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~ USA Headed for a 5th Revolution! Why?

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Monthly Archives: April 2017

#247 Who Took Out Howdy Doody…err the Donald? (Part 4)

30 Sunday Apr 2017

Posted by Jordan Abel in Lessons of Revolution, Societal Issues

≈ Leave a comment

First-time readers, the dialogue in this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020).  Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution.  More about Revenge Revolution and author, Entry #1.  List and general description of entries to date.  Annual assessment if Revolution plausible.

Note: most characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations.  Profile of characters.  You’ll catch on quickly.  Thanks for your time and interest…and comments.

Scene: Gelly, JC and Greenie having drinks with Jordan following a session in Jordan’s office.  Conversation starts Entry #244.

Waiter: “Would you folks like to order some food?”

Waiter 2JC:  “Yes, we would…right Jordan?”

Greenie:  “I agree, although I’d prefer some hors d’oeuvres to a full dinner.”

Jordan:  “So what do you guys want?”

Waiter takes order.

Gelly:  “I’m still a bit confused about who took out the Donald.”

Greenie:  “Do you agree it probably wasn’t the North Koreans or the Mexican drug lords?”

Gelly:  “Yes, either one of those groups seems unlikely, now, although I must say both seemed to be reasonable candidates at first.”

Greenie:  “Then if we stick to our list, that leaves the Russians or someone, some group inside the US government.”

Water BugGelly:  “I guess that’s what’s confusing me.  I agree Trump was like a water bug when it came to international policies – he’d head off in one direction one second and then quickly shift to another direction.  But other than some blustery talk about bombing North Korea and the infamous wrong-way destroyer claim, he never caused any turbulence below the surface.  The diplomats and the professionals somehow handled the foreign-policy issues.”

JC:  “So you think the real danger was on the domestic side…to US citizens and the fabric of the country, right?”

092615_2031_Characters7.gifGelly:  “Seems to me that some of the Trump proposals, if implemented as drafted, would have completely split the country.  Even though some of the crazier the ideas were eventually watered down, we still had the Revenge Revolution.  Just how much carnage would there have been if had not been taken out?”

JC:  “Jordan, your turn.  You’ve been awfully quiet.”

Jordan:  “I agree the damage domestically could have been much worse had the Donald stayed in office.  Not worse than nuclear war, which I thought we might have for a while.  Fortunately, some cooler heads among the military top brass really got control of the all the nasty weapons.”

Howdy-DoodyGelly:  “Ya’ know, it’s probably not fair, but when I think of Trump as president I think of Howdy Doody.”

Greenie:  “That’s great.  Howdy Doody…and with a bad haircut!  What a great picture.  Now, as I think about it, I can’t decide whether to laugh or cry.  Maybe I should do both.”

JC:  “Back to you Jordan.  You’re a big dog inside the Beltway.  I mean you get calls from POTUS, visit the White House.  What really went on?”

Jordan:  “I was not part of the ‘in’ crowd during the Trump Administration.”

JC:  “C’mon.  Staffers and guys like you all know one another.  What went on?  Who took him out?”

Jordan:  “I’ll give you my take but your buddy here, Greenie, might know more than I do.  She’s the real insider.”

092615_2031_Characters2.jpgGreenie:  “Thanks for the compliment…but it’s been a while since I was an insider.  Anyway, I want to hear your take.”

Jordan:  “I think Gelly’s right.  Trump was like Howdy Doody.  A small group of puppeteers were pulling the strings and he would react accordingly…often without thinking or even understanding.”

Gelly:  “I know I said Howdy Doody, but wasn’t he smart enough to realize what was going on?”

Jordan:  “I don’t know what his IQ was but I do know he was woefully uneducated about a wide range of subjects…and especially about government.  I’m not sure he even read, let alone opened, the Constitution.  His knowledge of geography was breathtakingly and embarrassingly awful.”

Gelly:  “Didn’t he have an MBA from some top school?  What was the name of it?”

JC:  “Wharton.”

