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~ USA Headed for a 5th Revolution! Why?

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Category Archives: Sense Check

#430. Sense Check. When Will the 5th US Revolution Escalate?

27 Saturday Nov 2021

Posted by Jordan Abel in Sense Check, Uncategorized

≈ 8 Comments

Is a Revenge Revolution still likely?  The fall 2013 was the first entry in this blog. About every six or so months thereafter I’ve written a “sense check“ whether a 5th US revolution was possible, or just a statistical aberration.

One needs to be careful about believing everything one writes is somehow automatically true. Doing so might make one feel better, but a peer review and some objective measures are good guardrails.

The last sense-check was Entry #400, published January 1, 2021. The entry preceded the attack on the US Capitol January 6 and preceded numerous (and on-going) attempts by Trump to overturn the results of the presidential election. From a historical perspective, I think the attack on the Capitol will mark the beginning of the 5th US revolution, the Revenge Revolution.

While Trump has continued to make noise, file frivolous lawsuits, and bilk supporters out of hard-earned cash by claiming he’s going to run again (fat chance),  there have been other events recently that suggest the 5th US revolution is accelerating rather than slowing down as one might expect under a new, more rational Biden administration.

For example, in 2021 the Supreme Court seems to have decided to let the highly conservative Fifth Circuit do its dirty work by allowing the seemingly unconstitutional restrictive abortion law in Texas stand, thereby effectively overturning Roe v. Wade.

And yes, SCOTUS has decided that it supports those who question why the Federal government should have jurisdiction over states to protect its citizens against the pandemic.  Apparently the majority of SCOTUS thinks the current governors of such states as Florida and Texas are much more qualified than the world-class immunologist and virologist at CDC to make medical decisions.  Like SCOTUS, surely everyone knows that the Florida and Texas governors are the smartest people on the planet.

What may intensify the 5th Revolution, however, is the Kyle Rittenhouse verdict in Kenosha, Wisconsin. Aside from a clearly biased judge, the verdict now allows someone to carry an assault weapon to an event, initiate trouble, kill people, and then claim he (or she) was being threatened by the people that he intimidated with the assault weapon.  As demonstrated in Kenosha, the killer in that situation can walk away without penalty.

Unfortunately, Republicans and the talking heads on Fox apparently are too stupid to understand the consequences of the Rittenhouse verdict. To demonstrate even more of their stupidity, Senators Cruz of Texas and Representative Matt Gaetz of Florida (under FBI investigation for sex trafficking) offered Rittenhouse an internship in their respective offices.  Doubtless Rittenhouse is as qualified for the position as Cruz and Gaetz are for Congress.

An equally large contributor to the 5th Revolution, although the effect will not be apparent until after the November 2022 mid-term election, is the effect of voter suppression, resulting from changes in state law and extensive gerrymandering. Once the Democrats and Independent voters realize how worthless their votes have become, they likely will become incensed.  But then it will be too late to change any outcome of the election.

How have Republicans been able to run roughshod over voting rights?  Again the US citizenry can thank Chief Justice John Roberts and, to a degree, Mitch McConnell for packing the Supreme Court with lackeys. Roberts led the charge to change the law when he wrote the majority opinion gutting the Voting Rights Act. 

Roberts’ method was subtle.  Rather than continuing to force proposed changes to voting rights in certain southern states to be approved by the Federal government before taking affect, Roberts allowed the states to make a law as restrictive as they wanted without Federal review.  Then, after the law took effect, aggrieved parties would need to sue and prove damages. 

While the voting-rights cases were slowly winding tgheir way through the courts, the restrictive laws would remain in effect and any elections would proceed.  Of course, if the restrictive laws were ever overturned, the plaintiffs had no method to rectify other laws implemented after the rigged elections. 

How will Roberts new “Rules of Order” for elections play out in 2022?  Republicans in such states North Carolina can gerrymander to their hearts content. North Carolina’s about evenly split between Democrats and Republicans. With recent changes to the redistricting maps, 10 of the 14 House seats are so gerrymandered as to guarantee a Republican victory.  Why wouldn’t anyone think that it’s fair for a state split about evenly between Republicans and Democrats, with Democrats holding a slight edge, to have 70% of the Federal House members guaranteed Republican?

One other event that is a positive for justice but may accelerate the Revenge Revolution is verdict in the Ahmaud Arbery case in Brunswick, GA.  Three men were convicted of murdering Mr. Arbery, who was unarmed and posed no threat.  The unfortunate aspect of the investigation is nothing was done to investigate the murder until a video was released, likely accidentally, of the three men chasing Mr. Arbery and murdering him.  Only after a public outcry was an investigation started.

The defense in the Arbery case used a defense similar to Rittenhouse.  It is OK to kill someone else, even if they are unarmed and pose no real threat.  Just claim the other person poses a threat.  The far right loves this logic and many Republicans seem to support or at least condone it.  Few, if any top Republicans commented publicly about the Arbery verdict, which was announced the day before Thanksgiving.  Must have been Republicans were more concerned about cooking the Thanksgiving turkey.    

When the Revenge Revolution ratchets up remains a question. How does anyone predict the point when a bubbling revolution boils over?   

What does seem almost assured, however, is when it boils over, the revolution will include a significant use of firearms and the killings of numerous higher-profile people. I wish the conclusion of the “sense check” were less onerous but I need to be honest about my assessment.  Let’s hope I’m wrong.

Other Topics. Interested in more info about climate change, what’s required to electrify a fleet of cars/trucks, what it was like to work day-to-day with Lee Iacocca and an array of other topics? Visit another page of this website, https://usrevolution5.com/jrd-thought-comments/

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#400 Sense Check. 5th US Revolution Still Possible?

01 Friday Jan 2021

Posted by Jordan Abel in Post Trump Presidency, Sense Check, Societal Issues, Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Readers: some of the dialogue in this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Entries addressing events in the the future assume there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.

Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether in the next few years, a revolution in the US is still possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  This entry is a sense check.  

Some of the entries are part of a series.  Several series are available as easy-to-read booklets for download:

  • Coming technology tsunami and the implications for the US, Tech Tsunami Booklet with Supplement
  • Trump Supporters Brainwashed? A series discussing why Republics have abandoned basic principals, Are Trump Republicans Brainwashed 2020Q1  Related article published 10/07/20.  Op-Ed piece in NYT about how people bend their thinking to justify beliefs.  Example is Fox News Information about Covid-19, 20 10 07 Fox News Still in Coronavirus Bubble aka Brainwashed
  • Who took out the Donald?  Who/what groups are most likely to “take out” Trump? The booklet was written early in the Trump administration but still worth a read. Who Took Out the Donald Entries with Update
  • Revenge Revolution — description of what form the revolution might take, 20 01 07 Start of Revolution
  • Working with Lee Iacocca after he left Chrysler, 2019Q3 Iacocca Personal Observations. 
  • GM EV1 — behind-the-scenes events affecting development and introduction of the GM EV1, the first modern electric vehicle. 2020Q1 GM EV-1 Story Behind the Story Booklet

Beginning #378 the entries began focusing on a post-Trump administration and a post-Coronavirus world.  We’re headed to a post-Trump world and post-COVID world, even if a ways away.  Comments and suggestions welcome.

ENTRY #400: SENSE CHECK. The first entry in this blog was the fall 2013, just over seven years ago. The theme of the blog evolved 9-10 years ago when I began drafting a thesis for an unfinished degree at the University of Michigan.  The degree was a masters of liberal studies in American culture.

I started the degree program a few years after we relocated to Michigan. The degree courses were interesting and unlike any I’d taken in undergrad or graduate school. One of the benefits of the program was becoming much better at the TV show “Jeopardy.”

I finished the thesis and submitted to U of M.  Then learned I was a couple of courses short.  After a number of years in Michigan, we had moved to California, then to Charlotte.  I hadn’t been enrolled for some time but thought the coursework was completed. Although U of M indicated the two courses could be taken on line, I decided enough formal education.

However, I didn’t put the thesis on the shelf.  When researching material for the thesis, I “discovered” the US seemed to experience a revolution about every 50 years. I assume like many discoveries, this “discovery” was quite by accident.

The working title of the thesis was “The American Revolution.”  “The American Revolution” didn’t refer to the traditional American Revolution but a tagline from an old Chevrolet commercial.  Much of the content of the thesis focused on how to rebuild US manufacturing (yes, long before the Donald made such a claim), with particular emphasis on how Southeast Michigan could leverage knowledge of the auto industry to become a worldwide center for other products.  One example was leveraging skills in product design and electromechanical engineering to develop computer-aided prosthetics, which thankfully are now coming to market.

Because of the title, I wondered how many revolutions had America experienced.  Obviously, the American Revolution and the Civil War, but were there others?  As an early Baby Boomer, I considered the changes in music, hairstyles, attitudes toward sex, etc. in the late 1960s, early 1970s as a “cultural revolution.”  In addition to cultural change, that period included domestic violence with the assassinations of JFK, RFK and MLK as well as major civil disruptions in Newark, Detroit and Los Angeles.

After a bit more analysis, I decided there have been four (4) revolutions so far in US history with each occurring roughly every 50 years.  Since the mid-point of the last revolution was about 1970, if the 50-year cycle was correct, then the fifth US revolution would be sometime after 2020. (More information about the four revolutions and how the timing was calculated in Entry #1.)

Well, here we are just having finished 2020.  Time to have a sense check and ask, “Is a 5th US revolution likely?” Unless you’ve been in a cave or on Mars the last few years, I think most people would say “Yes, a revolution of some type seems likely.”

The country seems as divided emotionally and politically as any time since the years leading up to the Civil War.  The Donald and the Trump Administration with all the craziness were contributors to this split.  But the divide in the country started long before Trump. 

