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~ USA Headed for a 5th Revolution! Why?

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Monthly Archives: April 2015

#125 Do They Really Understand? Federal Deficit con’t (Part 5)

23 Thursday Apr 2015

Posted by Jordan Abel in Economics, Education Issues, Societal Issues

≈ Leave a comment

Scene: Jordan and Sandy, a former business colleague, are having coffee.  The discussion begins Entry #121,.  This segment is a continuation of Jordan’s description to Sandy of a conversation with the Speaker of the House and the Senate Majority Leader, which begins Entry #123.

Jordan:  “Feel better, John Boy?”

man_with_speechJohn Boy:  “Much.  Now, now back to the debt to income discussion.”

Mackey:  “OK, so we agree Bill Gates can take on a lot more debt than any one of us because his income is much higher.  What does that mean for the Federal debt?”

Jordan:  “John Boy, you want to explain this to Mackey or you want me to?”

John Boy:  “Let me try.  The simple answer is we should link the amount of Federal debt to Federal income.  The more income the country has, the more debt it can have.”

occupations_lawyerMackey:  “Alright, I understand the concept but what makes up Federal income?”

Jordan:  “Two approaches.  One measure is revenue collected through taxes.  The other measure is gross domestic product, or GDP.  Most measures of debt are against GDP because that represents the income of the country rather than just taxes collected.”

Mackey:  “John Boy, you think GDP is a fair measure.  You can’t trust these liberals to tell you the truth.”

John Boy:  “Relax, both measures have their plusses and minuses but yes, I think debt as percent of GDP is fair.  From what I’ve read, the ratio is used by a wide range of economists, including some of our own.  Let’s stick with debt as a percent of GDP.”

TurtleneckJordan:  “Here’s a question for both of you.  Did debt as a percent of GDP increase more during Bush 43 or Obama?”

Mackey:  “That’s a stupid question.  Obama, of course.  Hands down.”

Jordan:  “John Boy, what do you think – Bush or Obama?”

John Boy:  “I’m afraid to answer because it seems like a trick question.”

Jordan:  “OK, here’s another.  Did the Federal deficit as a percent of GDP increase Reaganmore under FDR – up until WWII – or under Ronald Reagan?”

Mackey:  “I’d like to say another stupid question but now I’m not so sure.”

Jordan:  “We seem to be making progress.”

Mackey:  “You know, Republicans hold up Ronald Reagan as the paragon for fiscal conservatism.  What’s wrong with that assumption?”

Jordan:  “Lots wrong.  One final question for now.  When’s the last time debt as a percent of GDP declined?”

Mackey:  “Under a Republican, of course.”

John Boy:  “Mackey, I think we are in for a rude awakening.”

Jordan:  “Look at my iPad.  Here’s a chart to get us started.  It’s from the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics).”

Jipad-clipart-ipad-user-01ohn Boy:  “Another liberal organization – should be named BS, not BLS.  Just kidding.  I know BLS has been a credible source of data for decades.”

Jordan:  “Look at this chart.  Federal debt as a percent of GDP beginning in 1800.”

Mackey:  “Now we’re talking.  That’s when the US was really a great country – no debt and lots of growth.”

John Boy:  “Mackey, you need to take a close look at this chart.”

Mackey:  “Whoa.  That can’t be right.”

(To be continued)

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#124 Do They Really Understand? Federal Deficit. (Part 4)

19 Sunday Apr 2015

Posted by Jordan Abel in Economics, Education Issues, Societal Issues

≈ Leave a comment

Scene: Jordan and Sandy, a former business colleague, are having coffee.  The discussion begins Entry #121,.  This segment is a continuation of Jordan’s description to Sandy of a conversation with the Speaker of the House and the Senate Majority Leader, which begins Entry #123.

Jordan:  “Waiter, we’d like another round, please.”

Waiter:  “And whose tab should I put this on?”

Jordan:  “Mine, unfortunately.”

man_with_speechJohn Boy:  “Jordan, you have no idea how good this drink tastes since you’re paying for it.”

Mackey:  “You’re not going to charge this to taxpayers, are you?”

Jordan:  “No, Mackey.  Not to worry.  My own money.”

Mackey:  “Now, explain all this accounting stuff.  What does it really mean?”

Jordan:  “Let me ask you.  When you were first married did you buy a house?

Mackey:  “Of course…and proud of it.”

Jordan:  “And did you pay cash for the house?”

occupations_lawyerMackey:  “Are you kidding?  I borrowed all the money I could.”

Jordan:  “What if you were forced to pay cash for the house rather than borrowing?”

Mackey:  “Never could have afforded it.  In fact, we’d probably still be renting.”