Gelly:  “That’s it, Wharton.  I remember he claimed he graduated first in his class.”

092615_2031_Characters1.jpgJC:  “Maybe first in not studying and first in narcissism.  But he’s no one’s academic.  And I’m sure Wharton would rather not admit he’s an alum.”

Greenie:  “You know the tell-tale signs of his lack of education were his statements that ‘Who knew health care could be so complicated?’ and ‘Being president is more difficult than I imagined.’”

JC:  “Duh, Donald, you been living in a cave?  What really scared me was I’m not sure he had any idea of what was really going on…other than playing golf at Mar-a-Lago.”

Greenie:  “Then the Howdy Doody president introduces two absolutely off-the-wall proposals – replacement for Obamacare and a tax plan.  Both would have resulted in huge transfers of wealth to the already wealthy, including the Donald.”

Gelly:  “What about letting oil and gas companies drill willy-nilly on public land?  We sure didn’t need any more oil or gas.”

Greenie:  “He claimed his actions were for job creation.  That claim was a ruse, if he ever understood what he was proposing.”

JC:  “Back to you, again, Jordan.  Who took him out?  If not the CIA, who else should we put on the list?”

Waiter: “Excuse me.  Here’s your hors d’oeuvres.”

TurtleneckJordan (to waiter):  “Thank you.  Just one check and give it to me, please.”

JC:  “Thanks Jordan but just because we’ve got food and you picked up the tab doesn’t mean you’re off the hook.  Who besides the CIA could have done it?”

Jordan:  “What I heard is a couple of black-hole guys directed by the top-level adults inside NSA.”

Gelly:  “If that’s the case, what happened to the Secret Service?”

Jordan:  “They were likely told to discreetly disappear for a few minutes.”

gangster-cartoon-clip-art-540pxJC:  “More like, if you don’t disappear voluntarily, then you, too, will disappear.”

Jordan:  “I suspect that’s about how the conversation went.  Greenie, what have you heard?”

Greenie:  “I’d say your story’s about right.”

JC:  “Unfortunately, taking out the Donald didn’t stop the Revenge Revolution.”

Greenie:  “But as we talked about, can you imagine how much worse it would have been had he stayed in office?  I shudder to think of it.”

Voice: “Folks, you’re right about how bad it could have been.  But some of your story is wrong.”

(Continued)

 

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#246 Who Took Out the Donald? (Part 3)

23 Sunday Apr 2017

Posted by Jordan Abel in Gov't Policy, Lessons of Revolution, Societal Issues, Stupid Is as Stupid Does

≈ Leave a comment

First-time readers, the dialogue in this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020).  Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution.  More about Revenge Revolution and author, Entry #1.  List and general description of entries to date.  Annual assessment if Revolution plausible.

Note: most characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations.  Profile of characters.  You’ll catch on quickly.  Thanks for your time and interest…and comments.

Scene: Gelly, JC and Greenie having drinks with Jordan following a session in Jordan’s office.  Conversation starts Entry #244.

WaiterWaiter delivers a round of drinks.

Greenie:  “I have a request, please.”

JC:  “And that is…?”

Greenie:  “Before we get mired in more Beltway BS, I’d like to propose a toast to the Steak & Shake and the Custard Cup.”

Custard CupGelly:  “Huh?  A toast?  I’ve heard of Steak & Shake…in fact I’ve eaten there…but the Custard Cup?  What’s that?”

Jordan:  “The Custard Cup is a mom-and-pop ice cream stand.  But not just any mom-and-pop ice cream stand.  It has the best…all caps on ‘THE’…best ice cream I’ve had anywhere, period.”

JC:  “I agree.  Even though I’m not an ice cream fan…”

Greenie:  “…can you believe it, she doesn’t like ice cream.”

092615_2031_Characters1.jpgJC:  “As I was saying, even though I’m not a big ice cream fan, the Custard Cup is king of the ice-cream hill.”

Gelly:  “So where is this joint?”

Greenie:  “Ice cream stand, please.  Custard Cup is not a joint.  The Custard Cup is a couple of blocks from where JC grew up.  In fact it was well within a mile of where Jordan lived and where I lived growing up.”

