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~ USA Headed for a 5th Revolution! Why?

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Monthly Archives: March 2014

#37 Cleaning Duke Energy’s Ash

29 Saturday Mar 2014

Posted by Jordan Abel in Back Asswards Thinking, Causes of the Revolution, Societal Issues, Stupid Is as Stupid Does

≈ Leave a comment

(Readers: Please note the blog about the 5th revolution in the US is constructed as a story. While not all chapters are linked, I think the story will be more meaningful by starting at the beginning.)

Want a PDF version for Entries #1-10, #11-20, #21-30 formatted for tablets and e-books?  Click links for download.  America’s 5th Revolution Volume I (Entries 1-10) America’s 5th Revolution Volume II (Entries 11-20) America’s 5th Revolution Volume III (Entries 21-30)

Scene: Jordan’s Office with JC

Jordan: “JC, nice to see you. What brings you here?”

JC: “Can you believe it?”

010414_1635_16TeachingS1.jpgJordan: “Believe what?”

JC: “The State of North Carolina gets dumber by the day.”

Jordan: “What are you talking about?”

JC: “I understand now why the revolution started in Charlotte. People…normal people anyway…had become so frustrated with the stupid actions of the NC legislators and some NC CEO’s.”

Jordan: “Are you saying ‘stupid is as stupid does’?”

JC: “Exactly. Supposedly smart people doing or saying stupid things.”

Jordan: “OK, what’s the issue?”

JC: “Two issues. One is the NC legislators cut the budget for staff of the Department of Natural Resources…they call it something else in NC. The budget cuts take effect about a month after a major coal-ash spill. Duh, folks, what are you doing?”

Jordan: “What’s the second issue?”

JC: “Duke Energy wants customers to pay for cleaning up the coal ash, which means Duke wants a rate increase.”

Jordan: “The cost of the cleanup is an expense.”

JC: “Jordan, sometimes you could join the ‘stupid is as stupid does’ club. Duke creates an environmental hazard because of their own actions and now wants customers to pay for their mistakes. I do not understand the logic.”

Jordan: “Duke needs to maintain profits in order to attract investors.”

JC: “Make me throw up. That’s the same stupid reasoning that allows Duke and other large companies to disregard many laws.”

Jordan: “What happens if Duke cannot recover expenses and ends up filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy?”

JC: “Maybe they should go Chapter 11. Duke blatantly disregards environmental laws. Duke must think that as a monopoly it has no obligations to the public.”

DukeEnergy CroppedJordan: “OK, so Duke goes Chapter 11. Who is going to operate the utility?”

JC: “Another company or convert it to a public utility. There are lots of public utilities – TVA, Santee Cooper in SC, Los Angeles Department of Water & Power…and many others. It’s not a new business model.”

Jordan: “You are really upset.”

Mickey-Mouse-fingerJC: “You should be, too. Duke and its goody-two-shoes CEO are basically given the public the finger.”

Jordan: “What do you suggest?”

JC: “First, Duke eats the cost of the clean up. If executives salaries have to be cut to pay for it, then so be it.”

Jordan: “You are getting into touchy territory.”

JC: “Someone has to be held responsible. And it cannot be the public.”

Jordan: “The Duke CEO was not in charge when the coal-ash ponds were started.”

JC: “Jordan, might I remind you, the CEO has been with Duke a very long time and was the Chief Financial Officer before being promoted. You think the CFO was unaware of the problem and/or had no authority? If so, then a lousy CFO.”

Jordan: “I hear you but solving the coal-ash problem is complicated.”

JC: “What is so complicated? Duke puts coal ash in a pond. The pond is not well secured and prone to leaks and spills. Fix the problem.”

Jordan: “Enforcing compliance with these laws is really up to the states – North Carolina and other states.”

JC: “Help!! Please someone, make him listen. Let me remind you the State of North Carolina cut the staff that is supposed to enforce compliance by Duke. Comprende?

Jordan: “OK. Other than a few no-government-under-any-circumstances people, this issue does seem appropriate for Washington to get involved.”

JC: “Finally he understands. Jordan, working with you makes my head hurt sometimes.”

Jordan: “What do think Washington should force Duke to do?”

JC: “At a minimum, relocate the coal ash. Right now many of the ponds are on rivers or lakes used as a source for public drinking water.”

Jordan: “Well, if there is a spill then the water treatment plant should be able to handle cleaning it up.”

JC: “Do you have any brains left? No, the water-treatment plant cannot remove all the arsenic, cadmium and other stuff that’s in the coal ash. Plus, what happens to all the fish and wildlife when the coal ash dumps into the river or lake? Please, get him a brain.”

Jordan: “Alright, so we have Duke move the coal ash. Where?”

JC: “Jordan. I don’t know. But there are practical solutions. Can’t you make bricks or blocks out of this stuff? Isn’t there a way to sort out the heavy metals?”

Jordan: “JC, you’re making my head hurt. I need some coffee then we’ll continue.”

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#36 New Category: “Stupid Is As Stupid Does”

26 Wednesday Mar 2014

Posted by Jordan Abel in Back Asswards Thinking, Background Stupid Is as Stupid Does, Causes of the Revolution, Stupid Is as Stupid Does

≈ 1 Comment

After several weeks of thinking about it, I decided to introduce a new category, “Stupid Is as Stupid Does.”

Entries will be based on events that are possible contributors to the cause of the Revenge Revolution. Events will be selected based severity and the potential for long-lasting impact. Some one-time events might have a severe and long-lasting impact – the Exxon Valdez spill, for example, or even worse an assassination. Other events, which individually seem unimportant, might cumulatively result in a severe and long-lasting impact. An example is daily discharge of small amounts of pollutants into a river or lake eventually renders the body of water uninhabitable. Another is continual restrictions on individual rights.

stupid Resized clipart-illustration-443616Some events will seem obvious, some more abstract. To qualify for “Stupid Is as Stupid Does” the event needs to be outside what one would consider “rational thinking.” When such events occur many people pause and ask, “What were they thinking?”

Lest those in glass houses not be accused of throwing stones, I am the first to admit we all make mistakes. But our individual goal should be to keep damage from mistakes to a minimum. When there is adequate time to analyze a situation and make a correction and no correction is made, then one becomes eligible for “Stupid Is as Stupid Does.”  Only “Stupid Is as Stupid Does” events will be included that could become contributors to the Revenge Revolution.

