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~ USA Headed for a 5th Revolution! Why?

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Monthly Archives: August 2017

#261 Sense Check: Is Revenge Revolution Still Plausible?

21 Monday Aug 2017

Posted by Jordan Abel in Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

First-time readers, this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020).  Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution.  More about Revenge Revolution and author, Entry #1.  List and general description of entries to date.  

Note: most entries are formatted as conversations.  Characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations.  Profile of characters.  You’ll catch on quickly.  Thanks for your time and interest…and comments.

This entry is a bit different.  A couple of times each year I step back for a “sense check” whether a Revenge Revolution in the United States sometime after 2020 is still plausible or am I blowing smoke you know where?

If there were any doubt about plausibility of a Revenge Revolution, events this past week should have erased them. The Revenge Revolution seems not only plausible, but likely. While one could make a credible argument that Revenge Revolution will begin before 2020…and may have begun already, let’s do some more analysis.

Abbott CostelloWhat’s confusing, at least for me, is trying to determine “who’s on first?” in Washington.  Is it Abbott or Costello? The political leadership in Washington and the some of the populous seem to be wandering…aimlessly. President Trump has been displaying classic symptoms of what I call “water-bug” management. Like a water bug, he operates in shallow water and darts back-and-forth, changing positions constantly but never really progressing. Describing his behavior as inconsistent and his non-scripted remarks as incoherent would be a compliment.

The lack of leadership from the president has left Congress with no clear direction. The lack of leadership has also confused the general population, creating even more splinter groups. When I first started writing this “sense check,” I assumed the splinter groups, or clusters, were based on traditional political descriptions – far right Republicans, far-left Democrats, etc. But those cluster definitions just did not seem to fit today’s situation. After some head scratching, I decided clusters described around behavior were more appropriate than political affiliations.

The clusters also seemed to beg for more descriptive names. So, here are names of clusters I thought were evolving – in no particular order of importance or influence: (i) Brainwashed; (ii) Know-Nothings; (iii) Independent Thinkers; (iv) Chicken Hawks; (v) Me Firsts. My rule is to try to limit a blog entry to no more than 1,500 words, so for this entry, write-ups about the clusters are relatively brief. In my best imitation southern vocabulary, I “might could” expand these write-ups in coming entries.

Cluster #1: “Brainwashed” – the most dominant portion of Brainwashed seems to be the Alt-right, which is promoting an America of international isolation as well as domestic racial, ethnic and religious separation. Based on purely anecdotal evidence, the cluster seems to include a surprising large percentage of college graduates. I have friends from Brainwashedmy undergraduate and graduate days who seem to have put aside all learning and become brainwashed.

The term “brainwashed” occurred to me when having breakfast with a former high-school history teacher…and a fellow Jew no less, which I mention because of the anti-Semitism of the Alt-right.  For the past 4-5 years we’ve met for breakfast every 6-8 weeks. For the past couple years, with each succeeding breakfast my colleague became more vocal about alleged problems with the Obama Administration. During the 2016 presidential campaign he started repeating false claims from Breitbart, Fox News and other sources. Refuting the claims with data had no impact on his position.

The final straw in the relationship was after I asked for a source of data supporting what I thought was a wildly outlandish claim, he jumped up, pointed a finger and accused me of calling him a liar. A liar because I asked for a data source? His behavior and behavior of some other college-educated friends could only be explained, I concluded, by some type of brainwashing. Ok, it might be a stretch…but how else do you explain it?

Cluster #2: “Know-Nothings” – there are many voters on the right and left who are not brainwashed, but, for some reason, do not seem to understand or think through Know Nothingsconsequences of their positions. Many Trump supporters fall in this category. Why else would someone vote for a candidate whose campaign platform, if implemented, would result in legislation against one’s economic best interest? Either you don’t understand what you’re voting for and/or you’ve been hoodwinked by a slick real-estate developer.

Whichever the case you have displayed that either you know nothing or chose not to think. As with the Brainwashed cluster, there seem to be a surprising number of reasonably well-educated people in this cluster. What happened to critical thinking?

Many Know-Nothings in the Republican Party, even those in Congress, seem to be intimidated by the Alt-right. Trump’s bizarre and incorrect statements following the demonstrations In Charlottesville, VA were a perfect opportunity for Republican members in this cluster to reestablish credibility. Other than a few senators – Graham, McCain, Corker, e.g. – prominent Republicans remained silent, or like Congressional leaders McConnell and Ryan, issued wishy-washy statements not directly critical of Trump. So much for leadership.

