Category Archives: Post Trump Presidency

#402. Plop, Plop, Fizz, Fizz. Oh What a Relief He is.

25 Monday Jan 2021

Posted by in Gov't Policy, Post Trump Presidency, Uncategorized

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Readers: The entries in this blog are built around the assumption there will be a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.

Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether a revolution in the US is possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Entry #400 was the most recent “sense check.”

Some of the entries are part of a series.  Several series are available as easy-to-read booklets for download.  See list at end of this entry.

Beginning #378 the entries began focusing on a post-Trump administration.  We’ve started a post-Trump presidency and working toward a post-COVID world, even if post-virus is a ways away.  Comments and suggestions welcome.

ENTRY #402: The inauguration of Joe Biden reminds me, and apparently many others, of a long-ago Alka-Seltzer commercial, “Plop, plop, fizz, fizz, oh what a relief it (he) is.”  Within hours of Biden/Harris being sworn in, there was a noticeable change in the attitude of the White House and a change in the attitude of government agencies.

Adults were back in charge. Rational policies were being outlined and some implemented.  Biden issued a series of Executive Orders restoring many policies of previous administrations – from Obama to Bush to Clinton and even some policies as far back as Nixon – that had been overturned by Trump.

The Biden administration also began talking honestly about the problems trying to get everyone vaccinated against COVID-19.  A solution to every problem was not forthcoming but most adults started feeling more at ease.  The anxiety level in the US and worldwide dropped precipitously.  Biden may become known as the Alka-Seltzer president.

Will the Alka-Seltzer reduce the likelihood of the Revenge Revolution?  The Revenge Revolution began with raid on the US Capitol.  What remains unclear is the next step for the raiders.  Interestingly, very shortly after the inauguration, some on the far right – Proud Boys, for example – began distancing themselves from Donald Trump, calling him weak.  Soon after the Proud Boys declaration other far-right groups began distancing themselves from Trump.

With Trump out of favor, and out of power, some in the Republican Party have started auditioning to replace Trump – Senators Cruz and Hawley, e.g.   But so far no high-profile individual has emerged as the clear leader.

Does the lack of a leader reduce the danger of the far right militia groups?  I would characterize the lack of a leader, especially one inside the Beltway, more as a temporary pause in activity rather than any change in attitude by these organizations.  Only the most naïve would assume the groups will become true patriots rather than wanna be fascists.

The religious right is also searching for a leader.  Even though president Biden has a long history of commitment to Christianity – a commitment orders of magnitude more than Trump – some on the right, most visibly Franklin Graham, cannot allow themselves to support the Biden administration.  Franklin Graham went so far as to support the attack on the US Capitol.

Give the remarks of Graham et al, one has to ask, “What does the religious right want in a president?”  Apparently, even though Biden represents well over 90% of what the religious right believes, the religious right seems to demand the president support them 100% or be defeated. How the religious right reconciled supporting Trump I still don’t understand since his behavior was antithetical to virtually every tenet of Christianity.

Fringe groups and wackos are not new to the United States. Most of the time the fringe groups received little support and/or little publicity. That is until Donald Trump encouraged far-right groups, militant and religious to overturn the will of the populous and enshrine him as dictator.

With the Alka-Seltzer president calming nerves and seeking unity rather than division, some Trumpsters sympathetic to the fringe groups are likely to migrate toward the center.   This migration may push the fringe groups farther right.

Another push right could come from reaction to many of Biden’s Executive Orders, which were aimed at immigration and/or disadvantaged groups.  Examples of EO’s include lifting the ban on Muslims from various countries from entering the US; extending protection for DACA entrants and a number of other programs. In addition, the Biden administration has discussed and/or proposed legislation addressing a number of other cultural and economic equity issues.

How will the fringe groups react to Biden’s EO’s and a more centrist approach?  The fringe groups are not going to disappear.  Unfortunately, if the groups do not find a leader inside the Beltway, they could become more reactionary and more dangerous.  Without a charismatic leader, the groups could begin to operate locally.

The invasion of the Michigan Capitol then the US Capitol demonstrated how hard it is for law enforcement to prevent gorilla skirmishes. Given the number of people with military backgrounds who have been arrested for participating in the raid on the Capitol in Washington, many of the smaller cells are likely well trained in military tactics.  As a result, it will be nearly impossible for law enforcement to prevent groups from carrying out targeted raids.

One of the most difficult tactics to prevent, and one of the most devastating, would be snipers trying to assassinate key Congressional leaders and/or key state officials.  Even a few such attacks over a number of months would create nationwide chaos.

The Biden administration has made a great start toward bringing the country back together.  One example is the boyfriend of the woman who stole Nancy Pelosi’s laptop.  She was found not because of the FBI investigation but because he turned her in.

Is the action of the boyfriend a single data point or maybe a change in attitude by many people?  Numerous people who participated in the raid on the Capitol were turned in by family and friends.  Maybe, just maybe there is enough change there would be significant backlash by family and friends to actions by or even participation in far-right groups.

Hate is not going to disappear but can be managed more effectively with a concerted effort by participants in all levels of government, the media and the general population.  With such an effort the Revenge Revolution will be more of a cultural revolution and less of a fighting revolution.  Without a concerted effort, the US could slip into another civil war.  We’ve already witnessed the danger to democracy during the Trump presidency and with the attack on the Capitol.      [End of #402.]

Booklets you might find interesting:

#401. Here We Go. The 5th US Revolution Has Begun.

10 Sunday Jan 2021

Posted by in Post Trump Presidency, Societal Issues, Uncategorized

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Readers: some of the dialogue in this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Entries addressing events in the the future assume there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.

Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether in the next few years, a revolution in the US is still possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Entry #400 was the most recent “sense check.”

Some of the entries are part of a series.  Several series are available as easy-to-read booklets for download:

Beginning #378 the entries began focusing on a post-Trump administration and a post-Coronavirus world.  We’re headed to a post-Trump world and post-COVID world, even if post-virus is a ways away.  Comments and suggestions welcome.

ENTRY #401: Blog entry #400 was a “sense check addressing whether a 5th US Revolution was likely, or even possible. Well, we didn’t have to wait long for confirmation.

On January 6th, in a rally outside the White House, Trump egged on a group of supporters to go to the Capitol and disrupt the counting of the Electoral College votes by the Senate. The Trump mob, many with either a Confederate flag or a banner with Trump’s picture superimposed on an American flag, then stormed the US Capitol.

The group overwhelmed the Capitol Police and broke into the House and Senate chambers. Some proceeded to damage artwork and then ransack offices, most notably the office of the Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi.  A number of people were injured and 5 killed, including a Capitol police officer.

Trump’s reaction? He claimed the seditionists were really patriots. Reactions of high-profile Republicans? Some were genuinely outraged but many seemed to shed crocodile tears. A surprising large number of Republican Representatives and Senators have continued to support Trump, while criticizing the Capitol Police for failing to hold off the mob.

When the House and Senate reconvened in the early evening of January 6 to resume counting electoral votes, did Republicans continue to object to the votes certified by states, even if the certification was by Republicans?  Of course they objected.  Republicans claimed that the ballots supporting Biden were fraudulent, even though those same ballots resulted in the election of those protesting.  Only in Trump world could one use such logic.