OK, Trump was outlandish, arrogant, stupid, childlike and a host of other psychological “isms.”  Despite the behavior, Trump was not the first to cause the split.  There’s always been some split but the movement toward a chasm started with Ronald Reagan. 

Reagan kept proclaiming, even after becoming president that “government is the problem, not the solution.”  Reagan would also promote private industry as the solution.  While government is clearly not the solution to every problem, private Industry is not the solution to many problems either.

How many private companies would be willing to develop a product or build a system for which there was no known market?  The answer is zero, nada, none.  So, then how did railroads, the highway system, air travel, ground and satellite communications systems and the internet get funded?  Mmm, must have been that incompetent government. There is not a single company that would risk the capital necessary for the development and introduction of these larger scale programs.

At the same time, at some point the government needs to get out of the business it helped develop and let the private sector take over.  While one can debate the timing, the government has been diligent about allowing, even encouraging, private industry to take over these industries.

One of Reagan’s strength was communications – after all he was an actor.  Reagan should be given an Academy Award for convincing so many Republicans he was a fiscal conservative. In truth Reagan was a spendthrift whose administration ran up huge federal budget deficits. By the end of Reagan’s term in office, federal debt as a percentage of GDP had increased about the same relative amount as under FDR’s New Deal program in the 1930s.  (There are number of entries in this blog with more charts and explanations supporting the contention that Reagan started the split in attitudes among the populace.)

Another factor helping split the country was the introduction of cable news, then the internet.  Cable news and the internet, combined with a decline in the circulation of daily newspapers, resulted in the proliferation of alleged credible news sources, with emphasis on “alleged.”  Unlike old-line mainstream network TV channels and mainstream newspapers, the cable and so-called internet news outlets were not subject to the same FCC standards. 

The lack of oversight has allowed supposed news outlets to either radically distort the truth or simply create stories with no basis whatsoever in fact.  Without another source of information – daily newspaper, e.g. – many believe the cable channel or social media.  Worse still is many people cannot seem to separate commentary from the talking heads on these channels and the real news.  Further, some high-profile cable channels, notably Fox, until recently were openly distorting the news to support a certain political position and ignoring the truth.  For most of the last four years Fox should have been labeled “Trump TV.”

Back to the sense check about the possibility of a 5th US revolution.  If the past pattern holds true and there is a revolution in the next few years, then what form of revolution is going to take? Cultural? Shooting? A bit of both?

Almost certainly there’s going to be a cultural revolution.  Just as the Baby Boomers created the cultural revolution in late 60s, early 70s the now teens and twenty-somethings – Generation Z — are going to force cultural changes.

What the Vietnam War was for the Baby Boomers, climate change is for Gen Z. And unlike the Baby Boomers, where jobs were relatively plentiful, most everyone in Gen Z faces a bleak job market, even for many who are college educated.

Gen Zers feel trapped economically and trapped by an ever bleaker outlook for the environment. And some in Gen Z point the finger at Baby Boomers for making these problems worse.

The coffee shop I visit most every morning is staffed with many Gen Zers.  One young lady, an excellent college student, said the other day when we chatted about solving social problems, “We’ve got to get rid of these old politicians. They’re too rigid and set in their ways.”

If you are a Baby Boomer, or even a bit older, watch out. The light at the end of the tunnel is a Gen Z freight train that is picking up speed.

The Gen Zers are not alone.  High-school grads, whether recent or older are frustrated as well.  Where do they find employment in this new world?

Covid-19 demonstrated that many critical societal jobs are being filled by less-educated, lower-paid workers. All of a sudden, the US seemed to depend on those previously invisible grocery-store clerks, hospital aides, delivery-truck drivers, transit staff, etc.  But what else can these workers do?

Covid-19 also demonstrated how vulnerable other entry-level jobs were, especially in restaurants, hotels, retail stores and office buildings. Their jobs disappeared almost overnight. And, even with the Covid-19 vaccine, it may be a decade or more before many of their jobs return.

Such service workers, along with lower-paid manufacturing workers, seem to be the most likely to be involved in an armed revolt. By revolting, what does a group have to lose?  As a group, they are underpaid; they have no real prospects for upward mobility; they are not adequately educated for, and therefore not qualified for higher-paying technology-focused jobs.  

What about support from the political parties?  Interestingly, many in this group have been ardent Trump supporters.  Yet, Trump and the Republican Party have repeatedly dumped on this group economically. Just this past week Republicans in the Senate refused to consider bumping up the Covid-19 stimulus checks from $600 to $2,000.  Did the same group of Senate Republicans resist providing more Covod-19 funds to business? Of course not, the Republicans were glad to do so.

When this disadvantaged group finally wakes up, they will be angry and want revenge. That’s why I labeled the anticipated 5th US revolution as the Revenge Revolution.  This group will seek revenge for past injustices.  As noted in previous entries, many in this group are well-armed.

When there is a group that feels deprived, has no savings, has no job prospects, and has nothing to lose, and that is well-armed, you have an ideal core for starting a revolution. My take on the probability of a revolution?  The Gen-Zers will drive a cultural revolution for sure.  Probability the deprived start an armed revolution of some type?  75%.   To be continued.

#387. 5th US Revolution Possible? We’re In It!

04 Saturday Jul 2020

Posted by Jordan Abel in Post Trump Presidency, Sense Check, Societal Issues, Uncategorized

≈ 7 Comments

Readers: The focus of this blog since 2013 has been if a 5th revolution in the US would occur around 2020, give or take a few years.   The caveat was whether the time between previous revolutions, approximately 50 years, would hold again.

The previous revolutions were: #1, the American Revolution, which ended with the War of 1812; #2, the Civil War: #3, the “industrialization and migration/immigration” revolution of about 1910-1915; #4, cultural revolution from 1965-early 1970’s. (For more explanation about the revolutions, Entry #1.)

Well, no need to speculate any more about a 5th US revolution. Unless you’ve been living in a cave, the 5th US revolution has started.

One might argue that a 5th revolution, which early on I labeled as the “Revenge Revolution,” began with the election of Trump. And Trump’s election might be a fair starting point.

Clearly many people were upset and thought someone with no political experience and no credible business experience could make changes they thought necessary.  (Trump supporters if you disagree with the statement that Trump had no credible business experience, do some research with good sources. You’ll understand why the statement is true.)

Trump became president because of a fluke in the Constitution. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by more than 3 million votes.  Nonetheless, Trump gained the White House via the Electoral College.

Whether or not the Revenge Revolution started with Trump doesn’t matter for this conversation. The Revenge Revolution has started now, and on multiple fronts – economic, social, medical, and certainly political. The fronts are interrelated, although some discreet elements exist in each.

The coronavirus scourge seems to be the catalyst for the revolution. For starters, Covid-19 has demonstrated how disjointed, dysfunctional and discriminatory the US medical system is. Even if there are underlying genetic traits that make groups more susceptible to the virus – blood type A, for example – the treatment available to those needing hospitalization for Covid-19 has varied from adequate to warlike conditions where supplies are short and treatment has to be rationed.

Attempts to control the spread of the virus have also demonstrated how certain classes of workers could be classified.  Many highly educated workers were considered “non-essential” and therefore temporarily, if not permanently expendable.  Among workers considered “essential” were many less educated, lower-paid, minorities, often from Trump’s “shit-hole” countries list.  Mmm, how did so people from those countries become “essential”?  The Trump administration forgot to explain.

Attempts to control the virus also resulted in unprecedented closings of businesses, employee layoffs, and a record decline in GDP. While a percentage of people have been rehired, the rehiring could be temporary as the rate of infections accelerates in some areas.  The pattern of a quick uptick (in this case, employment) followed by a rapid decline sometimes is referred to as the “dead-cat bounce.”

The social leg of the Revenge Revolution has been simmering for more than 100 years. What brought the simmer to a boil was the video of the Minneapolis Police killing George Floyd.  Release of the video precipitated protests and some looting, not seen in such volume and intensity since the 1960s.

Unlike like many previous social protests, which often faded rather quickly, the current protest seems to be gaining momentum.  Actions being proposed range from reducing funding of police departments to eliminating statues of Confederate generals (these generals fought against the US after all) to changing the names of certain sports teams – Washington Redskins and Cleveland Indians, e.g.

The Trump White House has taken a stand that ignores the growing Revenge Revolution. Trump claims repeatedly that the coronavirus will “just go away”; that the economy will bounce back stronger than ever; and that the protests are being led by leftist, fascist, thugs.

Donald and his supporters can think whatever they want about the revolution but the revolution will only gain momentum, which in turn will lead to even more change.  Exactly what will change is hard to predict.  No pattern has emerged other than a likely shifting of political power to Democrats following the November election.

Since today is Independence Day, I want to end on a positive note. Revolutions often result in major technological advances. After the US works through the Revenge Revolution, there could be a burst of Innovations in the industrial and medical sectors with the potential of generating significant employment gains and improvement in life span.

There’s a great opportunity ahead. We need the right people at the top to manage the transition and capitalize on the opportunity.  Stay tuned. More to come.

Other information. Some of the blog entries are part of a series.  Several series are available as easy-to-read booklets for download:

  • Working with Lee Iacocca after he left Chrysler, 2019Q3 Iacocca Personal Observations. 
  • GM EV1 — behind-the-scenes events affecting development and introduction of the GM EV1, the first modern electric vehicle. 2020Q1 GM EV-1 Story Behind the Story Booklet
  • Coming technology tsunami and the implications for the US, Tech Tsunami Booklet with Supplement
  • Trump Supporters Brainwashed? A series discussing why Republics have abandoned basic principals, Are Trump Republicans Brainwashed 2020Q1
  • Who took out the Donald?  Who/what groups are most likely to “take out” Trump? Who Took Out the Donald Entries with Update
  • Revenge Revolution — description of what form the revolution might take, 20 01 07 Start of Revolution

#365 Sense Check re Likelihood of 5th US Revolution

01 Wednesday Jan 2020

Posted by Jordan Abel in Sense Check, Uncategorized

≈ 2 Comments

Entry #365 is a periodic “sense check” about the likelihood of a 5th revolution in the United States.  The first entry for this blog was in the fall 2013. The theme was based on a correlation that I discovered while writing another paper. The correlation was the United States has experienced some type of Revolution about every 50 years. (See Entry #1 for more explanation.)

