• Home
  • Booklets/Grouped Entries
  • Tech Tsunami
  • List of Entries to Date
  • About the Author

usrevolution5

~ USA Headed for a 5th Revolution! Why?

usrevolution5

Monthly Archives: July 2018

#301 Republicans: Ask Yourself These Questions about Why You Continue to Support Trump

22 Sunday Jul 2018

Posted by Jordan Abel in Sense Check, Societal Issues

≈ 16 Comments

Readers: this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution and author, Entry #1.  Most entries are formatted as conversations. Characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations.

Occasionally I break from the normal formatting and do a “sense check.”  Auditing one’s own work is problematic but I try to be objective.  Your thoughts are welcomed and appreciated.  Thanks for your time and interest…and comments, please.

During the Independence Day weekend, I tried to assess in Entry #300 whether a 5th US revolution was likely sometime in the next few years.  While one should always be careful about claiming objective analysis of one’s own writing, I concluded “Yes, a revolution is likely.”

Well, this past two weeks seemed to add an exclamation point or two to that conclusion.  Over the years in this blog I’ve tried to avoid commenting on daily or weekly events.  Many such events are merely “noise” over the long-term…and there are many talking heads in the various media offering their analysis.

Jaw Drop

However, Trump’s behavior recently has been jaw-droppingly bizarre, even by Trump standards.  Consider his behavior at the NATO meeting when he trashed the US’ most loyal allies.  The apparent effort to dismantle NATO was a pure gift to Putin.  The NATO alliance was established by the US post WWII as a counter to the Soviet Union’s efforts to invade other European countries.  The history of and reason for NATO seem to be unknown to Trump.

One can argue what percent of GDP NATO countries should spend on defense.  The target for countries is 2.0% of GDP and participating countries have been moving toward the 2.0% target.  Rather than complimenting these efforts and then taking credit for their increased spending, Trump berated them by offhandedly claiming the countries should increase spending to be more in line with the US, or 4.0% of GDP.

swastika

Legitimate arguments have two sides.  The other side of demanding more spending on defense is the reminder than the US and western European allies fought a very heavily armed Germany in WWI and WWII.  Be careful about encouraging countries to build a very strong defense system when one or more could become your adversary.  Remember, it’s better to have a potential adversary inside the tent pissing out than outside ppissing in.

Following the NATO meeting Trump visited England and managed to humiliate publicly Prime Minister May.  And for what gain?  The US has no skin in the Brexit game.  Regardless of the deal Britain negotiates with the European Union, the US can continue to trade with both.  So why trash the Prime Minister?   Why be rude to THE most reliable European ally?  What was there to gain?

Puppet

The only rationale seems to be Trump wanted to gain approval from Putin.  But why court Putin?  Putin doesn’t play golf, at least as far as we know.   Putin doesn’t appear to be a particularly affable guy.  I mean would you really want to sit down and have a beer and cigar with the guy?  So why try to gain his approval?  Why would you want to be Putin’s puppet?

Let’s start by following the money.  Based on what I know about his finances, Trump seems to be in considerable debt to Putin’s cronies (and maybe Putin) — probably hundreds of millions of dollars.  With all that debt Trump seems more worried about protecting his own skin that protecting the welfare of the United States.  Think about taking a loan from the Russians as taking a loan from the gangster-cartoon-clip-art-540pxmafia.  The Russians, like the mafia, play serious hardball when it comes to collecting debts.  Trump and Manafort seem to be aware of the dirt bath they might get if they don’t cooperate with the Russians.

If it’s not the money, then Trump must be so mentally unhinged that he belongs on the funny farm.  Likely the cause is both the money and unstable mentally but let’s stick with the money.

Which brings the discussion back to a like 5th US revolution – the Revenge Revolution.  While as of this writing Trump’s approval ratings among Republicans remains remarkably high, the very high ratings might be best viewed like a bubble in the stock market or housing market.  The bubbles seem to last well beyond what is logical, then suddenly burst and all the air gets sucked out.

Bubble Bursting

What might precipitate the Trump support-bubble bursting?  When the scope of the corruption begins to touch those closest to Trump – immediate family.  What happens to support when Robert Muller goes before the grand jury and gets indictments for Junior, Ivanka and Jared Kushner?  Will Republicans begin to wake up to the extent of the corruption?

What about the public testimony from the US translator during discussions with Putin in Helsinki.  What about the transcript the Russians release of the meeting?  Republicans, surely you’re not so naïve to believe the Russians didn’t record the meeting.