These Republican Representative and Senators continued with Trump-world logic.  Comments went along the following lines, “What did Trump do that was so bad? I mean, the last time anyone invaded the Capitol was in 1812. And it was the British.  They burned the Capitol to the ground.  Trump’s group merely protested and rearranged some papers and furniture in a few offices.  No big deal.  All you liberals quit whining.”

Even more frustrating than the logic of the Trump Republicans in Congress was the reaction of some supposedly educated people I know. I have purposely maintained Facebook friendships with some hardcore Trump supporters. Several of these people I’ve known for many years and decided not to let some idiot like Trump ruin a friendship.  In addition, viewing their posts does provide some idea of how Trump supporters think.

The posts following the storming of the Capitol were interesting as well as baffling. One person claimed that the insurrectionists were not really Trump supporters but liberals trying to make Trump look bad. She had proof that one participant had been at a climate change rally on the West Coast. Not only was her “proof” quickly refuted – the alleged “climate change” participant was a hard-right group member – but apparently it never occurred to her that one or more participants at the Trump rally might have tried to disrupt the climate change rally. Oh no, Trump supporters would never do that.

Reaction from another friend was more drawn out. I received an unsolicited email from the individual stating the Trump should leave. I responded by agreeing, then discussing how Trump’s behavior could accelerate the split in the Republican Party, with more principled Republicans leaving the party and forming a third party with members of the Lincoln Project.  The “Lincoln” Republicans could gain considerable influence by aligning with more moderate Democrats. Such an alignment would effectively render the far right of the remaining Republican Party as a non-entity politically.

The reaction to my rather straightforward comments? No direct response. Instead, the response focused on Democrats, stating that Nancy Pelosi, Maxine Waters, and Stacey Abrams were evil.  Not sure why they are considered evil, especially Abrams who currently holds no political office.

The next day I received another email with a link to a right-wing blog.  The author of that blog, of course with no data, proved the media had caused the US population to split politically. 

While the logic stream in the emails was confusing at the least, one point was true. The media have contributed to the split in the population.  But not the media the writer intended. The split has been caused in large part by Fox News, Limbaugh and some social media sites rather than the media the writer considered.

Like a few Facebook friends, Trump couldn’t stop and think.  He continued to tweet, encouraging supporters to protest at state capitols and protest during the Inauguration of Biden/Harris.  Trump made sure supporters knew he would not attend the swearing in.  Implicit in Trump’s tweet, “Have at it boys.  Fire away, I won’t be nearby.”

The adults in positions of power have reacted to Trump’s insurrection.  The House is preparing articles of impeachment. Pelosi contacted the Joint Chiefs about making sure Trump could not order use of nuclear weapons without additional review.  Twitter has banned Trump from ever having an account.  Other social media sites have banned Trump as well. 

Some people in Congress have suggested not pursuing Articles of Impeachment.  “Why bother since Trump is so close to leaving office?”  In an interview on PBS News Hour, Representative James Clyburn, D, SC and the House Whip, was quite clear.  I’m paraphrasing, “If someone breaks the law, they need to be held accountable.  It does not matter whether there is one day left in their term.”   

As far as the 5th Revolution, if storming and occupying the US Capitol is not the act of revolutionaries, I’m not sure what is.  How long will Trump be able to lead the revolution?  Likely he will fade rapidly once out of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

There may be a Trump-incited rally or two over the next month or so but that will be it.  Like most bullies who lose power, he’ll become a nobody.  Plus, the minute Trump leaves office he faces significant legal and financial challenges.  And no pardon can protect him at the state level.  The icing on the cake might be the town of Palm Beach enforcing a prior agreement that limits the number of days he can stay at Mar-a-Lago.  If the agreement is enforced, he’ll have to find another place to stay.

With Trump out of the White House, with no Twitter account and with no real financial resources, Trump supporters, especially the insurrectionists, will be seeking a new spiritual leader. No one is on the horizon. Cruz and Hawley are anything but charismatic. 

What may be the most concerning, however, is actions of small bands of Trump crazies to punish alleged enemies.  Targets could include Democratic leaders in the House and Senate, state officials considered “unfriendly’ to Trump – governors, secretaries of state, e.g. – and Federal judges who dismissed Trump’s lawsuits claiming fraud. Even VP Pence, a Trump lapdog for 4 years, is on the persona non-grata list of the hard-core Trumpsters.

As the US military has learned repeatedly, trying to prevent small groups from attacking specific targets is exceedingly difficult.  Such attacks would cause widespread angst among public officials and citizens.                

As noted in some other entries, the 5th US Revolution — the Revenge Revolution — will include some major cultural shifts. More about cultural changes in the next few entries.  Hang on. The upheaval in decade of the 2020’s could easily rival the upheaval of 1960’s/early 1970’s. 

#400 Sense Check. 5th US Revolution Still Possible?

01 Friday Jan 2021

Posted by in Post Trump Presidency, Sense Check, Societal Issues, Uncategorized

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Readers: some of the dialogue in this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Entries addressing events in the the future assume there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.

Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether in the next few years, a revolution in the US is still possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  This entry is a sense check.  

Some of the entries are part of a series.  Several series are available as easy-to-read booklets for download:

Beginning #378 the entries began focusing on a post-Trump administration and a post-Coronavirus world.  We’re headed to a post-Trump world and post-COVID world, even if a ways away.  Comments and suggestions welcome.

ENTRY #400: SENSE CHECK. The first entry in this blog was the fall 2013, just over seven years ago. The theme of the blog evolved 9-10 years ago when I began drafting a thesis for an unfinished degree at the University of Michigan.  The degree was a masters of liberal studies in American culture.

I started the degree program a few years after we relocated to Michigan. The degree courses were interesting and unlike any I’d taken in undergrad or graduate school. One of the benefits of the program was becoming much better at the TV show “Jeopardy.”

I finished the thesis and submitted to U of M.  Then learned I was a couple of courses short.  After a number of years in Michigan, we had moved to California, then to Charlotte.  I hadn’t been enrolled for some time but thought the coursework was completed. Although U of M indicated the two courses could be taken on line, I decided enough formal education.

However, I didn’t put the thesis on the shelf.  When researching material for the thesis, I “discovered” the US seemed to experience a revolution about every 50 years. I assume like many discoveries, this “discovery” was quite by accident.

The working title of the thesis was “The American Revolution.”  “The American Revolution” didn’t refer to the traditional American Revolution but a tagline from an old Chevrolet commercial.  Much of the content of the thesis focused on how to rebuild US manufacturing (yes, long before the Donald made such a claim), with particular emphasis on how Southeast Michigan could leverage knowledge of the auto industry to become a worldwide center for other products.  One example was leveraging skills in product design and electromechanical engineering to develop computer-aided prosthetics, which thankfully are now coming to market.

Because of the title, I wondered how many revolutions had America experienced.  Obviously, the American Revolution and the Civil War, but were there others?  As an early Baby Boomer, I considered the changes in music, hairstyles, attitudes toward sex, etc. in the late 1960s, early 1970s as a “cultural revolution.”  In addition to cultural change, that period included domestic violence with the assassinations of JFK, RFK and MLK as well as major civil disruptions in Newark, Detroit and Los Angeles.