Ideally selection of the “Stupid Is as Stupid Does” decisions will not be based on “20-20 hindsight,” or using a sports term, based on “Monday-morning” quarterbacking.  The goal is to make the selection real time, recognizing there will be a short time lapse between the trigger event and the blog entry.  Further becoming “eligible” for the “Stupid Is as Stupid Does” category likely will require more than one decision.

Because repeated SIASD decisions are required for eligibility, the individual or organization likely suffers from a systemic failure to understand the implications of the action taken.  In very simple terms, “They just don’t get it.”

A series of decisions by two companies prompted the idea to develop this category.  The events were (1) Duke Energy’s decisions surrounding management of coal ash from power plants; (2) General Motors’ decision to not recall several model years’ production of vehicles with a clear safety problem.  More about each company’s actions will be detailed in a future entry.

After deciding to that a SIASD section would be worthwhile, I thought the number of entries would be infrequent.  I mean, really, can people and organizations be that stupid?  The answer is…unfortunately, yes.

One more example and then on to the SIASD write-ups.  In the March 16, 2003 “Review” section of the NY Times, there was an article about the lack of black characters in children’s books.  The article cited a study indicating only 93 of 2,300 children’s books published in CY2013 were about children of color.

Pardon me for the obvious, folks, but the solution is simple.  Encourage more writers of color to write about children of color.

Publishing a book has never been easier.  An author does not need an agent, not need a publisher.  E-books can be published at zero cost.  Yes, that is zero cost.  Understand?

In an earlier blog entry, I asked the question whether Black History Month was a benefit or detriment.  To me, citing the low percentage of children’s books with characters of color, with particular emphasis on black characters, is an example of whining and not stepping up and solving the problem.

The Internet does not discriminate.  There is no one, repeat no one, stopping writers of color from publishing more children’s books with characters of color.  Go solve the problem.

A point of clarification so some readers don’t get all exorcised.  Is discrimination a problem?  Yes.  Are some blacks denied certain rights?  Yes.  But groups that believe they are discriminated against, however one defines discrimination and/or defines a particular group, need to lead the effort to reduce the discrimination.  One way to lead is solve problems that can be solved by the group.  Increasing the number of children’s books with characters of color is about as easy a problem to solve as it gets.  Go do it.

Next entry: Cleaning Duke Energy’s Ash

#35 US Solar Efforts Back Asswards? (con’t)

22 Saturday Mar 2014

Posted by Jordan Abel in Back Asswards Thinking, Innovative Thinking: Ideas and Products, Possible Solutions

≈ Leave a comment

(Readers: Please note the blog about the 5th revolution in the US is constructed as a story. While not all chapters are linked, I think the story will be more meaningful by starting at the beginning.)

Want a PDF version for Entries #1-10, #11-20, #21-30 formatted for tablets and e-books?  Click links for download.  America’s 5th Revolution Volume I (Entries 1-10) America’s 5th Revolution Volume II (Entries 11-20) America’s 5th Revolution Volume III (Entries 21-30)

Scene: Jordan’s Office.  Jordan and Technology Man have refilled coffee.  Conversation about US solar energy efforts continues. 

Jordan: “I’m not forgetting about that venture. I learned just enough about batteries to be dangerous.”

TechManTechMan: “Even more dangerous than normal?”

Jordan: “I’ll ignore that comment. A lot of articles lately about breakthroughs in battery technology. But I remember two sayings from our battery days. ‘Technology will be ready in just five more years…”

TM: “…And, ‘Liars, damn liars and battery manufacturers.'”

Jordan: “It’s hard to tell what’s real progress and what’s hype. Based on what you know, what newer-technology, higher-energy density batteries are in production, affordable…and safe?”

Flow Battery cell_stack_illustrat_700TM: “Our old friend the flow battery is making a rebound. Flow batteries are ideal for storing electricity from solar…and wind.”

Jordan: “How would you link batteries to the electric grid? Right now, don’t all surplus electrons go back on the grid?”

TM: “If the truth be known, most of the electrons from solar and wind are likely wasted.”

Jordan: “You’re kidding? How?”

TM: “The current system makes it difficult for the utilities to integrate electricity from solar and wind.”

Jordan: “But it seems so simple.”

TM: “Like you said, Jordan, you know enough to be dangerous. Think about it the situation. A utility cannot count on a predictable flow of electrons from solar or wind. So what do they do?”

Jordan: “Why can’t they store the electrons?”

TM: “Hold on. We’ll get there. While the utilities will likely never admit it…at least publically…my guess is they keep the power plant operating as if there were no solar panels or wind…just to make sure there is enough electricity.”

Jordan: “From a planning standpoint I can’t blame them. If that’s true, then the only beneficiary of solar is the home owner who realizes a lower bill.”

TM:    “And whatever cost the homeowner saves is probably passed on to everyone else who does not have solar.”

Jordan: “So, at the end of the day, unless we can figure out how to store electrons. The power plant still operates the same way and…”

TM: “…Everyone else’s electric bill is slightly higher. But not high enough so that anyone can track it.”

Jordan: “What about storing electrons in electric vehicle batteries.”

TM: “Another brain freeze, Jordan? Have you forgotten everything you ever learned? Washington must really screw up the brain.”

Jordan: “Yeah, I know it was a stupid question. The minute I said it I wanted to retract it.”

TM: “OK, so you answered your own question.”

2014-chevrolet-volt-5Jordan: “Owners of 100% electric vehicles owners have a concern about range. Hybrid owners – Chevrolet Volt or Toyota Prius for example – don’t care because they can operate using the gas engine.”

TM: “Can you imagine a Nissan Leaf or Tesla owner jumping in their car after work in say a really hot day in July? Ready to leave and oops, not 2014-Nissan-Leaf-goenough juice left to run the AC or even make the trip home. Not a happy camper.”

Jordan: “Using electric vehicle battery packs to balance the peak load is only an option if someone is home or has access to another car.”

TM: “Like I said, the idea must have been concocted by someone who has never lived in the real world. You know, Washington.”