According to my analysis, Revolution #4 occurred in the late 60s, early 1970s. If the pattern holds true, then there should be another revolution sometime around 2020. For nitpickers, measuring social change is not a precise algebraic equation. Therefore, a revolution in 2025 and even a few years later would still fall within the general guidelines of the 50-year cycle.

So, what’s the likelihood of this 5th revolution? What was unknown in 2013 was a likely trigger point. By late 2013 the Obama Administration had implemented numerous social reforms but none seemed likely to trigger a revolution. Doubtless, some groups in society, especially those on the far right, were frustrated by the Administration’s policies but some groups are always frustrated when there’s change.

What has changed since? Enter the effect of Trump. The “Trump effect” cannot be attributed solely to Trump. Trump was more a catalyst than the cause. Some change had been building in the Republican Party for years. No question that Trump has managed to accelerate the change in the Republican Party. And the change has been more extensive and faster than anticipated.

Trump’s involvement was even a surprise to Republicans and Democrats. Few expected him to earn the nomination and even fewer expected him to be elected. But Trump was elected, well sort of elected. Based on a popular vote count Trump received about 3 million fewer votes than Clinton. Nevertheless, Trump won the Electoral College vote, the second consecutive Republican to lose the popular vote and still be elected.

While the Electoral College win was frustrating for many Democrats, what seemed to shatter any hope of Congress and/or voter coming together was Trump’s personal behavior. From the moment the outcome of the election was clear, Trump ramped up his insulting, boorish behavior, further alienating Democrats and many independent voters.

Trump also managed to bully Republicans in the House and Senate into supporting his strange policies. Other than the late Senator John McCain, no Republican has been willing to challenge Trump’s abandonment of many previously held Republican principles – free trade and fiscal conservatism, e.g.

The bullying has resulted in the same Republicans making no public effort to stop Trump’s serial lying, denigration of widely-respected government employees, trashing of the FBI and CIA, insulting the military chain of command, and repeatedly insulting leaders of long-standing US allies. Nor, has any Republican made any serious counter to Trump’s public support of known enemies of the US, which is a direct threat to national security.

Among the voting public, Trump supporters seem to fall into three major camps and a fourth smaller camp. The three major camps are: #1, far-right fringe groups, who relish Trump’s support, whether intentional or not; #2, Evangelical Christians who seem to focus on one issue – abortion – and somehow disregard 99% of Trump’s behavior that seems contrary to their core religious beliefs; #3, long-time Republicans who somehow cannot fathom voting for a Democrat no matter how bad the Republican is for the welfare of the country. Many of these “yellow-dog Republicans” are likely primary voters who hold a disproportionate influence on members of Congress.

The fourth camp, which has the fewest number of people but the most influence, is the money camp. If one filters out all the noise, the quest for money is what drives Trump. His policies, whether tax policies or directives to such agencies as EPA to slow or stop enforcement, have consistently favored the money group. There is considerable evidence that seems to indicate his positive attitude toward and accommodation of the Russians is driven by access to their money.

Maybe most surprising and illogical to me is that Trump and Trump TV talking heads (Fox News) have convinced the three non-money camps that Trump’s policies are in their best economic interest, when in fact, the policies are contrary to the economic interests of virtually all these families. The 2017 tax cut is a good example. The tax cut threw a few bones to middle and lower-income families in the short term. However, beginning in the mid-2020’s, the “tax cut” results in penalties to middle-income families while continuing to benefit the rich.

In addition, the tax cut for corporations combined with the tax cut for the wealthy was so significant that the Federal deficit ballooned in 2019 – up 50% to about $1,000,000,000 – even though the economy was reasonably strong. Oh, yes I forgot, Trump is the reason the economy grew. The deficit grew because of Obama’s policies.    (Seriously, if you want to understand more about why “trickle-down” economics is a fraud, even though widely supported by many Republicans, start with Entry #21. It’s conversational and easy to understand. Entry #237 also addresses some fundamentals of economics.)

What could be the trigger point for the 5th US revolution is Trump’s reelection. But the revolution will not be started by Democrats. The revolution will be started by Trump supporters. Why?

Long before Trump, I assigned a name to the projected 5th revolution – the Revenge Revolution. But revenge for what?

Right now the table seems to have lots of plates that qualify for revenge – inequitable economic policies; environmental degradation; a department of education that favors private over public education; a president and first family that are enriching themselves at public expense; an immigration policy where children are physically separated from the parents then housed in cages for indefinite periods; an attorney general who promotes Trump as being above the law; a president who labels wounded military veterans as “scum;” a president who is a serial liar, distorting the truth about even the most insignificant issues…and the list goes on.

Despite all the obvious reasons for revenge against the Trump Administration, the Revenge Revolution may be started by an unexpected group. The group is Trump supporters.

If Trump is reelected, Trump will try to satisfy his money camp and start screaming about the need to reduce the Federal deficit. But Trump will argue the deficit cannot be reduced by raising taxes – such a move would kill economic growth and result in a recession. No, the only way to reduce the Federal deficit is with additional cuts in spending for social programs – food stamps, e.g. – as well as cutbacks in Medicare, Social Security and support for Obamacare.

If Trump is not reelected, then Republicans will make the same arguments that the Federal deficit is too high and must be reduced. One thing about their argument is correct. The rate of increase in the deficit needs to be reduced. But reduced by returning tax rates to levels under Obama, or even Clinton, and not by cutting social programs and cutting benefits for program workers have funded.

The proposed cuts in Medicare and Social Security may finally awaken Trump supporters to realize how much they’re going to be screwed economically under Trump’s new proposals , and then how much they have been screwed under Trump’s existing policies. When they do awaken, this group will be shocked and angry. They might also start listening to their children and grandchildren and finally acknowledge that global warming is real and not a hoax of some 3,000 scientist and every credible news outlet worldwide.

What form might the Revenge Revolution take? The 4th revolution in the late 1960’s/early 1970’s was a mix of social upheaval and armed rebellion. The social side is often referenced with a cutesy photograph of a couple hippies dressed in tie-dyes and smoking weed in Haight Asbury or at Woodstock.

The armed side of the 4th Revolution was much grimmer. Events included significant riots that devastated parts of Newark, Detroit and Los Angeles as well as protests in many other cities and college campuses. 1968 included the assassinations of Martin Luther King and Robert Kennedy.

Given the continued expansion of ownership of firearms, the Revenge Revolution is likely to be more of an armed rebellion than the 1960’s/1970’s. But who will be the aggressors and who will be the targets in the Revenge Revolution?

Although I have not done a deep-dive into the psychology of why, a group that seems likely to be part of the aggressors is those who view the changing demographics of the United States as diminishing the value of their “whiteness.” To me such thinking seems a bit absurd.

However, a long article in The NY Times (19 12 29 NYT Example of Attitude of Trump Supporters in AZ) discussed attitudes of some of Trump’s core base in Arizona. The base is very white, less-educated and seemingly either brainwashed or completely delusional about who is really impacted by Trump’s policies. Like many Trump supporters I’ve tried to talk to and understand, this group’s lexicon seems to be unique – “up” means “down,” “good” means “bad,” “hate” means ”patriotic,” etc.

A number of comments and quotes in the article left my head shaking. One comment from a Trump supporter that I found both frightening and amusing, “I don’t have a problem with Muslims but can they take the rag off their head out of respect for our country?” The scary part is this guy’s very anti-Muslim, and probably anti-black, anti-Asian and anti-Semitic as well.

The amusing side was it probably never occurred to the speaker he too was wearing a head-cover, thus by his own definition, disrespecting this country. And it probably never occurred to him his MAGA hat was made of the same basic cotton as the Muslim’s “rag.” Somehow I don’t irony would play well with this guy.

This group of self-proclaimed patriots discussed having an armed revolt if Trump was not reelected in 2020. Nice to see the patriots support the US Constitution and the electoral process.

On a broader scale the likelihood of a 5th US Revolution seems to increase with the findings of the impeachment proceedings, the bizarre actions/inactions by Mitch McConnell and the continued overhang of the many unanswered questions of Mueller Report, especially Trump’s association with the Russians – likely more about money than philosophy.

In the last Sense Check, Entry #332, I indicated the probability of the revolution had increased to “highly likely.” Based on what’s happened in Washington the past few months, a forecast of “highly likely” seems on solid ground with an emerging forecast closer to “almost assured.”

Unfortunately, as experienced during the 4th Revolution, the 5th US Revolution is likely to include the assassinations of high-profile figures. Targets will likely include those deemed “liberal,” whether judges, politicians, prominent business people, or media personalities. Equally unfortunate is that the police and/or the US military will be unable to prevent many of these killings.

Think about all the mass killings in the US and how they’ve occurred. (As of December 31, 2019, 434 mass shootings occurred in 2019… In these shootings, over 1,643 people were injured and 517 died, for a total of over 2,160 victims.) Virtually all were carried out by a single individual. Imagine a well-organized killing effort by a group of individuals with military-assault style rifles. There are millions of AR-15’s in private hands and even more rounds of ammunition. Yes, it’s scary.

As noted repeatedly throughout this blog, I hope the assumption is wrong about a 5th US revolution, the Revenge Revolution. Everyone who makes predictions makes mistakes. And I am no exception. However, I wish my track record at making accurate predictions were a little less positive than it is.