Gelly:  “So a neighborhood hangout, huh?”

Jordan:  “More than the neighborhood.”

122913_1337_14BringingU2.pngGreenie:  “A toast to the Steak & Shake and especially the Custard Cup.”

Jordan:  “Hear, hear.”

JC:  “Alright, now that the sidebar is over, back to the mystery of who took out the Donald.”

092615_2031_Characters2.jpgGreenie:  “Ya know, I think it’s the group we’d rather not think about.”

Jordan:  “You mean not the Russians, not the North Koreans, and not the Mexican drug lords.”

JC:  “You’re thinking inside job?”

Greenie:  “I’m still not sure about the Russians but the more I think about it, the North Koreans and Mexican drug lords seem out of the picture.”

Jordan:  “Why’d you drop them from the list?”

Looney TunesGreenie:  “Had the Trump Administration not acted like Looney Tunes characters, I would have left them on the list.  But behavior by the Trump family…and even by some of the so-called adults on the Cabinet was so unprofessional.  Bizarre is not the right word, because it was worse than bizarre.  But I can’t think of the right word.””

Gelly:  “You think there was an incident that tipped the scale for the CIA…or whoever the responsible inside group was?”

Greenie:  “Yes, and I’m not sure the public appreciated the significance of how the event affected the country’s credibility among world leaders, friend and foe.”

JC:  “What was the event?”

Greenie:  “In my view, for the serious government officials who actually help protect the country, the scales tipped when the Trump Administration…the president, the Secretary of Defense and the head of the National Security Agency…I’ll ignore press secretary…all claimed that the aircraft carrier what’s-its-name was part of an armada ‘steaming’ toward North Korea when actually it was ‘steaming’ away from North Korea toward Australia.”    

JC:  “I agree, Greenie.  That erroneous claim had to be one of the biggest screw-ups in American history.  The statements were not an intentional lie to deceive the enemy, like you might have had in WWII.  These guys were trying to intimidate North Korea but just did not know what was going on.”

092615_2031_Characters7.gifGelly:  “That was really a ‘duh’ moment for me and I suspect many people.  It’s not as if there was no way to track the aircraft carrier and what, a couple of destroyers?  I mean, doesn’t the US have satellites, airplanes and even such low-tech things called radios?”

JC:  “Jordan, you’ve been around these beltway guys for a while.  You’ve even been in the White House.  What were these guys thinking?  No one checked to make sure the claim was right?  You’re pronouncing to the world a major strike force is headed to North Korea and no one checks the facts?  Even worse, when they did find out the mistake, no one corrected it publicly.”

Aircraft CarrierJordan:  “Must have been an interesting conversation in the Oval Office after someone pointed out the mistake.  ‘Let’s see, if we just ignore telling the public we made a mistake, no one will find out.  Those ships are in a big ocean.  Who’s going to see them?’”

JC:  “That might have worked when countries had an armada, as the Donald called it…but not in the 21st Century.  C’mon guys.  Wake up.”

Greenie:  “Ok, we need to ask if there was a tipping point other than the claims about the wrong-way armada.  What about a series of events that might have tipped the scales?”

TurtleneckJordan:  “I suppose one could point to any number of single events or series of events demonstrating stupid-is-as-stupid-does behavior.  But I think for most people, there’s usually a single incident that tips the scale.”    

Greenie:  “I agree.  Think about relationships with other people, feelings about a restaurant…whatever.  You go along and go along with a less-than-satisfactory relationship and then at some point you say to yourself, ‘Enough, already.  No more.’”

Jordan:  “And, I agree the wrong-way armada was probably what triggered the CIA to take action.”

JC:  “Bad pun, Jordan.”

Waiter: “Would you folks like to order some food?”

#245 Trump Taken Out – Why? Follow the Money (Part 2)

16 Sunday Apr 2017

Posted by Jordan Abel in Lessons of Revolution, Societal Issues

≈ Leave a comment

First-time readers, the dialogue in this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020).  Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution.  More about Revenge Revolution and author, Entry #1.  List and general description of entries to date.  Annual assessment if Revolution plausible.