After a bit more analysis, I decided there have been four (4) revolutions so far in US history with each occurring roughly every 50 years.  Since the mid-point of the last revolution was about 1970, if the 50-year cycle was correct, then the fifth US revolution would be sometime after 2020. (More information about the four revolutions and how the timing was calculated in Entry #1.)

Well, here we are just having finished 2020.  Time to have a sense check and ask, “Is a 5th US revolution likely?” Unless you’ve been in a cave or on Mars the last few years, I think most people would say “Yes, a revolution of some type seems likely.”

The country seems as divided emotionally and politically as any time since the years leading up to the Civil War.  The Donald and the Trump Administration with all the craziness were contributors to this split.  But the divide in the country started long before Trump. 

OK, Trump was outlandish, arrogant, stupid, childlike and a host of other psychological “isms.”  Despite the behavior, Trump was not the first to cause the split.  There’s always been some split but the movement toward a chasm started with Ronald Reagan. 

Reagan kept proclaiming, even after becoming president that “government is the problem, not the solution.”  Reagan would also promote private industry as the solution.  While government is clearly not the solution to every problem, private Industry is not the solution to many problems either.

How many private companies would be willing to develop a product or build a system for which there was no known market?  The answer is zero, nada, none.  So, then how did railroads, the highway system, air travel, ground and satellite communications systems and the internet get funded?  Mmm, must have been that incompetent government. There is not a single company that would risk the capital necessary for the development and introduction of these larger scale programs.

At the same time, at some point the government needs to get out of the business it helped develop and let the private sector take over.  While one can debate the timing, the government has been diligent about allowing, even encouraging, private industry to take over these industries.

One of Reagan’s strength was communications – after all he was an actor.  Reagan should be given an Academy Award for convincing so many Republicans he was a fiscal conservative. In truth Reagan was a spendthrift whose administration ran up huge federal budget deficits. By the end of Reagan’s term in office, federal debt as a percentage of GDP had increased about the same relative amount as under FDR’s New Deal program in the 1930s.  (There are number of entries in this blog with more charts and explanations supporting the contention that Reagan started the split in attitudes among the populace.)

Another factor helping split the country was the introduction of cable news, then the internet.  Cable news and the internet, combined with a decline in the circulation of daily newspapers, resulted in the proliferation of alleged credible news sources, with emphasis on “alleged.”  Unlike old-line mainstream network TV channels and mainstream newspapers, the cable and so-called internet news outlets were not subject to the same FCC standards. 

The lack of oversight has allowed supposed news outlets to either radically distort the truth or simply create stories with no basis whatsoever in fact.  Without another source of information – daily newspaper, e.g. – many believe the cable channel or social media.  Worse still is many people cannot seem to separate commentary from the talking heads on these channels and the real news.  Further, some high-profile cable channels, notably Fox, until recently were openly distorting the news to support a certain political position and ignoring the truth.  For most of the last four years Fox should have been labeled “Trump TV.”

Back to the sense check about the possibility of a 5th US revolution.  If the past pattern holds true and there is a revolution in the next few years, then what form of revolution is going to take? Cultural? Shooting? A bit of both?

Almost certainly there’s going to be a cultural revolution.  Just as the Baby Boomers created the cultural revolution in late 60s, early 70s the now teens and twenty-somethings – Generation Z — are going to force cultural changes.

What the Vietnam War was for the Baby Boomers, climate change is for Gen Z. And unlike the Baby Boomers, where jobs were relatively plentiful, most everyone in Gen Z faces a bleak job market, even for many who are college educated.

Gen Zers feel trapped economically and trapped by an ever bleaker outlook for the environment. And some in Gen Z point the finger at Baby Boomers for making these problems worse.

The coffee shop I visit most every morning is staffed with many Gen Zers.  One young lady, an excellent college student, said the other day when we chatted about solving social problems, “We’ve got to get rid of these old politicians. They’re too rigid and set in their ways.”

If you are a Baby Boomer, or even a bit older, watch out. The light at the end of the tunnel is a Gen Z freight train that is picking up speed.

The Gen Zers are not alone.  High-school grads, whether recent or older are frustrated as well.  Where do they find employment in this new world?

Covid-19 demonstrated that many critical societal jobs are being filled by less-educated, lower-paid workers. All of a sudden, the US seemed to depend on those previously invisible grocery-store clerks, hospital aides, delivery-truck drivers, transit staff, etc.  But what else can these workers do?

Covid-19 also demonstrated how vulnerable other entry-level jobs were, especially in restaurants, hotels, retail stores and office buildings. Their jobs disappeared almost overnight. And, even with the Covid-19 vaccine, it may be a decade or more before many of their jobs return.

Such service workers, along with lower-paid manufacturing workers, seem to be the most likely to be involved in an armed revolt. By revolting, what does a group have to lose?  As a group, they are underpaid; they have no real prospects for upward mobility; they are not adequately educated for, and therefore not qualified for higher-paying technology-focused jobs.  

What about support from the political parties?  Interestingly, many in this group have been ardent Trump supporters.  Yet, Trump and the Republican Party have repeatedly dumped on this group economically. Just this past week Republicans in the Senate refused to consider bumping up the Covid-19 stimulus checks from $600 to $2,000.  Did the same group of Senate Republicans resist providing more Covod-19 funds to business? Of course not, the Republicans were glad to do so.

When this disadvantaged group finally wakes up, they will be angry and want revenge. That’s why I labeled the anticipated 5th US revolution as the Revenge Revolution.  This group will seek revenge for past injustices.  As noted in previous entries, many in this group are well-armed.

When there is a group that feels deprived, has no savings, has no job prospects, and has nothing to lose, and that is well-armed, you have an ideal core for starting a revolution. My take on the probability of a revolution?  The Gen-Zers will drive a cultural revolution for sure.  Probability the deprived start an armed revolution of some type?  75%.   To be continued.

#399. The Donald and Charlie. Two Peas from the Same Pod. (Part #4)

17 Thursday Dec 2020

Posted by in Back Asswards Thinking, Causes of the Revolution, Education Issues, Post Trump Presidency, Societal Issues, Uncategorized

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Readers: some of the dialogue in this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Entries addressing events in the the future assume there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.

Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether in the next few years, a revolution in the US is still possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Most recent sense check, ENTRY #387.   Next Sense Check will be Entry #400.

Some of the entries are part of a series.  Several series are available as easy-to-read booklets for download:

Beginning #378 the entries began focusing on a post-Trump administration and a post-Coronavirus world.  We’re headed to a post-Trump world and post-COVID world, even if a ways away.  The premise of a 5th US revolution in the 2020’s decade has not changed.  Comments and suggestions welcome.

ENTRY #399: The past few entries have attempted to understand the cause of and whether to attempt to solve cognitive dissonance among many Trump supporters. The issue is not about different political philosophies. A democratic society should have at least two strong political parties. The difference is trying to understand why so many Trump supporters are willing to sacrifice the basic tenets of democracy for a known wannabe autocrat.

What does Trump offer that has created a cult-like following? When one steps back and analyzes the data, the Trump cult is getting nothing in return for following the Donald. So why follow the Donald? What is the appeal; what is the quid-pro-quo?