Welcome to the year 2020.

#332 Special Sense Check re Likelihood of a 5th US Revolution

20 Saturday Apr 2019

Posted by Jordan Abel in Sense Check, Societal Issues

≈ 11 Comments

Readers: this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1. 

Since starting to publish the blog in late 2013, I’ve written a “sense check” about every six months. The purpose of the sense check (the most recent prior sense check, Entry #318) is to assess whether in the next few years, a revolution in the US is still possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.

With each sense check I’ve become more convinced the US is headed for a 5th revolution. I understand that allowing the author to claim to evaluate content objectivity is like allowing the fox guard the henhouse.

What prompted me to write this “special sense check” was a combination of Trump’s known behavior the last few months, which can most politely be described as out of control, and Trump’s less-known behavior described in the Mueller Report, which can be described as even more out of control.  Given what we now know…and what’s likely to be released in the coming months…a Revenge Revolution seems not only possible, but now firmly in the category of “highly likely.”

If you’re a Trump supporter and still reading this entry, I want you to ask yourself, “If Trump were a Democrat with exactly the same accomplishments, same behavior, same cabinet, etc., would I still be so supportive of Democratic president Trump?”  A tougher question, “What if Hillary Clinton were president and had the same accomplishments, behavior…as Trump?”  If you support the president over party, then we can talk.  If you support party over president, you need to rethink your standards.  And Democrats?  You need to ask yourselves the same questions.    

While Trump’s behavior should be considered bizarre, even for some dictators, what is even more bizarre is the behavior by Republicans in Congress, especially the Senate. Republicans in the Senate have buried any moral standing and abdicated all responsibility for oversight of the Executive Branch. Republicans no longer bother to question, let alone resist actions and behaviors by Trump that are clearly contrary to the Constitution and, by accounts of most prosecutors, likely illegal.

Since the release of the Mueller Report, only one Republican Senator, Mitt Romney, has castigated Trump publicly for his behavior. Lindsey Graham, an alleged friend and supporter of the late John McCain, stated there was no reason for the Senate Judiciary Committee to call Robert Mueller to testify and provide more insight into his report. Yes, Lindsey, be a good lackey and make sure you don’t ask any questions about Trump…because someone might tell you the truth.

Republicans in the House and Senate should be more appropriately recast as Trump’s eunuchs. Starting with Mitch McConnell with Graham following closely, Republicans seem happy to have stood in line as Trump castrated them. Once castrated, the Republican eunuchs…excuse me Senators…allowed and even encouraged Trump to disregard safeguards created by the Founding Fathers. Senators, please read the Constitution and explain it to Trump, who obviously has never read it.

During the week of April 8, 2019, Trump, supported by the hack of an Attorney General confirmed for the job by the Republican eunuchs, accused members of the Justice Department of attempting a coup on his presidency. Trump’s primary talent seems to be as a great manipulator, who long ago convinced his base and now has convinced the Republic eunuchs that he overcame a sinister plot by Republicans inside the Justice Department to keep him out of office.

According to Trump, his election efforts were hurt, not helped, by the Comey press conference chastising Hillary Clinton. His election efforts were hurt, not helped because President Obama was respectful enough not to disclose publicly intercepts between members of the Trump election team and the Russians. According to Trump, he overcame the power of the Justice Department and the FBI. The career officials in Justice and the FBI should be considered the enemy because they attempted a coup to get him removed from office.

Seriously? I mean who actually thinks if the FBI wanted to take Trump out of office, they couldn’t do it? Who actually thinks like this? Sadly, a bunch of Trump supporters who refuse to read anything that’s written objectively, who believe the Barr BS and who only watch the alleged truthsayers on Fox News. Gee, boys and girls, don’t ya’ think one or two FBI agents could take Trump out in a heartbeat? In case you didn’t know it, that’s what some of the agents are trained to do.

But, no, we must cast logic aside. This is Trumpworld. The Great Manipulator, like the Wizard of Oz, claims to be a genius whose proclamations, no matter how far from reality, must be believed. According to Trump, Mueller wasn’t objective in his reporting. Why? Everyone on the Mueller team was a Democrat out to get Trump. (I guess the Donald forgot Mueller has long been a registered Republican.) And, to live in Trumpworld, we must believe the crap that comes from Donald’s tweets and foul mouth. Sadly, the Trump base and the castrated, brainwashed Republican senators do believe him.

If you still don’t believe that the Trump Administration is built around lying and deceit, then listen to Sarah Huckabee Sanders, the scholar from Ouachita Baptist University, who proclaimed that Trump’s tax returns were too complicated to understand and therefore should not be given to Democratic members of Congress…and certainly not released to the public. Forget that even after her admission of lying noted in the Mueller Report she refused to retract her claim about receiving communiques supporting Comey’s firing from “countless members” members of the Justice Department. Sarah Huckabee Sanders — what a great role model for her kids and the religious right. Oh, and Sarah’s daddy, Mike Huckabee, the preacher, former governor of Arkansas and former Republican candidate for president.  He must have taught her well and must be very proud of her lying.

So how does the country extricate itself from this mess? Given the Senate majority consists of mindless castrated puppets pretending to be thinking Republicans, the only way out of this incredible mess seems to be a Revolution. If not a full-blown Revolution, then what? Well, as ugly as it seems and sounds, the revolution, unfortunately, might include at least an attempted assassination of Trump and/or Pence, if either or both still in office, McConnell and possibly Barr. And, no, this revolution is not just a revolt led by Democrats. As I’ve noted from the get go with the blog, the revolution will be driven by a revolt from the working class.

The working stiffs have been screwed by Trump. While some of these people might stay in Trump’s camp because he continues to support their “whiteness,” which therefore makes them superior to “non-white” Americans, at some point money wins out over half-assed ideology. When the inevitable economic downturn occurs, the working stiffs will begin to appreciate just how little Trump has done for them. When they do, then all the other Trump shenanigans that have been ignored — stealing significant amounts of money, money laundering for Russians and who knows what else — will start to grate on the Trumpsters.

And who in this country has the largest cache of firearms and ammunition? It’s not the wealthy and the educated middle class. The largest cache is in the hands of the people who have been and will continue to be negatively affected economically under Trump. To quell the rebellion, let’s assume that Trump calls out the military. Even throw in all the local police. Well, there’s not enough manpower to stop the rebellion. There’ll be too many locations once the rebellion gets started. Plus, some of those who Trump will be asking to help quell the rebellion will be the very people he screwed. Mmm, just wonder how loyal those people will be to the Donald…and how many will be willing to fight family and friends under orders from the Donald?

Like I said, an ugly scenario. Well I’m open to ideas on how to stop what seems to be inevitable train wreck. If you have some ideas, please let me know. Thanks.

#318 Tipping Point on the Donald: Fingernails Are Too Long

23 Sunday Dec 2018

Posted by Jordan Abel in Causes of the Revolution, Gov't Policy, Sense Check

≈ 4 Comments

Readers: this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution and author, Entry #1.  Many entries are formatted as conversations. Characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations.  

Occasionally I do a “sense check” about the likelihood of a Revenge Revolution.  Entry #318 is a “sense check.”  One more note — sometimes I write about another topic that does not quite fit the theme of the blog.  Those comments are in the page titled “JRD Thoughts and Comments.“

When I started this blog more than five (5) years ago, two guidelines I set were key: (i) avoid spending too much time on political or economic events occurring in the previous week or two; (ii) avoid overreacting to such events. Throughout writing the blog I’ve tried to keep such events in proper perspective and also tried to frame the events in the context of the underlying premise of the blog – sometime after 2020 the US would experience a 5th revolution, which I labeled the “Revenge Revolution.”

Trying to avoid overreacting is borne out by history. Revolutions seem to be caused by events over time. However, a few events during a short period of time, or even one event, can tip the scales, triggering the populace to say, “Enough, already. Throw the bum(s) out. Time for a change!”

Although we rarely think about it, such trigger points happen in our everyday lives. A simple example is one day you look at your fingernails and think they’re too long. And with that realization, most of us feel an urgent need to take action and file the nails. Obviously the fingernails didn’t grow all at once. The fingernails grew a little bit every day and then, suddenly, the fingernails seemed too long.

This phenomenon is described by the Theory of Just Noticeable Difference, (JND). While JND is usually applied to more physical measures – e.g., length of fingernails – the theory seems to apply to less tangible measures as well. For many people, Trump’s behavior the past couple of weeks has been akin to a “fingernails-too-long” moment.

Just why would people think that way? Let’s take a quick review of events of the past couple of weeks. The list is not necessarily in chronological order.