Note: most characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations.  Profile of characters.  You’ll catch on quickly.  Thanks for your time and interest…and comments.

Scene: Gelly, JC and Greenie having drinks with Jordan following a session in Jordan’s office.  Conversation starts Entry #244.

092615_2031_Characters2.jpgGreenie:  “Jordan, if you don’t mind, I’d like to continue the conversation we began at the  office.  You know lots of the ins and outs of Washington…so why did the Donald get taken out?”

Jordan:  “Greenie, you’re more of an insider than I am.”

JC:  “Jordan, quit stalling and just answer Greenie’s question, please.”

Gelly:  “Yes, please.  I’m interested, too.”

092615_2031_Characters7.gifJordan:  “Simple.  Well, maybe not so simple…but easy to understand.  It’s the old adage of ‘Just follow the money.’”

Greenie:  “You think Trump was on the take when he was president?  Surely not.”

Jordan:  “Unlikely he was on the take per se…like Flynn and Manafort were on the take.  But Trump was up to his eyeballs in debt.”

Gelly:  “I thought he was some kind of billionaire several times over.  I mean with all those hotels and properties that he owned.”

092615_2031_Characters1.jpgJC:  “I hear you Jordan.  How much do you think he owed on those properties…and to whom?”

Greenie:  “A lot of the stories written long before he became a presidential candidate suggest his record as a developer was questionable at best.  How many times did he go bankrupt?  And didn’t he stiff a bunch of major US banks?”

JC:  “Why didn’t he ever release his tax returns?  The excuse about being audited was sheer baloney.  Besides why didn’t he release his 2016 return when he sent it in?  The IRS doesn’t start any audit until you file a return.”

irs-logoGelly:  “So you guys think he was heavily in debt.  If so, like JC said, money owed to whom?”

Jordan:  “I realize it’s a while ago but think back before the election in 2016.  There was strong evidence of people involved in the transition had links to Russian banks and to the Bank of Cyprus, which was notorious at the time as a haven for laundering money.”

Cypress BankJC:  “What was that guy on the transition team who had been some high-level dude at Bank of Cyprus?”

Greenie:  “That guy became what was it…Secretary of…?”

Jordan:  “…Commerce.  You mean Wilbur Ross?”

Greenie:  “That’s the guy.”

donald-trumpGelly:  “Then are you saying then that the Russians took out Trump?”

Jordan:  “Not necessarily.  As JC said in the office, the Russians had the Donald by the short hairs.”

Greenie:  “Really, JC, such a nice girl like you.  You need to clean up your language.”

JC:  “What else do you want to call it?  It’s true.”

Gelly:  “If the Russians took him out, then wouldn’t they would lose their leverage with him?  Plus, maybe never get their money?”

Greenie:  “Agree, except maybe they still had their leverage.”

Gelly:  “I don’t get what you mean?”

Greenie:  “Remember a couple of months into the term when he did 180 degree turn on the Russians?  In just a few days the Russian went from good guys to bad guys…or at least that’s what the Administration wanted us to think.”

PutinJordan:  “Good point, Greenie.  I’ve always been suspicious about the sudden change in attitude.  And, then, within a day or so of the change in attitude, Secretary of State Tillerson is at the Kremlin and has a private, unscheduled, undocumented two-hour meeting with Putin.  That meeting doesn’t smell right.  How much of a bad-ass could Tillerson have been?  Just a couple of years before, Putin gave Tillerson a Russian Order of Friendship medal.”

JC:  “Whatever the Administration was trying to do, one thing’s for certain.  Trump was like a spinning top.  He changed positions constantly.  We never knew where he stood…or what he was thinking.”

Gelly:  “Or even if he was thinking.”

TurtleneckJordan:  “Good one Gelly.”