Jordan: “OK, so we should start putting solar on all rooftops and storing those electrons using a battery, maybe a flow battery.”

TM: “Yes. Localizing the generation…the rooftop…eliminates the losses in transmission. Electrons go from the roof to the battery to the appliance.”

Jordan: “How do we make this work?”

TM: “First, you cannot put the utilities out of business. Utilities need to be part of the solution. Next, we need to start establishing localized grids. Some people call them micro-grids.”

Jordan: “You are saying that utilities, even though part of the problem, are also part of the solution.”

TM: “Think about your automotive days. The government and the auto companies finally started working together to reduce tailpipe emissions and reduce fuel consumption. They’ve made good progress.”

Jordan: “How can the utilities be part of the solution? Their business model is built around large grids, not micro-grids.”

TM: “Let’s start with the revenue stream so Wall Street won’t have apoplexy. Utilities can help fund the purchase and installation of the solar panels.”

Jordan: “Are you suggesting utilities buy the panels and then let the utilities charge customers for the panels with electricity bills, something like a mortgage?”

TM: “Yes. The model is already working in some locations. For the user, the electricity bill would be lower but the utility would also be paid back for buying and installing the panels.”

Jordan: “Utilities keep a revenue stream and reallocate capital to solar panels rather than building a new power plant.”

TM: “A big hurdle is convincing the coal lobby this makes sense? Coal lobby is well entrenched in Washington.”

Jordan: “Coal needs to realize the world is changing. Unless the coal companies can figure out how to make clean energy from coal, they will go the way of buggy-whip manufacturers.”

TM: “What about all the people employed in the coal mining industry?”

Jordan: “What about all the people that used to be employed in the auto industry, especially in Michigan? You know as well as anyone that technology can be a disruptive force. Businesses need to change to stay in business. Issues facing coal are not new.”

TM: “Some people are going to claim you are anti-union, especially against the mine workers.”

Jordan: “Look, times change and the groups involved need to quit pointing fingers and start solving problems.”

TM: “Unlike your former employer.”

Jordan: “They finally came around but it took Chapter 11 as a wake-up call. As far as solar, based on what you said we should be able to create a cost-effective micro-grid arm-wrestling-695086using existing solar and battery technology…and working with utilities.”

TM: “Yes, some arm wrestling required but the goal is achievable.”

Jordan: “Technology Man, you have got yourself a job.”

TM: “Why did I agree to have coffee with you? OK, I’ll do it.”

#34 US Solar Energy Efforts Back Asswards?

19 Wednesday Mar 2014

Posted by Jordan Abel in Back Asswards Thinking, Causes of the Revolution, Innovative Thinking: Ideas and Products, Possible Solutions

≈ Leave a comment

(Readers: Please note the blog about the 5th revolution in the US is constructed as a story. While not all chapters are linked, I think the story will be more meaningful by starting at the beginning.)

Want a PDF version for Entries #1-10, #11-20, #21-30 formatted for tablets and e-books?  Click links for download.  America’s 5th Revolution Volume I (Entries 1-10) America’s 5th Revolution Volume II (Entries 11-20) America’s 5th Revolution Volume III (Entries 21-30)

Scene: Jordan and Technology Man having coffee and bagels.

Jordan: “Technology Man, are you in between black-hole projects for the military?”

TechManTechMan: “Jordan, you know I can’t tell you anything about what I do.”

Jordan: “I know. But from what little I know you’ve been involved in some really interesting projects — stealth fighters, drones, weird electronics, and who knows what else.  Plus, the other fun things that you do — like photography.”

TechMan: “OK, Jordan. Now tell me, why are we having coffee beyond just catching up?”

Jordan: “Why would think I had something in mind?”

TM: “I’ve known you too long.”

Jordan: “Just a simple question for you.”

TM: “Simple questions are a rarity from you.”

Jordan: “I need to get your ideas on establishing a national policy for solar energy. Solar seems great. Clean source of energy. Solar is everywhere, at least some of the time.”

TM: “So what about the policy?”

Jordan: “The ‘so what’ is the approach the US is taking to solar. We don’t have a real policy. And the lack of a coherent policy was part of the cause of the revolution.”

TM: “You think so?”

Jordan: “Yes, too much reliance on coal and lots of resistance to alternative fossil fuels.”

TM: “The resistance still baffles me. The fossil-fuel energy companies have such a great opportunity to capitalize on solar and wind…and they don’t do it.”

Jordan: “When the companies do get involved, they use an antiquated approach.”

TM: Such as…”

Jordan: “Building large solar farms but putting the solar farms in the middle of nowhere.”

solar_panelsTM: “Jordan, where do you think most farms are? Farms are in the middle of nowhere.”

Jordan: “Yes, but middle of nowhere means the transportation to consumers.”

TM: “I agree the problem with solar farms in the middle of nowhere is the same – distance between the farm and the user.”

Jordan: “From what I understand, transmitting electrons over long distances is not very efficient.”

TM: “Inefficient is a better word. Not unusual for 50% of the electricity generated at a remote power plant not to make it to the user.”

Jordan: “Half lost? So what we are doing with these remote locations is doubling the size of the power plant…in this case solar farm…to compensate for the losses in transmission.”

TM: “Even worse. Many solar farms and wind farms require new transmission lines to get the electricity from the farm to the user. The cost of the lines is substantial. Plus some utilities are trying to put the new transmission lines through underdeveloped and environmentally sensitive areas. Why? Because it is easier and cheaper.”

Jordan: “What you’re describing is why current thinking about the best way to use solar and probably wind seems to be back asswards.”

TM: “Many of the plans for solar and wind have been developed by the same folks who wanted coal plants in remote locations so residents wouldn’t complain about emissions…and coal ash ponds.”

Jordan: “Alright, so what should the policy be for solar? We have a chance to make some changes.”

TM: “The most cost-effective approach, I think, is to install solar on all rooftops, whether residential or commercial buildings. And some locations are encouraging that.”

Jordan: “Solar on roofs is adequate to handle all electricity needs?”

TM: “Not until solar gets more efficient. But installing the panels cuts way back on the need for new power plants and likely eliminates the need for some older, coal-fired plants.”

Jordan: “What else would you do?”