Will Republicans begin to realize Trump’s relationship with Putin could qualify as treason?  Yes, despite the White House flip-flops and wildly funny explanations, the Russians are continuing to try influencing elections in the US.  Such efforts could rightfully be considered an attack on the US and therefore any effort to aid and abet the enemy (Russia) would be considered treasonous.

mirror-clipart_jpg

Republicans go look in the mirror and ask yourself, “Why would I support a president whose behavior is not in the best interests of the United States?”  “Why would I support a president who shows more support for Russia than our closest allies?”

OK, so you don’t like the French…or even the Germans.  And yes, English food is a bit bland.  But why should…and no it wasn’t shouldn’t…you support a president who states publicly his distrust for the US intelligence agencies?

Why support a president who refused to allow anyone to sit in on the meeting with Putin in Helsinki?  Why support a president who refuses to have someone transcribe dialogue at the meeting?   Who refuses (as of this date) to share any information from the meeting with the head of the intelligence agencies or the military?  Republicans – doesn’t this behavior give you reason to pause and ask “What is going on here?”

Putin

Why would a president want to keep secret dialogue with an arch enemy?  Would you still be as supportive if such behavior had been exhibited by president Obama or if Hillary Clinton were president?  I’ll just bet you might not be as silent and sanguine.

If you’re a Republican, how can you justify and support Trump’s behavior as president?  Your rationale is not only flimsy, but filled with holes.  Have you no shame?

drone-manWhile you might ignore all the shenanigans and secrecy with the Russians, claiming the “Trump haters” just don’t understand and are overreacting as usual, I’ll bet you begin to pause when Trump’s so-called “economic policies” hit your pocketbook hard.  Without getting into a wonkish discussion about economics, several of Trump’s so-called economic policies – tariffs, even on countries even where we have a trade surplus, massive tax cuts for business and the wealthy, promoting a weak dollar, promoting low interest rates and a couple of others – are at cross purposes.  First and maybe most important is the tariffs will raise prices and reduce employment – and your pocketbook will be affected.

If Trump wants to make the US more competitive in specific industries, which everyone supports, then two critical items are necessary – increased investment in those industries and a better education for more people.  Trump’s economic polices do neither.

Woman ScornedThere’s more to discuss but enough for now.  The final thought of this “sense check” entry.  When all the lower-income Trump supporters finally realize they’ve been had, we will see the tipping point for the revolution. Remember, hell hath no fury like a (former Trump supporter) scorned.  So Republicans, be prepared and make sure to enjoy the ride to the Revenge Revolution.

Advertisement

#300 Sense Check: Is a 5th US Revolution Likely? (Yes)

08 Sunday Jul 2018

Posted by Jordan Abel in Sense Check

≈ 17 Comments

Readers: this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution and author, Entry #1.  Most entries are formatted as conversations. Characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations.

Occasionally I break from the normal formatting and do a sense check.  Auditing one’s own work is problematic but I try to be objective.  Your thoughts are welcomed and appreciated,  Thanks for your time and interest…and comments, please.

Is a 5th revolution in the US likely after the year 2020?  The short answer is “yes.”

WhySince today is part of a long weekend celebrating July 4 and the nation’s declaration of independence, what better time to step back and assess the premise of this blog.  I’ve been writing the blog for about five (5) years with a few months between starting writing and publishing the initial entry.  What has surprised me the most the past five years is not that a revolution seems likely…but the path to the 5th revolution.

Obama PicFive years ago (2013), Barack Obama was in the second term of this presidency. Some key points of that time: (i) the economy was slowly but steadily recovering from the Great Recession of 2008; (ii) even with the economic recovery median household income was flat (not unexpected given the depth of the recession); (iii) the Affordable Care Act, aka Obamacare, was just beginning to be fully implemented; (iv) Republicans were making every effort to thwart legislation of nearly any action proposed by president Obama.  Recall Mitch McConnell declared about two years into Obama’s term that his job and the job of Republicans in Congress McConnellwas to make Obama a one-term president.  In addition to attempting to thwart any legislative action, Republicans were holding what became endless hearings on Benghazi.  The pattern of these type hearings continued throughout Obama’s presidency.  None of the hearings produced any substantive evidence of intentional wrongdoing.

In the media, cable was overtaking the networks as a primary source of news.  Cable outlets are not subject to the same FCC restrictions as over-the-air networks.  As a result, news on some cable channels became more of an ongoing editorial with less objective reporting of events.  Fox News, although claiming to be fair and balanced, was the most extreme among the cable news outlets about editorializing events.  At the time Fox had the most overall viewers among cable news channels.  Since 2013 the right-leaning Fox has shifted farther right with even more frequent wildly exaggerated, unsubstantiated claims couched as news.  Over the same period, CNN has moved more left.  While I’m certain Fox News watchers would disagree, MSNBC seems to have carved out a middle, if somewhat left-leaning, position, with more objective reporting.