  1. Michael Cohen, long-time Trump lawyer and “fixer” of problems, was sentenced to three (3) years in prison for what the judge called a “veritable smorgasbord of criminal conduct.” Earlier in 2018 Cohen’s offices were raided by the FBI. Cohen eventually became a cooperating witness against Trump in investigations by Mueller and the Southern District of NY. A partial list of crimes by Cohen has been disclosed. One crime of public interest, although one that eventually might prove to be a “lesser” crime, was for payments made immediately preceding the election to two women with whom Trump had affairs. The payments were a violation of campaign laws.
  2. National Enquirer, owned by American Media, Inc. CEO, David Pecker, admitted working with Cohen to help squash negative news about Trump immediately preceding the election. AMI was funneling money to cover a payment to at least one of the women. AMI’s involvement violated campaign finance laws.
  3. Michael Flynn, former Marine Corps general and former National Security Advisor to Trump, was anticipating no jail time at his sentencing. The judge chose to ignore the recommendations of the Special Counsel and dressed down the general in the court proceeding, indicating Flynn would be smart to ask for a delay in sentencing and agree to continue cooperating with Special Counsel for the next six (6) months. Even then the judge told Flynn he was subject to incarceration. Flynn was selected by Trump over widespread objections of the intelligence community.
  4. Matthew Whittaker, Acting Attorney General, refused to recuse himself from any involvement in the Mueller probe. Whittaker, who had been a regular on Fox News criticizing the investigation before being appointed by Trump, was strongly encouraged by the Ethics Office to recuse himself. Whittaker ignored the advice. In addition, there is some question whether his appointment was legal and whether certain actions taken by Justice Department under his appointment would be legal. The nominee to become the permanent head of Justice has been equally critical of the Mueller investigation and appears to have been chosen for that reason.
  5. Ryan Zinke, head of Dep’t of Interior, resigned. Zinke is subject of at least five ongoing investigations for various crimes.
  6. Trump Foundation agreed to dissolve after a lawsuit by the State of New York Attorney General claiming “…shocking pattern of illegality.” Based on claims presented by the State AG, it appears Trump and several members of the Trump family could face significant civil fines and possible criminal indictments.
  7. John Kelly, Trump’s chief of staff and former Marine Corps general, was fired by Trump. Kelly’s replacement – Mick Mulvaney. Mulvaney, a former representative from South Carolina, is currently Director of Office of Management and Budget. Mulvaney supposedly will function as chief of staff and run OMB. The practical effect is Trump has no chief of staff to manage schedules or try to coordinate legislation with Congress. How long will Mulvaney last? Mulvaney once called Trump’s views on a border wall and immigration “simplistic” and “absurd and almost childish.” Mulvaney added a physical barrier would not stop undocumented immigrants from crossing the Mexican border and ranchers at the border say they don’t need a fence.
  8. James Mattis, former Marine Corps 4-star, resigned as head of Dep’t of Defense. For Mattis the “fingernails-too-long” moment was Trump not seeking advice of the military and intelligence community before announcing, via Twitter, that the US would withdraw troops from Syria and probably withdraw half the forces from Afghanistan. The arbitrary decision on Syria shocked people in the US military, Congress and US allies. Since DOD was established in 1947, Mattis is the first head to resign in protest. If you have not read the letter of resignation, please do so.     18 12 21 Mattis Letter of Resignation NYT
  9. Trump Administration lifted sanctions on a Russian oligarch, Oleg V. Deripaska, who has close ties to Putin and Manafort.
  10. Putin publically praised Trump for his decisions re Syria and lifting sanctions on the Russian oligarch. (Sort of makes you wonder whose camp Trump is in, doesn’t it?)
  11. Trump, in a highly unusual public meeting in the White House, attempted to negotiate with Senator Charles Schumer of NY (top Democrat in Senate) and Representative Nancy Pelosi (incoming Speaker of the House) about a budget resolution that would continue to fund the Federal government. During the negotiations, Trump demanded that $5.0 billion be included for part of Trump’s Mexican border wall. If the $5.0 billion were not included, Trump declared in front of rolling cameras that he would be “”proud to shut down the government for border security.” The Senate passed a bill that included additional funding for border security but not a wall. The House, still under Paul Ryan, passed a bill that included funding for a wall. The House bill then forced the bill back to the Senate which refused to fund the wall. Trump then flip-flopped and tried to blame Democrats for the subsequent shutdown what he claimed he would be “proud” to do.
  12. Trump, after claiming that he was responsible for gains in the stock market, then blamed the Federal Reserve chairman for causing the largest percentage loss in value in any December since 1931. To “correct the problem,” Trump indicated he would fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, whom Trump appointed earlier in 2018 after firing Janet Yeltin.

There are probably more events but these are the ones that came to mind…with no further research. Yikes!! Any one of these events would have been a major scandal in a “normal” administration.

What do these events mean for the likelihood of a Revenge Revolution? If we were living during the era of the Wild West, I’d say, “Add another notch to your gun.”

I’ve not conducted a survey that would be considered scientifically valid. However, after listening to a number of people on the left, center and right, I get the sense that many have reached a “fingernails-too-long” moment…and some corrective action needs to be taken. Interesting, even some on the far right seem frustrated, but maybe for a different reason. They might sense that adults could start taking back Washington.

One far-right person that I deal with (data points of one are dangerous except in Washington), suggested he would use armed force to defend his property against any government action. I had limited time and did not dig deeper into what he considered intrusive government action. Nor did I take time to remind him the only reason he can claim ownership of property is…well, because of the legal structure established by the government. I’ll explain that role of government to him on another day.

So where are we? Many people seem to think Trump is so out of control that he needs to be removed from office. And what does that attitude mean for the likelihood of a Revenge Revolution? When I started the blog in 2013, the chances of a Revenge Revolution by the early 2020’s were at the very most 50 (yes):50 (no). Over time the odds seemed to have increased gradually. Now the odds have increased to 75 (yes): 25 (no) – at a minimum. And, without much effort, I could be talked into raising the odds to 90 (yes): 10 (no). It is truly a scary time.

If you’d like to read more about how a Revenge Revolution might get started, take a look at Entries #1-#8. (E-book version of the entries, How the 5th US Revolution Begins and About the Author).  These were my initial blog entries. I recently reread and the entries seem OK. If you are interested in how Trump might be “taken out” – impeached or physically removed from office – try Entries #244-#257. For a PDF e-book, DOWNLOAD Who Took Out the Donald #244-#257. These entries were written in summer 2017. The general content still seems plausible.

Thanks for your time. Comments welcome.

   

#311 Why I Left the Republican Party…Rather It Left Me

17 Wednesday Oct 2018

Posted by Jordan Abel in Sense Check, Societal Issues

≈ 1 Comment

Readers: this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution and author, Entry #1.  Most entries are formatted as conversations. Characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations.

Occasionally I break from the normal formatting and do a “sense check.”  Auditing one’s own work is problematic but I try to be objective.  Entries #300 and #301 are the most recent standard “sense checks.”   

This is second consecutive unanticipated entry.  In entry #310, “Will Kavanaugh Accelerate the Revenge Revolution?” I indicated I had voted for Republicans in the past.  A reader asked me to elaborate on why I left the Republican Party. This entry addresses the question.

abraham_lincoln_clip_art_15515As noted in #310, my reference point is a Republican Party of Abraham Lincoln, Everett Dirksen and Jacob Javits. The attitude of that Republican Party could best be described using a slogan from Bush 43’s 2000 presidential campaign, “compassionate conservatism.”

Why that reference point for the Republican Party? I grew up in Illinois with very early years on the north side of Chicago but formative years in Central Illinois. Central Illinois is an interesting mix of agriculture and manufacturing with the center-point the University of Illinois in Champaign-Urbana. For those unfamiliar with the area, the soil is stunningly productive for farming – corn, soybeans and many other crops. Throw in a seed and a plant grows.  They soil color is coal-black and crumbles easily in your hand. The soil is not gray, not reddish-brown but black.

The farms ring a number of medium-sized towns that provide the center of commerce for farmers. For many years, the towns were supported by manufacturing plants, and in some cases corporate headquarters — Caterpillar in Peoria, for example. Populations for most of these towns ranged from 25,000 to 75,000. Population mix was mostly western European and a smaller percentage of blacks, many of whom had migrated from the south. Religions leaned more toward Protestant than Catholics and some towns had a surprising number of Jews. In our neighborhood grammar school, for example, about 20% of students were Jewish.

School BldgIn our particular town – population approaching 50,000 – the public school system was top-notch with quality teachers in all grades. High-school students had a choice of three tracks and could switch between tracks for a limited number of classes – college prep, general education, technical training. The town produced a disproportionate number of famous and successful people in a wide range of occupations – education, entertainment, medicine, military (early astronaut), science and industry.

Like most school districts years ago, busing was limited to outlying areas that could not support a school. Most everyone attended a neighborhood grammar school and a middle school that was reasonably close. There was one very large, well-equipped public high school (and a parochial high school). And guess what? As a student, you needed to figure out how to get to high school on your own.

As far as fiscal attitude – conservative. If a family was wealthy, it was expected to be discrete about displaying wealth. Everyone was expected to share with others to the extent possible. A description for sharing can best be described by Nike’s tagline – just do it…and keep quiet about it. Shouting and bragging were definite no no’s.

This town was part of the ellipse in Illinois where Lincoln spent most of his time before heading to Washington.   While the area was solid Republican, the voters were not tribal Republicans. Most people, from what I recall, voted a split ticket.

And, no, the town was not Mayberry II, although there were many of these same attitudes. The town did have its problems. Most blacks were clearly on the lower rungs of the economic ladder. While doubtless discrimination existed, I do not recall the discrimination being overt and certainly no signs at restaurants, drinking fountains and other public places. Further, different groups seemed to work together to address problems.

Shake HeadSo that’s a description of the Republican Party I grew up with and use as a reference point for those running for political office. Such a Republican Party no longer exists. When I hear a Republican call it the party of Lincoln, I shake my head and want to scream. Most of today’s Republicans have no clue about the values of the party of Lincoln.

Back to the reader’s question, “What made me leave the Republican Party?” Based on my reference points for the Republican Party, I didn’t leave the Party, it left me. While I’m still a compassionate conservative – compassionate socially and conservative fiscally – I’m now branded a screaming liberal. What happened to Republicans’ social conscious and fiscal conservatism? The party now can be described as bi-polar…and not taking medication. The Party has shifted to the extreme ends for social issues and fiscal recklessness.

