Monthly Archives: August 2021

#422. I’m Stumped. Why Not Get Vaccinated? Looking for Real Reasons.

30 Monday Aug 2021

Posted by in Causes of the Revolution, Societal Issues, Stupid Is as Stupid Does, Uncategorized

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Welcome to the some discussion about the upcoming 5th Revolution in the US, which I’ve titled the “Revenge Revolution.” For more about the Revenge Revolution and the author, Entry #1.  Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether a revolution in the US is possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Entry #400 was the most recent “sense check.” 

I am stumped. What do we, societal we, have to do to get people to at least understand the importance of credible information and the importance of assessing risk?

The topic at hand is Covid.  Covid presents a significant risk to the individual, the individual’s family and a risk to society. Assessing the risk is fairly straightforward math. If you are unvaccinated, the chances of getting infected with the Delta variant, even with some precautions, are high.  Once infected the odds of a serious illness are much lower.  However, the consequences of a serious illness are significant.  In addition, among those infected, 25% or more may suffer long-term health consequences, the severity and scope of which are unknown since this strain of Covid is recent.

For those willing “to play the odds” with Covid, let’s apply the same odds (or even better odds) to a different situation – say air travel. If you’re an anti-vaxxer, would you get on an airplane where one out of every 20, 50 or even 100 flights crashed? And the consequence of the crash was death for everyone on board?

If one of every hundred flights crashed, say in Charlotte, there would be 6-7 crashes per day. I suspect the anti-vaxxers would find this rate too risky and refuse to board aircraft.

Yet, people who insist on not getting vaccinated are assuming the same risk as the 1:100 airline crash.  Why?  Like I said, I’m stumped.  For anti-vaxxers, take a look in geographic areas where a large percentage of the population is unvaccinated.  What’s happening?  Hospitals are at capacity. Funeral homes are beyond capacity and the funeral homes are hiring refrigerated trucks to hold bodies.

The simple solution to reducing risk of Covid is getting vaccinated. Why the resistance?  I’m stumped.  This past week two people I’ve known for some time both indicated they have refused to get vaccinated. Their rationale varied slightly but in essence was “I’m concerned about the risk of this“ or “…the risk of that“ or the vaccine “did not kill the virus“ or “I have credible information from the internet that proves…something or other.”

The “proof“ cited by one of the two was a YouTube video from an MD, well supposedly an MD. The anti-vaxxer posted the link to the “MD” on Facebook. A couple of days later, Facebook noted the information cited was fake and covered the picture of the “MD” and broke the link.  I suppose the anti-vaxxer’s retort to blocking the post was Facebook has been in the pockets of the “deep state.“

As far as risk of the Covid vaccine, yes, there is a risk. All vaccines and all medications carry some risk.  But the risk of the vaccine is slight.  The risk of a severe side effect is less than the risk of a severe side effect from birth control pills.  Wonder how many anti-vaxxers want to ban birth-control pills?

The real issue is the degree of risk of the vaccine versus the degree of risk without the vaccine. Using the airline example, the risk of a serious health issue or death with a Covid infection is at the very best 1:100, while the risk of a health issue stemming from the vaccine is 1:1,000,000+. 

If the difference is so striking and so obvious – for anti-vaxxers 6-7 airline crashes per day in Charlotte versus 1 crash every 4 years for those vaccinated – why are so many people continuing to resist getting the vaccine? Neither of my contacts is stupid. So why the resistance?

As noted in several blog entries beginning with Trump’s nomination, I think Trump supporters have been brainwashed. Trump’s behavior was the antithesis of everything the Republican Party and the religious conservatives stood for. Yet, Trump won the Electoral College vote in 2016 and the vast majority of those who voted for him the first time did so again in 2020. Many Trump voters continue to believe the election was “stolen.“   If you ask a Trumpster “stolen by whom?” or “stolen how?” there is never a specific answer.  Always some reference to some vague, hard-to-define conspiracy.

The brainwashing and the conspiracy logic also applies to Covid. Don’t get a vaccine, because you will…well, we know there’s a conspiracy out there someplace.  Big pharma and Bill Gates, and maybe George Soros, are in cahoots.

The only time reality seems to set in for an anti-vaxxer is when in ICU and on a ventilator. Then the anti-vaxxer finally awakens from the brainwashing by stating, “Gee, maybe I should’ve gotten the vaccine.“

Unfortunately, the brainwashing is likely to continue.  The primary source of the brainwashing, Fox News, continues to promote the alleged stealing of the election, and the alleged conspiracy surrounding the vaccine.  While no conspiracy has ever been defined, “We anti-vaxxers all know Dr. Fauci lies and is a bad guy.”  The Fox solution to Covid?  Don’t get the FDA-approved vaccine but take ivermectin, a drug of no value for treating Covid but used among other applications to deworm animals.