Despite no obvious benefit, at least to rational thinkers, why does the Trump cult do whatever the Donald wants? The Trump cult supports his actions even when the actions are contrary to the best interest of the followers.

It’s as if Trump is like the Great Oz, “I say the coronavirus is like the flu. You don’t need a mask.” And the followers don’t wear a mask. Or the Great Oz says, “Send money to me to help fight a stolen election.” And the cult sends money. Or the Great Oz says “Support a gigantic tax break for the wealthy and the benefits will trickle down to you.” And the cult believes in voodoo economics, even though the Federal deficit has ballooned and the children/grandchildren of the cult will be paying for the wealth transfer.

In some ways Trump reminds me of Charlie. Reminds me not of Charlie Tuna, although Trump’s body profile looks similar. But reminds me of Charlie Manson. Often times Trump seems as maniacal and crazy as Manson.

If you think the comparison to Manson is extreme, consider Trump’s actions to suppress efforts to control the pandemic. Also, consider the claims about the White House intentionally distorting info from CDC re the severity of the virus. Now, count the number of unnecessary deaths by Trump’s actions and compare the number to Charlie’s death toll. Still think the comparison is unfair?

As far as members of the cult, at least the women who hung around Charlie Manson, got satisfied sexually. Those who hang around Trump only get screwed economically.

How does the US society begin to address and re-educate members of the Trump cult? I don’t think we should waste our time. The cult members have been brainwashed and the major protagonist will fade away by late spring 2021. Unfortunately, the essence of Trump’s message may not fade as quickly.

Post inauguration, Trump will act like many bullies when their perceived power is taken away. He will melt like the Wicked Witch of the West. Oh, Trump might hold a few pep rallies and generate some noise, but nothing of any lasting consequence.

If Trump understands one thing well, that one thing is how to take other people’s money. When he was in debt for the failing casinos, he declared bankruptcy and walked away leaving the banks with the debt. Since no US-based bank would deal with him, beginning in the late 1990’s, early 2000’s Trump turned to sources outside the US to fund purchases of golf courses and hotel properties. While in Charlotte, NC to visit one of the Trump golf courses, Don, Jr. bragged that the Russians had become Trump’s primary funding source. And you still wonder why Trump’s nice to the Russians?

A recent example of using other people’s money was when it became clear that he was likely to lose the re-election to Biden. At that point Trump formed a PAC that was promoted to help him get re-elected in 2024 and to help finance the legal cost of lawsuits associated with what Trump kept promoting as the “rigged” 2020 presidential election.

The reality is the PAC is Trump’s new piggybank. Donors likely didn’t read the fine print. After a small percentage is allocated to the RNC and some for legal costs for the frivolous lawsuits, Trump gets to keep the rest. The money will stay in the PAC although Trump will control the disbursement of funds, including use for personal expenses. Keeping funds in the PAC should protect the PAC from creditors, who will likely force Trump into bankruptcy when the $400+ million loans on his properties come due in the next few years.

Whether the PAC funds can be protected from judgements for fraud is problematic. The State of New York has been investigating the Trump organization and Trump personally for tax fraud and possibly other crimes. The investigations may lead to indictments soon after Trump leaves office. State crimes are not overridden by a presidential pardon. Oops.

To convince cult members he will keep promoting his message, Trump has claimed he will create a new cable channel once out of office. The claim seems to be another ploy to attract funds from the ne’er-do-well supporters, who can least afford it. Trump will need an outlet since most credible media, save a couple of bloviators on Fox, have started focusing on the Biden administration’s plans to address mounting economic and social problems.

Like Charlie Manson’s followers, some of Trump’s supporters will stay in the cult no matter the circumstances or the evidence against the cult leader. Most followers, however, soon will migrate to another fringe Republican candidate who probably will be more charismatic than Trump but spew the same BS.

The biggest problem for the Republican Party is Trump’s legacy and how to recover from it. The damage to the credibility of government and the democracy caused by Trump’s corruption, cronyism and complacency has been significant.

For the Republican Party in particular, how long will a substantial portion of the Party believe the dis-information and fantasies, whether promoted by Trump or a follow-on Trump? How can the Republican Party put forth a credible platform of governance beyond “Just Say No” to whatever Biden or Democrats propose? Without a more reasonable platform the appeal of the Republican Party will continue to shrink.

A shrinking and ineffective Republican Party could become a major contributor to a 5th US Revolution, aka the Revenge Revolution? On the optimistic side it will take 10-15 years to repair the damage to the Federal agencies and the credibility of the government caused by Trump and complicit Republican Senators, Representative and state governors. During the period of repair, the chances of unrest increase. Trump cultists could be persuaded to revolt, whether or not Trump is still around.

For many years a small group in Texas has promoted secession. That group and the Trump cultists appear to share many of the same characteristics. The secession movement could move beyond the obvious candidates of former Confederate states. A broader secession movement could find support in the upper Midwest – for example in the northern part of Lower Michigan – as well as a number of other Midwest and mountain states.

The secession movement could grow even stronger if Biden steps down after one term, which seems likely, and Kamala Harris then is elected president. Given the harassment and death threats by Trump loyalists of the female elected officials, especially in Michigan – Governor, Attorney General and Secretary of State – the Trump loyalists likely would consider stronger action against a Black female president.

As noted periodically in these entries, a well-coordinated widespread guerilla-warfare like attack could cause significant damage to property and result in a number of deaths. Think of Charlie Mason’s Helter-Skelter attack but on a much larger scale. The disruption would create significant angst among the general population. Once the guerilla warfare started, unless the federal and state governments quickly quelled the attacks, the country could start to spin out of control.

More about the possible Revenge Revolution in entry #400.

#398 Overcoming Cognitive Dissonance of Trump Supporters (Part 3)

06 Sunday Dec 2020

Posted by in Causes of the Revolution, Education Issues, Post Trump Presidency, Societal Issues, Uncategorized

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Readers: some of the dialogue in this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Entries addressing events in the the future assume there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.

Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether in the next few years, a revolution in the US is still possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Most recent sense check, ENTRY #387.  

Some of the entries are part of a series.  Several series are available as easy-to-read booklets for download:

Beginning #378 the entries began focusing on a post-Trump administration and a post-Coronavirus world.  We’re headed to a post-Trump world and post-COVID seems possible, if a ways away.  The premise of a 5th US revolution in the 2020’s decade has not changed.  Comments and suggestions welcome.

ENTRY #398: The previous two entries discussed the seeming inability to connect two dots of 1/3 or more of the American voting population. Well, let’s make that the inability to understand one dot.

I vowed that entries would look past the election and Trump’s absurd claims of voter fraud. But what I cannot look past is the continued cognitive dissonance of Trump supporters.

Trump is the quintessential con man.  How many honest real estate developers do you know? The con man recently formed a PAC, with funds supposedly to be used for: (i) legal fees to fight fraud in the 2020 election; (ii) his re-election bid in 2024. To help fund the PAC, Trump sent a series of emails and letters to likely supporters. Since the election, roughly one month ago, how much has Trump raised for the PAC, mostly small donors? Not $10 million, not $50 million, not a $100 million but $200 million plus and counting.

