Readers: this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.
Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether in the next few years, a revolution in the US is still possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US. Most recent sense check, Entry #365.
Some of the entries are part of a series. Several series are available as easy-to-read booklets for download:
- Working with Lee Iacocca after he left Chrysler, 2019Q3 Iacocca Personal Observations.
- GM EV1 — behind-the-scenes events affecting development and introduction of the GM EV1, the first modern electric vehicle. 2020Q1 GM EV-1 Story Behind the Story Booklet
- Coming technology tsunami and the implications for the US, Tech Tsunami Booklet with Supplement
- Trump Supporters Brainwashed? A series discussing why Republics have abandoned basic principals, Are Trump Republicans Brainwashed 2020Q1
- Who took out the Donald? Who/what groups are most likely to “take out” Trump? Who Took Out the Donald Entries with Update
- Revenge Revolution — description of what form the revolution might take, 20 01 07 Start of Revolution
Prelude: there is an endless number of inconsistencies in information from the Trump administration about the spread of the coronavirus and/or actions to mitigate the spread. For this blog entry we take a look at trying to understand why Trump behaves the way he does. What’s really behind his behavior?
ENTRY #377 BEGINS: Last week I ended the entry expressing hope that the experience and sacrifices associated with the coronavirus would help bring the US populace closer together. Being closer, in turn, would reduce the severity of the likely Revenge Revolution. Behavior by most of the public this past week seems to reinforce that hope.
What is far less clear is understanding the behavior and decisions by Trump. You have to ask yourself, “Why such behavior?” It makes no sense.
My training in undergrad and grad school and most jobs in my professional career have been to analyze data and then forecast events/outcomes. The challenge with forecasting is to articulate reasonable, actionable actions before the situation becomes obvious and more difficult to control. In addition, recommended actions that provide the most lead time often are necessarily, but also may be based on seemingly disparate data points.
Those who make predictions understand their forecasts are almost always wrong. Naysayers and “Monday-morning quarterbacks” love to nitpick and point out errors in the predictions. However, those who make decisions based on predictions understand that a good, actionable prediction doesn’t have to be 100% correct. A good prediction only needs to presents reasonably accurate outcomes for the most relevant variables before the situation becomes obvious and actions to control the situation less effective.
With that background, let’s turn to the behavior of Donald Trump as president. From my perspective there is something or maybe a set of variables driving his behavior that is not obvious. If one steps back and analyzes the possible consequences of the behavior, the likely outcomes of Trump’s actions seem contrary to the best interests of the United States. So, why such behavior?
Yes, Trump’s narcissistic. Yes, Trump’s crude, rude and a bully. Yes, he’s under educated and lazy. And, yes, he’s a wannabe Mafia Don. But none of those traits explains his decisions in certain key situations and his relationship with certain people.
Following is top-of-mind list of behavior and/or decisions that to me are inexplicable. With a bit of work, the list would be at least five times as long. Here’s the very short list:
- Post-inaugural closed-door meeting in the White House with the Russian ambassador, a known spy. After the meeting the transcript was destroyed. Why?
- Public and intense alienation of NATO allies while publicly courting Putin. Why?
- Refusing to release tax returns. Then, when ordered to provide tax returns to a Congressional committee, which is written in the tax code, refuses to do so and takes case to court. Why?
- When signing the $2 trillion coronavirus stimulus, adding an “executive exclusion” that claims the House of Representatives does not have the right of oversight for the expenditures and that he, Trump, will provide oversight. Why?
- Overruling vigorous protests by the FBI and CIA and issuing son-in-law Jared Kushner a top secret clearance. The agencies indicated Kushner’s behavior and associations disqualified him from such a clearance. What about the son-in-law’s behavior is so shady?
- Praising Navy SEAL Gallagher and then awarding him the Presidential Medal of Freedom when there was overwhelming evidence of criminal wrongdoing. Why go against the recommendations of the military?
- Trash-talking Navy Captain Brett Crozier of the aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt for trying to protect his crew from the coronavirus. Unlike Gallagher, Captain Crozier was praised as a hero by officers and enlisted sailors. Why praise Gallagher and trash-talk Crozier?
- Appointing cabinet officials with clear conflicts of interests, starting with General Flynn and his interactions with Russia and Turkey. Trump was informed of Flynn’s conflicts before the appointment, yet went ahead. Most of the Cabinet appointees have little or no experience in the department. In addition, Trump has consistently appointed “acting” staff members, apparently to avoid having the person be subjected to review by the Senate. Why?