(As a sidebar, I find intriguing the education level of “top-of-the-heap” talking heads of the various media outlets.  The kings of the hard right, Hannady and Limbaugh, do not have college degrees.  Limbaugh attended college for one year; Hannady attended three colleges over three years.  Rachael Maddow, MSNBC, has an undergraduate degree from Stanford University and doctorate from Oxford, where she was a Rhodes Scholar.  Chris Hayes, MSNBC, has an undergraduate degree from Brown University and had three (3) fellowships, including one at Harvard.  Exactly what this means, I don’t know but seems worth exploring more.)           

Math ClassAs noted in Entry #1 of this blog, the idea of a 5th revolution in the US was based on math.  Looking back at US history, there seemed to be a revolution about every 50 years.  #1 was the “American Revolution.”  While the American Revolution started in 1776, the revolution did not end until the War of 1812.  #2 revolution was the Civil War, which began in 1861.  #3 revolution was about 1910-1915 with a major societal upheaval associated with rapid industrialization and mass migration – both domestic migration north to factories and the influx of immigrants. #4 revolution was the cultural revolution of the late 1960’s, early 1970’s.  So, given this pattern, I added 50 years to 1970 and, voila, time for another revolution around 2020.

What was not apparent to me five years ago was the catalyst for the revolution.  When Obama was president, many whites were frustrated and angry.  However, the president himself was calm…so calm at times he was called “No drama Obama.”

trump-scowlThe unexpected catalyst for the 5th revolution, at least what seems to be so far, was the unexpected and unlikely 2016 Republican presidential nominee – Donald Trump.  Trump ran a very unconventional campaign, capitalizing on what seems to be his major strength – being a highly effective bully.  But a bully not in the tradition of the presidency, which is often referred to as having a “bully pulpit,” but a bully that one might have experienced in say grammar school or middle school.

ScreamDuring the campaign for the Republican nomination Trump was relentless in taunting fellow Republican candidates.  After earning the nomination, he was relentless in taunting the Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton.  While in “normal times” one would expect such school-yard tactics to result in a resounding defeat,” Trump won the Electoral College vote even though losing the popular vote by more than three (3) million votes.

As president, Trump has continued to taunt, whether members of his cabinet, members of Congress (including Republicans) and even such allies as Canada, England, Germany and Japan.   The taunting, combined with his apparent disdain for any type of preparedness for any meeting or issue, seems to have great appeal to a hard-core base of white, less educated, lower-income voters.  Trump supporters also include a group of middle-income, mostly white voters, especially Christian conservatives.  While Trump maintains a very high approval rating among Republicans, my belief is the hard-core base is the most likely to start the 5th revolution, the Revenge Revolution.

RevoltWhy expect the hard-core right to revolt?  Aren’t they Trump’s biggest supporters?  Yes, but the hard right will be the most negatively affected by Trump’s policies.  Believe what you will but the coal industry is never coming back.  Use of other fossil fuels is going to drop sharply.  Two of Trump’s favorite industries – steel and aluminum – are highly automated and don’t need many more workers to increase output.

An example of the effect of automation is an industry I know well, the automotive industry.  Compared to when I joined General Motors many years ago, labor content per car/truck has dropped like a rock.  If you want to see the effect of automation, look beyond final assembly, which admittedly has far fewer workers.  Look at labor content in the areas of machining, welding and painting.  All high-paid skilled workers replaced by machines.  The machines don’t take breaks, don’t go on vacation and don’t require health benefits.  Plus the quality using these machines is better.

TractorThe other group likely to revolt is farmers, who also were big Trump supporters.  Exports have become a huge money-maker for family and corporate farms.  Retaliatory tariffs on farm products by China and other nations will decrease demand for soybeans, corn and wheat.  The US produces far more foodstuff than it can possibly consume.  A decrease in farm production translates into a decrease in farm income.

Yes, the hard-core right will be the hardest hit.  But they’re so loyal to Trump…they’re almost fanatical in their support.  Surely they won’t abandon him…will they?  There’s an old saying that might seem sexist but really applies to both genders, “Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned.”

SurpriseOne day in the next five years or so, the hard-core Trumpsters will wake up and realize not only are the promised jobs not coming back but Trump and Congressional Republicans are on a determined path to cut Social Security and Medicare.  Why?  Because the Federal deficit is too high.  Why is the deficit too high?  Because the Trump tax cuts benefitted the rich and the promised “trickle-down” effect never occurred.  Raising taxes on the rich is out of the question, of course, so these “entitlement” programs must be cut.

The idea that tax cuts for the rich somehow stimulate demand the benefits trickle down to the poor has never been demonstrated.  There is no credible empirical evidence supporting the contention.  George H.W. Bush was correct in calling the trickle-down voodoo-2015958theory “voodoo economics.”  Trump’s tax cuts were pure voodoo economics.

