Monthly Archives: April 2025

524. Trump Administration Needs Intelligence, Even AI

27 Sunday Apr 2025

Posted by in Back Asswards Thinking, Stupid Is as Stupid Does, Trump 47, Uncategorized

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Welcome to a discussion about the 5th Revolution in the US, which I’ve titled the “Revenge Revolution.” For more about the Revenge Revolution and the author, click “About the Author” tab.  Periodically I write a “sense check” about the status of the Revolution. The previous “sense check” was ENTRY #519. Yes, we are currently embroiled in the “Revenge Revolution.”

BEGIN ENTRY #524: The last paragraph of Entry #523 stated, “…if the “organization in charge” – company, political party, group, etc. – views the world with a binary, zero-sum mentality, then all decisions are based on someone, or some group always having to win and someone having to lose.  Such an attitude inevitably leads to a revolution.”

With each passing week, the US public and people worldwide are realizing the Trump administration views all decisions through a zero-sum-game lens. Through this lens, there can be no shared wealth; no tide can lift all boats.  For each “winner,” there must be a “loser(s).”

What is also clear with the Trump administration is the lack of intelligence among cabinet members and deputies. The cabinet and staff are true representatives of the “gang that couldn’t shoot straight.“

From major blunders developing and implementing policy to typos in court filings (try using spellcheck) to terminating key people who transport nuclear weapons to deporting a two-year-old US citizen without any hearing.  Apparently, the Trump administration heard this 2-year-old was a real terror and thought that meant terrorist.

Maybe the easiest example for grasping the incompetence of the administration is how the tariffs were determined.  The tariff percentages for certain countries were grossly miscalculated. Tariffs were also levied on an island inhabited only by penguins. Those pesky penguins are really aggressive when it comes to trade.

Many of these “stupid-is-as-stupid-does“ mistakes could have been avoided simply by using such AI programs as ChatGPT or Copilot.

As a test of the value of AI, I asked Copilot the following question, “If you were thinking of implementing tariffs on goods imported from various countries around the world, what questions and analysis would you conduct, please?” The response took all of 3-4 seconds. The list of questions to consider and the suggested analytical steps are, based on my experience, an excellent start. (Link to response from Copilot.)

The AI response also asked if there were a particular industry or a particular country in mind for the tariffs. If so, responses to additional queries could be provided in more detail.

Apparently, Peter Navarro, Trump’s trade advisor, and convicted felon, never bothered to query AI for guidance and apparently did not complete much, if any, of the basic analysis suggested by AI before publishing the tariffs by country. When you think you’re so smart, what value is AI?

How has the American public been reacting to these seat-of-the-pants calculated tariffs? A range of opinion polls over the last few weeks indicates that the public is becoming more upset with the administration.  In every major poll asking about tariffs, the “unfavorable” rating exceeded the “favorable” rating, sometimes by more than 10 points.  Over time the gap between unfavorable and favorable re tariffs has continued to grow.  (The “unfavorable” gap on many other Trump administration actions is far greater than for tariffs.)

Since Trump, Musk and the DOGE dunces have terminated so many government employees with deep subject-matter knowledge – real analysis for many policy decisions is not intuitive – you’d think the Trump administration geniuses would be at least smart enough to start using AI for some basic guidance.

Well, no such luck. Apparently the Trump group is either too arrogant and/or too stupid to even consider using artificial intelligence for some guidance. More entries about AI coming. END ENTRY #524

Other Topics. Interested in more info about climate change, what’s required to electrify a fleet of cars/trucks, and an array of other topics, visit another page of this website, https://usrevolution5.com/jrd-thought-comments/

#523. Artificial Intelligence: Friend or Foe? We Don’t Know.

13 Sunday Apr 2025

Posted by in Causes of the Revolution, Education Issues, Societal Issues, Trump 47, Uncategorized

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Welcome to a discussion about the 5th Revolution in the US, which I’ve titled the “Revenge Revolution.” For more about the Revenge Revolution and the author, click “About the Author” tab.  Periodically I write a “sense check” about the status of the Revolution. The previous “sense check” was ENTRY #519. Yes, we are currently embroiled in the “Revenge Revolution.”

