. 2020Q1 GM EV-1 Story Behind the Story Booklet  Note: in January 2021, GM announced that by 2035 all light-duty cars and trucks sold by GM worldwide will be electric. “Automotive News” had a special section published Earth Day 2021 about the GM EV1. Lots of celebration about the engineering accomplishments, and rightfully so. Little, if any insight why the GM EV1 was cancelled.

    • #411: “You Can Lead a Whore to Culture but You Can’t Make Her Think.”

    11 Sunday Apr 2021

    Posted by in Back Asswards Thinking, Gov't Policy, Societal Issues, Stupid Is as Stupid Does, Uncategorized

    ≈ Leave a comment

    Readers: The entries in this blog are built around the assumption there will be a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1. 

    Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether a revolution in the US is possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Entry #400 was the most recent “sense check.” 

    ENTRY #411 BEGINS: The title is the response from the writer Dorothy Parker when asked to use the word “horticulture” in a sentence.  Parker‘s famous reply seems to appropriate to describe most elected Republicans inside the Washington Beltway.

    I promised in Entry #410 to quit addressing how the Republican Party was imploding.  I also promised to quit offering suggestions how Democrats could help Republicans rebuild, or start a new, more principled Republican Party.

    Those promises certainly have not stopped inane actions by members of the Republican Party.  This past week we experienced another reason why behavior of elected Republicans is consistent with Parker‘s description of a whore. Republicans have quit thinking.  Senate Minority leader Mitch McConnell promised yet again to fight every aspect of the Biden administration‘s infrastructure proposal, even though the proposal has strong support among Republican voters.

    McConnell must have said to himself, “Why should we rich Republicans listen to our constituents?  Our constituents are little people who really don’t matter.  They should be treated like we treat Democrats.  Let them eat old, stale fruitcake.”

    Let’s discuss what infrastructure is and why infrastructure is important. First the definition of infrastructure has always included more than roads and bridges, despite the claims by Republicans. Some examples.  In the mid-19th Century, the US government was involved in making it possible for railroads to expand in all regions and traverse the country.  Along with railroads came support for that new-fangled communication medium called the telegraph.

    Early in the 20th Century, the federal government was involved in building roads and bridges for autos as well as helping build the infrastructure to support another new communications medium called the telephone and another communications medium called radio. Yes, and the government was instrumental in developing places for those things that fly, called airplanes.

    Mid-20th Century the Federal government funded the development of the interstate highway system and managed yet another communications medium, television. By the end of the 20th Century, the government was helping promote a communications medium it had funded directly, the Internet.

    In addition to all the hardware, the government help fund software. Back to the 19th Century, early 20th century. What software infrastructure did the government fund? Free primary and secondary education for everyone, regardless of income. The government also funded higher education, providing land grants to help start many colleges and universities.

    So the idea that infrastructure includes only roads and bridges and a few airports, and that infrastructure does not include education or communications it’s not only hogwash but inconsistent with two centuries of actions by the Federal government.  I guess McConnell and gang hope that no one remembers one iota of US history.

    Another resistance point to infrastructure by Republicans is supposed cost.  Is the Biden administration infrastructure proposal expensive? Yes, but all major infrastructure programs supported by the Federal government have been expensive.  Have these infrastructure programs resulted in some tax increases?  Yes.  (We’ll save for another entry any discussion about the hypocrisy of the Republicans’ support for tax cuts and a higher deficit but then claim how Biden’s proposal will increase taxes and add to the deficit.) 

    What seems baffling to me, and many others, is why in the past decade or so, Republicans have refused to support expansion and/or even repair of critical infrastructure?  Infrastructure is a necessary component of national security and economic expansion, both of which Republicans claim to be basic tenets of their Party.  Yet, during the four years of the Trump administration and during the eight years of the Obama administration, Republicans offered no support for addressing infrastructure issues.

    Maintaining infrastructure in many ways is like maintaining a house or car. The longer one waits to repair an issue, the higher the cost.

    With their repeated refusal to support the Biden administration’s widely popular infrastructure proposal, combined with their continued support for state legislators suppressing voter rights, Republicans have made it nearly impossible to govern the country for the people. The behavior of Republican leadership, and apparently virtually all Republicans in Congress, focuses on placating the hard-core right.  Focusing on this narrow segment of the population and refusing the consider ideas that benefit the majority, including most Republican voters, increases the likelihood of a more severe 5th revolution in the US, aka the Revenge Revolution.

    Unless you’ve been in a cave the last few years, the Revenge Revolution appears to have started, in retrospect a bit earlier than I expected. The election of Trump could be considered the first major event of the Revenge Revolution.  Another major event was the storming of the US Capitol.