Soon we should be hearing Tucker Carlson and his ilk telling Fox viewers, the forest fires, droughts, hurricanes, heat domes and the other extreme weather incidents are just those 1:100 or 1:1000-year events so don’t worry about climate change.  The claims about climate change are a hoax.  Keep burning that fossil fuel because CO2 is good for the atmosphere.  Don’t trust the scientists.  Trust Fox.”  And throughout these lies, the brainwashed will continue to bow to the king of BS.

What does the brainwashing mean for the Revenge Revolution? The short answer is the Revenge Revolution is still coming.  Originally I thought the Revenge Revolution would be based on economic disparity with the “have-not’s” revolting against the “have’s.”

While there still might be economic disparity between the two sides, the different sides seem to be evolving toward those citizens willing to sacrifice for the common good against those who refuse.  The same disparity in willingness to sacrifice seems to hold when discussing climate change.  The economic disparity results from education. For both the Covid vaccine and climate change, a higher percentage of people with more educated seem to understand the causes of both and the need for society-wide actions to reduce the risks. 

If the democracy is to survive the Revenge Revolution, only one side can win. And it’s not the side of conspiracy theorists and climate-change deniers. More to come.

Comments, questions, suggestions, criticisms welcome.

Interested in more info about climate change, what’s required to electrify a fleet of cars/trucks, what it was like to work day-to-day with Lee Iacocca and an array of other topics? Visit another page of this website, https://usrevolution5.com/jrd-thought-comments/

 

  

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#421. Climate Change: Overview of Steps to Start Solving

21 Saturday Aug 2021

Posted by in Societal Issues, Uncategorized

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Welcome to the some discussion about the upcoming 5th Revolution in the US, which I’ve titled the “Revenge Revolution.” For more about the Revenge Revolution and the author, Entry #1.  Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether a revolution in the US is possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Entry #400 was the most recent “sense check.” 

If you still believe climate change is a hoax, then quit reading this blog entry.  You’ll be pulling out your hair by the end.

In the real world, climate change exists.  In the real world, the consequences of not addressing climate change are catastrophic.  If society does not begin taking major steps immediately to reduce CO2 emissions, the primary contributor to the earth’s warming, there is a distinct possibility of a huge die-off in the earth’s population in the next 100-150 years. 

Just for reference, the current concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere (parts per million) is the highest since 3-5 million years ago, long before the evolution of modern man.  The high concentration has changed the curve of the earth’s natural warming and cooling cycle.  Based on historical patterns, the earth should be in the very early stages of a cooling cycle.  Instead, the earth’s temperature continues to increase.

No matter what we do, the earth’s temperature is likely to rise for another 50-75 years.  During that period the US and virtually every other country will experience more intense heat domes, rising oceans, more intense rainstorms, more flooding, more droughts, more fires and a severe strain on the agricultural sector’s ability to grow and harvest crops consistently. 

In addition, because of the shift in the jet stream caused by warmer temperatures in the Artic, areas of the southern US could experience heretofore rare severe winter cold snaps.  This all sounds like fun, huh?

How do we begin slowing the increase in earth’s temperature and eventually get earth back to the normal cycle of temperature variation?  The simple answer?  US society needs to have the will and commitment to fix the problem we helped cause.

Interestingly and fortunately, the technology exists today that can help make a major leap toward slowing the increase in temperature.  Also, technology is in development that can slow the increase even more.

If we have the technology, then why doesn’t the US just implement it?  What’s the issue when everyone would benefit?

Welcome to a country where logic and commitment to the common good seem to have vanished.  There is no better example of vanished commitment than willingness to be vaccinated for Covid.  A substantial portion of the US population refuses to get vaccinated even though the unvaccinated are at very high risk of being infected. 

The anti-vax groups offers a range of unsubstantiated medical claims and the usual array of conspiracy theories, including an effort by “government” to bend the will of the people, which will lead to more government takeovers, of course.

The extent of the selfishness of this group is hard to overstate.  The group insists a requirement to be vaccinated would impinge on their “freedom.” Yet, when the anti-vaxxers become infected with Covid, the group demands immediate medical attention.  I guess the group has forgotten their “freedoms” and the organized medical community resulted from actions taken by that bad old federal government.   

In addition to the anti-vaxxers, there are many companies, especially in the fossil-fuel industry, that refuse to accept any responsibility for global warming.  While we might not have known in 1900 how much drilling (methane release), then burning fossil fuels (CO2) could contribute to global warming, we have known about the linkage and the potential problem for at least 50 years.      