John Boy:  “I think I see where you’re headed with this.”

Mackey:  “I don’t see.  Where is this headed?”

Piggy BankJohn Boy:  “Since the government uses ‘piggy bank’ accounting, it appears there is a big deficit when some of the funds are used to buy an asset…something that lasts a long time, like a new house.”

Mackey:  “I still don’t understand what you guys are talking about.”

John Boy:  “Why did the bank lend you money?”

Mackey:  “Because I had a steady income.”

John Boy:  “Did the house you bought cost more than your annual income?”

Mackey:  “Of course…4-5 times more than my income.  What’s wrong with that?”

TurtleneckJordan:  “Nothing wrong.  What if you had to make as much money every year as the house cost?”

Mackey:  “Already told you.  I couldn’t afford the house and probably still be renting.”

John Boy:  “Well, Mackey, old buddy, I can see we have a problem.”

Mackey:  “The problem is the federal budget deficit.”

John Boy:  “It’s not the deficit.  It’s the way we calculate it.  If your personal household used the same accounting method as the government, you would be in a big hole when you bought the house, or even a new car.  If there were a Constitutional ?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????Amendment forcing a balanced budget, you never would have bought your house, or even that new car.”

Jordan:  “And most businesses would never have gotten started.”

Mackey:  “I think I’m getting this.  And boy, am I glad we are off camera.  We are off camera, aren’t we Jordan?”

Jordan:  “No recording, no notes, no record, just an informal chat.”

Mackey:  “Quite honestly, I just never appreciated…really never understood…the difference in accounting methods.  By the way, what’s the other accounting method called?”

Jordan:  “For the record, accrual accounting.  And ‘piggy bank’ accounting is really man_with_piggy_bank_2called ‘cash’ accounting but piggy bank is easier to understand.”

John Boy:  “Jordan, at some point you have to pay off your debts.  We paid off the loans on our house.”

Jordan:  “Are you completely out of debt?  I mean debt other than credit cards.”

John Boy:  “No, not really.”

Mackey:  “And neither am I.”

Jordan:  “You’re not alone.  Most people, even those who’ve paid off their house, are in the same boat.  So, some debt seems OK?”

John Boy and Mackey (in unison):  “Of course.”

Jordan:  “What about the amount of debt?  Does that matter?”

Mackey:  “All depends on income.”

bill_gatesJordan:  “So you think Bill Gates could take on more debt than say I could.”

Mackey:  “That seems like another stupid question.  Of course Gates could handle more debt than you.  What’s your point?”

John Boy:  “His point, if I understand correctly, is the amount of debt should be measured against income or wealth, not just the amount of debt per se.”

Mackey:  “So $100 million of debt for you Jordan, might seem like a lot…”

Jordan:  “Excuse me Mackey?  Me with $100 million debt?  That’s a dream.  A debt of $1.0 million or even less would seem like a big deal.”

Money-clip-artMackey:  “As I was saying, $100 million debt might seem like a lot of debt to Jordan but not to Bill Gates.  Is that your point?”

Jordan:  “Exactly my point.  The measurement should be the amount of debt relative to income or wealth, not just the amount of debt.”

John Boy:  “Jordan, the way this discussion is headed you might make meaning less the argument that the federal debt is too high.”

Jordan:  “I wouldn’t say ‘meaningless’ but certainly citing the amount of debt as a scream-1-1024scare tactic becomes a lot less impactful or rational…if people understand.”

John Boy:  “Mackey, why did we agree to talk to this guy?  He’s starting to ruin my day…even more than my golf game.  But, I really want to learn more about the relationship of debt to income…after a break.  Be right back.”

(To be continued.)

#123 Do They Really Understand? The Impact of Accounting on Federal Deficit. (Part 3)

16 Thursday Apr 2015

Posted by Jordan Abel in Economics, Education Issues, Possible Solutions

≈ 7 Comments

Scene: Jordan and Sandy, a former business colleague, are having coffee.  The discussion, which began Entry #121, has centered on Sandy’s frustration with Federal government policies and Jordan’s attempt to explain the rationale and benefit of certain policies – politely, why Sandy’s thinking is incorrect.

Sandy:  “OK, Jordan, we’ve had our break.  Now let’s get back to the federal budget.  Why can’t we have an amendment to make sure it’s balanced every year?”

hunterJordan:  “You sound like some Tea Party Republican.”

Sandy:  “Well, that’s what I am.  So why not?”

Jordan:  “In an attempt to answer your question, I’m going to tell you a story.”

Sandy:  “Typical bureaucrat.  Never…and I mean never…gets to the point.  OK, I’ll be nice and listen.  What’s little Jordan’s story?”