So when the hard-core Trumpsters finally awaken and realize they’ve been had by Trump and elected Republicans, what do they do?  They revolt.  How do they revolt?

Exaggerating the truth has a way of coming back to haunt you.  For the last 3-4 decades, Republicans and the NRA have been touting a clearly distorted interpretation of the 2nd Amendment, especially the right to own an assault rifle or high-caliber weapon used only in the military.  In addition, the hyperbole about a “deep state” has encouraged many on the hard-core right to buy additional firearms and stock additional ammunition.  And what’s the consequence?

SoldierAs noted in the early entries to this blog, the scorned (hard right Trumpsters) begin to exact revenge on the more affluent.  How widespread is such an armed revolt?  Hard to predict.  But what I do know is there are not enough police and not enough military personnel to stop geographically dispersed guerilla raids on single homes and/or neighborhoods, especially if invaders are armed with AR15’s and the like.

Well, now you have the update about the premise of the blog — is a 5th revolution in the US likely?  Not a pretty picture but, unfortunately, a 5th US revolution seems more likely every day that Trump is in office.  Further, the disruption caused by Trump will take years to repair.  Even if Trump were removed from office tomorrow, the country might not avoid the revolution.  And, oh by the way Mrs. Lincoln, make sure to enjoy the play.

Subscribe

  • Entries (RSS)
  • Comments (RSS)

Archives

  • January 2023
  • December 2022
  • November 2022
  • October 2022
  • September 2022
  • August 2022
  • July 2022
  • June 2022
  • May 2022
  • April 2022
  • March 2022
  • February 2022
  • January 2022
  • December 2021
  • November 2021
  • October 2021
  • September 2021
  • August 2021
  • July 2021
  • June 2021
  • May 2021
  • April 2021
  • March 2021
  • February 2021
  • January 2021
  • December 2020
  • November 2020
  • October 2020
  • September 2020
  • August 2020
  • July 2020
  • June 2020
  • May 2020
  • April 2020
  • March 2020
  • February 2020
  • January 2020
  • December 2019
  • November 2019
  • October 2019
  • September 2019
  • August 2019
  • July 2019
  • June 2019
  • May 2019
  • April 2019
  • March 2019
  • February 2019
  • January 2019
  • December 2018
  • November 2018
  • October 2018
  • September 2018
  • August 2018
  • July 2018
  • June 2018
  • May 2018
  • April 2018
  • March 2018
  • February 2018
  • January 2018
  • December 2017
  • November 2017
  • October 2017
  • September 2017
  • August 2017
  • July 2017
  • June 2017
  • May 2017
  • April 2017
  • March 2017
  • February 2017
  • January 2017
  • December 2016
  • November 2016
  • October 2016
  • September 2016
  • August 2016
  • July 2016
  • June 2016
  • May 2016
  • April 2016
  • March 2016
  • February 2016
  • January 2016
  • December 2015
  • November 2015
  • October 2015
  • September 2015
  • August 2015
  • July 2015
  • June 2015
  • May 2015
  • April 2015
  • March 2015
  • February 2015
  • January 2015
  • December 2014
  • November 2014
  • October 2014
  • September 2014
  • August 2014
  • July 2014
  • June 2014
  • May 2014
  • April 2014
  • March 2014
  • February 2014
  • January 2014
  • December 2013

Categories

  • Affordable Solutions
  • Back Asswards Thinking
  • Background
  • Background Stupid Is as Stupid Does
  • Benefits of Revolution
  • Causes of the Revolution
  • Common Sense Policies
  • Corporate Policy
  • Definitions
  • Diversions
  • Economics
  • Education Issues
  • Federal Budget
  • General Motors
  • Gov't Policy
  • Infrastructure & Fixed Fuel Prices
  • Innovative Thinking: Ideas and Products
  • Lessons of Revolution
  • Personal Stories
  • Possible Solutions
  • Post Trump Presidency
  • Rebranding Black Community
  • Sense Check
  • Societal Issues
  • Stupid Is as Stupid Does
  • Tech Tsunami
  • Uncategorized

Meta

  • Register
  • Log in

Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com.

Privacy & Cookies: This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this website, you agree to their use.
To find out more, including how to control cookies, see here: Cookie Policy
  • Follow Following
    • usrevolution5
    • Join 29 other followers
    • Already have a WordPress.com account? Log in now.
    • usrevolution5
    • Customize
    • Follow Following
    • Sign up
    • Log in
    • Report this content
    • View site in Reader
    • Manage subscriptions
    • Collapse this bar
 

Loading Comments...