TM: “Start storing electricity generated by solar. Right now electricity from solar is either consumed at the site or pushed onto the grid. But the problem is the mismatch of generation and demand. We need to store surplus electrons for use later.”

Jordan: “You talking about storing in batteries? Isn’t that very expensive?”

TM: “Speaking of batteries. I need to recharge mine with another cup of coffee.”

To be continued

#33 Rekindling the Emotional Bond with Detroit

15 Saturday Mar 2014

Posted by Jordan Abel in Economics, Innovative Thinking: Ideas and Products, Societal Issues

≈ Leave a comment

(Readers: Please note the blog about the 5th revolution in the US is constructed as a story. While not all chapters are linked, I think the story will be more meaningful by starting at the beginning.)

Want a PDF version for Entries #1-10, #11-20, #21-30 formatted for tablets and e-books?  Click links for download.  America’s 5th Revolution Volume I (Entries 1-10) America’s 5th Revolution Volume II (Entries 11-20) America’s 5th Revolution Volume III (Entries 21-30)

Scene: Jordan’s Office with the housing Guru.  Continuing conversation.

Guru: “OK, Jordan, we have our coffee refill.     Tell me what I need to know about making the rehab in Detroit more appealing.”

122213_1351_10GurusIdea1.gifJordan: “You consider yourself a car guy?”

Guru: “Huh? What do you mean?”

Jordan: “You answered the question. You’re not a car guy. Detroit still is the car capital of the world, even if many assembly plants have left.”

Guru: “Where is this conversation headed?”

Jordan: “Are you a fan of Motown music?”

Guru: “Who isn’t? Motown music is alive. It’s lasted several generations and cuts across all ethnic groups.”

Jordan: “And for good reason. The Motown sound is great music.”

Guru: “OK. So are you saying the rehab needs to incorporate cars and Motown?”

Jordan: “In spirit anyway. The rehab program has got to have a soul. It somehow needs to build the same kind of emotional bond that people have with their cars and people have with Motown music.”

Guru: “How am I supposed to do that?”

Jordan: “Guru, that’s your job. You’re the architect…you’re the designer. I’m just the client.”

Guru: “Give me some more guidance about what you want. Start with cars.”

Jordan: “Cars and trucks are very high tech. Today even the least expensive cars have extensive integration of electrical and mechanical components. Somehow the rehab needs to highlight the combination of electrical and mechanical functions. Show how automated functions can make an older building modern.”

Guru: “Like automated parking, for example?”

Jordan: “There you go. Perfect example.”

Guru: “Many of these old factories are wide – in fact, too wide for two modular units and still meet the code for natural lighting. We could have parking between the units…and automate the parking.

Jordan: “Automated parking inside the building that used to assemble cars. I like that.”

Guru: “Now, let’s try to build on that idea. What else can we do?”

Jordan: “How much electronics can you include in the building and in the modular units?

Guru: “As much as you want. All electric circuits and outlets could be integrated – just like a smart house. You can also link the circuits to a smart phone or car.”

Jordan: “What about upgrades to the circuits over time?”

Guru: “How many times are you going to ask me that same question?”

Jordan: “I don’t know. But the modular unit should be designed to allow the resident to upgrade easily wiring and other electrical features for at least 50 years, and preferably 100 years.”

Guru: “All the wiring is on the outside of the module and easily accessible for upgrades and any repairs.”

Jordan: “I know. But just want to make sure it can be upgraded easily.  By the way, we need to stop calling these modular units.  It’s confusing.”

Guru:  “What’s so confusing?”

Jordan:  “People think of modular in the same vein as double-wides.”

Guru:  “They’re completely different.”

Jordan:  “Maybe to you and people in the industry but not to most folks, me included.”

Guru:  “You have a better name?”

Jordan:  “What about ‘component construction’?  Sometimes the component can be large — like an entire unit — or sometimes small — like apportion of a wall.  Using the term ‘component construction’ is easier to understand and allows more flexibility.”

Guru: “Alright, we’ll call it ‘component construction.’  But I might slip every now and then.  Moving right along. What about incorporating the themes of different car companies – Ford, GM, and Chrysler? What about other companies?”

Jordan: “There were lots of companies. In 1910 there were about 400 companies nationwide making cars and some making few trucks. By 1920, I think the number was closer to 20 companies. Many became part of larger companies – GM included Buick, Cadillac, Oldsmobile, Chevrolet and later Pontiac. Cadillac also had the LaSalle brand.”

Guru: “What about other companies that were not acquired. Wasn’t Packard in Detroit?”

Jordan: “Yes. A number of other companies were in Indiana – Auburn, Cord, Duesenberg, and Studebaker. But let’s focus on companies in southeast Michigan.”

Guru: “Alright. What else you thinking about?”

Jordan: “Well, we could name a floor after a company and use the theme from the brand for certain features or design themes on the floor. We don’t want to get too cutesy but capture some of the history.”

Guru: “You worked at both Cadillac and Buick, didn’t you?”

Jordan: “Yes, even though Buick was based in Flint, there is a lot of connection to Detroit. For one, Buick was the cornerstone for GM.”

???????????????Guru: “You know what I remember most about Buick? Portholes.”

Jordan: “You’re not alone. Portholes have been a Buick signature for 70 years.”

Guru: “Portholes are a great branding idea.”

Jordan: “The original portholes were to cool the engine but the look quickly became associated with Buick. Years ago when I was at Buick my nephew, about 9 or 10 at the time, and my brother were doing their weekend ‘Let’s go to the junk yard routine.'”

Guru: “Obviously true car guys.”

Jordan: “My nephew sees a stack of crushed cars and yells, ‘Look there’s a Buick. I see the portholes.'”

Guru: “What great brand identity. Recognizing a brand in a stack of crushed cars. That gives me an idea. We could use portholes or circular lamps on one of the floors or in the lobby. Tell me some other themes.”

Ford OvalJordan: “Ford uses the ‘oval’ in the middle of the grill. Chevrolet uses the ‘bow tie.’ The original Chrysler logo looks like an award ribbon. Cadillac has the crest. Fisher Body used what looks like a carriage for a queen. There are all kinds of logos.”

ChevroletGuru: “So if we wanted, we could incorporate some of the logos as escutcheons for door locks – the Ford oval or the Cadillac crest. Or, we could also use door handles from certain models. Didn’t older cars have pull down handles?”

