Category Archives: Back Asswards Thinking

#416. What Are They Thinking? Or, How Are They Thinking?

07 Monday Jun 2021

Posted by in Back Asswards Thinking, Causes of the Revolution, Societal Issues, Uncategorized

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Readers: The entries in this blog are built around the assumption there will be a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.  Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether a revolution in the US is possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Entry #400 was the most recent “sense check.” 

This past week I had two conversations that left me puzzled and bewildered, although I guess not surprised. One “conversation” consisted of a series of texts and the other occurred during a business call.

The first conversation was a follow-up to a birthday greeting I sent to someone I’ve known for 35+ years. We met when she was a student intern in one of the departments I managed. Sometime thereafter she asked me to be an advisor for her thesis.

Over the years we’ve stayed in touch, mostly chit-chat and rarely, if ever, politics.  Well, no politics that I remember until Trump.  Someplace along the way she migrated from being working-class to middle-class Democrat to a hard-right Trumpster. And the change in attitude wasn’t for any economic hardship.

I’ve given up trying to understand why she shifted political views because every time I’ve asked what I thought was an objective and rather innocuous question about Trump, the answer was filled with snippets from the far-right sheet of talking points.

So when I sent a birthday text recently I made sure the content read more like a Hallmark card with no reference to politics or even state of health.  The last message I sent several months ago mentioned we had gotten shots and asked if she had also.  The response was another series of texts telling me why vaccines were bad.

The response to the birthday message?  I should have known better.  “Thanks for the note” followed by another round of conspiracy stuff, this time focused on last November’s presidential election.  I was also informed not to watch any news on the broadcast networks or cable.  Even Fox was off limits.  These channels are trying to brainwash viewers.

Instead, I should watch news broadcasts on local channels. No mention, of course, that many local channels are owned by Sinclair Broadcasting, a company promoting far-right views.  Or, no mention that many allegedly local stories are either scripted by Sinclair or fed to local outlets by Sinclair and forced to broadcast. 

For national news, a credible source was some guy on an internet website who really told the truth.  Seriously?  How does one have a meaningful conversation about policy with someone who thinks like that?  

The second incident happened during a business call. We were discussing a product that could be used to help manage the transition from fossil fuel to 100% electric in transportation and homes/buildings.  The transition to 100% electric is a key element in plans to address climate change.

Part of the conversation was about the likely consequences of not addressing climate change aggressively and immediately. The response to my comments about likely consequences was something along the lines of “Predictions about the future are always wrong.”  As proof he noted that how wrong a prediction was made in the 1950s about life in the 21st Century.  What the prediction was I don’t know.

The implication, at least in my view, was that since predictions or forecasts are always wrong, one should not base behavior on such predictions. Rather, one should wait until it becomes clear what the outcome is going to be and then take action. Such an approach might work for whether to deploy an umbrella but it won’t work for climate change.  

Waiting until the effects of climate change become incredibly obvious is a formula for disaster.  By then the earth will have passed the tipping point and it will be far too late for any action to make a meaningful difference.  Think of taking action on climate change to jumping out of an airplane.  One can wait only so long to deploy the parachute.  Beyond the “tipping point” the outcome is the same – splat. 

In response to the comments about forecasts I mentioned virtually my entire career has included being responsible for some type of forecast, often longer term.  I also agreed there is one certainty about forecasts; yes, forecasts are always wrong.

However, the goal of a forecast is not be 100% correct but rather to minimize errors in estimates of key variables. My experience has been the most useful forecasts are guided by the 80:20 rule. Spend time making as accurate as possible the forecast for 20% for the variables that account for 80% of the outcome.  The remaining 80% of the variables that account for 20% of the outcome should receive some attention but are mostly noise.