While not surprising, Know-Nothings also did not address what I consider the elephant-in-the room – the meaning of statues of Confederate soldiers, mostly generals. Folks, like it or not, those who fought with the Confederacy were traitors. Yes, I’ll say that one more time, traitors.

The southern states were not forced out of the Union but chose to leave voluntarily. The southern states betrayed the Union. Well, guess what? The traitors lost. So why should the country honor traitors with statues? And forget the false equivalency to George Washington and Thomas Jefferson being slave owners. Unlike traitors Robert E. Lee, Stonewall Jackson and Jefferson Davis, both George Washington and Thomas Jefferson fought for the creation of the United States.

The Know-Nothing cluster, whether right or left, will likely remain ineffectual, even after the Alt-right is marginalized following the Revenge Revolution. Maybe this cluster should join Dorothy, travel to the Land of Oz and ask the Wizard for a brain.

Cluster #3: “Independent Thinkers” – by definition members have no strong ties to the left or right. The group includes more moderate Republicans and more moderate Independent ThinkersDemocrats. The cluster has no clear agenda and no obvious spokesperson, other than possibly Bernie Sanders. Since the election, and especially since the events in Charlottesville, more Congressional reps and voters seem to be shifting toward the center, recognizing that the country needs some well thought-out policies. (Article written by former Trump supporter, 17 08 20 Voted for Trump and Sorely Regret It.  Source, NYT.)

At one time, this cluster included Lincoln/Dirksen/Javits Republicans and moderate Democrats. Following the Revenge Revolution, this cluster should emerge as the driving force.

Cluster #4: “Chicken Hawks” – A potentially dangerous cluster. Bush #43 suffered as Chicken Hawks Cheney, Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz pushed military involvement, despite Chicken Hawknever having served any time themselves. Trump might be Chicken Hawk supreme. Lots of bluster and bullying but no time in the military – and no, military prep school does not count. Trump seems to have no comprehension of how a military operates and the possible consequences of taking military action.

Again, without supporting data, my guess is most neo-Nazis, white supremacists and other Alt-right supporters could be classified as Chicken Hawks. With any luck, the real military people in the Administration will take control should chief Chicken Hawk give some dangerous order.

Cluster #5: “Me First” – cluster includes people with a wide range of socio-economic backgrounds and education. The primary focus for “members” of the group is me, me, Me Firstme…to the exclusion of everyone else, or at least until I’m satisfied. “Team,” “country” and similar such words are not part of their vocabulary.

The most visible members, but not the largest number, are the “1.0%’ers” and many wanna-be 1.0%’ers. For the 1.0%’ers the primary solution to all economic and many other issues is “more tax cuts.” These cuts, of course, benefit the wealthy the most but are often disguised in percentage terms to mollify the “Know Nothings.” In fairness, not all 1.0%’ers fall in this category. Some high-profile super-rich have been extremely generous sharing their wealth and have not supported additional tax breaks.

The cluster includes those opposed to most government regulation, unless the regulation favors them, of course. Few in the group seem to understand or acknowledge that their personal freedoms and other rights are the result of a…yikes, strong Federal government.

Also included in the “Me First” cluster are those seeking government handouts, whether through tax breaks or direct payments. Many supporting tax cuts are opposed to any kind of cash payments to people with lower incomes. Somehow tax breaks do not constitute real cash?

This cluster exists in part because of a mix-mash of laws and regulations. While the “Me First” cluster will continue to exist after the Revenge Revolution, the Revenge Revolution should provide the impetus to simplify the Byzantine regulations that affect taxes and various subsidy payments.

Summary: Back to the question at hand – Is a Revenge Revolution plausible sometime after 2020? Has the Revenge Revolution already begun? Based on activities during and actions by the Trump Administration, let’s stick with the answer, “yes, still plausible after 2020.” In fact, Trump and supporters have likely accelerated the timetable for the Revenge Revolution.

070715_2218_141SenseChe1.gifIronically for Trump and supporters, the outcome of the Revenge Revolution could be exactly the opposite of what they intended to accomplish. The Revenge Revolution could result in a stronger Federal government with laws that are more equitable and more regulations, especially protecting the environment. So there, Trump et al. Happy now?