BEGIN ENTRY #523: AI has gotten a lot of ink in the past few years. Some people tout AI as the next major advancement in civilization, while others claim AI will accelerate the decline of civilization.  So, who’s right?

At this point, we don’t know. However, it seems possible that AI could reduce man’s (generic “man”) ability to think and ability to determine what is a reasonable solution to a problem. Yes, AI can help solve many problems. AI is an excellent tool for getting answers to questions.

The dilemma is whether or not the person asking AI for the answers needs to have a reasonably good understanding of the topic AI is being asked to address. Without that understanding, how does one know if the response is reasonable or AI is “hallucinating” – i.e., making up the answer. 

An example: in preparing for this blog entry, I asked AI the following “Draft a 2-page document describing how unreasonably high tariffs can affect the economy.” (Hint: the more precise the instructions to AI, the more likely you’ll get a reasonable response.)

AI’s response, which was provided in seconds, was, in my view, an excellent summary of the possible impact of unreasonably high tariffs. (Click link for AI response.)

Having studied economics and spent many years applying economics to guide critical business decisions helped provide me with a perspective to assess the credibility of the AI response. Without that education and experience, I would not have known to what extent the response was reasonable, or to what extent AI was hallucinating, which it does periodically.

The answer to the question, “Is AI a friend or foe?” will be greatly influenced by the extent to which society begins to substitute AI for basic learning. We are already experiencing some decline in the ability of the population to reason. In my view, that decline has been accelerated, in part, by the shift toward more emphasis on STEM (Science. Technology, Engineering, Math) education and less emphasis on the liberal arts. Much content of STEM is binary – yes/no, right/wrong.

However, the real world and real relationships are not so clear cut. Depending upon the topic, the “gray area“ between the binary poles can be substantial. Understanding how to operate in the gray area is critical for building relationships, and for the continued survival of civilization. 

Interestingly, understanding how to operate effectively in the gray area is also critical for many STEM situations. Engineering solutions tend to focus on a defined area or application. Yet, almost always the application operates in a much larger, more complex environment.

While the teaching of “systems engineering” begins to address the influence of other variables in that environment, to fully apply the benefits of systems engineering, engineers themselves need to be able to identify likely variables in the environment and their influence on the outcome.

Where does that broader perspective of a problem come from? Learning what is taught in the liberal arts.  Critical thinking comes from understanding interactions that are often based on “fuzzy” variables and “squishy” assumptions. Behaviors within an environment are not binary.

Without systems thinking, problems tend to be viewed as binary, which leads to a zero-sum game. In a binary, zero-sum game world, if one side wins, the other side must lose. In a binary world there is no such thing as “a rising tide lifts all boats.”  In a binary world, a win-win situation is not possible.

While more entries on AI are to come, a key point is if the “organization in charge” – company, political party, group, etc. – views the world with a binary, zero-sum mentality, then all decisions are based on someone, or some group always having to win and someone having to lose.  Such an attitude disenfranchises groups and inevitably leads to a revolution. END #523

Other Topics. Interested in more info about climate change, what’s required to electrify a fleet of cars/trucks, and an array of other topics, visit another page of this website, https://usrevolution5.com/jrd-thought-comments/

#522: Dumb and Dumber: Sledgehammer Efficiency and Tariffs

04 Friday Apr 2025

Posted by in Back Asswards Thinking, Economics, Societal Issues, Stupid Is as Stupid Does, Trump 47, Uncategorized

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Welcome to a discussion about the 5th Revolution in the US, which I’ve titled the “Revenge Revolution.” For more about the Revenge Revolution and the author, click “About the Author” tab.  Periodically I write a “sense check” about the status of the Revolution. The previous “sense check” was ENTRY #519. Yes, we are currently embroiled in the “Revenge Revolution.”