- Claiming that he (Trump) had influenced the Saudis and the Russians to agree to raise oil prices. Just a few days before claiming he helped raise oil prices, Trump claimed that lower oil prices were like a tax cut for consumers. Whatever Trump offered the Saudis and the Russians didn’t work since the “deal” has been delayed. What was in this for Trump?
- Refusal to have the federal government take the lead in coordinating a response to the coronavirus. Only after extreme pressure did Trump invoke the Defense Production Act, which forced companies to make certain products and then sell the products to the Federal government at a certain price. But rather than the Federal government taking possession, Trump directs the companies to ship the products to private distributors, who are allowed to resell the products to the various states, often at 10x the price paid by the Federal government. Why?
There are many other examples, including the behavior of Attorney General Barr. But in each case one must ask, why? If any of these actions were part of a presidential campaign platform, would Trump have been elected? Obviously not. Who would vote for a candidate, for example, who says, “I’m going to insult NATO allies, and especially insult the English, French and Germans. Then I’m going to cozy up to a known enemy of the United States, the Russians.”
Here’s my take on Trump’s behavior and no one should be surprised. The Russians, for sure, likely the Saudis, and maybe the Chinese have Trump by the short hairs. Why? Because of backroom unreported financial deals, which likely involve laundering money. Recall, the only bank that would lend Trump money after his series of bankruptcies and defaulting on payments was Deutsche Bank. Which bank has been indicted and fined for laundering money? (Guess Deutsche Bank.) Who did Trump appoint as Commerce Secretary? None other than Wilbur Ross, the former chairman of Cyprus Bank, a bank notorious for laundering money.
Don’t be fooled by Trump’s bluster and claim that he’s tough on the Russians and Chinese. Look behind the curtain and see the sanctions against the Russians are a farce. The tariffs against Chinese goods are more show than substance. Think about this. Could the tariffs have been part of a deal where Trump agreed to walk away from the Trans-Pacific Partnership? The agreement would have strengthened America’s influence in Asia. By walking away, did Trump let the Chinese begin to dominate trade in Southeast Asia in exchange for some payment to Trump?
Even without his tax returns, there’s enough evidence to indicate Trump is up to his eyeballs in debt. Trump, Jr even bragged at the private club Trump bought north of Charlotte that the Russians were the source of money for many Trump projects. There’s enough evidence to suggest the Saudis have also provided cash to Trump.
Before the coronavirus, cash flow at many Trump properties was declining, and in some cases, cash flow was negative. The drop-off in cash flow associated with the Coronavirus has made the situation much worse. On April 4, the Trump Organization announced layoffs of 1,500 people. And more layoffs are likely to come.
Let’s pause for now and just ask ourselves, why in Trumpland does everything seem backwards? Why in Trumpland does black look like white? Why in Trumpland does down look like up? Why is irrational considered rational? And endless other dichotomies.
Over the next week, step back and view Trump’s remarks in the context of the questions raised and why everything seems backwards. Stepping back might provide some interesting insight, or at least raise more questions. To be continued.
Jordan: “Just asking a question if you knew the logic stream of people who have been brainwashed.”
Walt: “OK, you’re right. I was brainwashed by Trump. It’s embarrassing to talk about it.”
Jordan: “What about Trump yanking the security clearances made you take pause?”
Walt: “Not all at once. I bounced back and forth. It was as if I was playing ping-pong by myself. One day a conspiracy theory; the next day no conspiracy.”
Walt: “Once I got though the conspiracy analysis, then like the baby who now knows how to walk, the pace picked up considerably. And finally, Trump became more like Humpty Dumpty.”
Walt: “As I looked in the mirror, I just couldn’t believe what I’d been doing. I needed to find out why. What had made me act that way?”
Walt: “Well, I poured through a couple of his books. Then I decided to see a psychiatrist.”
Jordan: “Walk me through how you guys worked together.”
Jordan: “You became your own case study.”
Walt: “Look, I’m no brainwashing expert but as was explained to me, there are ‘holes’ in most brainwashing caps. If reaction to an event or an idea goes through one of those holes, it accesses the pre-brainwashed mind. Think of it as a being on either side of a wall or maybe as separate partitions on a computer hard drive.”
Jordan: “This discussion is absolutely fascinating…but I need a break bad.”