Greenie:  “I agree Trump’s change of position on the Russians might have been a diversion.  Think about the growing pressure from the investigations into Russian influence on the election.  The Senate’s investigation was just starting.  He had every reason to try to make Congress and the public think he was being tough on the Russians.”

JC:  “Let’s say the diversionary tactic was true.  But what happens if the Donald then balks at paying his debt?  If he balks, then the Russians lose very little by talking him out?”

Gelly:  “Seems to me that once he realized he could use the military to his advantage – look at how he puffed up his chest using the military in Syria and to threaten North Korea – maybe he thought he could intimidate the Russians as well…and then he could walk away from the debt without any consequence.”

Mickey-Mouse-fingerJordan:  “I agree he might have thought he could give the proverbial finger to the Russians and walk away…but that’s not how it works.”

Waiter:  “Excuse me, folks, would you care for another round of wine?”

(To be continued.)

 

#244 Recall When the Donald Was Taken Out

09 Sunday Apr 2017

Posted by Jordan Abel in Causes of the Revolution, Lessons of Revolution, Societal Issues

≈ 16 Comments

First-time readers, the dialogue in this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020).  Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution.  More about Revenge Revolution and author, Entry #1.  List and general description of entries to date.  Annual assessment if Revolution plausible.

Note: most characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations.  Profile of characters.  You’ll catch on quickly.  Thanks for your time and interest…and comments.

Scene: Jordan’s office, Washington, DC.

092615_2031_Characters7.gifGelly:  “Jordan, the dynamic duo is here to see you – JC and Greenie.”

Jordan:  “Well, well, well.  What a surprise.  What brings you two?  Pleasantries, I hope.”

JC:  “Not really.”

Greenie:  “Pardon the manners of my buddy.  Jordan, nice to see you.  Do you have a few minutes for us, please?”

Jordan:  “Of course.  Something happen?  You guys look a bit troubled.”

092615_2031_Characters2.jpgGreenie:  “I’m visiting JC for a few days.  She offered to edit some of my articles on the cause of the Revenge Revolution.”

JC:  “So last night we finish the edits, then pour a couple glasses of wine and watch a movie.”

Greenie:  “But not just any movie.  A classic…’Caine Mutiny.’”

Jordan:  “Great movie.  But so…?”

092615_2031_Characters1.jpgJC:  “So…Jordan, does Captain Queeg’s behavior in Caine Mutiny remind you of anybody who used to be in Washington…you know, like…”

Jordan:  “…like the Donald?  Pardon me, president Trump.”

Greenie:  “That’s what we thought too.  Just that association brought back memories of the early days of the Trump Administration.  Watching the characters in the White House was like watching Looney Tunes.”

Looney TunesJC:  “I’d forgotten how wacko those guys in the White House really were…starting with the Donald.”

Greenie:  “Rather than looking for missing strawberries, old president Queeg was looking for 3 million, no 5 million missing votes.”

JC:  “When Queeg couldn’t find the missing votes, he claimed some other bizarre event…like his phone at Queeg Tower being tapped by president Obama.”

trump-scowlGreenie:  “When there was no evidence of a wiretap, he claimed the former Attorney General broke the law by doing her job and should be put in jail.”

JC:  “All the time, of course Trump was denying there was any contact between his campaign and the Russians, despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.”

Confused Clip ArtGreenie:  “Finally, Queeg appoints his wet-behind-the-ears son-in-law as executive officer in charge of the ship…and also appoints the pretty-face, but ‘not-the-brightest bulb’ daughter, as key advisor.”

Jordan:  “I’d forgotten how depressing and dangerous that situation was.  Queeg, the White House staff really…even many of the cabinet members had no clue.  I remember thinking these guys must have been charter members of the Incompetents Club and got together at some of the club’s meetings.”

dunce capsGreenie:  “Queeg….I mean Trump was really dangerous.  What I think was even worse – a lot of supposedly responsible people, including Republican leadership in the House and Senate….didn’t want to admit how much Queeg and staff really were out of control.”

JC:  “So now you see why we’re upset?”

Jordan:  “Yes, but that was some years ago.”