What are the PAC guidelines for using the funds? A portion goes to the RNC, maybe 25%. The rest can be used by the Donald however he wants, including paying himself a salary, using funds for living expenses, legal fees, clothing, haircuts or whatever.  Folks, the con man is not going to run again.

Then, why did he start the PAC?  Dollars to donuts the PAC money is legally separated from Trump’s personal funds. If so, Trump created a separate source of money protected from future lawsuits against him.

In the next 12-18 months the Trump organization is faced with repayment of loans apparently totaling more than $400 million.  Many of the Trump properties were bleeding cash before the pandemic.  Likely worse now.  The problem for Trump is he personally guaranteed most, if not all the loans.  Thus, whatever personal assets he owns are at risk.

Will Trump pay?  Of course not.  He never pays his debts.  When the loans are due, he’ll claim the lenders are out to get him and his only way to get even with the deceitful creditors is to declare bankruptcy…yet again.  Although in bankruptcy he might lose rights to various properties, what does he care?  He’ll walk away without debt.  He also won’t be broke since he’ll have access to $150 million of PAC money. 

If he declares BK, won’t he lose Mar-a-Lago?  Probably not.  Under Florida law one’s “homestead property” is considered an asset exempt from the bankruptcy trustee.  Now you understand why he moved to Florida from New York, which has no protection provision.  So, with all the financial shenanigans, Trump still walks away with no debt, Mar-a-Lago and $150 million.  By any standard a very good con.

In the end, who got conned? Lenders, although most were foreign, especially Russian, and may have been repaid in other ways while Trump was president, and his supporters, many of whom have very limited funds.  (Take heart.  The State of New York seems to be readying a tax fraud case against Trump and family.  Assets exempt under BK law may not be exempt under a tax fraud case.)

Why can’t people understand the obvious? Forget the part about declaring bankruptcy, and just consider Trump asking for money.  He’s claiming the money would be used for his re-election bid. Such a claim should be enough by any standard to raise questions about his credibility.  Plus, there was ample media coverage, save possibly Fox, that most of the contribution to the PAC could be used any way Trump so desired, including personal expenses.

In the US, there have always been con men.  Recall part of Lincoln’s quote, “…you can fool some of the people all the time…”  With so many people are falling for the con, including supposedly educated people, how are we as a society to avoid such a huge con in the future?

In the last entry I suggested children could be taught to think critically by expanding educational focus from STEM to SMELT – Science, Mathematics, Engineering, Liberal-arts, and Technology. SMELT classes would start as early as possible, including kindergarten.

What do we do to educate adults during the years when children are in school and learning to think critically?  What about the adults who cannot understand one dot, let alone connect two or three dots? I confess, I don’t have any concrete suggestions.  Adults are not required to go back to school. As long as no laws are broken, adults are pretty much free to do whatever they want.

With these adults, logic does not seem to work. If you haven’t done so, try and reason with a Trump supporter. Evidence and facts do not matter. Even though the very same behavior would be excoriated if Trump were a Democrat, his followers fully support Trump’s actions as a Republican.

An alternative approach to education is to form another party with values similar to the pre-Trump Republican Party. Maybe values of a pre-Reagan Republican Party.  Reagan began the mantra that government is the problem, not the solution.  Imagine if Reagan had been president during WWII. 

The new Republican Party would appeal to disenfranchised Republicans, many independents and even some Democrats.  A concern is how long before the new party can became a formidable political force.  My initial guess was 4-5 presidential elections.  Then on second thought, I changed to maybe 1-2 presidential elections if the new party were formed around the Lincoln Project. 

A democracy needs at least two strong parties. Right now the US has a cult party, aka Trump Republicans, and a Democratic Party, which has a large umbrella covering a mix of ideas and some anti-Trump Republicans. A new “Lincoln Party” would be a draw for moderates, whether leaning left or right.

Is there a different way to break the Trump cult? The Biden/Harris administration’s commitment to work with both parties will be a start. My cynical side suggests Trump supporters are so brainwashed the Biden/Harris approach will fall on deaf ears.

People who belong to cults are not logical. Even acknowledging Biden as a legitimate president would require the Trump cult to admit a mistake. Since Trump never admits a mistake, why should the Trump cult members admit a mistake?

Okay, enough for this entry. A new “Lincoln Party” seems to be a reasonable solution to rebuilding a democracy that has two viable parties. If you have another idea, please let me know. I’m all ears.

#391 They’re Coming to America. Well, Not Any More. (#13 in Series)

30 Sunday Aug 2020

Posted by in Causes of the Revolution, Gov't Policy, Post Trump Presidency, Societal Issues

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Readers: some of the dialogue in this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Entries addressing events in the The future assume there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.

Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether in the next few years, a revolution in the US is still possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Most recent sense check, ENTRY #387.  

Some of the entries are part of a series.  Several series are available as easy-to-read booklets for download:

Prelude to the current series of entries: I’ve concluded Trump is a lunatic and the administration filled with lapdogs save a couple of people at CDC.  Instead of wasting time commenting on actions by Trump, I thought it more productive to begin discussing what happens in the US once the coronavirus is more under control.  #378 began the series. At this point not sure how many entries.  Comments and suggestions welcome.

ENTRY #391: At the end of Entry #390 I wrote the next entry would be a discussion about actions to affect climate change.  Wait one more entry.

I decided to change the topic because of two events.  One was this past week’s reality show claiming to be the Republican National Convention.  The reality show pointed out just how far the country has regressed from its core principles, especially the Republican Party.  Ethics?  Why bother?  Respect for others?  Why bother?  Self-respect?  Why bother?  Duty, honor, country?  What’s that?  If I’m not the center of whatever is occurring, then I’m not interested.

Maybe more telling, at least for me, about how far the country has strayed, was the second event that occurred this past week.  While walking back from the coffee shop, I finished a podcast and decided to finish the walk listening to some music.

The song that first played I’d heard many times before but not recently.  For some reason, this time I paid more attention to the words and less to the music.  By the end of the song I was really sad and asked myself, “What have we done to this country?  What can we do to return to the country to what it once was?”

The song was Neil Diamond’s “America.”  Below are the words.  Read them carefully and as you do, think about the America being described in the song – written in the mid-1980’s – and compare that America to the America of today.

With Trump we have a president and administration with policies that are the polar opposite of the America described in the song.  If Trump and supporters want to make America great again, they should start by studying the words of “America.”

“America” by Neil Diamond

Far
We’ve been traveling far
Without a home
But not without a star
Free
Only want to be free
We huddle close
Hang on to a dream

On the boats and on the planes
They’re coming to America
Never looking back again
They’re coming to America

Home, don’t it seem so far away
Oh, we’re traveling light today
In the eye of the storm
In the eye of the storm

Home, to a new and a shiny place
Make our bed, and we’ll say our grace
Freedom’s light burning warm
Freedom’s light burning warm

Everywhere around the world
They’re coming to America
Every time that flag’s unfurled
They’re coming to America

Got a dream to take them there
They’re coming to America
Got a dream they’ve come to share
They’re coming to America

They’re coming to America
They’re coming to America
They’re coming to America
They’re coming to America
Today, today, today, today, today

My country ’tis of thee
Today
Sweet land of liberty
Today
Of thee I sing
Today
Of thee I sing
Today

Do yourself a favor, go back and read the words again, slowly.  Then ask yourself, “How far have we as a country strayed from our core principles?”  Now ask yourself, “What am I and what are we going to do to make America the country described in the song ‘America’?”

