Welcome to a discussion about the upcoming 5th Revolution in the US, which I’ve titled the “Revenge Revolution.” For more about the Revenge Revolution and the author, click “About the Author” tab.  Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether a revolution in the US is possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US. The previous “sense check” was ENTRY #500.

Been a while since the post #513. Check the prediction in #513 about Trump finding an excuse to drop out before the election. Based on his performance during the 09/10/24 debate, the odds seem even more likely.

The next series of entries may be considered a bit controversial. My view is we, societal we, need to have a honest and open conversation about trying to solve important social issues.

One solution we will discuss in this series is whether to modify the national education policy to fall someplace between Brown v. Board and Plessy v. Furgeson (separate but equal)?  The idea of such a policy might seem outrageous and might seem even more out of place for a discussion about ideas to help save democracy.  However, if one delves a bit deeper into what is causing major rifts in our society and rifts between political parties, “social programs” are near the top of the pile. 

Some housecleaning.  I do not know how many entries will address this topic.  Nor do I pretend to be an expert who will present a practical solution.  There have been numerous attempts to address the problem of why blacks seem stuck at the bottom of the economic ladder.  As is often the case when addressing a problem, particularly ones that are complex, proposed solutions tend to focus more on symptoms rather than the cause.  Further, when trying to address social problems, “political correctness” and/or political party affiliation tend to interfere with an objective analysis of the problem and possible solutions. 

House cleaning is over.  Back to the issue.  For this conversation, “social programs” are defined as those designed to attempt to overcome a perceived wrong inflicted upon another segment of society.  What seems to cause the rifts between groups is not an attempt to provide aid for those temporarily in need. 

The rift seems to evolve from social programs that are perceived to encourage recipients to remain on “welfare-like” program and/or to provide recipients with a seemingly unfair advantage.  Notice emphasis on “perception.” 

Are there data that could provide a degree of validity to various perceptions that seem to cause the rifts?   For many years I have asked myself, “Why have a seemingly higher proportion of blacks remained at the bottom of the economic ladder?”

Obviously, there are pockets of the economy where blacks have excelled – sports and entertainment, for example.  I understand the NBA teams are facing a suit that, if successful,  would result in implementing a quota system for white players – just kidding.  And many blacks have become quite successful nationally – Barack Obama and Kamala Harris are but two internationally known politicians.

What about blacks as a whole in economic terms?  How have they fared over time?  Let’s look at the symptoms as a start. 

Based on US Census data, in 2023 median income for blacks was about 70% of national median income.  In 1970, roughly two generations ago, median income for blacks was just over 61% of national median income.  Is that reasonable progress?

Compared to median income for whites, blacks’ median income increased from about 57% in 1970 to 63% of whites in 2023.  Compared to median income for Asians, blacks have remained at about 50% since 1982, the first year that median income for Asians was available. 

As one looks at the data, the question remains, “Why does the growth in median income for blacks seem so slow?  What is causing the significant persistent gap in median income among blacks?“

160+ years have passed since the Emancipation Proclamation. Post WWII, starting with the integration of the military, followed by Brown v. Board of Education and then a plethora of laws in the mid-1960’s addressing inequities in voting rights, education, housing, employment, etc.  Still blacks have remained stuck at the bottom of the economic ladder.

During the past 160 years numerous other ethnic groups have entered the US.  Many of those groups have faced severe discrimination – Italians, Irish, Jews, Chinese, Japanese, etc.   

Yet, for these other immigrant groups, despite being offered jobs with only a subsistence wage, within 2-3 generations, and sometimes less, the group as a whole started to move up the economic ladder.

Current immigrants of Hispanic origin face discrimination and challenges similar to previous immigrant groups. Further, Hispanics as a percent of US population have increased from ~7% in 1980 to nearly 20% in 2023.  Many of the newly arrived Hispanics find employment in lower-paying jobs.  Despite the bulge in the number of Hispanics with low-paying jobs, median income for Hispanics has remained at about 80-81% of national median income and 115+% of blacks. 

Why have blacks not made more progress and remained stuck at the bottom? Is it a lack of ambition? Is the cause a mentality that continues to believe white society owes black something for actions of slaveholders more than 6-7 generations ago?  While the statement might seem preposterous, can it at least partially be the cause? In Entry #515 we’ll discuss whether anecdotal evidence might provide some clues. END ENTRY #514

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