Jordan:  “You would have enjoyed what happened to me the other day.  I was playing golf…”

Sandy:  “Excuse me, playing golf is a waste of time.  It’s the only game I know where people who play less are happier than those who play more.  You’d think if you were spending all that money for a round of golf, you’d want to hit the ball more times, not less.  Yes, I’ll be quiet.  What’s the story?”

TurtleneckJordan:  “I was playing in a charity tournament and lo and behold, whom do I meet in the locker room afterwards but two of your favorite people.”

Sandy:  “I cannot imagine since the people I like would be at the shooting range, not the golf course.  Who?”

Jordan:  “The Speaker of the House and Senate Majority Leader.”

Sandy:  “You’re kidding.  You guys pal around with each other?”

Jordan:  “Hardly.  Remember, I said this was a charity golf tournament.”

Sandy:  “That is interesting.  What happened?”

Jordan:  “Finally, he’s willing to listen.  I’ll tell the story as best I remember it.  Here goes.”

The following is Jordan’s dialogue explaining the encounter.  Scene: in the locker room after the tournament.

CongressJordan:  (Addressing the Speaker of the House and the Senate Majority Leader) “Gentlemen, what a pleasant surprise.”

Speaker of the House (aka, John Boy):  “Well, well, well, if it isn’t one of POTUS’ lackeys, Jordan Abel.”

Jordan:  “Thanks for the compliment, John Boy.  Glad you are so supportive of people who try to help.”

Senate Majority Leader (aka, Mackey): Forgive him Jordan, he had a bad round of golf.  I’m glad to see you…well, sort of.”

Jordan:  “By the way, what I have ever done to you guys?”

John Boy:  “It’s not you, Jordan.  Your boss is the problem.”

Jordan:  “OK, what’s the issue?”

Mackey:  “Where do we start?  The list if issues is very long.”

man_with_speechJohn Boy:  “First of all, why won’t he cooperate?  He’s like a rock.”

Jordan:  “What do you mean?  Give me an example.”

Mackey:  “You buy us a drink and we’ll talk.  Deal?”

Jordan:  “Deal.  (Order drinks.)  OK, give me a couple of issues.”

Mackey:  “Environmental stuff.  POTUS keeps pushing to reduce coal consumption.  Why?  We need more coal, not less.”

Jordan:  “You mean your constituents like coal because they think it means jobs.”

Mackey:  “Coal equals jobs.”

Jordan:  “Mackey, you and I both know that the coal industry has far fewer jobs per ton mined than it used to.”

Mackey:  “But we can’t lose those jobs that are left.  And POTUS is a major threat to those jobs.  What’s wrong with him?”

Jordan:  “What if there were a way to create jobs and reduce coal production?”

Mackey:  “Sounds like some liberal gibberish.  We need coal.”

Jordan:  “What about emissions from coal?  What about scarring the land?””

occupations_lawyerMackey:  “More liberal gibberish, Jordan.  You just don’t understand.  Quit being so rigid and uncompromising.”

Jordan:  “Think I’ll probably have another drink.  John Boy, what’s your issue?”

John Boy:  “Budget.  We need a balanced budget.  In fact, we should have a Constitutional Amendment requiring a balanced budget.”

Mackey:  “I agree.  The country is going to run out of money.”

Jordan:  “Excuse me?  Run out of money?  How?”

John Boy:  “You know what I mean.  The country cannot afford all this debt.”

Jordan:  “Tell me why not.”

John Boy:  “The private sector pays its debts.  Why shouldn’t the government?”

debtJordan:  “You really think the private sector pays its debt?”

Mackey:  “Of course it does.”

Jordan:  “Mackey, you’ve been inhaling too much coal dust.  Most private debt debt…commercial anyway…is rolled over and new debt issued.”

John Boy:  “C’mon, Jordan.  Stop the BS.”

Jordan:  “Really, think about this.  Do financial institutions ever…and I mean ever…pay off their debt?  No.  They merely issue new bonds.”

John Boy:  “But the private sector has collateral backing their debt and the government.  So another liberal lie.”

Jordan:  “So you’re claiming the government has no assets?  What about all the land, buildings and equipment it owns?  You don’t think those are assets?”

John Boy:  “I’ll be honest with you since we are off camera – I never thought about government debt being backed by collateral.”

Mackey:  “Frankly, I hadn’t either.  Wonder why no one explains the debt structure the way you just did?”