#390: Bring in the Repair Crew to Fix Trump’s Damage (#12 in Series)

23 Sunday Aug 2020

Posted by in Causes of the Revolution, Education Issues, Gov't Policy, Post Trump Presidency, Societal Issues

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Readers: some of the dialogue in this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Entries addressing events in the The future assume there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.

Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether in the next few years, a revolution in the US is still possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Most recent sense check, ENTRY #387.  

Some of the entries are part of a series.  Several series are available as easy-to-read booklets for download:

Prelude to the current series of entries: I’ve concluded Trump is a lunatic and the administration filled with lapdogs save a couple of people at CDC.  Instead of wasting time commenting on actions by Trump, I thought it more productive to begin discussing what happens in the US once the coronavirus is more under control.  #378 began the series. At this point not sure how many entries.  Comments and suggestions welcome.

ENTRY #390:  One of the more positive events the last couple of weeks was Snoopy’s birthday. Yes, that Snoopy.  You know the great philosopher whose many friends and admirers include Lucy, Woodstock and Linus.

More seriously, the past weeks have been mind-wrecking. Coronavirus aside, Congressional Senate Republicans have all but disappeared from the landscape. Based on different credible news sources, no Republicans in the Senate, especially Mitch McConnell, were involved in the now stalled negotiations to extend government support for those whose economic well-being has been hit hard by Covid-19.

Trump became the de facto Republican negotiator. The outcome was no surprise.  Trump has proved repeatedly – in private and public life – to be one of the world’s worst negotiators. He maintained that pattern during these negotiations.

Always wanting someone to blame rather than working with someone to solve a problem, Trump and his brain-dead band of Munchkins refused to cut a deal with house Democrats.  Trump claimed the Democrats were at fault even though the House passed phase two of an economic recovery package in May.

McConnell, who may star in the sequel to “Dr. No,” refused to have any hearings on the House-passed bill or participate in negotiations.  Ah, isn’t it wonderful to play the fiddle while Rome burns?  Dilbert recently coined a new Covid-19 phrase that could be applied to McConnell’s behavior, “What a maskhole!”

So as McConnell fiddled instead of negotiating, Trump again declared himself king.  This time the self-declared king signed several half-baked Executive Orders that will do nothing to help those in need but seemingly will reinforce Trump’s image with his base as “solving the economic recovery problem.”  If his base only understood as much about economics as most 4th graders understand.

One half-baked Executive Order of his was to suspend Social Security withholding tax.  First, people who are working are not the bulk of the problem.  People who aren’t working or working very little need economic assistance. At least those working have an income.  Second, the withholding tax was to be “suspended” not eliminated.

As president, Trump has no power to change the tax law, especially with an Executive Order. So what does a “suspended withholding tax” mean? The money that should have been withheld from paychecks needs to be repaid. Thus, Trump’s Executive Order gave workers an opportunity to loan themselves money that they must repay.  Let me repeat, if his base only understood as much about economics as most 4th graders understand…

Suspending withholding tax seems fair, right? Mmm, maybe not.  Let’s see, workers get a loan they must repay while business owners get a loan from the federal government to pay workers and use for other expenses, but that loan doesn’t have to be repaid.  No such gift for the workers.

If you completed a survey of how many Trump supporters understood how Trump’s Executive Order really affected them, I’ll bet the total would be less than 5%. Why they continue to support actions by Trump that are not in their economic best interest is beyond me.

Trump’s nonsensical behavior and the abdication by Republican Senators of any responsibility to help the public does not bode well for the US post- 2020 election.  A Trump re-election would likely result in ever more dictatorial tirades. Some of his claims of late, as one reporter noted wryly, would make North Korea’s Kim Jung-un blush with embarrassment.  Attorney General Bill Barr seems equally bent on promoting an authoritarian-led Trump regime.

If Trump is re-elected and Republicans hold the Senate, another US civil war seems certain.  Yes, civil war with armed conflicts and attacks on segments of society deemed to be “Never Trumpers.”

If Biden wins, he and Kamala Harris will have an incredibly tough road ahead, even if the Democrats win back the Senate. The damage done by Trump, Barr, Pompeo and their cronies can be repaired, but…

Think of how long it takes to repair something – house, car, relationship – compared to the time it takes to cause the damage. What’s the time difference between time to break and time to repair? To repair takes probably ten times as long, or longer.

So, if Trump is re-elected and the US experiences a severe Revenge Revolution, or if Biden is elected and the US experiences a mild Revenge Revolution, the country is going to face a decade or possibly two decades before the damage from Trump can be repaired.  Repairing damage to some international relationships could take even longer.

Compounding the repair efforts will be demands to address societal issues caused by racism.  Effectively addressing issues caused by racism may be more complex than repairing Trump-related damage.

People who think some government actions or more laws will make racism disappear are being foolhardy. Racism, and not just racism directed at blacks, has been around for thousands of years.  For centuries, people outside one’s circle – immediate family, local community, ethnic background, religion, etc. – have viewed others with suspicion and often discriminated against them. No law is going to change such attitudes.

The demands that something be done right now to address issues caused by racism are understandable but very likely those demands will divert time and valuable financial resources from the effort to repair the economy, educational system, political system, infrastructure and other critical items which need to be repaired now.  In fact, one could argue rationally that without significant progress in repairing the Trump-caused damage, efforts to address racism will be for naught, and could even backfire.

The best solution for minorities to address the effects of racism, seems to be as it has always been for minorities – education, Education when supported by one’s community begets economic opportunity.  Consider the recommended approach racist if you want.

My view is members of the black community need to take the initiative to help one another.  The Black Lives Matter and other movements would do well to study the pattern of how every other ethnic group that migrated out of poverty.

There are many wealthy blacks who can support such an effort, from athletes to entertainers to business people. We need fair and equal enforcement of the law for sure.  But, it is also time for blacks to look in the mirror and begin to take charge of their destiny.

Significant progress might take two or even three generations. A journey of a 1,000 miles begins with one step.

As far as demands for reparations, my view is be careful what you ask for and especially be careful of what you demand.  Reparations might make some people feel better in the short terms.  Keep in mind reparations are a superficial solution that does not solve the underlying problem. A good sense check for reparation would be to research the lives of lottery winners for say 5-6 years following their so-called lucky day.

Real change takes time.  Real change takes commitment to change.  Real change takes hard work.  Respect must be earned.  Respect cannot be legislated.

Next time: discussion of actions to address climate change post-Revenge Revolution.

#388. Donnie’s Dudes Defect to Deep State (#10 in Series)

11 Saturday Jul 2020

Posted by in Post Trump Presidency, Societal Issues, Uncategorized

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Readers: some of the dialogue in this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Entries addressing events in the The future assume there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.

Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether in the next few years, a revolution in the US is still possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Most recent sense check, ENTRY #387.  