JC:  “Jordan, didn’t you see what was really happening with Trump?”

Jordan:  “I saw it.  It was just hard to believe and even harder to swallow.”

Greenie:  “And probably easier to pretend it wasn’t really happening.”

JC:  “Greenie, in fairness to Jordan, I’d like to tell you about a conversation he and I had during the early days of Queeg’s Administration.  At the time I promised not to repeat it.  Jordan, is it OK if I tell her?”

Jordan:  “No harm now since its history.”

Greenie:  “What are you guys talking about?”

JC begins to repeat a conversation she had with Jordan in spring 2017

Jordan:  “JC, what do you suggest we do about the Trump Administration?  It seems out of control…and incredibly dangerous.”

JC:  “You’re asking me?  I thought you were one of the muckety mucks inside the Beltway.  You tell me what we should do.”

TurtleneckJordan:  “Well, I really hate to say this…I mean I’d better think about it.”

JC:  “Quit stammering.  What are you trying to say?  Spit it out.”

Jordan:  “The only way this chaos in the White House is going to get resolved is by…by taking him out of office.”

JC:  “You mean ‘taking him out’ the way I think you mean ‘taking him out’?”

Jordan:  “Unfortunately, yes.”

JC:  “Who’s going to do it?”

Jordan:  “My view there are three likely players…hit people if you will.”

PutinJC:  “Let me guess.  One is the Russians, which seems like an obvious choice.  From what I can tell, they have him by the short hairs.”

Jordan:  “Such a diplomat.”

JC:  “Well, it’s true.  How much money does he really owe them?  And what else do they have on him?  Plus, Putin does not play nice.  Another candidate is the North Koreans.  Kim what’s his name seems as bad a Putin…maybe worse.  How many family members has he killed?”

Jordan:  “OK, who’s number 3?”

JC:  “Mexican drug dudes.  These guys are ruthless and have no compulsion about taking out family members, which unfortunately puts Melania and Baron at risk as well.”

Jordan:  “The Mexicans were not on my list.  You’re right, they should be.”

JC:  “Then who’s your number 3…now number 4?”

Jordan:  “That’s what bothers me the most.”

CIAJC:  “You thinking an inside job…like someone from one of the intelligence agencies or the special ops guys in the military?  Yikes, the thought of that makes me squirm.”

Jordan:  “It should make you squirm.  But these guys see the Donald in situations we don’t.  If you listen carefully to some of the guys in the know about these agencies, they think he’s out of control.  Their job is to protect the country and the Constitution, not some individual, even the president.”

Back to the current conversation

Greenie:  “That must have been a sobering conversation.”

122913_1337_14BringingU2.pngJC:  “It was.  But now all that’s over.  To end on a more positive note, the country survived after president Queeg.  Lots of turmoil and the Revenge Revolution but we survived.”

Jordan:  “Yes, we did survive.  Now, you know what guys?  I think we could all use a glass of wine, including Gelly…and I’ll buy.”

#243 Primer Cha 8: “What’s Good for General Motors is Good for the Country.” Still True?

04 Tuesday Apr 2017

Posted by Jordan Abel in Economics, Gov't Policy

≈ Leave a comment

First-time readers, the dialogue in this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020).  Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution.  More about Revenge Revolution and author, Entry #1.  List and general description of entries to date.  Annual assessment if Revolution plausible.

Note: most characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations.  Profile of characters.  You’ll catch on quickly.  Thanks for your time and interest…and comments.

Scene: Gelly, Jordan’s assistant, has been editing and updating a primer Jordan wrote about 2011.  Section starts Entry #235.  (Primer will be available as PDF in another week or so.  Then the primer download will be updated regularly.) 

Gelly: “Jordan, I have a request.  You know I’ve been trying to edit the Primer on 092615_2031_Characters7.gifEconomics and do my regular job.  Well…”

Jordan: “Well, you’re having a tough time, right?”

Gelly: “Yes.  With all the upheaval in Washington and all the calls you’re getting after the Revenge Revolution, finding extra time has been very difficult, ya’ know?”