Piggy BankJordan:  “Part of it is the problem is the approach to accounting – and I’m not talking about counting beans.  Unlike private industry, the government is forced to use what I call “piggy bank” accounting.  Piggy bank accounting is just like it sounds – how much cash goes in the piggy bank and how much is taken out.  Does not matter that the money went to buy something that will last say 50 years?  You have to account for it all right now.”

John Boy:  “Accounting.  I almost failed that and I only had one semester.”

Jordan:  “Remember debits on the window side and credits on the chalkboard side.”

John Boy:  “How’d you know?”

BeanCounterMackey:  “OK, while we’re confessing, I don’t understand accounting either.  But what real difference does some accounting system make?  A bunch of bean counter stuff.  The government should not run a deficit.”

John Boy:  “You know, I never thought I would say this but Mackey, let the man explain.  We might learn something.”

(To be continued)

#122 Do They Really Understand? (Part 2)

11 Saturday Apr 2015

Posted by Jordan Abel in Education Issues, Societal Issues

≈ Leave a comment

 

(Readers: The blog centers around the author’s prediction that the US will experience a 5th revolution by 2020-2025.  Some early vignettes precede the revolution; later vignettes follow the revolution.  Many characters appear regularly.  More about the blog and the author.)

Scene: Jordan having coffee with former business colleague, who is in Washington to testify about oil and drilling.  Conversation about difference between reporting and editorials continues.  (Part 1 is entry #121.)

Jordan:  “Well, Sandy, feel better now that you have more coffee?”

Shunterandy:  “Yes, but those northeast liberals are still screwed up.”

Jordan:  “Sometimes you are like a dog on a bone.  I thought this conversation was about the difference between reporting the news and writing editorials.”

Sandy:  “OK, back to that Krugman guy.  You’re telling me he is not really a reporter for the NYT?”

Jordan:  “Yes, he is not.”

Sandy:  “Yes, he is not.  What kind of statement is that?  Can’t you say ‘yes’ or ‘no’?”

JTurtleneckordan:  “If I answered ‘no’ to your question, which is what I think you expected, then he would be a reporter for the NYT.  That’s why I answered ‘yes’ he is not.”

Sandy:  “No wonder I can’t stand Washington.  At one time, Jordan, I could understand you.  Now you speak in Beltway gibberish.”

Jordan:  “I’m not trying to be a smartass…”

Sandy:  “…for once…”

Jordan:  “…but the way you asked the question was backwards.  Just trying to make sure I answered the question properly.”

Sandy:  “OK, pardon me for my limited English skills.  Hey, I’m a science guy, not some pointed-headed liberal arts major.”

Jordan:  “Back to the topic.”

Sandy:  “You’re telling me Krugman and guys like him who write those articles…”

Jordan:  “…opinion pieces…”

Sandy:  “…opinion pieces…those guys are not really reporters.”

Jreporter on typewriter clipartordan:  “Reporters report the news without editorializing.”

Sandy:  “But doesn’t the NYT have a liberal bias.  My sources call it part of the drive-by media.”

Jordan:  “I’ll ignore the drive-by media comment.  Look, everyone and every organization has some bias.”

Sandy:  “I knew I was right.”

Jordan:  “Sandy, put on your grown-up pants and think about this.  Everyone has some bias but good media organizations work very hard to minimize the bias.”

Sthe-new-york-times1andy:  “How do you know the NYT is not overly biased?”

Jordan:  “Here’s a way to answer that question.  Pick a few topics you know something about.  And I’m talking about topics you really know and not topics where you got some information off the internet.”

Sandy:  “I’ve got a couple of topics.  Then what?”

Jordan:  “Then read some articles about those topics.  Articles published by the NYT and articles published by other sources, including some of your internet sources.  Then compare the objectivity of the articles.”

Sandy:  “Mmmm, that’s an approach I never thought about.”

Jordan:  “Spend some time and dig into the articles.  Are the key facts correct?  Are the articles objective?  One caution.”

Sandy:  “Of course.  What?  Some excuse for your liberal sources?”

Jordan:  “You don’t quit do you?  If you choose topics that you really know…like some Fact checkof what you studied…then don’t get upset when the reporter doesn’t get all the facts exactly right.  Getting key facts correct is critical but being perfect on all the nits and gnats is not so critical.”

Sandy:  “I hear you.  It’s taken me a long time to really understand this stuff.  The reporter can’t be an expert at everything.”

Jordan:  “Now, may we take another break?  I need to make a quick phone call.  Then we can talk about the Federal budget and the money supply.”

Sandy:  “OK.  But don’t be gone too long.”