Some of the entries are part of a series.  Several series are available as easy-to-read booklets for download:

Prelude to the current series of entries: I’ve concluded Trump is a lunatic and the administration filled with lapdogs save a couple of people at CDC.  Instead of wasting time commenting on actions by Trump, I thought it more productive to begin discussing what happens in the US once the coronavirus is more under control.  #378 began the series. At this point not sure how many entries.  Comments and suggestions welcome.

ENTRY #388: Many years ago there was a TV show with a segment called “That Was the Week that Was.”  The TV show, “Laugh In,” was the satire and a precursor to “Saturday Night Live.”

Well, this past week would have been ideal fodder for “That Was the Week that Was.” SCOTUS ruled 7-2 that POTUS was not above the law and must provide relevant information for certain legal proceedings. In the case at hand, the legal proceedings were a grand jury in the State of New York investigating possible tax fraud by Trump and/or the Trump organization.

The 7-2 majority included two justices appointed by Trump, Gorsuch and Kavanagh. When nominated and then approved by the Republican Senate, Trump had nothing but praise for the two justices.  Trump’s tune changed when the two justices joined the majority and voted to uphold a 250-year precedent that the president was not above the law. Immediately following the ruling Trump claimed the two justices were part of the “deep state” and out to get him.

I mean really Donald, can two guys who voted to uphold 250 years of precedent be part of the “deep state” (whatever that is)?  You think the law doesn’t apply to you? Apologies for the rhetorical question.

A day after the Supreme Court decision with Trump still fuming that the law doesn’t apply to him, Trump thumbed his nose at the justice system and commuted the sentence of Roger Stone.  Stone had been convicted on multiple felonies and faced at least a three-year prison sentence. Stone was also a well-documented liar, self-described “dirty trickster” and a long-time friend of the Donald.  Such nice friends the president has.

While slightly out of chronological order, the icing on the cake for the week could be the release of the manuscript of an upcoming book by Trump’s niece.  The book includes insights into many inner-workings of the Trump family.  The niece, Mary Trump, is a clinical psychologist and describes Trump’s behavior in a series of events over time. While the pettiness of the Donald’s behavior seems even more appalling in private, anyone with an ounce of gray matter has witnessed this type behavior from Trump while president.

One insight I found disturbing, but personally amusing, was Trump paying someone to take his SAT to get into undergrad. Another clear indication of a lack of confidence and lack of self-worth. Classic behavior of a ‘wanna be.”

What does always mean for the coming Revenge Revolution? As noted in last week’s entry, the 5th US Revolution seems to have started.

On the positive side for society, Trump’s personal behavior and his refusal to take meaningful action to address Covid-19, has convinced most Independent voters and many Republicans to pause and rethink whether Trump deserves a second term. Whereas some questioning Trump also are so-so toward Biden – as are many Democrats so-so – the idea of re-electing Trump is viewed as high risk to the long-term stability of the US.

Biden’s appeal could be enhanced considerably with a credible running mate — Senator Tammy Duckworth, for example.  A Biden-Duckworth victory could be the catalyst to encourage Congress and the public to come together and begin repairing damage done by Trump.

An open question is whether the Black-Lives-Matter movement will view itself as part of the effort to repair the nation or view itself as a separate movement.  Substantively addressing and solving the issues raised by the BLM movement will take time, in some cases decades.  If the movement cannot be folded into a larger effort to get the US back on track and the effort to repair the US’ reputation worldwide, then the Revenge Revolution may intensify and continue unnecessarily for years, rather than starting to diminish under a Biden administration. More to come.

#387. 5th US Revolution Possible? We’re In It!

04 Saturday Jul 2020

Posted by in Post Trump Presidency, Sense Check, Societal Issues, Uncategorized

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Readers: The focus of this blog since 2013 has been if a 5th revolution in the US would occur around 2020, give or take a few years.   The caveat was whether the time between previous revolutions, approximately 50 years, would hold again.

The previous revolutions were: #1, the American Revolution, which ended with the War of 1812; #2, the Civil War: #3, the “industrialization and migration/immigration” revolution of about 1910-1915; #4, cultural revolution from 1965-early 1970’s. (For more explanation about the revolutions, Entry #1.)

Well, no need to speculate any more about a 5th US revolution. Unless you’ve been living in a cave, the 5th US revolution has started.

One might argue that a 5th revolution, which early on I labeled as the “Revenge Revolution,” began with the election of Trump. And Trump’s election might be a fair starting point.

Clearly many people were upset and thought someone with no political experience and no credible business experience could make changes they thought necessary.  (Trump supporters if you disagree with the statement that Trump had no credible business experience, do some research with good sources. You’ll understand why the statement is true.)

Trump became president because of a fluke in the Constitution. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by more than 3 million votes.  Nonetheless, Trump gained the White House via the Electoral College.

Whether or not the Revenge Revolution started with Trump doesn’t matter for this conversation. The Revenge Revolution has started now, and on multiple fronts – economic, social, medical, and certainly political. The fronts are interrelated, although some discreet elements exist in each.

The coronavirus scourge seems to be the catalyst for the revolution. For starters, Covid-19 has demonstrated how disjointed, dysfunctional and discriminatory the US medical system is. Even if there are underlying genetic traits that make groups more susceptible to the virus – blood type A, for example – the treatment available to those needing hospitalization for Covid-19 has varied from adequate to warlike conditions where supplies are short and treatment has to be rationed.

Attempts to control the spread of the virus have also demonstrated how certain classes of workers could be classified.  Many highly educated workers were considered “non-essential” and therefore temporarily, if not permanently expendable.  Among workers considered “essential” were many less educated, lower-paid, minorities, often from Trump’s “shit-hole” countries list.  Mmm, how did so people from those countries become “essential”?  The Trump administration forgot to explain.

Attempts to control the virus also resulted in unprecedented closings of businesses, employee layoffs, and a record decline in GDP. While a percentage of people have been rehired, the rehiring could be temporary as the rate of infections accelerates in some areas.  The pattern of a quick uptick (in this case, employment) followed by a rapid decline sometimes is referred to as the “dead-cat bounce.”

The social leg of the Revenge Revolution has been simmering for more than 100 years. What brought the simmer to a boil was the video of the Minneapolis Police killing George Floyd.  Release of the video precipitated protests and some looting, not seen in such volume and intensity since the 1960s.

Unlike like many previous social protests, which often faded rather quickly, the current protest seems to be gaining momentum.  Actions being proposed range from reducing funding of police departments to eliminating statues of Confederate generals (these generals fought against the US after all) to changing the names of certain sports teams – Washington Redskins and Cleveland Indians, e.g.

The Trump White House has taken a stand that ignores the growing Revenge Revolution. Trump claims repeatedly that the coronavirus will “just go away”; that the economy will bounce back stronger than ever; and that the protests are being led by leftist, fascist, thugs.

Donald and his supporters can think whatever they want about the revolution but the revolution will only gain momentum, which in turn will lead to even more change.  Exactly what will change is hard to predict.  No pattern has emerged other than a likely shifting of political power to Democrats following the November election.

Since today is Independence Day, I want to end on a positive note. Revolutions often result in major technological advances. After the US works through the Revenge Revolution, there could be a burst of Innovations in the industrial and medical sectors with the potential of generating significant employment gains and improvement in life span.