    The third major event will be more intense and more violent than storming the Capitol. When and where that event occurs is TBD, but it is coming.

    Back to the title of this entry. “You can lead a whore to culture, but you can’t make her think.”  Let’s change Parker’s quote slightly to read, “You can lead Republicans to culture but you can’t make them think.”  Stay tuned.

    Booklets you might find interesting: 

    #410: Republicans Accelerating the Revenge Revolution

    04 Sunday Apr 2021

    Posted by in Back Asswards Thinking, Gov't Policy, Societal Issues, Stupid Is as Stupid Does, Uncategorized

    ≈ Leave a comment

    Readers: The entries in this blog are built around the assumption there will be a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1. 

    Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether a revolution in the US is possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Entry #400 was the most recent “sense check.” 

    ENTRY #410 BEGINS: Entries #407-#409 focused on the need for and how to begin rebuilding the Republican Party. Legislation proposed or enacted by several states has left little doubt about the need for a new Republican Party.

    After losing the 2020 presidential election, did Republicans throughout the US focus on offering new ideas to attract voters?  No!  Instead of expanding the appeal of the Party, Republicans made being a Republican even more illogical for all but the hard right.  Since the election, Republicans have focused on making voting more difficult.  Well, making it more difficult only if you’re not white.  As if restricting voting weren’t enough for Jim Crow, the Georgia legislature passed and the Governor signed a bill that allows the legislature to discard election results in Georgia counties that the legislators don’t like.

    Oh, that county voted for a Democrat?  Well, there must be fraud in that county so let’s throw out the results and declare the Republican the winner.  Henceforth, we Republican legislators think it is our right to decide who wins and who loses elections in Georgia. You voters, especially “those people,” are not worthy of deciding.

    And while we’re at it, why don’t we make it a crime in Georgia for you to share some water with one of “those people” who is standing in line to vote.  Gee, we almost forgot.  Want an absentee ballot?  Let’s make getting an absentee ballot more difficult, especially if you live in the wrong neighborhood.  And then let’s restrict the number of drop-off locations. 

    If you decide to protest, even the most mild of protests, we’ll arrest you.  You know, we legislators had to arrest that Black state representative who knocked on the door while the esteemed Georgia governor was signing this necessary legislation.  You know, don’t you, she’s a terrorist!  She’s more dangerous than any of the patriots who tried to save the country by invading the US Capitol January 6.  I, mean, she wasn’t armed but she had that look of evil in her eye.  She could have killed everyone in the room with a single swipe of her hand.  She deserved to be arrested, handcuffed and booked.

    Like many citizens, I was frustrated, but not surprised by these actions in Georgia.  I also was prompted to ask myself, “Who was the last Republican president that had some ideas to improve the country for everyone?“  Trump? No. Bush 43? No. Remember Bush 43 try to privatize Social Security. Bush 41? Maybe but nothing stands out.

    Reagan? No. Reagan was all about tax cuts for the wealthy and trashing those mythical welfare queens. Remember, according to Reagan, government is not the solution; government is the problem. Gerald Ford? OK guy but he was really in cleanup mode as president. Most of his accomplishments were as Speaker of the House.

    Whoa Bubba, Now, we’re back to Nixon.  Yes Nixon, the Republican president who resigned in disgrace and was pardoned by his successor.  As bad as Nixon was for lots of reasons, he also signed legislation creating the Environmental Protection Agency. He proposed affirmative action in the Federal government and began diplomatic relations with China.  Much of the US population benefitted from those actions. 

    One has to go back to Eisenhower for a legislation by a Republican that benefitted the vast majority of Americans and fundamentally changed society – creation of the Interstate Highway system. 

    Given the nearly 50-year lack of Republican presidents shepherding meaningful legislation that benefitted the populous, why should anyone be surprised about the behavior of today’s Republicans? The problem for Republicans is the core of the Party is old white guys who spend the day watching Fox.  These guys are dying and the younger generations aren’t buying the same line of BS.

    Given the obvious outcome of this approach, has the attitude of Republican leadership been to try and change the message of the Republican Party? Try and make the message more consistent with Eisenhower and Nixon? No, let'[s not change. Let’s just double down on voter suppression of anyone who doesn’t watch Fox or isn’t white.

    A good timely example is Republican’s opposition to the Biden administration proposal to radically upgrade travel and communications infrastructure in the US.  The proposal has widespread approval ratings among the voters, with some polls indicating 50% support among Republican voters.  So, what does Mitch McConnell, ranking Republican in the Senate proclaim?  The hell with what voters want. I, Mitch McConnell, king proclaim no Republican will support this proposal.   Mitch, here’s a piece of advice, go see a proctologist and have your head relocated to the proper spot on your body.