The slide from fiscal conservatism started under Ronald Reagan. How can that be, you say. Reagan was a fiscal conservative.

buffettI share the view of many economists that a very good way to assess the potential impact of debt for a country is to measure outstanding debt as a percent of GDP (gross domestic product). Think of it this way. Pretend you’re a banker. Two people walk into a bank and want to borrow $25,000,000. One of them is someone like you…and the other is Warren Buffet.   The bank decides on loans based on income and assets. For someone like you, the $25,000,000 is likely to be multiples higher than your income and assets. For Warren Buffet, the $25,000,000 is considered chump change. Thus, a large amount of debt isn’t necessarily bad if you have a large income and/or large asset base, which the US does. The US government owns lots of land and buildings.

ReaganFollowing WWII and up to the Reagan Administration, debt as a percent of GDP declined. During the Reagan Administration debt as a percent of GDP increased from about 30% to about 50% — a relative increase of 60%. Under Reagan, the relative increase in debt was only somewhat less than experienced during the New Deal under FDR. Under Bush 41 relative debt percent increased over 25% beyond Reagan. Under Bush 43, relative debt increased over 40% from the Clinton years.  Under Trump, despite a very strong economy the Federal debt for FY2018 was the highest in 6 years. The deficit under Trump is expected to balloon to over $1,000,000,000,000 annually because of the gigantic tax cut that reduced taxes primarily for the wealthy.

Debt and GDPWhat about debt increases under Democrats? They were even worse, right? Well, no. Throughout the Clinton Administration, debt as a percent of GDP decreased a little over 12%. During some years under Clinton, the US ran a surplus. Under Obama, relative debt climbed about 35%, even with the combination of fiscal stimulus required to avoid another Great Depression and the introduction of the Affordable Care Act. Debt under Obama, despite all the cries from Republicans increased less than under either Regan or Bush 43. So, which party is more fiscally conservative? If you look at fiscal policies under Republicans, one term comes to mind – red ink.

Let’s look at social policies since Reagan. Policies to concentrate wealth, as have been implemented by Republicans, negatively affect the general well-being of the populace. Tax cuts primarily for the rick, aka “trickle-down economics,” does not work, nor has any Republican provided any empirical evidence of it working in any developed country. As more wealth has flowed to the top, there has been less wealth in the middle.

Minimum WageFurther, Republican have resisted increasing the minimum wage. When Reagan was inaugurated, the minimum wage in real terms (adjusted for inflation) was about $10.00 per hour. Today’s minim wage is $7.75 per hour, a decrease in real terms of more than 20%. The decrease reduces further the ability of lower-skilled, entry-level workers to earn enough to exceed the poverty line. What happened to the “compassion” of the Republican Party?

Adding to the lack of “compassion” is the effort by Republicans to take away individual rights…at least for people who don’t buy into the Republican doctrine. According to Republican right, the US is a Christian country – just forget why the Pilgrims left England. Therefore, all laws should follow what the religious right believes. Take Roe v Wade. Forget the rights of the mother, she does not matter. Forget that the baby cannot survive outside the womb until much later in the pregnancy. All abortion must be banned…despite the First Amendment.

ConstitutionJust in case today’s Republicans have not read the Constitution, as is abundantly clear from listening to President Trump, the First Amendment reads as follows, “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or the press (see the press is not your enemy but protected!), or the right of people to peaceably assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.”

While Republicans want to deny individual rights with regard to abortion…and ignore the First Amendment…Republicans insist that the Second Amendment is all about individual rights.  Well, individual rights are OK as long as guns are involved. The Second Amendment reads, “A well-regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.”

What does the Second Amendment really mean? The wording allows individuals to own firearms. In Central Illinois, most households, including ours, had some type of firearm. In fact, I have the same rifle I purchased at about age 14.

WashingtonAt the time the Constitution was written…for all the “Constitutionalists in the crowd” that was 225+ years ago…the United States had a very small “standing army.” The defense of the country relied on “well-regulated” state militia – think National Guard. Members of the well-regulated militia were “citizen soldiers” and expected to provide firearms, as implied in the Second Amendment. Over time the US created a permanent military for “the security of the free state,” thus the standing army eliminated the need for citizen soldiers.

With the advent of a standing army, a strict interpretation of the 2nd Amendment might have banned citizens from owning firearms. But citizens have been allowed to retain firearms. With a standing army there is absolutely no need or justification for military-grade weapons to be held outside the “well-regulated” standing army. Weapons such as military-style assault rifles and higher-caliber rifles, especially a .50 caliber rifle, are designed to kill as many people as possible.

These weapons are not designed for deer hunting or target shooting. Yet, thanks to the NRA and some politicians, an individual is able to own a military-style assault weapon, and even worse, a .50 caliber rifle. For those not familiar with these weapons, a .50 caliber rifle will blow a hole in the side of a brick building. You don’t need that much firepower to take down a herd of charging elephants, which are not common in most US neighborhoods. If you want to go play with these type weapons, then go join the US military.

Now, what about consistency? Republicans state that since one must register and get an ID to drive, have an ID get on an airplane, have ID cash a check, and probably register your dog, plus who knows how many other instances, then one should have to register and show an ID to vote. All the registrations and ID are for your safety. OK, then following that same line of thinking, surely Republicans would support mandatory registration of individual firearms – for your safety, of course.  Mmm, so what’s the big objection?

I could go on but it should be clear why I no longer vote Republican. The Republican Party of today is not compassionate, not conservative…and not consistent… and certainly does not hold the same values of Lincoln, Dirksen and Javits. Your comments welcome.

#310 Sense Check: Will Kavanaugh Accelerate the Revenge Revolution? Is There a Moderating Force?

09 Tuesday Oct 2018

Posted by Jordan Abel in Sense Check, Societal Issues, Stupid Is as Stupid Does

≈ 2 Comments

Readers: this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution and author, Entry #1.  Most entries are formatted as conversations. Characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations.

Occasionally I break from the normal formatting and do a “sense check.”  Auditing one’s own work is problematic but I try to be objective.  Entries #300 and #301 are the most recent standard “sense checks.”  

This “sense-check” entry was unplanned. What precipitated this entry was the confirmation process to have Brett Kavanaugh become a SCOTUS justice.

fife-drum%201As a result actions during the confirmation process, I increased the chances of a 5th US revolution to “highly likely.” However, my reasons for changing to “highly likely” may be different from what many others have stated or written about the Kavanaugh nomination/confirmation process.

Some background – the Constitution states the president shall nominate candidates to be SCOTUS justices. The Constitution requires Senate approval of the nominee. The Constitution does not provide many guidelines. For example, the Constitution does not prohibit a president from nominating someone whose views or interpretation of laws are considered to be extremely right or left, and therefore likely outside the views of the populace. Nor does the Constitution require the nominee be a current member of the judiciary. The nominee could be a dishwasher at a restaurant.

ConstitutionFurther, there is no requirement that the president nominate, or the Senate confirm, candidates to ensure a balance of opinion on SCOTUS. While the situation unlikely, say if all liberal-leaning justices left the Court during the term of one president, the president could nominate and the Senate could approve, justices so the entire Court supported rulings considered far right.

With that background, my assessment of the likelihood of a 5th revolution associated with the Kavanaugh confirmation has little to do with Kavanaugh’s political views or interpretation of the law. What I believe is the wedge that will almost ensure a Revenge Revolution is the attitude and actions of key members of the Senate – most notably Senators McConnell, Graham and Collins. Most of the balance of this entry is directed at the behavior of Senator McConnell, whose actions I believe have deepened the chasm between parties to such an extent that it might be another 50 years or more before the Senate functions as it should. The chasm will exist even if the US experiences a Revenge Revolution.

(And readers, if you think I’m a bitter hard-core liberal, you are sadly mistaken. For years I was a “thinking” Republican, in the vein of Lincoln, Dirksen and Javits. But the Republican Party has shifted far right and key members of the Party seem to have lost their ability to think and reason. There is no room for me in today’s Republican Party. In today’s Republican Party, Lincoln would be considered a screaming liberal, if for no reason other than he liberated “those people.”)

Supreme CourtOver the decades, what has allowed SCOTUS rulings to be recognized as law of the land by the populace? Obviously not everyone has supported every decision but why have even controversial decisions become the law of the land? Trust by the people in the objectivity of the justices.   In parallel, the Court’s decisions likely have been moderated to a degree by public opinion. Justices have recognized the need to create trust and acknowledge public opinion so the vast majority of SCOTUS rulings have not been too far left or right.

What’s changed with the Kavanaugh nomination? McConnell blindly led the charge to confirm a candidate that far less than half the American public supported. What’s even more puzzling, McConnell stated achieving the confirmation for Kavanaugh was “…his greatest achievement (again).”

McConnellLet’s take a closer look at McConnell’s greatest achievement. The initial phase of this latest “great achievement” was McConnell denying president Obama the right to have the Senate consider a nominee to fill an open seat on SCOTUS. According to McConnell the vacancy should be filled “after the people vote.” Forget the Constitution, forget precedent, McConnell alone should decide when a vacancy on SCOTUS should be filled.

Waiting for the people to vote applies only to nominees of Democratic presidents and not Republican presidents. Following Justice Kennedy’s retirement after the 2017-2018 term, McConnell flip-flopped. The hell with the rationale used to deny Obama his rightful pick by never having a hearing re Merrick Garland – and instead let’s push for a shorted confirmation process for Brett Kavanaugh. This time the Senate should confirm the nominee before the elections. Now McConnell thinks the people shouldn’t speak. Just to make sure any thinking Senator couldn’t make an informed decision about Kavanaugh, McConnell (through Senator Grassley) withheld a vast number of documents written by Kavanaugh during the Bush Administration.

Dig HoleTo further build public trust…or maybe that’s distrust…in Kavanaugh, McConnell (this time thru Grassley and Trump), stonewalled efforts to dig deeper into Kavanaugh’s past. Charges ranged from sexual assault to excessive gambling. Rather than let the FBI explore a series of allegations fully, the Judiciary Committee allowed only one key witness to testify – yes, only one – Dr. Christine Blasey Ford.   Kavanaugh followed Dr. Ford and managed to create even more concern about his truthfulness and demeanor as publicly insulted Senators seeking answers to some basic questions and even lied about what he should have dismissed as youthful indiscretions.