BEGIN ENTRY #522: Scene: you’ve decided that parts of your house need updating. The HVAC system seems a bit inefficient and probably should be updated. The roof might need a few repairs to prevent future leaks.

You are not sure what else might need to be improved. So, to help you call in someone who claims to be an expert in revamping systems that are supposedly outdated or could use some preventive maintenance. You and the self-proclaimed expert agree on a start date, and the expert arrives at the scheduled time.

The expert is accompanied by a team of people you have never met. Most are young and don’t look to have the credentials of someone in the skilled trades needed for the proposed scope of work.  You watch inquisitively as the work team unloads from the truck a set of tools of destruction – sledgehammers, chainsaw-like devices, crowbars, etc. – but no tools that you expected to be used for repairing and preventive maintenance. 

The expert tells the team to “Have at it,“ and you watch in horror as the team immediately begins destroying structural components of your house. As the expert gets ready to leave, you ask, “What’s going on here?“

Expert replies, “We’re going to make your house better.“ You reply, “But where are the plans? How do I know what you’re going to do? It looks as if you’re trying to tear the house down, not make improvements.“

“Don’t be concerned,” the alleged expert says, “we’ll rebuild everything later. But first we must tear up and tear out everything we don’t like. Step aside while the team makes your house more efficient with our sledgehammers and chainsaws.”

And so goes the approach Trump and the Muskovites are taking to “increase the efficiency” of your Federal government. The mantra of the Trump/Muskovites group has been, “Don’t plan, just break, then blame someone else and walk away.”

For those unfamiliar with Trump’s career, he has taken this same approach to virtually every major real estate project. The Trump Tower on 5th Avenue, for example, replaced one of the most beautiful buildings in midtown Manhattan. Do you think he tried to save any of the building and incorporate into Trump Tower? Of course not. Trump’s approach — demolish the building and then send the beautiful stonework to the dump. Fortunately, some of the stonework was saved thanks to a scrap dealer, but with no support from Trump.

As far as efficiency, virtually everyone agrees that most organizations, public and private, have some areas where efficiency could be improved. However, anyone with an ounce of brains knows that breaking or destroying something is relatively easy — give me a sledgehammer and chainsaw.  What takes longer and some serious thought is how to make an organization more efficient while maintaining its integrity, and keeping it running relatively smoothy during the transition. 

What Trump and Musk are doing to the Federal government might seem exciting to some MAGAts. But their approach to increasing efficiency is back asswards. Breaking something takes no brains. Further, breaking often has serious consequences that are hard to reverse. When a Federal agency is eviscerated, the result can increase the risk to national security.

“Oops, you mean, we just fired all the key people who guard the US’ nuclear weapons? And oops, you mean, we also deleted all their contact information? And, oops, since they all had top-secret clearances, the contact information isn’t in other databases?” (Yes, it is true.) How did Trump and Musk respond to such an egregious and inexcusable error? Ho hum. “DOD and the public, you need to get over it.  Everyone makes a minor mistake now and then.”

Whether or not you’re a Trump supporter, Trump and Musk have demonstrated they are incapable of managing the most basic tasks in government. Yes, managing an operation in the Federal government is far more complicated than operating a small family-owned real estate business or being a TV personality.

Managing an operation in the Federal in government is not like being some tech guru who thinks software solves all problems. 

If you still are happy with what Trump and Musk are doing, wait until your life is seriously disrupted by a non-functioning Federal agency that was effectively destroyed by the Trump regime. In the meantime, you’ll soon be reminded each day of the consequences of another “dumb-and-dumber” strategy – stiff virtually across-the-board tariffs for our best trading partners. Other than a select few examples, tariffs do not work, generate inflation and can lead to a severe recession and even Depression.

More on tariffs soon. In the meantime, take a look at the consequences of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930. END ENTRY #522

Other Topics. Interested in more info about climate change, what’s required to electrify a fleet of cars/trucks, and an array of other topics, visit another page of this website, https://usrevolution5.com/jrd-thought-comments/