    The strategy of McConnell and the Republican Party on the infrastructure proposal, climate change and many other proposals that could benefit a wide swath of the US population is like trying to bail out a leaky boat with a coffee cup. The problem is the leak continues to get bigger. You might stave off the inevitable for a while, but the boat is going to sing sink. 

    Republican actions are also likely to increase the likelihood and even intensify the Revenge Revolution. People who are suppressed are not going to stand by idly by, especially if they’ve experienced not being suppressed.  Just in case you Republicans haven’t heard, Jim Crow left town.

    You Republicans also are starting to lose the business community. Major League baseball announced the 2021 All-Star game will be relocating outside Georgia.  Companies with HQ in Georgia and Texas, which is in the process of passing Georgia-like legislation, have publicly stated strong opposition the vote-suppression measures.  Among a long list of companies are Coca-Cola, Delta Airlines, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, Dell Computer and a growing list of others.

    As far as members of the working class who supported Trump and Republicans, Biden has done more for the working class in less than 3 months in office than Trump did in four years. At some point, and I thought it would be a long time ago, the working class is going to wake up and realize how little the Republican Party has done for them. An egregious example of how Trump and the Republican Party screwed the little guy is detailed in a NYT article titled “How Trump Steered Supporters into Unwitting Donations.”

    So, who’s going to be left in the Republican Party?  Some old white guys and the younger white supremacists.  Principled Republicans have no place to go and Republican leadership in Congress is unwilling to recognize reality.  Democrats need to reach out to the more principled Republicans. Most Republicans in Congress are likely to resist the offer, but at some point the Romney‘s, Murkowski‘s and Collins’ of the world will begin to acknowledge and accept their responsibility to form a new principled Republicans Party and that Democrats can help, even if behind the scenes.

    Booklets you might find interesting: 

    #399. The Donald and Charlie. Two Peas from the Same Pod. (Part #4)

    17 Thursday Dec 2020

    Posted by in Back Asswards Thinking, Causes of the Revolution, Education Issues, Post Trump Presidency, Societal Issues, Uncategorized

    ≈ Leave a comment

    Readers: some of the dialogue in this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Entries addressing events in the the future assume there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.

    Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether in the next few years, a revolution in the US is still possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Most recent sense check, ENTRY #387.   Next Sense Check will be Entry #400.

    Some of the entries are part of a series.  Several series are available as easy-to-read booklets for download:

    Beginning #378 the entries began focusing on a post-Trump administration and a post-Coronavirus world.  We’re headed to a post-Trump world and post-COVID world, even if a ways away.  The premise of a 5th US revolution in the 2020’s decade has not changed.  Comments and suggestions welcome.

    ENTRY #399: The past few entries have attempted to understand the cause of and whether to attempt to solve cognitive dissonance among many Trump supporters. The issue is not about different political philosophies. A democratic society should have at least two strong political parties. The difference is trying to understand why so many Trump supporters are willing to sacrifice the basic tenets of democracy for a known wannabe autocrat.

    What does Trump offer that has created a cult-like following? When one steps back and analyzes the data, the Trump cult is getting nothing in return for following the Donald. So why follow the Donald? What is the appeal; what is the quid-pro-quo?

    Despite no obvious benefit, at least to rational thinkers, why does the Trump cult do whatever the Donald wants? The Trump cult supports his actions even when the actions are contrary to the best interest of the followers.

    It’s as if Trump is like the Great Oz, “I say the coronavirus is like the flu. You don’t need a mask.” And the followers don’t wear a mask. Or the Great Oz says, “Send money to me to help fight a stolen election.” And the cult sends money. Or the Great Oz says “Support a gigantic tax break for the wealthy and the benefits will trickle down to you.” And the cult believes in voodoo economics, even though the Federal deficit has ballooned and the children/grandchildren of the cult will be paying for the wealth transfer.

    In some ways Trump reminds me of Charlie. Reminds me not of Charlie Tuna, although Trump’s body profile looks similar. But reminds me of Charlie Manson. Often times Trump seems as maniacal and crazy as Manson.

    If you think the comparison to Manson is extreme, consider Trump’s actions to suppress efforts to control the pandemic. Also, consider the claims about the White House intentionally distorting info from CDC re the severity of the virus. Now, count the number of unnecessary deaths by Trump’s actions and compare the number to Charlie’s death toll. Still think the comparison is unfair?