Just to make sure even more trust in Kavanaugh was eroded, McConnell, again through Grassley and Trump, restricted a supplemental FBI background check. The FBI investigation was limited to basically asking if Kavanaugh regularly kicked his dog in public. There were no follow-up interviews with either Ford or Kavanaugh. Equally baffling, 40 or more witnesses who could have provided more insight into Kavanaugh’s past were never interviewed. Let’s see Mitch, the FBI was not allowed to interview Dr. Ford, Kavanaugh…or anyone who possibly had relevant information. Great way to build trust in the FBI report. And, one more thing – remember Mitch the Judiciary Committee hearing was not a trial. It was a job interview. People with demonstrated nasty dispositions are usually not hired for positions of public trust.

092615_2031_Characters12.gifWhile those on the political right might view with great satisfaction McConnell’s tactics of attempting to hide the truth about Kavanaugh, thereby giving the finger to the left, how would the right react if a nominee from a Democratic president had the same questionable background and exhibited the same rude behavior as Kavanaugh? I can hear the cries now, “Lock him up! Lock him up!”

Among people who actually think about issues and people’s behavior…yes, there are such people…hypocrisy and lack of trust are major negatives. Among people who think, the end result does not justify unethical means to achieve.

I’ve said in several entries that many Republicans appear to be brainwashed. I continue to be dumbfounded at how seemingly intelligent people make incredibly stupid decisions. Under the Trump presidency the brainwashing seems to have been especially effective on Republicans in Congress.

CollinsSenator Susan Collins is among the brainwashed or brain-dead. Collins gave a 45-minute talk justifying support of Kavanaugh. Her remarks included some truly nonsensical statements. For example, she claimed that as a sitting judge, Kavanaugh has consistently supported legal precedent…unless he considered the precedent wrong. Huh, Susan? In real speak that means precedent plays no part in Kavanaugh’s decisions. Why would anyone ever make such an inane claim? Collins was also interviewed on “60 Minutes” the day after the confirmation. Based on her comments during “60 Minutes,” no one would ever accuse her of being a deep thinker. Enough about Collins.

GrahamThen we have Senator Lindsey Graham. Graham’s behavior of late could be compared to that of Stormy Daniels in one of her movies – constantly taking on new positions and new partners, including cuddling up to president Trump. At least Stormy Daniels has been straightforward with the public about her beliefs. No so for Graham. Say Lindsey, do you not remember any lessons from John McCain?

McConnell’s claim that his greatest accomplishment was getting an unqualified, unpopular nominee who lied to the Senate, approved for SCOTUS sets the stage. Mitch baby, if you think Kavanaugh is your greatest accomplishment, then your value system is highly skewed in the wrong direction. Worse still, you are a perfect complement to Trump. Neither of you has any principles.

Goes Around Comes AroundAmong people who have principles, there is an adage that most learned early in life. Mitch you must have missed the class…again and again and again. The adage is, “What goes around, comes around.” The follow-on part of that adage is when it comes back, the intensity is usually much greater. My suggestion Mitch? Be on the lookout because your life is about to begin heading down a very steep hill.

Where does all this lead? The Revenge Revolution seems “highly likely.” What’s worse, with the Revenge Revolution there may be far more bloodshed than any “revolution” since the Civil War. Just as a reminder, entry #1 in this blog talks about a roughly 50-year cycle between US revolutions. Some of those revolutions have been military and some social. The last great social upheaval in the US began with the events of 1968. If I do my math, 2018 is just about 50 years later.

John RobertsIs there any hope? Yes, there’s some. While we probably can’t avoid the Revenge Revolution, the intensity could be moderated by one person – Chief Justice John Roberts. Roberts is a smart guy. Roberts knows his legacy will be determined by how credible the public views decisions of SCOTUS. Roberts also knows he’s got two justices who are considered illegitimate by many people – Thomas and Kavanaugh.

What can Roberts do? Move left on a number of high-profile cases, making sure the decisions are more balanced. Roberts is likely to twist some arms and seek some 6-3 or 7-2 decisions. People understand not every decision will be what they want. But thoughtful decisions that consider the concerns of groups left and right will help maintain credibility of SCOTUS.

Thanks for your time reading this entry. As always, comments welcome.

#301 Republicans: Ask Yourself These Questions about Why You Continue to Support Trump

22 Sunday Jul 2018

Posted by Jordan Abel in Sense Check, Societal Issues

≈ 16 Comments

Readers: this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution and author, Entry #1.  Most entries are formatted as conversations. Characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations.

Occasionally I break from the normal formatting and do a “sense check.”  Auditing one’s own work is problematic but I try to be objective.  Your thoughts are welcomed and appreciated.  Thanks for your time and interest…and comments, please.

During the Independence Day weekend, I tried to assess in Entry #300 whether a 5th US revolution was likely sometime in the next few years.  While one should always be careful about claiming objective analysis of one’s own writing, I concluded “Yes, a revolution is likely.”

Well, this past two weeks seemed to add an exclamation point or two to that conclusion.  Over the years in this blog I’ve tried to avoid commenting on daily or weekly events.  Many such events are merely “noise” over the long-term…and there are many talking heads in the various media offering their analysis.

Jaw Drop

However, Trump’s behavior recently has been jaw-droppingly bizarre, even by Trump standards.  Consider his behavior at the NATO meeting when he trashed the US’ most loyal allies.  The apparent effort to dismantle NATO was a pure gift to Putin.  The NATO alliance was established by the US post WWII as a counter to the Soviet Union’s efforts to invade other European countries.  The history of and reason for NATO seem to be unknown to Trump.

One can argue what percent of GDP NATO countries should spend on defense.  The target for countries is 2.0% of GDP and participating countries have been moving toward the 2.0% target.  Rather than complimenting these efforts and then taking credit for their increased spending, Trump berated them by offhandedly claiming the countries should increase spending to be more in line with the US, or 4.0% of GDP.

swastika

Legitimate arguments have two sides.  The other side of demanding more spending on defense is the reminder than the US and western European allies fought a very heavily armed Germany in WWI and WWII.  Be careful about encouraging countries to build a very strong defense system when one or more could become your adversary.  Remember, it’s better to have a potential adversary inside the tent pissing out than outside ppissing in.

Following the NATO meeting Trump visited England and managed to humiliate publicly Prime Minister May.  And for what gain?  The US has no skin in the Brexit game.  Regardless of the deal Britain negotiates with the European Union, the US can continue to trade with both.  So why trash the Prime Minister?   Why be rude to THE most reliable European ally?  What was there to gain?

Puppet

The only rationale seems to be Trump wanted to gain approval from Putin.  But why court Putin?  Putin doesn’t play golf, at least as far as we know.   Putin doesn’t appear to be a particularly affable guy.  I mean would you really want to sit down and have a beer and cigar with the guy?  So why try to gain his approval?  Why would you want to be Putin’s puppet?

Let’s start by following the money.  Based on what I know about his finances, Trump seems to be in considerable debt to Putin’s cronies (and maybe Putin) — probably hundreds of millions of dollars.  With all that debt Trump seems more worried about protecting his own skin that protecting the welfare of the United States.  Think about taking a loan from the Russians as taking a loan from the gangster-cartoon-clip-art-540pxmafia.  The Russians, like the mafia, play serious hardball when it comes to collecting debts.  Trump and Manafort seem to be aware of the dirt bath they might get if they don’t cooperate with the Russians.

If it’s not the money, then Trump must be so mentally unhinged that he belongs on the funny farm.  Likely the cause is both the money and unstable mentally but let’s stick with the money.

Which brings the discussion back to a like 5th US revolution – the Revenge Revolution.  While as of this writing Trump’s approval ratings among Republicans remains remarkably high, the very high ratings might be best viewed like a bubble in the stock market or housing market.  The bubbles seem to last well beyond what is logical, then suddenly burst and all the air gets sucked out.

Bubble Bursting

What might precipitate the Trump support-bubble bursting?  When the scope of the corruption begins to touch those closest to Trump – immediate family.  What happens to support when Robert Muller goes before the grand jury and gets indictments for Junior, Ivanka and Jared Kushner?  Will Republicans begin to wake up to the extent of the corruption?

What about the public testimony from the US translator during discussions with Putin in Helsinki.  What about the transcript the Russians release of the meeting?  Republicans, surely you’re not so naïve to believe the Russians didn’t record the meeting.

Will Republicans begin to realize Trump’s relationship with Putin could qualify as treason?  Yes, despite the White House flip-flops and wildly funny explanations, the Russians are continuing to try influencing elections in the US.  Such efforts could rightfully be considered an attack on the US and therefore any effort to aid and abet the enemy (Russia) would be considered treasonous.

mirror-clipart_jpg

Republicans go look in the mirror and ask yourself, “Why would I support a president whose behavior is not in the best interests of the United States?”  “Why would I support a president who shows more support for Russia than our closest allies?”

OK, so you don’t like the French…or even the Germans.  And yes, English food is a bit bland.  But why should…and no it wasn’t shouldn’t…you support a president who states publicly his distrust for the US intelligence agencies?

Why support a president who refused to allow anyone to sit in on the meeting with Putin in Helsinki?  Why support a president who refuses to have someone transcribe dialogue at the meeting?   Who refuses (as of this date) to share any information from the meeting with the head of the intelligence agencies or the military?  Republicans – doesn’t this behavior give you reason to pause and ask “What is going on here?”