Jordan: “Look, I understand.  We’ve both been incredibly busy lately.  Why don’t you edit the primer as time permits and we’ll just add it to the primer website page.  By the way, Turtleneckis the primer page on the site?”

Gelly: “Actually, no.  But give me a few more days, OK?”

Jordan: “You’ve got a deal.  Now, please let me read the chapter on why a strong domestic auto industry is important.  That’s near-and-dear to my heart.”

—————– Text of Primer Chapter 8 ——————

(Written originally: June 2009, as the US was mired in a deep recession) In the last few months, a number of ordinary citizens, government officials and media pundits have Rantranted and raved, asking, “Why should we use government money to bail out Chrysler and General Motors?” The comments continue, “Management at these companies has made bad decisions, UAW wages are too high and no one wants to buy their cars. Besides, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Hyundai and Mercedes all make vehicles in the United States.”

The question about validity of government bailouts is valid…but the conclusion is not correct. The U.S. needs a healthy domestic auto industry but for reasons that many people may not have considered.

Why write an article defending the domestic auto industry?  I’m writing because a number of people asked me to do so. Once I explained my views on a strong domestic auto industry, most people responded with something similar to, “I never realized how important it is to have strong domestic auto companies.”

goofy006What makes me an expert? My comments are based on some fundamental laws of economics and 40+ years in the auto business.  The auto experience includes being inside a large auto company as well as starting several companies offering hybrid-electric or 100%-electric drive systems. I’ve been in technology centers, on factory floors, in boardrooms, in design centers and in dealership showrooms and service bays. I’ve been involved with some good, some bad and some ugly projects.

So why is a successful domestic auto industry so important? Three fundamental reasons: (i) ensuring advanced technology is readily available inside the country to auto and other industries; (ii) stimulating growth in other industries (iii) helping ensure national security.

ComplicatedWhat makes the auto industry different from most other industries is a combination of large-scale, complex manufacturing and demands for extremely high levels of reliability and durability, especially compared to other products. Everyone I have ever met who entered the auto industry after time in another industry makes the same comment after 2-3 weeks, “The auto business is much more complicated than I realized.” And the comment usually includes several expletives.

The degree of complexity does not mean “outsiders” should not enter the industry. Far from it. But outsiders need to be cautious about ignoring staff who have toiled inside the companies for many years. Institutional knowledge is very valuable and should not be taken lightly. Clean the water and be careful not to throw out the babies. (If you think the comments about complexity do not apply to such companies as Tesla, think again, and read more about how Tesla saved itself from bankruptcy.)    

ENSURING AVAILABILITY OF ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY.  What does the auto industry do that cannot be done by the defense or aircraft industry? The answer is volume. High volume drives down cost and lower cost makes products affordable for many more consumers. While much new technology is developed in defense and aerospace industries, neither industry generates the volume necessary to drive down cost significantly.

Think about the number of military and civilian aircraft built each year. The total number built for the entire year is equal to about one day’s production at one auto plant. And there are more than 20 auto assembly plants in the US. Auto companies produce 15-17,000,000 new cars and trucks in every year, just for the U.S. market.

down chartThus, for technology to be introduced in cars and trucks – even very expensive vehicles – cost must drop 1 to 2 orders of magnitude, or more than 90%, from cost acceptable for a defense or aerospace application.

Further, parts on cars must function with essentially no maintenance. Think about how little you maintain your car or truck vs. the number of hours you drive. Yes, you may refuel every few days, or every few hours, but how often do you change oil, have a tune-up or overhaul the engine compared to hours driven? Would you fly on a commercial airplane with the same minimal maintenance schedule as you have for your car? Of course not.

Despite the limited maintenance schedule, cars and trucks are expected to operate and last 15-20 years, or more. What other major piece of equipment so widely used in so many different environments lasts that long?