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#260 Going after the Donald. Collusion? Illusion? Follow the Money. (And thanks Donald.) (Part 3 of 3)

12 Saturday Aug 2017

Posted by Jordan Abel in Lessons of Revolution, Societal Issues

≈ Leave a comment

First-time readers, the dialogue in this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020).  Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution.  More about Revenge Revolution and author, Entry #1.  List and general description of entries to date.  Annual assessment if Revolution plausible.

Note: most characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations.  Profile of characters.  You’ll catch on quickly.  Thanks for your time and interest…and comments.

Scene: Jordan’s Washington office following meeting with Greenie and JC.  Series with JC and Greenie starts Entry #244 and ends Entry #257. This conversation starts #258.

092615_2031_Characters7.gifGelly:  “Whew, I feel better.  A break and a coffee refill.  Now, where were we?”

Jordan:  “You were asking why Mueller and the other Congressional investigations didn’t start following the money earlier.  Actually, I think they did but tried to keep quiet about it.”

Gelly:  “By keeping quiet, you think they reduced the likelihood that Trump would try to fire Mueller?  Had Trump really known where the investigation was headed, he might have tried to fire Mueller right away.”

Jordan:  “Probably.  But one thing about all the investigations baffles me.”

Gelly:  “Only one?  And that is?”

TurtleneckJordan:  “Trump’s behavior.    I mean he had to know one or more of the investigations, especially Mueller’s, would lead to his finances.  How could you think otherwise?”

Gelly:  “I agree.  Somehow…and we’ll never know for sure…Trump seemed naïve enough to believe that he could hide all the illicit financial deals…”

Jordan:  “…and even more naïve believing his taxes never would be disclosed.  What was the guy thinking?”

Trump KingGelly:  “He thought he was king.  The Donald lived in his own goofy ‘I’m-above-it-all’ world.  Surely the rest of the family von Trump had some common sense.”

Jordan:  “For a while I thought Kushner might be OK.  However, in short order he proved to be the caricature of a developer – shady and untrustworthy.”

Gelly:  “I must admit feeling sorry for Ivanka’s and Jared’s kids when he got into so much trouble.  But, hey, he was a big boy and should have known better.”

jailJordan:  “Another example of the apple not falling far from the tree.”

Gelly:  “You mean old-man Kushner, I mean Jared’s father, being convicted of tax evasion and witness tampering…and then spending time in jail?”

Jordan:  “Yes.  OK, so the key players in Trump family were stinko.  What’s even worse to me is the family seemed to be able to drag seemingly respectable people into the Trump gutter…and do it quickly.”

amateur hourGelly:  “I have some friends who were part of the White House staff early on in the Trump Administration.  Most had worked for the Obama Administration and a few also had worked for the Bush Administration.  All…and I mean every single person…was shocked at the lack of professionalism among Trump’s key staff members.  They said calling it ‘amateur hour’ would be a compliment.”

Jordan:  “What’s equally shocking to me is how quickly some of the cabinet appointees started to take on Trump’s demeanor.  I understand cabinet heads conveying the message but taking on Trump’s a-hole demeanor was frankly shocking.”

Mean DogGelly:  “In more polite terms, you mean like dogs who take on their master’s behavioral characteristics?”

Jordan:  “Never thought about it in those terms but yes.  Good analogy, Gelly.”

Gelly:  “Look, it’s cathartic to beat up on the Trump family and their lackeys.  As I look back, what bothers me the most .was how Trump and his Alt-right crowd attempted to corrupt the democracy and destroy the US.  And for what purpose?  Money?”

PutinJordan:  “For Trump, money for sure.  And Trump had to try to hide the Russian connection.  Because of all the earlier shady financial dealings Putin had Donnie boy by the short hairs.”

Gelly:  “Jordan, I know what you mean but could you use a different expression, please?”

Jordan:  “Alright.  In addition to greed, what seemed to drive the Donald was an insatiable appetite for respect.   He was the quintessential wanna be.”

Gelly:  “Apparently what he never understood was money, wealth and fame don’t buy you respect.  It might buy respect with people who voted for him but not with people who really matter and get things done.”

Jordan:  “That’s a rather elitist statement.  Actually, I think I know what you mean but those words wouldn’t play well with a lot of people.”