Putin

Why would a president want to keep secret dialogue with an arch enemy?  Would you still be as supportive if such behavior had been exhibited by president Obama or if Hillary Clinton were president?  I’ll just bet you might not be as silent and sanguine.

If you’re a Republican, how can you justify and support Trump’s behavior as president?  Your rationale is not only flimsy, but filled with holes.  Have you no shame?

drone-manWhile you might ignore all the shenanigans and secrecy with the Russians, claiming the “Trump haters” just don’t understand and are overreacting as usual, I’ll bet you begin to pause when Trump’s so-called “economic policies” hit your pocketbook hard.  Without getting into a wonkish discussion about economics, several of Trump’s so-called economic policies – tariffs, even on countries even where we have a trade surplus, massive tax cuts for business and the wealthy, promoting a weak dollar, promoting low interest rates and a couple of others – are at cross purposes.  First and maybe most important is the tariffs will raise prices and reduce employment – and your pocketbook will be affected.

If Trump wants to make the US more competitive in specific industries, which everyone supports, then two critical items are necessary – increased investment in those industries and a better education for more people.  Trump’s economic polices do neither.

Woman ScornedThere’s more to discuss but enough for now.  The final thought of this “sense check” entry.  When all the lower-income Trump supporters finally realize they’ve been had, we will see the tipping point for the revolution. Remember, hell hath no fury like a (former Trump supporter) scorned.  So Republicans, be prepared and make sure to enjoy the ride to the Revenge Revolution.

#300 Sense Check: Is a 5th US Revolution Likely? (Yes)

08 Sunday Jul 2018

Posted by Jordan Abel in Sense Check

≈ 17 Comments

Readers: this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution and author, Entry #1.  Most entries are formatted as conversations. Characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations.

Occasionally I break from the normal formatting and do a sense check.  Auditing one’s own work is problematic but I try to be objective.  Your thoughts are welcomed and appreciated,  Thanks for your time and interest…and comments, please.

Is a 5th revolution in the US likely after the year 2020?  The short answer is “yes.”

WhySince today is part of a long weekend celebrating July 4 and the nation’s declaration of independence, what better time to step back and assess the premise of this blog.  I’ve been writing the blog for about five (5) years with a few months between starting writing and publishing the initial entry.  What has surprised me the most the past five years is not that a revolution seems likely…but the path to the 5th revolution.

Obama PicFive years ago (2013), Barack Obama was in the second term of this presidency. Some key points of that time: (i) the economy was slowly but steadily recovering from the Great Recession of 2008; (ii) even with the economic recovery median household income was flat (not unexpected given the depth of the recession); (iii) the Affordable Care Act, aka Obamacare, was just beginning to be fully implemented; (iv) Republicans were making every effort to thwart legislation of nearly any action proposed by president Obama.  Recall Mitch McConnell declared about two years into Obama’s term that his job and the job of Republicans in Congress McConnellwas to make Obama a one-term president.  In addition to attempting to thwart any legislative action, Republicans were holding what became endless hearings on Benghazi.  The pattern of these type hearings continued throughout Obama’s presidency.  None of the hearings produced any substantive evidence of intentional wrongdoing.

In the media, cable was overtaking the networks as a primary source of news.  Cable outlets are not subject to the same FCC restrictions as over-the-air networks.  As a result, news on some cable channels became more of an ongoing editorial with less objective reporting of events.  Fox News, although claiming to be fair and balanced, was the most extreme among the cable news outlets about editorializing events.  At the time Fox had the most overall viewers among cable news channels.  Since 2013 the right-leaning Fox has shifted farther right with even more frequent wildly exaggerated, unsubstantiated claims couched as news.  Over the same period, CNN has moved more left.  While I’m certain Fox News watchers would disagree, MSNBC seems to have carved out a middle, if somewhat left-leaning, position, with more objective reporting.

(As a sidebar, I find intriguing the education level of “top-of-the-heap” talking heads of the various media outlets.  The kings of the hard right, Hannady and Limbaugh, do not have college degrees.  Limbaugh attended college for one year; Hannady attended three colleges over three years.  Rachael Maddow, MSNBC, has an undergraduate degree from Stanford University and doctorate from Oxford, where she was a Rhodes Scholar.  Chris Hayes, MSNBC, has an undergraduate degree from Brown University and had three (3) fellowships, including one at Harvard.  Exactly what this means, I don’t know but seems worth exploring more.)           

Math ClassAs noted in Entry #1 of this blog, the idea of a 5th revolution in the US was based on math.  Looking back at US history, there seemed to be a revolution about every 50 years.  #1 was the “American Revolution.”  While the American Revolution started in 1776, the revolution did not end until the War of 1812.  #2 revolution was the Civil War, which began in 1861.  #3 revolution was about 1910-1915 with a major societal upheaval associated with rapid industrialization and mass migration – both domestic migration north to factories and the influx of immigrants. #4 revolution was the cultural revolution of the late 1960’s, early 1970’s.  So, given this pattern, I added 50 years to 1970 and, voila, time for another revolution around 2020.

What was not apparent to me five years ago was the catalyst for the revolution.  When Obama was president, many whites were frustrated and angry.  However, the president himself was calm…so calm at times he was called “No drama Obama.”

trump-scowlThe unexpected catalyst for the 5th revolution, at least what seems to be so far, was the unexpected and unlikely 2016 Republican presidential nominee – Donald Trump.  Trump ran a very unconventional campaign, capitalizing on what seems to be his major strength – being a highly effective bully.  But a bully not in the tradition of the presidency, which is often referred to as having a “bully pulpit,” but a bully that one might have experienced in say grammar school or middle school.

ScreamDuring the campaign for the Republican nomination Trump was relentless in taunting fellow Republican candidates.  After earning the nomination, he was relentless in taunting the Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton.  While in “normal times” one would expect such school-yard tactics to result in a resounding defeat,” Trump won the Electoral College vote even though losing the popular vote by more than three (3) million votes.

As president, Trump has continued to taunt, whether members of his cabinet, members of Congress (including Republicans) and even such allies as Canada, England, Germany and Japan.   The taunting, combined with his apparent disdain for any type of preparedness for any meeting or issue, seems to have great appeal to a hard-core base of white, less educated, lower-income voters.  Trump supporters also include a group of middle-income, mostly white voters, especially Christian conservatives.  While Trump maintains a very high approval rating among Republicans, my belief is the hard-core base is the most likely to start the 5th revolution, the Revenge Revolution.

RevoltWhy expect the hard-core right to revolt?  Aren’t they Trump’s biggest supporters?  Yes, but the hard right will be the most negatively affected by Trump’s policies.  Believe what you will but the coal industry is never coming back.  Use of other fossil fuels is going to drop sharply.  Two of Trump’s favorite industries – steel and aluminum – are highly automated and don’t need many more workers to increase output.

An example of the effect of automation is an industry I know well, the automotive industry.  Compared to when I joined General Motors many years ago, labor content per car/truck has dropped like a rock.  If you want to see the effect of automation, look beyond final assembly, which admittedly has far fewer workers.  Look at labor content in the areas of machining, welding and painting.  All high-paid skilled workers replaced by machines.  The machines don’t take breaks, don’t go on vacation and don’t require health benefits.  Plus the quality using these machines is better.

TractorThe other group likely to revolt is farmers, who also were big Trump supporters.  Exports have become a huge money-maker for family and corporate farms.  Retaliatory tariffs on farm products by China and other nations will decrease demand for soybeans, corn and wheat.  The US produces far more foodstuff than it can possibly consume.  A decrease in farm production translates into a decrease in farm income.

Yes, the hard-core right will be the hardest hit.  But they’re so loyal to Trump…they’re almost fanatical in their support.  Surely they won’t abandon him…will they?  There’s an old saying that might seem sexist but really applies to both genders, “Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned.”

SurpriseOne day in the next five years or so, the hard-core Trumpsters will wake up and realize not only are the promised jobs not coming back but Trump and Congressional Republicans are on a determined path to cut Social Security and Medicare.  Why?  Because the Federal deficit is too high.  Why is the deficit too high?  Because the Trump tax cuts benefitted the rich and the promised “trickle-down” effect never occurred.  Raising taxes on the rich is out of the question, of course, so these “entitlement” programs must be cut.

The idea that tax cuts for the rich somehow stimulate demand the benefits trickle down to the poor has never been demonstrated.  There is no credible empirical evidence supporting the contention.  George H.W. Bush was correct in calling the trickle-down voodoo-2015958theory “voodoo economics.”  Trump’s tax cuts were pure voodoo economics.

So when the hard-core Trumpsters finally awaken and realize they’ve been had by Trump and elected Republicans, what do they do?  They revolt.  How do they revolt?

Exaggerating the truth has a way of coming back to haunt you.  For the last 3-4 decades, Republicans and the NRA have been touting a clearly distorted interpretation of the 2nd Amendment, especially the right to own an assault rifle or high-caliber weapon used only in the military.  In addition, the hyperbole about a “deep state” has encouraged many on the hard-core right to buy additional firearms and stock additional ammunition.  And what’s the consequence?

SoldierAs noted in the early entries to this blog, the scorned (hard right Trumpsters) begin to exact revenge on the more affluent.  How widespread is such an armed revolt?  Hard to predict.  But what I do know is there are not enough police and not enough military personnel to stop geographically dispersed guerilla raids on single homes and/or neighborhoods, especially if invaders are armed with AR15’s and the like.

Well, now you have the update about the premise of the blog — is a 5th revolution in the US likely?  Not a pretty picture but, unfortunately, a 5th US revolution seems more likely every day that Trump is in office.  Further, the disruption caused by Trump will take years to repair.  Even if Trump were removed from office tomorrow, the country might not avoid the revolution.  And, oh by the way Mrs. Lincoln, make sure to enjoy the play.

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