Jordan: “Yes. Another feature from early model cars – at least Fisher Body LogoI know it was true for Cadillac – is the opera lamp. Opera lamps were used originally on horse-drawn carriages. Cadillac brought back opera lamps many years later.”

Guru: “You know we could use automotive lighting – past and present – throughout the building and the parking area. We could actually use headlamp bezels from cars as light fixtures.”

Jordan: “Now you’re thinking like a car guy.’

Guru: “We could also make a mosaic in the front lobby…or maybe outside the elevators on every floor. The mosaic pattern would be a company logo. Hey, I’m liking this.”

Jordan: “One more thing. How would you mix different periods of design? In the early years cars were much like horse carriages. During the 1930’s there was a lot of art deco – Buick had an metallic instrument panel. Can you mix and match decades in the building?

Guru: “Not sure about combining features of early design with the art deco or the modern design on the same floor, for example. But let me think about it.”

Jordan: “We’ve not talked about how to incorporate Motown but I’m sure you will think of something.”

Guru: “Let me work on incorporating automotive stuff first. Then we can talk Motown.”

Jordan: “OK, when will you have ideas to review?”

Guru: “Give me a week or so. I need to get focused.”

Jordan: “Thanks, Guru. See you soon.”

#32 Helping Rebuild Detroit and Other Cities

12 Wednesday Mar 2014

Posted by Jordan Abel in Innovative Thinking: Ideas and Products, Possible Solutions, Societal Issues

≈ Leave a comment

(Readers: Please note the blog about the 5th revolution in the US is constructed as a story. While not all chapters are linked, I think the story will be more meaningful by starting at the beginning.)

Scene: Jordan’s Office with Housing Guru (see earlier entries for initial discussion)

Jordan: “Guru, nice to see you. Where have you been hiding?”

122213_1351_10GurusIdea1.gifGuru: “Hiding from you so I can get some work done. Actually, I’ve been revising the plan to economically rebuild housing in Detroit – at least part of it.”

Jordan: “Great. I am all ears because POTUS is interested also. What do you have?”

Guru: “POTUS? You’re kidding. You talked to POTUS about this?”

Jordan: “He called me. Met him at the White House. Saying he’s interested in this project is an understatement. He views Detroit as a template for many cities.”

Guru: “That’s good and bad. This project has become very high profile.”

Jordan: “You wanted to rebuild your architectural practice. Well, here’s the chance. Now, we need get this project going. The next call from someone on POTUS’s staff will be asking for a progress report, not just ideas.”

Guru: “Glad he agrees problems in Detroit are not unique, just the most visible. Many US cities have an eroding tax base, high legacy pension costs and infrastructure in need of serious repair.”

Jordan: “Guru, I agree completely. Now we need to layout specific ideas for Detroit and a timeline for implementation.”

Guru: “The idea is simple and what we discussed. Convert existing industrial structures into residential and commercial space.”

Jordan: “That’s what I told POTUS. His question was, ‘Isn’t converting a factory to housing expensive and fraught with problems?'”

Guru: “And I hope you said ‘likely’ unless you think modular.”

Jordan: “Exactly what I said. You’ve trained me well. We also discussed how we need to overcome the negative perception of modular.”

Guru: “I understand. Maybe a start would be to include photos of the modular homes that I designed and built in Charlotte.”

122213_1311_9Guruandthe4.jpgJordan: “Very nice homes and much better than I expected. Now, how do we, in Ricky Ricardo terms, ‘splain’ the modular concept to prospective buyers, the public and financiers?”

Guru: “I’ve done a simulation using CAD of using modular in a factory. We can combine the simulation with the video I did of the houses being assembled in Charlotte.”

Jordan: “By the way, before I forget, POTUS is arranging meetings with head of HUD and senior legislators in Southeast Michigan. We need to have some presentation ready for those meetings.”

Guru: “Jordan, you remind me of my clients. Here’s an idea. What can I look at tomorrow?”

Jordan: “You and I know this is a big deal and great opportunity. We need to be ready.”

Guru: “I know. Let me outline the general content of the pitch.”

Jordan: “Keep going.”

Guru: “The idea is build the units in one factory and install them in a former factory that is now empty. We are replacing a slab of dirt where a house usually sits with a slab of factory floor.”

Jordan: “What other differences?”

Fisher 21Guru: “The rest is fairly straightforward. The factory needs to have enough floor-to-ceiling height to handle the modular unit and some crawl space — for support braces and any adjustments to level the floor – and some space above for ventilation. But most factories have more than enough room.”

Jordan: “What about width. Aren’t there big support posts in these buildings?”

Guru: “Yes, but generally the posts are far enough apart to create adequate living space in between.”

Jordan: “So the module is built in a factory, like today, and then transported to the site. Once there the unit slides in the building?’

Guru: “Yes. But the factory for modular units can be set up next to the building to be rehabbed.  Lots of creative thinking to make that happen but that is a good description. Some units are bedrooms, some are kitchens and baths. It is easy to mix and match.”

Jordan: “What about plumbing and electrical? Are you going to use what’s in the building?”

Guru: “All the plumbing and electrical are on the outside walls of the modular unit so hook-ups are easy and maintenance is easy. The plumbing and electrical from all the units converge at a central location and link to the existing infrastructure. The unit could have a separate unit for purifying water and generating electricity – like the one you’ve been working on.”

Jordan: “How wide are these units?”

Guru: “No more than 20′ for a lot of reasons.”

Jordan: “So once inside the existing building, can you somehow link these units together to make say a three-bedroom apartment?”

Guru: “There are tricks to hooking the units together but yes. And with some creative designs, most people will never know.”

Jordan: “What about all the crud in some of those old buildings? I think of the assembly plants and sheet-metal plants I’ve been in. Who knows what stuff is really in there.”

Guru: “Remediation needs to be completed for the major problems. There are all kinds of products to seal floors, ceilings, pipes, etc. Besides all the plumbing and electrical will be new.”

Jordan: “Could you use this same idea to rehab old hotels, apartment buildings, college dorms?”

Guru: “Each of those could be done. Old factories have the most flexibility because the openings are generally larger. When the opening is smaller – hotel room, or even some factories for example – the modular unit might have to be assembled in the living space. You know, like final assembly of a car.”