There’s a great opportunity ahead. We need the right people at the top to manage the transition and capitalize on the opportunity.  Stay tuned. More to come.

Other information. Some of the blog entries are part of a series.  Several series are available as easy-to-read booklets for download:

#377. What’s the Con Man Hiding?

05 Sunday Apr 2020

Posted by in Back Asswards Thinking, Diversions, Post Trump Presidency, Stupid Is as Stupid Does, Uncategorized

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Readers: this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.

Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether in the next few years, a revolution in the US is still possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Most recent sense check, Entry #365.  

Some of the entries are part of a series.  Several series are available as easy-to-read booklets for download:

Prelude: there is an endless number of inconsistencies in information from the Trump administration about the spread of the coronavirus and/or actions to mitigate the spread. For this blog entry we take a look at trying to understand why Trump behaves the way he does.  What’s really behind his behavior?

ENTRY #377 BEGINS:  Last week I ended the entry expressing hope that the experience and sacrifices associated with the coronavirus would help bring the US populace closer together. Being closer, in turn, would reduce the severity of the likely Revenge Revolution. Behavior by most of the public this past week seems to reinforce that hope.

What is far less clear is understanding the behavior and decisions by Trump. You have to ask yourself, “Why such behavior?” It makes no sense.

My training in undergrad and grad school and most jobs in my professional career have been to analyze data and then forecast events/outcomes. The challenge with forecasting is to articulate reasonable, actionable actions before the situation becomes obvious and more difficult to control. In addition, recommended actions that provide the most lead time often are necessarily, but also may be based on seemingly disparate data points.

Those who make predictions understand their forecasts are almost always wrong. Naysayers and “Monday-morning quarterbacks” love to nitpick and point out errors in the predictions. However, those who make decisions based on predictions understand that a good, actionable prediction doesn’t have to be 100% correct. A good prediction only needs to presents reasonably accurate outcomes for the most relevant variables before the situation becomes obvious and actions to control the situation less effective.

With that background, let’s turn to the behavior of Donald Trump as president. From my perspective there is something or maybe a set of variables driving his behavior that is not obvious. If one steps back and analyzes the possible consequences of the behavior, the likely outcomes of Trump’s actions seem contrary to the best interests of the United States. So, why such behavior?

Yes, Trump’s narcissistic. Yes, Trump’s crude, rude and a bully. Yes, he’s under educated and lazy. And, yes, he’s a wannabe Mafia Don. But none of those traits explains his decisions in certain key situations and his relationship with certain people.

Following is top-of-mind list of behavior and/or decisions that to me are inexplicable. With a bit of work, the list would be at least five times as long. Here’s the very short list:

  1. Post-inaugural closed-door meeting in the White House with the Russian ambassador, a known spy. After the meeting the transcript was destroyed. Why?
  2. Public and intense alienation of NATO allies while publicly courting Putin. Why?
  3. Refusing to release tax returns. Then, when ordered to provide tax returns to a Congressional committee, which is written in the tax code, refuses to do so and takes case to court. Why?
  4. When signing the $2 trillion coronavirus stimulus, adding an “executive exclusion” that claims the House of Representatives does not have the right of oversight for the expenditures and that he, Trump, will provide oversight. Why?
  5. Overruling vigorous protests by the FBI and CIA and issuing son-in-law Jared Kushner a top secret clearance. The agencies indicated Kushner’s behavior and associations disqualified him from such a clearance. What about the son-in-law’s behavior is so shady?
  6. Praising Navy SEAL Gallagher and then awarding him the Presidential Medal of Freedom when there was overwhelming evidence of criminal wrongdoing. Why go against the recommendations of the military?
  7. Trash-talking Navy Captain Brett Crozier of the aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt for trying to protect his crew from the coronavirus. Unlike Gallagher, Captain Crozier was praised as a hero by officers and enlisted sailors. Why praise Gallagher and trash-talk Crozier?
  8. Appointing cabinet officials with clear conflicts of interests, starting with General Flynn and his interactions with Russia and Turkey. Trump was informed of Flynn’s conflicts before the appointment, yet went ahead. Most of the Cabinet appointees have little or no experience in the department. In addition, Trump has consistently appointed “acting” staff members, apparently to avoid having the person be subjected to review by the Senate. Why?
  9. Claiming that he (Trump) had influenced the Saudis and the Russians to agree to raise oil prices. Just a few days before claiming he helped raise oil prices, Trump claimed that lower oil prices were like a tax cut for consumers. Whatever Trump offered the Saudis and the Russians didn’t work since the “deal” has been delayed. What was in this for Trump?
  10. Refusal to have the federal government take the lead in coordinating a response to the coronavirus. Only after extreme pressure did Trump invoke the Defense Production Act, which forced companies to make certain products and then sell the products to the Federal government at a certain price. But rather than the Federal government taking possession, Trump directs the companies to ship the products to private distributors, who are allowed to resell the products to the various states, often at 10x the price paid by the Federal government. Why?

There are many other examples, including the behavior of Attorney General Barr. But in each case one must ask, why? If any of these actions were part of a presidential campaign platform, would Trump have been elected? Obviously not. Who would vote for a candidate, for example, who says, “I’m going to insult NATO allies, and especially insult the English, French and Germans. Then I’m going to cozy up to a known enemy of the United States, the Russians.”

Here’s my take on Trump’s behavior and no one should be surprised. The Russians, for sure, likely the Saudis, and maybe the Chinese have Trump by the short hairs. Why? Because of backroom unreported financial deals, which likely involve laundering money. Recall, the only bank that would lend Trump money after his series of bankruptcies and defaulting on payments was Deutsche Bank. Which bank has been indicted and fined for laundering money? (Guess Deutsche Bank.) Who did Trump appoint as Commerce Secretary? None other than Wilbur Ross, the former chairman of Cyprus Bank, a bank notorious for laundering money.

Don’t be fooled by Trump’s bluster and claim that he’s tough on the Russians and Chinese. Look behind the curtain and see the sanctions against the Russians are a farce. The tariffs against Chinese goods are more show than substance. Think about this. Could the tariffs have been part of a deal where Trump agreed to walk away from the Trans-Pacific Partnership? The agreement would have strengthened America’s influence in Asia. By walking away, did Trump let the Chinese begin to dominate trade in Southeast Asia in exchange for some payment to Trump?

Even without his tax returns, there’s enough evidence to indicate Trump is up to his eyeballs in debt. Trump, Jr even bragged at the private club Trump bought north of Charlotte that the Russians were the source of money for many Trump projects. There’s enough evidence to suggest the Saudis have also provided cash to Trump.

Before the coronavirus, cash flow at many Trump properties was declining, and in some cases, cash flow was negative. The drop-off in cash flow associated with the Coronavirus has made the situation much worse. On April 4, the Trump Organization announced layoffs of 1,500 people. And more layoffs are likely to come.

Let’s pause for now and just ask ourselves, why in Trumpland does everything seem backwards? Why in Trumpland does black look like white? Why in Trumpland does down look like up? Why is irrational considered rational? And endless other dichotomies.

Over the next week, step back and view Trump’s remarks in the context of the questions raised and why everything seems backwards. Stepping back might provide some interesting insight, or at least raise more questions. To be continued.