Welcome to a discussion about the 5th Revolution in the US, which I’ve titled the “Revenge Revolution.” For more about the Revenge Revolution and the author, click “About the Author” tab.  Periodically I write a “sense check” about the status of the Revolution. The previous “sense check” was ENTRY #519. Yes, we are currently embroiled in the “Revenge Revolution.”

BEGIN ENTRY #523: AI has gotten a lot of ink in the past few years. Some people tout AI as the next major advancement in civilization, while others claim AI will accelerate the decline of civilization.  So, who’s right?

At this point, we don’t know. However, it seems possible that AI could reduce man’s (generic “man”) ability to think and ability to determine what is a reasonable solution to a problem. Yes, AI can help solve many problems. AI is an excellent tool for getting answers to questions.

The dilemma is whether or not the person asking AI for the answers needs to have a reasonably good understanding of the topic AI is being asked to address. Without that understanding, how does one know if the response is reasonable or AI is “hallucinating” – i.e., making up the answer. 

An example: in preparing for this blog entry, I asked AI the following “Draft a 2-page document describing how unreasonably high tariffs can affect the economy.” (Hint: the more precise the instructions to AI, the more likely you’ll get a reasonable response.)

AI’s response, which was provided in seconds, was, in my view, an excellent summary of the possible impact of unreasonably high tariffs. (Click link for AI response.)

Having studied economics and spent many years applying economics to guide critical business decisions helped provide me with a perspective to assess the credibility of the AI response. Without that education and experience, I would not have known to what extent the response was reasonable, or to what extent AI was hallucinating, which it does periodically.

The answer to the question, “Is AI a friend or foe?” will be greatly influenced by the extent to which society begins to substitute AI for basic learning. We are already experiencing some decline in the ability of the population to reason. In my view, that decline has been accelerated, in part, by the shift toward more emphasis on STEM (Science. Technology, Engineering, Math) education and less emphasis on the liberal arts. Much content of STEM is binary – yes/no, right/wrong.

However, the real world and real relationships are not so clear cut. Depending upon the topic, the “gray area“ between the binary poles can be substantial. Understanding how to operate in the gray area is critical for building relationships, and for the continued survival of civilization. 

Interestingly, understanding how to operate effectively in the gray area is also critical for many STEM situations. Engineering solutions tend to focus on a defined area or application. Yet, almost always the application operates in a much larger, more complex environment.

While the teaching of “systems engineering” begins to address the influence of other variables in that environment, to fully apply the benefits of systems engineering, engineers themselves need to be able to identify likely variables in the environment and their influence on the outcome.

Where does that broader perspective of a problem come from? Learning what is taught in the liberal arts.  Critical thinking comes from understanding interactions that are often based on “fuzzy” variables and “squishy” assumptions. Behaviors within an environment are not binary.

Without systems thinking, problems tend to be viewed as binary, which leads to a zero-sum game. In a binary, zero-sum game world, if one side wins, the other side must lose. In a binary world there is no such thing as “a rising tide lifts all boats.”  In a binary world, a win-win situation is not possible.

While more entries on AI are to come, a key point is if the “organization in charge” – company, political party, group, etc. – views the world with a binary, zero-sum mentality, then all decisions are based on someone, or some group always having to win and someone having to lose.  Such an attitude disenfranchises groups and inevitably leads to a revolution. END #523

Other Topics. Interested in more info about climate change, what’s required to electrify a fleet of cars/trucks, and an array of other topics, visit another page of this website, https://usrevolution5.com/jrd-thought-comments/