#121 Do They Really Understand? (Part 1)

07 Tuesday Apr 2015

Posted by Jordan Abel in Causes of the Revolution, Economics

≈ 10 Comments

(Readers: The blog centers around the author’s prediction that the US will experience a 5th revolution by 2020-2025.  Some early vignettes precede the revolution; later vignettes follow the revolution.  Many characters appear regularly.  More about the blog and the author.)

Scene: Jordan runs into former work colleague at coffee shop near office.

Jordan:  “Sandy, great to see you.  What brings you to Washington?”

Shunterandy:  “Not here by choice.  You know how I hate this place.  And, yes, nice to see you, too, Jordan.”

Jordan:  “Well, why are you here?  Gun show?”

Sandy:  “You’re funny.  Or at least you attempt to be funny sometimes.  You know there are no gun shows in DC.  Would make it too easy to wipe out stupid legislators.  I’m here to testify why a new drilling technique for oil and gas is not harmful to the environment.”

Jordan:  “Sounds like fun to me.  You’re the right guy to be testifying.”

Sandy:  “Testifying will be about as much fun as going to the dentist.  Remember when I had two root canals and a bunch of other work done?”

Jordan:  “How can I forget?  You were not a happy camper.”

Sdentist clipartandy:  “Think I would rather go back to the dentist than testify.  Most of the people in Washington are idiots…at least the dentist is reasonably smart.”

Jordan:  “Glad to see you haven’t lightened up, even after the Revenge Revolution.”

Sandy:  “Another smartass comment.  Well, these people are idiots.  Most of them have no idea what they’re talking about.”

Jordan:  “OK, I agree many legislators are not well versed on some key topics but give me some of your examples.”

Scheckbook2andy:  “Let’s start with the budget. Why does the Federal budget always have to be in the red?  The budget should be balanced, just my household budget is balanced…or our company budget is balanced.”

Jordan:  “What else?”

Sandy:  “Why can the government print money without any backing?  US currency is like vaporware – nothing there.”

Jordan:  “One more.”

Sandy:  “Only one?  I could go on for weeks.  Why do we still have Obamacare?  The Democrats rammed that down our throats.”

Jordan:  “Alright, let’s start with Obamacare.  You realize that Obamacare…really the Adoctor-clipart-illustration-31325ffordable Care Act…was designed by and implemented first by Republicans.”

Sandy:  “What?  Obamacare was designed by Republicans?  And implemented where by Republicans?”

Jordan:  “Designed by Republicans to ensure private insurance companies continued to receive premiums and continued to operate.  The Republicans plan was implemented by Mitt Romney when he was governor of Massachusetts.”

Sandy:  “Really?  I did not know that.”  (BTW, actual quote.)

Jordan:  “Sandy, you’re a smart guy.  I can’t believe you did not know that.  Where are you getting your information?  Fox News and the internet?”

Sandy:  “Both sources, but mostly the web.”

Jordan:  “If you are still looking at some of those sites you used to send me links to, I suggest you rethink your sources.  You need more credible information.”

Sthe-new-york-times1andy:  “Like that liberal rag you read, the New York Times?”

Jordan:  “Sandy, Sandy, such venom.  You might not like some of the Times’ editorials…if you’ve ever read any…but unlike some of your sources, the NYT has a clear separation between reporting and editorials.”

Sandy:  “It’s all the same to me.”

Jordan:  “And I think not understanding or appreciating the distinction is a major problem.  People seem to have a hard time…or maybe refuse to separate reporting and editorial comments.”

Sandy:  “What’s really the difference?  I know that might sound stupid but no one ever explained the difference to me.”

Jordan:  “Good question.  For many years I thought everyone understood the difference…but obviously not.”

Sandy:  “Ok, so tell me.”

Jordan:  “The staff reporting the news is separated from the editorial staff.  In large reporter on typewriter clipartpapers…New York Times, for example…the management of the news reporting is completely separate from the editorial side.  Really two separate organizations.  The editorial board has no control over what is reported in the news section.”

Sandy:  “As simple as this sounds, you’re saying the news is reported by, well, reporters.  What about the articles on the editorial page?  Don’t the reporters write those?”

Jordan:  “Reporters do not write stories on the editorial page or the Op-Ed page…you know, the page opposite editorials.  Many of those articles are written by what you might call free-lance writers.”

122213_1311_9Guruandthe2.jpgSandy:  “You mean like that Paul Krugman guy?  He’s a reporter for the NYT, right?”

Jordan:  “No, Paul Krugman he is a professor of economics.  In fact he was a graduate student at MIT when I was there.  He then taught at Princeton.  By the way, he also won the Nobel Prize in economics.”

Sandy:  “You listen to too many of those Northeast liberals.  Those guys are all alike.  No wonder you’re so screwed up.  I need a refill.”

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