RespectGelly:  “There’s probably a better way to phrase it.  But just step back and think about it.  Who in your life do you respect?  If you made a list, I’ll bet many on the list don’t have much money…and certainly aren’t famous.”

Jordan:  “You’re right.  And you know what?  Not a single person that comes to mind sought public recognition.  Even if they were rich, they just made things happen…sometimes big things and sometimes small things but always unassuming and humble.”

Gelly:  “OK, so there you go.  Contrary to people on your list, little Donnie acted like a bully and thought people should respect him.  Even after he became president, he tried to bully everyone.  And what happened?  Did he earn anyone’s respect?”

Jordan:  “No, he lost it for himself and the US, other than with the bunch of other wanna be’s who continued to support him.  Little Donnie the bully became the laughing-stock of serious people worldwide.”

Gelly:  “Well, there is one thing we can thank him for.”

070715_2218_141SenseChe1.gifJordan:  “There is?  What’s that?”

Gelly:  “He hastened the Revenge Revolution.  The country was on track for a Revenge Revolution sometime in the next decade or so…but his behavior caused it to occur 5 years, maybe 10 years early.  I guess we should thank him for that, right?”

Jordan:  “I guess so.  It’s about the only thing we can thank him for.”

Gelly:  “Thanks Donnie for hastening the Revenge Revolution and getting America back on track…not your track but the right track.”

Jordan:  “With that point want to call this a wrap for the day?”

Gelly:  “Good idea.  Let’s get out of here.”

#259 Going after the Donald. Collusion? Illusion. Follow the Money. (Part 2)

06 Sunday Aug 2017

Posted by Jordan Abel in Lessons of Revolution

≈ Leave a comment

First-time readers, the dialogue in this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020).  Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution.  More about Revenge Revolution and author, Entry #1.  List and general description of entries to date.  Annual assessment if Revolution plausible.

Note: most characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations.  Profile of characters.  You’ll catch on quickly.  Thanks for your time and interest…and comments.

Scene: Jordan’s Washington office following meeting with Greenie and JC.  Series with JC and Greenie starts Entry #244 and ends Entry #257. This conversation starts #258.

092615_2031_Characters7.gifGelly:  “Ok, you’ve had your break.  Now tell me, if Trump was such a bad financial risk, why would the Russians…or anyone for that matter…lend him money?”

Jordan:  “Simple.  Lenders wanted to park money in a safe place.”

Gelly:  “I don’t get what you mean.  Trump’s a financial risk and investors want to park money in a safe place.  The two ideas are just the opposite.  Why not a bank?  What am I missing?”

Jordan:  “Put yourself in the shoes of say a Russian oligarch.”

Gelly:  “You mean like one of Putin’s cronies?”

TurtleneckJordan:  “Your term, not mine…but yes, like one of Putin’s cronies.  And Putin allowed you to run a ‘private’ company in Russia.”

Gelly:  “By ‘private’ you mean one of the companies that used to be run by the state.  Like some aluminum mining company?”

Jordan:  “Great example.  Your company’s product, aluminum, can be sold worldwide.”

Gelly:  “So the Russian company sold aluminum…and I assume for a profit.  Didn’t that profit automatically flow back to the company?”

Jordan:  “A portion of the profit, and maybe in some cases all the profit could have gone back to the company.  More likely a portion of the profit was skimmed off the top and distributed to Putin and his cronies.”

Money-clip-artGelly:  “Then what did they do with the money?  Kind of hard to hide if it all the money is inside Russia.  How’d they get the money out of the country?”

Jordan:  “Let’s say the aluminum was sold to a company in Brazil.  To pay for the aluminum, the Brazilian buyer told its bank to wire funds to the Russian company’s account at some international bank.  The international bank split the funds, depositing a portion to the Russian aluminum company and a portion to a different account.”

Gelly:  “The other account being for the benefit of Putin and cronies.  That’s legal?”

Jordan:  “Not if the bank knows what’s going on.  The account for Putin and cronies was probably under some corporate name.  Call it Russian Trading Company, LLC.”

Gelly:  “So the international bank justified transferring the money to the account for Putin and cronies because the Russian Trading Company supposedly earned some type of commission, or whatever…right?”