Walt: “Great! Where’d you get it? Don’t tell me. It’s from that liberal bastion, Starbucks.”
Jordan: “C’mon. Stop me from banging my head against the wall. I admit I find your logic fascinating, even humorous at times…but your logic is also incredibly frustrating.”
Walt: “But it’s true.”
Jordan: “If the FBI was trying to get Hillary elected, then why did Comey hold a press conference a few days before the election effectively reopening an investigation about Clinton that found no laws were broken?”
Walt: “Same thing with Obama. He knew the Russians had hacked the Democratic National Committee HQ and were releasing emails to the public. But he didn’t do anything about it. Why not?”
Jordan: “Just for fun, please tell me, in Trump world, does the sun come up in the east or west?”
Walt: “A thorough investigation. Why should the FBI allow a foreign country, especially a known enemy of the US, try to influence the outcome of a presidential election? If the FBI didn’t investigate, it would be dereliction of duty. All of them should be fired…and some tried for treason.”
Jordan: “Yet, when the FBI had very credible evidence that the Russians had infiltrated the Trump campaign and the campaign was likely conspiring with the Russians, you supported the Republicans in Congress who objected. Those same Republicans thought the investigation should be stopped. Why did you support them when you just said there should be an investigation?”
Walt: “Not likely fake, it was fake. At least now you’re starting to understand.”
Gelly: “Nice to be back. Had lots of fun but sorta, kinda missed the office.”
Jordan: “Right. Walt’s coming over sometime late morning.”
Walt: “We had a great time and the fireworks at the club were sensational.”
Walt: “I thought Trump was a blowhard. More of a flake real-estate salesman than a conservative Republican.”
Walt: “Guess I never really considered the experience. Was more intrigued with the idea of change than the quality of the people involved or what they had to do to implement change. Sort of the ends justifying the means.”
Walt: “We’ll talk about troubling later. As I said, I did my own studying trying to understand if Trump was real or not. I spent lots of time watching Fox – mostly Hannity and O’Reilly before he got unfairly railroaded out – and I’d catch Limbaugh on the radio a couple of times a week. The more I listened to these guys the more convinced I was Trump was on the right track.”
Jordan: “Did your studying include reading newspapers – let’s say the Miami Herald, Palm Beach Post, Washington Post, NY Times?”
Jordan: “If I understand correctly, your primary sources of info were Trump, Trump’s tweets, probably the White House press secretary – Sarah Huckabee – and a couple of commentators on Fox. No print media other than an occasional read of the Journal. And no other networks such as PBS, CBS, and say MSNBC.”
Walt: “OK, but you have to buy coffee…and I want a bagel, too.”
Then came the week of February 12, 2018. The week started with some people celebrating the birth of a truly great president…Abraham Lincoln. The rest of the week, however, was mind-numbing blur of events…at least mind-numbing by pre-Trump standards.
The week ended with indictments of 13 Russians and a couple of Russian-run companies for meddling in the 2016 elections. So when the indictments were announced, how did the White House respond? Praise for the Justice Department? Condemnation of Russian interference in the elections? Nope. Only a claim there was no collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russians since the indictments indicated the meddling started before Trump formally declared his candidacy.
The Donald and his incompetents club are not close to being off the hook. Truth is Mueller didn’t exonerate Trump but tightened the noose a notch or two.
So what’s most disappointing then is the behavior of Republicans in Congress. And if you’re a hard-core Republican reading this, please no attempted counters that the Democrats are at fault. Pal, Republicans control the House, Senate and the White House. What more do you want? Yet, the Republicans seem clueless…and have stopped thinking. Did Trump suck out your brains so you can no longer think…and then take your morals along with the brains?
Speaker of the House Paul Ryan was talking out of his you-know-what, babbling incoherently about the usual Republican talking points – enforce the gun laws on the books, help the mentally ill and oh, yes, the Second Amendment is sacred. Oops, I almost forgot, we need to pray for the families of the people killed. While not next in line, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell repeated the meaningless drivel.
Guns are designed for one purpose…and one purpose only – to kill. What’s more, weapons designed for the military – AR-15-like weapons – are designed to kills lots of people quickly.
don’t hold water. As awful and frightful as this sounds…and it is…I could go to a gun show and buy weapons that allow me to shoot down a commercial airliner. What’s even worse, at most major airports I could position myself outside the perimeter of airport security and still be able to take down the airliner. Scary isn’t it.