?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????Well, you say, “I still don’t understand why we need to bail out GM and Chrysler. Seems like the government is pouring money down a hole.”  As a point of clarification, when I talk about the auto industry, I mean more than just assembly plants.  The core of the auto industry is primarily component design and manufacturing. The assembly plants get all the glamour but industry guts are in components – electronics, robots, batteries, wheels, frames, tires, steering, foundries for engines and brakes and many other components.

Manufacturing of components creates value.  In addition, knowledge gained in manufacturing can be transferred to other industries. As a country we often overlook the need to remain competitive in producing components. The US does not need to produce all components for all cars assembled in the US. But is does need to maintain the capability of producing a high percentage of each key component.

STIMULATING OTHER INDUSTRIES.  The technology used in autos is directly applicable to many other industries. The demands of the auto industry for lower cost and high reliability force many suppliers to improve their technology and quality processes. A strong domestic auto industry increases the likelihood, although does not ensure, the U.S. is creating, receiving and utilizing the latest technology.

Will foreign auto companies with U.S. assembly plants transfer the latest technology to the U.S.? No, just as the U.S.-companies do not export their latest technology to other countries. If there is any question about countries keeping technology at home first, one should study technology available on cars sold by Toyota and Nissan in Japan compared to technology available in the US. Frequently the technology is not available in the US for 2-3 years after being introduced in Japan.

EV1Further, some technology breakthroughs have a long-lasting impact. An example is the effort by GM in the early 1990’s to develop and introduce an electric vehicle, known as the GM EV1. While GM was praised for introducing the car, and skewered when stopping production, the advances in technology developed for the EV1 program became the foundation for many of the electronics available in cars and trucks today, 20 years after the EV1 concept car was introduced at the Los Angeles auto show.

Yes, GM deserves criticism for canceling the program. But GM deserves praise for advancing automotive electronics, which in turn led to the use of advanced electronics in many non-automotive applications. The strong domestic auto industry creates advancements in technology that benefit the auto industry and all segments of industry and everyday consumers.

Advanced technology applied in non-auto industries keeps US companies competitive worldwide. Exports create jobs. If you think transportation-driven technology is not important to other industries, think about productivity in agriculture, raw materials, manufacturing, distribution and other industries. Most of the productivity gains were greatly influenced by demands first met in the auto industry. Without such productivity, the US output and incomes would fall toward lesser developed nations.

Yes, I know, Silicon Valley is great. But the country needs to translate the ideas to generate wealth for US society. Manufacturing generates wealth, services do not. Knowledge without manufacturing does not create wealth.

NATIONAL SECURITY.  Since foreign-based auto companies do not transfer the latest technology – and why should they – without a strong domestic auto industry, the U.S. will fall behind in technology development for everyday products and manufacturing efficiencies. This in turn will lower potential GDP growth and personal incomes.

More importantly, however, without a higher-volume domestic auto industry to spread cost, will the country be able to afford the cost for developing new technology used primarily for defense and aerospace applications? Probably not unless we raise taxes and lower incomes.

WWII AircraftFinally, and let’s hope this never occurs again, but what happens if the U.S. needs manufacturing capacity for a large-scale ground war? A domestic auto industry, both assembly and component manufacturers will be critical for rapid conversion from automotive production to defense materiel. Having only assembly plants without domestically sourced components – engines, transmissions, axles, electronics, and so forth – offers no benefit for national security. (For insight into how the auto industry contributed to production of war materiel in WWII, visit Auto Industry in WWII. One of many websites.)

SMART INVESTMENT.  Taxpayer dollars to ensure a vibrant domestic auto assembly and component manufacturing industry are dollars well spent – a smart investment. What would the hue and cry be from these same critics of the GM and Chrysler bailout if the defense and aerospace industries began outsourcing critical defense weapons systems to such countries as India, China and Japan?

Charles_Wilson_official_DoD_photoIf you still have doubts, name one country worldwide that has sustained growth in GDP and real growth in consumer incomes without a strong manufacturing base built around a strong automobile industry? Call me when you can name one.

Supporting a strong domestic automobile industry is smart economics. Charles E. Wilson was correct, when he said many years ago, “What is good for General Motors is good for the country and vice versa.”

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