Jordan: “Most people do not realize how much sub-assembly there is in a car or truck. Final assembly is the most fun to watch.”

Guru: “We could do a lot of sub-assembly work offsite and do final assembly on site.”

Jordan: “Either way do you think the rehab cost will be competitive?'”

Guru: “Yes. It is also important that total costs are considered. What is the value for taxpayers of a building sitting empty versus one that has people living in it? What is the cost to the city of tearing down a building versus rehabbing it? A lot of times people just compare the cost per square foot of new construction to the cost per square foot of the rehab. Those comparisons do not consider the other costs. Yes, the proposal is competitive.”

Jordan: “This is a great start, Guru. Hats off to you. When can I get some drawings for the upcoming meetings?”

Guru: “You never let up do you. Look, I’m not a meeting guy, especially for political stuff. My shtick is architecture. And my real expertise is making existing spaces more functional and more attractive. And what I really dislike is seeking funding for these projects.”

Jordan: “I can help with meetings and the funding, although no guarantees on funding. Everyone agrees if the project in Detroit is successful, other projects will follow in Detroit and elsewhere.”

Guru: “That potential is exciting.”

Jordan: “One of our hurdles in rebuilding Detroit will be overcoming all the bad press. A lot of people think Detroit caused all of its problems. I agree many problems were self inflicted but not all.”

Guru: “You bad-mouthing Detroit?”

Jordan: “I am not bad-mouthing Detroit. But I am being realistic. Detroit has been in decline for nearly 50 years. It might take the next 50 years to complete the turnaround.”

Guru: “It would help me tremendously if I understood what Detroit was like and the vision for where it wants to go. I can integrate some of the history and the vision into the designs.”

Jordan: “OK, I’ll tell you what I know. But let’s get some coffee first.”

#31 Rebuilding the Heartbeat of America: Detroit

08 Saturday Mar 2014

Posted by Jordan Abel in Innovative Thinking: Ideas and Products, Possible Solutions, Societal Issues

≈ Leave a comment

(Readers: Please note the blog about the 5th revolution in the US is constructed as a story. While not all chapters are linked, I think the story will be more meaningful by starting at the beginning.)

Scene: POTUS Office, who called Jordan about plans for rebuilding neighborhoods in Detroit

POTUS:  “Jordan, thanks for coming by. Appreciate you changing your schedule.”

white-house-clip-art1Jordan: “Mr. President my schedule is much more flexible than yours.’

POTUS:  “I understand you have a proposal to help rebuild Detroit. And I understand the central theme is ‘Rebuilding the Heartbeat of America.’ I like the theme even if you did steal it from an old Chevrolet ad campaign.”

heartbeat-of-americalogoJordan: “I’m sure Chevy won’t mind. Besides the program will be good PR for them.”

POTUS:  “Tell me more about the plan. How are we going to make this work?”

Jordan: “Glad you emphasized the word we. The problems Detroit is facing are much more widespread than Detroit. And the solutions need to include more groups than just in Detroit.”

POTUS:  “Part of the problem is having the US populous understand the solution is not just Detroit. Detroit and the solution are really national issues.”

Jordan: “I agree but I am not certain how many people outside southeast Michigan understand that.”

POTUS:  “You’re right. For right now, let’s stick with plans for Detroit. So, tell me Jordan, old wise man, how are you going to make this work?”

Jordan: “Detroit has a strategic plan…more of a framework than a real plan. But the idea is to rebuild employment, improve housing, and make the city more livable by expanding parks and some ancillary programs that reinforce the core efforts. What the plan lacks is specifics.”

POTUS:  “You think Heartbeat of America will work with the general plan?”

Jordan: “Yes. Detroit’s strategic plan could become the model for many cities. The Heartbeat program provides a rallying cry and begins to put meat on the bones.”

POTUS: “Good. My experience, and I think yours as well, is that most people need details and examples, not an abstract general plan. What have you got? Let’s start with housing.”

Jordan: “If you think outside the box, some of Detroit’s biggest problems can become a major asset.”

POTUS: “Jordan, I agree but you sound like some politician.”

Jordan: “It’s really true. For one there is a lot of open land. Two there are many industrial buildings currently unoccupied but in reasonable shape. And many of the larger building could be turned into housing.”

POTUS: “Is converting an industrial building to residential housing practical? Seems like a lot of work and expense.”

Jordan: “Depends on how you approach rehabbing the building. If you think about the building as a shell with just a roof and a floor, then a number of options become available.”

POTUS: “What do you mean?”

Jordan: “Take an old assembly plant. Trying to build apartments using the existing interior space would be difficult and expensive. Using the space to house a module for living or a module for an office changes the equation.”

POTUS: “How so?”

Jordan: “You’ve seen Russian dolls, where one doll fits inside another.”

Russian DollsPOTUS: “I’ve seen a lot of Russian dolls. But different kind. But I got the picture.”

Jordan: “The building is the outside doll. Then the next doll is a fixed space within the building. Then the next doll fits inside the fixed space. The point is one fits inside the other.”

POTUS: “So the smaller doll can fit inside even if the larger doll has some bumps and imperfections. You want to use most of the space but do not have to use all the space.”

Jordan: “Exactly. You can make different size dolls and different looking dolls. The point is that one fits inside another.”

POTUS: “Where do you build the units?”

Jordan: “Units can be built in a factory and delivered as a nearly completed modules or built as partially assembled units with final assembly on site.”

POTUS: “Which approach is better, or does it matter?”

Jordan: “Quality with factory built probably slightly better. The real issue is constraints of the building. The design concept needs to be flexible enough to allow conversion of as many buildings as possible to residential or attractive offices.”

POTUS: “I agree. Don’t limit the opportunity to convert many older buildings. The structures are usually sound and the buildings help keep the character of Detroit…or whatever city.”

Jordan: “Glad to hear you support linking the future to the past, at least in some regard.”

POTUS: “I am no architect, but what I do know is a very high percentage of people like the look and feel of older buildings. But the same buildings need to have up-to-date wiring, plumbing and other conveniences.

Jordan: “The design allows upgrades over time as well so the unit can be up-to-date 50 years from now.”