Another category of deniers sits in Congress, mainly from Republican-dominated states, and in particular from states with fossil-fuel resources.  One senator from such a state stated that producing oil and gas was not the contributor to global warming.  The real problem was burning the oil and gas.  OK, there are some products that use oil and/or as a feed stock.  However, a substantial portion is burned and creates CO2.  If the companies continue producing oil and gas at the current rate, unsold inventory will fill storage capacity quickly.  Then what, senator?

Without getting into a long dissertation, here’s a list of actions that could begin meaningful progress toward mitigating the effects of climate change.  The US needs to step up before we start negotiating with other countries to do the same.  More discussion about the proposed steps in coming entries. (The recommendations are excerpts from a paper I wrote as part of a group of MIT alumni working on practical solutions to climate change.)

  • Because the US is so polarized politically, a “9/11” or “Pearl Harbor” moment beyond the UN Report and record heat seems necessary to gain broad public support for addressing climate change and encouraging Congress to pass necessary climate legislation
  • Federal mandates requiring 100% electric usage in transportation, major industries, commercial building /homes, agriculture by a certain date are likely the only solution to ensure compliance across key sectors.  More in coming entries why a “free-market” solution likely will not work in time.
  • Even with a “Pearl Harbor” moment and mandates for electric, widespread education of the public will be necessary
  • The president or Congress should activate the Defense Production Act of 1950 to ensure electrified products are produced in quantity adequate to meet mandates
  • Federal government financial support for infrastructure and cost reduction programs will be required in all sectors, including provisions for “buy-back” of banned products
  • Renewable sources of electricity – solar, wind, hydro – likely will be inadequate to meet substantially higher base-load demand.  Nuclear power will be required.  Fusion is superior but commercial fusion decades away.
  • Accelerating timeline for widespread hydrogen availability will help achieve zero-emissions in aircraft, long-haul trucking as long as hydrogen not derived from fossil fuel
  • Students, grammar school thru college, and those under age 30 in 2021 can be a major influence on changing public attitudes and spurring legislation      

Comments, questions, suggestions, criticisms welcome.

Interested in more info about climate change, what’s required to electrify a fleet of cars/trucks, what it was like to work day-to-day with Lee Iacocca and an array of other topics? Visit another page of this website, https://usrevolution5.com/jrd-thought-comments/

 

  

#420. It’s My Right to Get Covid.

02 Monday Aug 2021

Posted by in Uncategorized

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Welcome to the some discussion about the upcoming 5th Revolution in the US, which I’ve titled the “Revenge Revolution.” For more about the Revenge Revolution and the author, Entry #1.  Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether a revolution in the US is possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Entry #400 was the most recent “sense check.” 

ENTRY #420: “Don’t tell me to get vaccinated you communist. It’s my right to get Covid. And it’s my right to make you pay for all of my medical bills.

Besides, getting Covid would be fun. Just think about what’ll happen?  I hope I’m one of the lucky ones with Covid who gets to go to the hospital. And if I’m real lucky, I’ll get a spot in ICU.

Think of all the staff that’ll be at my service in ICU.  The attention I’ll get from the staff puts to shame anything the Ritz-Carlton has to offer.  

Plus, in ICU I’ll get to take a bed that could have been occupied by someone who claimed to have an emergency. You know, someone pretending to have had a heart attack, or a stroke, or claiming to have been in a severe auto accident. I’m important so I deserve the bed more than any one of ‘those people.’

When I get out, what I’ll do is declare bankruptcy and stiff the hospital and all future patients for the bill.  If I stay in ICU long enough the hospital bill could be $1 million.  How many people do you know who have stiffed the hospital for a million bucks or more? 

After I’m out, then maybe I’ll be lucky and turn into one of those, uh, I think they’re called ‘long-haulers.’  Someone who has symptoms for a long time. The exciting part of being a long-hauler is no one knows what symptoms will occur, when they’ll occur, and for how long.  Tell me that isn’t exciting.

If I don’t get out, then I’ll be part of the group that seems to get all the media attention.  You know, the people who supposedly died from Covid. But unlike many of the people on the list, my death will be real. No fake news about me.

See why I’m excited? See why I refuse to wear a mask and why I refuse to get vaccinated? If I did either one, I might miss out on an exciting adventure.  People who get vaccinated are such dullards.”

——————–

OK, why the satire?  A few days ago, an anti-vaxer had the audacity to claim that the person asking someone to do something for the common good – i.e., getting vaccinated – was being selfish.  Excuse me anti-vaxer, but asking someone to doing something for the common good is not being selfish. 

Refusing to do something for the common good – maybe not littering, supporting people who are in true need, not being rude and a list of other reasonable behaviors – is being selfish.  But selfish people think the world revolves around them.    

So grow up anti-vaxer.  Put on your big-boy pants and quit acting like some whiny 2-year-old.