Jordan:  “You’re catching on fast.”

gangster-cartoon-clip-art-540pxGelly:  “This skimming goes on for a while and, voila, the Russian Trading Company has this big pile of money.  To protect themselves against a regime change and a new gang of thieves, I mean officials, Putin and company want to hide the money someplace.”

Jordan:  “If you had a pile of cash in a bank and wanted to park in a safe location, what would you invest in?”

Gelly:  “I suppose buy real estate in some safe country, like England or the US.  I’d buy real estate in maybe London, New York, Florida…maybe Washington.”

Jordan:  “And say in the last 15-20 years you’re a foreign national looking to buy real estate, what name might come to mind?  Who might be able to offer you property that you could purchase?”

Trump Tower SignGelly:  “Gee, let me think hard about that one.  None other than ‘Mr. Straight-Shooter Real-Estate-Developer’ himself, the Donald.”

Jordan:  “Bingo.”

Gelly:  “I understand the idea of buying real estate…but what about the risk?  Trump’s financial track record in real estate was marginal at best.”

Skimming MoneyJordan:  “If you obtain money illegally…like skimming it off the top…then you realize some portion might be lost as you try to make the illegal money appear legitimate.  Let’s just say that when dealing with Trump, Putin and cronies knew they might lose some of their ill-gotten gains.”

Gelly:  “So even if half the money was lost, they’d still end up with hundreds of millions…probably billions of dollars.”

Jordan:  “Remember that famous Trump real estate deal in Palm Beach?”

Duck with MoneyGelly:  “You mean that place he bought for about $40 million and sold not long after for $95-$100 million?  That one?”

Jordan:  “Yes.  And who was they buyer?”

Gelly:  “I don’t remember his name but some Russian oligarch.  The Russian paid Trump way too much money.  However, even if the buyer sold the property for what Trump paid for it, the oligarch has $40 million of illegal money stashed in the US.  At the same time, the Donald made a $60 million profit for doing nothing…well, turning a blind eye.”

Jordan:  “The Donald had to know what was happening with that deal.  Nobody would pay $100 million for a $40 million piece of property.  Now, for the Russians and the Donald, multiply that deal many time over.”

Golf FlagGelly:  “So that’s why, at least according to Donald Junior, the Russians were a major source of capital when Trump bought all those golf courses…like the one in Scotland…and Charlotte…and Mar-a-Lago…and Bedminster, NJ…and the list goes on and on.”

Jordan:  “And had the Donald and/or Junior kept their mouth shut, all would have likely been OK.  No one really started to probe the source of financing…at least until he became a presidential candidate.  Why no probe?  Because the funding ‘partner’ on the documents was some innocuous-sounding LLC.  Plus with the multi-layered corporate structures it was very hard to trace lenders and ownership.”

Gelly:  “I can’t believe I’m going to say this about Trump, but foreign financing of golf courses was not illegal per se was it?”

Jordan:  “No.  And you know what.  Had Trump not become president, it’s highly unlikely many of the financial shenanigans would have come to light.  But when he became president…and when he kept denying any association with Russia, he opened his kimono.”

Gelly:  “I understand that part.  Go back to the banks for a minute.  Surely they knew it was illegal to divert money from these Russian companies. C’mon.”

Jordan:  “I agree and most banks stayed away from those kinds of deals.”

Gelly:  “But apparently some banks were on the take…just like Putin and cronies?  Which banks?”

Jordan:  “In Trump’s case, two banks stood out.  Deutsche Bank and Bank of Cyprus.”

Cypress BankGelly:  “That Bank of Cyprus name rings a bell.  Wasn’t one of Trump’s cabinet members connected with that bank?”

Jordan:  “Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross was a major investor and vice-chairman of the Board.”

Gelly:  “Talk about blatant disregard for ethics and the law.  Trump flaunted his relationship with the Russians and then appointed what could have been his chief money-laundry guy to a cabinet post.”

Jordan:  “Don’t be so hard on Wilbur Ross.  His supporters claimed he cleaned house at Bank of Cyprus by getting rid of the Russians.”

Gelly:  “Maybe so, but given all the other misinformation that came out of the Trump White House, claims like that are hard to believe.  In any case, I want to understand what took so long to get Trump out of office.”

Money TrailJordan:  “You mean why didn’t the investigations just start by following the money trail rather than spend time on all the other issues?”

Gelly:  “Yes, seems like the best way to the truth is just follow the money trail.  Now, I need a break.”

 

 

 

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