POTUS: “Great. I have another question. Are you really talking about modular housing?”

Jordan: “Yes, sort of. I know modular has such a negative connotation. But in a way it is higher tech. Skyscrapers are being built using modular construction. Look at this YouTube video, Skyscraper in 15 Days.”

POTUS: “Wow, that’s impressive. When I hear the word modular, even after watching the video, I think double-wide.”

Jordan: “The irony is quality of factory-built housing is superior to traditional stick-build. However, even if people understand if modular has superior quality, there is a negative connotation to modular.”

POTUS: “Reminds me of the problem we have in this country with public transportation. Higher income, highly educated people have no problem whatsoever taking a train. But a bus? Not a chance. Even if the bus is faster and cheaper, ridership is not the same as a train. A train is OK but not a bus.”

Jordan: “I confess, I fall in that category. I will take almost any train and avoid almost any bus.”

POTUS: “So you are the problem!”

Jordan: “I have a lot of company. Seriously, to begin overcoming the negative perception of modular housing, we need a few showpieces constructed using modular. And Detroit would be a good place to start.”

POTUS: “Have you got a target in mind?”

Jordan: “Yes, an auto plant that is currently unoccupied. The plant has a lot of history and is interesting architecturally.”

POTUS: “Any major problems?”

Jordan: “Building is generally sound. Couple of structural repairs. There are some environmental remediation issues. All solvable based on what we know now.”

POTUS: “There is a super fund that should pay for most remediation costs, especially if the building can be converted to a livable site. What other problems?”

Jordan: “The project seems to dovetail nicely with the strategic plan adopted by the City of Detroit. The project could be a showpiece for the City…but it needs support both in concept and financially.”

POTUS: “Is the general approach adaptable to other sites, or is this just a one-off, thank you very much program?”

Jordan: “Highly adaptable to different building configurations and interior spaces. The approach will work throughout southeast Michigan – Detroit, Pontiac, Flint, Lansing and points in between. It will also work in virtually any other US city…and worldwide.”

POTUS: “Now we’re talking. Give me three major selling points. I’ll make some phone calls for you.”

Jordan: “Three key points: (i) rehab will be the foundation for neighborhood redevelopment without changing neighborhood character (ii) rehab creates local employment, including suppliers (iii) rehab design can link to and complements other neighborhood efforts.”

POTUS: “Here’s the deal. I call three people: (i) head of HUD (ii) senior senator from Michigan (iii) senior representative from SE Michigan. You meet with each of them and get reaction to the proposal. If they support, we proceed. If not, you are on your own.”

Jordan: “Thanks. I owe you one.”

POTUS: “I’ll keep that in mind. You’ve helped me. Glad I could return the favor. Rehabbing cities is a big problem and a long-term problem. Whoever is in office is going to need lots of help.”

#30 Government Has No Assets?

05 Wednesday Mar 2014

Posted by Jordan Abel in Definitions, Economics, Societal Issues

≈ 1 Comment

(Readers: Please note the blog about the 5th revolution in the US is constructed as a story. While not all chapters are linked, I think the story will be more meaningful by starting at the beginning.)

Want a PDF version for Entries #1-10 and 11-20 formatted for tablets and e-books?  Click links for download.  America’s 5th Revolution Volume I (Entries 1-10)  America’s 5th Revolution Volume II (Entries 11-20)

Scene: Same coffee shop. Jordan sees Greenie third day in a row.

Greenie: “Jordan, over here.”

010414_1635_16TeachingS2.jpgJordan: “Greenie – three days in a row. What will people think?”

Greenie: “People in this town actually think? Here’s your coffee. And no more meetings after today. At least for awhile.”

Jordan: “This is good service – coffee every day. What’s up?”

Greenie: “One more question about issues in economics that are counterintuitive – not really common sense.”

Jordan: “And that is…?”

Greenie: “A lot of people keep saying the government has too much debt. And they might be right. But I never hear these people talk about what the government owns.”

Jordan: “Greenie, you are very perceptive. Yes, the government has debt. The government also has assets – land, buildings, equipment. Lots of assets.”

Greenie: “Why doesn’t anyone talk about the value of what the government owns?”

Jordan: “Couple of reasons. One is talking about government assets would weaken the case against too much government debt. Another issue is the government does not really put a value on all that it owns.”

AccountingGreenie: “Really? You mean there is no what do you call it…balance sheet…for government property?”

Jordan: “No balance sheet. There is a list of what the government owns but no value is assigned to it.”

Greenie: “So an asset is only assigned a number, not a value. There is no value put on all the roads, bridges, building, parks, oil leases, military equipment, scientific equipment and all that other stuff?

Jordan: “No value assigned.”

Greenie: “That seems really stupid. When private companies buy something they assign a value. When you try to get a mortgage they assign a value to the house.”

Jordan: “It is a political problem. Not having a value assigned allows people opposed to any kind of government debt to emphasize the debt and not the value of what funds are used to buy.”

Greenie: “Companies take on debt all the time in order to buy more assets. Why shouldn’t the government recognize assets?”

Jordan: “Your point is well taken. Tax payers do not know the value of government holdings. All taxpayers hear about is a certain building cost say $50 million. That building might be worth $75 million.

Greenie: “If a company owned the building, everyone would cheer and say it was a smart investment. Many of those same people chastise the government for spending $50 million, even though the building is worth $75 million. By the way, why doesn’t the government value assets?”

Jordan: “Part history. Government never had a need to put a value on assets. Part tax law. Private investors can depreciate buildings and equipment over time, which reduces taxes. Government pays no taxes so no need to assign a value.”

Greenie: “What about lenders? Aren’t most loans backed by some type of collateral? Someone still holds the mortgage to my condo. The finance company’s name was on the title of my car until I paid it off.”

Jordan: “One big difference between lending to individuals or companies and lending to the government. The government can always print more money to pay off the loan. Individuals and companies cannot. So the lender needs some type collateral as a guarantee.”

Greenie: “OK, I’ll buy that is a big difference. But if government recognized the value of assets, seems like the tone of the conversation about the amount of debt might change.”

Jordan: “If the Federal government were a company, the balance sheet of the government might show a surplus of assets over liabilities – you know debt. That would definitely change the story about debt.”