    As far as members of the cult, at least the women who hung around Charlie Manson, got satisfied sexually. Those who hang around Trump only get screwed economically.

    How does the US society begin to address and re-educate members of the Trump cult? I don’t think we should waste our time. The cult members have been brainwashed and the major protagonist will fade away by late spring 2021. Unfortunately, the essence of Trump’s message may not fade as quickly.

    Post inauguration, Trump will act like many bullies when their perceived power is taken away. He will melt like the Wicked Witch of the West. Oh, Trump might hold a few pep rallies and generate some noise, but nothing of any lasting consequence.

    If Trump understands one thing well, that one thing is how to take other people’s money. When he was in debt for the failing casinos, he declared bankruptcy and walked away leaving the banks with the debt. Since no US-based bank would deal with him, beginning in the late 1990’s, early 2000’s Trump turned to sources outside the US to fund purchases of golf courses and hotel properties. While in Charlotte, NC to visit one of the Trump golf courses, Don, Jr. bragged that the Russians had become Trump’s primary funding source. And you still wonder why Trump’s nice to the Russians?

    A recent example of using other people’s money was when it became clear that he was likely to lose the re-election to Biden. At that point Trump formed a PAC that was promoted to help him get re-elected in 2024 and to help finance the legal cost of lawsuits associated with what Trump kept promoting as the “rigged” 2020 presidential election.

    The reality is the PAC is Trump’s new piggybank. Donors likely didn’t read the fine print. After a small percentage is allocated to the RNC and some for legal costs for the frivolous lawsuits, Trump gets to keep the rest. The money will stay in the PAC although Trump will control the disbursement of funds, including use for personal expenses. Keeping funds in the PAC should protect the PAC from creditors, who will likely force Trump into bankruptcy when the $400+ million loans on his properties come due in the next few years.

    Whether the PAC funds can be protected from judgements for fraud is problematic. The State of New York has been investigating the Trump organization and Trump personally for tax fraud and possibly other crimes. The investigations may lead to indictments soon after Trump leaves office. State crimes are not overridden by a presidential pardon. Oops.

    To convince cult members he will keep promoting his message, Trump has claimed he will create a new cable channel once out of office. The claim seems to be another ploy to attract funds from the ne’er-do-well supporters, who can least afford it. Trump will need an outlet since most credible media, save a couple of bloviators on Fox, have started focusing on the Biden administration’s plans to address mounting economic and social problems.

    Like Charlie Manson’s followers, some of Trump’s supporters will stay in the cult no matter the circumstances or the evidence against the cult leader. Most followers, however, soon will migrate to another fringe Republican candidate who probably will be more charismatic than Trump but spew the same BS.

    The biggest problem for the Republican Party is Trump’s legacy and how to recover from it. The damage to the credibility of government and the democracy caused by Trump’s corruption, cronyism and complacency has been significant.

    For the Republican Party in particular, how long will a substantial portion of the Party believe the dis-information and fantasies, whether promoted by Trump or a follow-on Trump? How can the Republican Party put forth a credible platform of governance beyond “Just Say No” to whatever Biden or Democrats propose? Without a more reasonable platform the appeal of the Republican Party will continue to shrink.

    A shrinking and ineffective Republican Party could become a major contributor to a 5th US Revolution, aka the Revenge Revolution? On the optimistic side it will take 10-15 years to repair the damage to the Federal agencies and the credibility of the government caused by Trump and complicit Republican Senators, Representative and state governors. During the period of repair, the chances of unrest increase. Trump cultists could be persuaded to revolt, whether or not Trump is still around.

    For many years a small group in Texas has promoted secession. That group and the Trump cultists appear to share many of the same characteristics. The secession movement could move beyond the obvious candidates of former Confederate states. A broader secession movement could find support in the upper Midwest – for example in the northern part of Lower Michigan – as well as a number of other Midwest and mountain states.

    The secession movement could grow even stronger if Biden steps down after one term, which seems likely, and Kamala Harris then is elected president. Given the harassment and death threats by Trump loyalists of the female elected officials, especially in Michigan – Governor, Attorney General and Secretary of State – the Trump loyalists likely would consider stronger action against a Black female president.

    As noted periodically in these entries, a well-coordinated widespread guerilla-warfare like attack could cause significant damage to property and result in a number of deaths. Think of Charlie Mason’s Helter-Skelter attack but on a much larger scale. The disruption would create significant angst among the general population. Once the guerilla warfare started, unless the federal and state governments quickly quelled the attacks, the country could start to spin out of control.

    More about the possible Revenge Revolution in entry #400.