Failure to CommunicateGreenie: “Reminds me of a line of a classic movie, ‘Cool Hand Luke.’ ‘What we have is a failure to communicate.'”

Jordan: “Great example and spot on. I think you need to include in your education program the implications of government not valuing assets. People need to understand parts of economics are not common sense.”

Greenie: “I will. Right now we have three parts of economics that seem counterintuitive. One is why in economic downturns…or upturns…the Federal government should behave differently than companies or individuals. Two is why backing the money supply with precious metal is no guarantee of value. Three is government has assets for which no value is assigned. Whew! That’s a mouthful.”

Jordan: “Might be a mouthful but should be a great educational program. When do you think you’ll be ready?”

Greenie: “Jordan, I need some time to make this easy to understand for everyone. A couple of weeks at least. I’ll let you know.”

Jordan: “Great. And I’ll buy coffee next time.”

Greenie: “Wow. Mr. Generosity himself. Don’t go overboard. But thanks. See you Jordan.”

#29 Money Supply Backed by Gold – Logical…Illogical?

01 Saturday Mar 2014

Posted by Jordan Abel in Economics, Possible Solutions, Societal Issues

≈ 1 Comment

(Readers: Please note the blog about the 5th revolution in the US is constructed as a story. While not all chapters are linked, I think the story will be more meaningful by starting at the beginning.)

Want a PDF version for Entries #1-10 and 11-20 formatted for tablets and e-books?  Click links for download.  America’s 5th Revolution Volume I (Entries 1-10)  America’s 5th Revolution Volume II (Entries 11-20)

Scene: Coffee shop – Jordan sees Greenie

Jordan: “Greenie. Two days in a row. What a coincidence.”

010414_1635_16TeachingS2.jpgGreenie: “No coincidence. Jordan. I was hoping to catch you here. Thought you might be a creature of habit like most men. So I took an early train and have been waiting for you.”

Jordan: “Let me get a coffee first.”

Greenie: “I have one for you and it’s still hot.”

Jordan: “Great service. Now, what am I in for?”

Greenie: “Yesterday you jokingly made me the chair of the President’s Council of Economic Advisors. We laughed about schmacro economics and schmicro economics.”

Jordan: “You caught on quickly.”

Greenie: “I got to thinking about that later and it bothered me. By all standards I am considered well educated and yet I did not know some fundamentals of economics.”

Jordan: “Give yourself a break. You know the fundamentals but not the correct terms.”

Greenie: “No. When you explained the role of government and how it differs from the role of families and even companies, I looked at economics from a much different perspective.”

Jordan: “Glad the discussion helped. But what is the issue?”

Greenie: “If I am considered so well educated and do not understand…didn’t understand…the basics of economics, then how many other people are in the same boat?”

Jordan: “Unfortunately, I think it is a very large boat and includes many people in Congress.”

Greenie: “How do we get people exposed to how economics works…at least the people in Congress?”

Jordan: “We started an educational program for new congressional members. That program should help keep the discussion more rationale and help put some logic back in proposed legislation…at least at the Federal level.”

Greenie: “But there is still a large block of people who oppose any kind of government intervention in the economy. This group espouses the free market as the only way to manage the economy.”

Jordan: “Some in that group will never change, no matter the evidence. But your concern is a good one. What do we do to help educate the public about the fundamentals of economics?”

Greenie: “I used to think of economics as the dismal science. At least that’s what a lot of people called it – a dismal science.”

Jordan: “You’re calling me dismal?”

Greenie: “Jordan, you can be dismal at times (laughing). But after your lecture yesterday I realized economics can be exciting.”

Jordan: “I am glad you think so. I have said this before but for me most of economics to be common sense. Notice I said most of economics. Part of economics is counterintuitive.”

Greenie: “I think therein lies a big part of the problem. People do not understand which parts of economics are common sense and which parts are counterintuitive. So now tell me, which parts are not common sense.”

Jordan: “Yesterday we talked about one. A lot of people think government should act like households in economic downturns – cut back on spending. But the role of government is just the opposite of households.”

Greenie: “After yesterday I understand the Federal government needs to spend money in recessions to stimulate the economy. Then it needs to slow spending a bit when the economy is expanding. Give me another example that’s counterintuitive.”

Jordan: “The money supply needs to be backed by precious metals – gold, silver, platinum…whatever.”

money_bag_&_gold_barsGreenie: “Now that seems logical. Otherwise the money is backed by someone’s guarantee, which might or might not be good.”

Jordan: “Think about what metals we call precious. Let’s take gold. Other than looking pretty in jewelry and making electronic circuits operate faster, what value does gold have?”

Greenie: “I like gold.”

Greenie: “Liking it is fine. But the functionality of gold is very limited. What if the Torah said to make decorations for the ark out of say lead? Would gold have the same panache as it does today? In fact would gold have any value? Lead would be the desired metal. You know what I mean.”

Greenie: “I know. You’re saying backing the money supply with precious metals is as arbitrary as backing with a guarantee by the government.”

Jordan: “Exactly. Think about this. If the developed world decided tomorrow that gold was ugly, what do you think the value would be?”

Greenie: “Value would drop like a rock…or even a lead balloon.”

Jordan: “Gold has little inherent value. Backing currency based on a commodity with little inherent value makes no sense.”

Greenie: “Interesting. So if one looks strictly at what you might call collateral for supporting currency – like a banker looks for collateral for a loan – then gold makes no more sense than the Dutch using tulips for currency in the 17th century. And the backing of the bitcoin this century. I still cannot understand how bitcoins make sense.’

tulips_3Jordan: “You are not alone in not understanding bitcoins. But to some bitcoins are no more bizarre than a government guarantee to back currency. And how do you remember at the historical stuff – tulip craze in the 17th Century?”

Greenie: “Who knows how I remember?. It was 1624 by the way. Back to currency…at least when government prints money and then buys something society usually gets some benefits – schools, roads, infrastructure development. Government might not be the most efficient organization but citizens get something in return.”

Jordan: “Greenie, you should be out there teaching people more about economics. You could have a blog or YouTube show titled ‘Greenie Talks Green.’ Give that some thought. I need to go.”

Greenie: “Jordan. I will think about doing something in the media. You know that is my first love. You might have a deal.”

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