For naysayers of forecasts, novices to forecasting, and conspiracy theorists it is easy to focus on errors in estimates of the 80% of variables that are the noise.  Focusing on the 80% allows one to develop a long list of items in the forecast that were wrong, thereby “proving” forecasts are of no value.  The naysayer group spends very little time evaluating the accuracy of the forecasts for the 20% of variables that matter.  Doing so would disprove whatever argument they are trying to make.

When discussing climate change, what are some key variables? One is understanding the major sources of CO2; another is understanding how CO2 is generated by that source.  A 3rd is understanding how the ecosystems will be affected as the Earth’s temperature rises or falls.

The list of practical solutions to climate change includes replacing fossil fuel with electricity or non-carbon fuel in transportation and homes/buildings.  While the solution is certainly feasible, even with available technology, what is unknown and frequently overlooked is how to ensure an adequate flow of electricity when the electricity is generated from renewable sources, primarily wind or solar.  Electricity from wind and solar is highly variable and unlike coal or nuclear which have a relatively constant flow of electrons.

Technology exists to store electrons. The unsolved problem, and one that needs to be forecasted reasonably accurately, is how to store enough electrons from solar and wind to make sure there is adequate amount of electricity available to meet peak-load demand.

Another head-scratching data point about “How Are They Thinking?” is a series of entries on Facebook.  One FB friend has repeatedly claimed Covid-19 is a hoax.  Further, the vaccines for Covid were being promoted by the government to control people’s behavior.  His solution to Covid-19?  Just avoid being infected.  How was never explained.  Besides, if someone contracted Covid, then no big deal since only a small percentage of people died. 

He further claimed the number of deaths due to Covid was greatly exaggerated and part of the plot by the “government” to control one’s behavior.  When I pointed out that during 2020 the total number of deaths, regardless of cause, was more than 500,000 above-normal – at least 3 and probably 4 standard deviations from the norm – he offered no response. I guess 500,000 people wanted to die early and thought the year 2020 was a good time to go.

Where do these examples leave us? The three people cited are all college educated and who should be reasonably rational in their thinking.  Somehow they have become irrational.  Early on in the Trump Administration I wrote that many of his ardent supporters appeared to have been brainwashed.  Although there is no clear answer how they became brainwashed – maybe watching the bloviators on Fox was enough – I’m even more convinced today of the brainwashing.  Otherwise, why would someone continue to promote theories with no hard data or any conceivable logic?   

Trying to “un-brainwash” this group of people likely cannot be accomplished before a portion of them take actions similar to storming  the Capitol or beginning widespread attempts to assassinate elected government officials and judges who are perceived not to support the Trump election fantasy.

Actions by Trump supporters does not bode well for mitigating a 5th US Revolution.  In fact, when history is written about the 21st Century teens and early 20’s, I think the conclusion will be that in 2021 the US had begun the 5th US Revolution, the Revenge Revolution. Historians will also note, and I hope I’m wrong about this forecast, the discord continued to intensify after 2021 until the fighting broke out a few years later.  More to come.

Booklets you might find interesting:

  • Revenge Revolution — description of what form the revolution might take, 20 01 07 Start of Revolution
  • Who took out the Donald?  Who/what groups are most likely to “take out” Trump? The booklet was written early in the Trump administration but still worth a read. Who Took Out the Donald Entries with Update
  • Working with Lee Iacocca after he left Chrysler, 2019Q3 Iacocca Personal Observations. 
  • GM EV1 — behind-the-scenes events affecting development and introduction of the GM EV1, the first modern electric vehicle. 2020Q1 GM EV-1 Story Behind the Story Booklet  Note: in January 2021, GM announced that by 2035 all light-duty cars and trucks sold by GM worldwide will be electric. “Automotive News” had a special section published Earth Day 2021 about the GM EV1. Lots of celebration about the engineering accomplishments, and rightfully so. Little, if any insight why the GM EV1 was cancelled.

#415 Personal Responsibility and Accountability. Where Have You Gone?

24 Monday May 2021

Posted by in Back Asswards Thinking, Causes of the Revolution, Societal Issues, Uncategorized

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Readers: The entries in this blog are built around the assumption there will be a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1. 

Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether a revolution in the US is possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Entry #400 was the most recent “sense check.” 

Personal responsibility and accountability, where have you gone? I’ve been struck over the past few weeks by what seems to be an ever increasing lack or maybe abdication of personal responsibility and personal accountability.

Among politicians, while Trump may be the most egregious example of someone who refuses to be personally responsible or accountable – it’s always someone else’s fault – the disease seems to have infected virtually the entire Republican Party. As noted in Entry #414, Republicans in the House of Representatives kicked out Liz Cheney from a leadership position because she had the temerity to tell the truth. Shame on you Liz for telling the truth.

As if such skewed thinking weren’t enough, most Republicans in the House voted against establishing a bipartisan commission – yes, an equal number of Republicans and Democrats – to explore causes and responsibility for the January 6, 2021 attack on the US Capitol.

Some Republicans claimed the attack was no different than an ordinary day with the usual throng of visitors. Other Republicans claimed the attack was really Democrats in disguise. Whatever the phony rationale, Republicans seem intent on not seeking the truth.

When it became clear the effort to establish a bipartisan commission would not pass the Senate, Kevin McCarthy, the leader of the Republicans in the House and who voted no to the commission, publicly and loudly proclaimed he would testify under oath. Such an outstanding display of personal responsibility and accountability.

Unfortunately for society the unwillingness to take responsibility and/or to be held accountable is not confined to often spineless politicians. It seems to be pervasive.

In several recent articles in the Charlotte Observer, there was data indicating the percentage of people being vaccinated by various categories.  One chart noted the percentage of blacks being vaccinated was lower than the percentage of whites. Some people quoted in the article implied the lower percentage was further evidence that systemic racism against blacks.

Hold on folks. Not every difference between blacks and whites indicates racism.  What about the percentage of black athletes vs white athletes, especially the NBA and NFL?  Seriously, back to Covid-19 inoculations, there has been ample time for everyone to get shots. While appointments were difficult to get initially, that is no longer the case.

Further, the number of available locations has expanded considerably.  On a personal note, my wife’s appointment location was moved from a clinic reasonably nearby to one on the west side of Charlotte. The new clinic, much larger and better equipped than the original clinic, was located in a predominantly black neighborhood.  The clinic also had ready access to frequent public transportation. For those located without ready access to public transportation, Uber and Lyft have been providing free rides to and from the clinic.

So, in this situation, who is not being responsible? The clinic is nearby, and the transportation is readily available.

Another example of “who should be responsible” is from actions by Mecklenburg County Commissioners.  The manager and commissioners of Mecklenburg County, which surrounds Charlotte and is a significant source of funding for the school system, stated they want to withhold more than 10% of the funds allocated for public schools until the School Board develops and details a plan that ensures student performance will improve.

Few disagree that measuring teaching skills against a reasonable standard is legitimate.  If the teacher is meeting the standard, then holding teachers accountable for student performance is not reasonable and unfair to the teacher. The people directly responsible for student performance are the student and the parents of the student. Making teachers directly accountable is a no-win situation and discourages people from becoming teachers. Apparently Mecklenburg County has never heard the saying, “you can lead a horse to water but you can’t make it drink.”

One more example, which is minor, but I think indicative of how widespread the problem of shirking responsibility has become.  Last week Sam’s Club was out of the birdseed mix that all the backyard critters seem to like best.  The clerk said to try ordering on online, which we did.  When the order was placed, the scheduled delivery date was six days.  The next day, FedEx said the delivery date was now COB the following day, a Friday.  Friday passes.  Next FedEx notice Saturday morning, delivery today.  Sunday morning, delivery today.  Finally.  Any updates or notices from FedEx there had been a delay?  Not until the delivery date passed.  Any reason given?  No.  Any apologies from FedEx?  No.  In the scheme of things, an annoyance.  In the larger context, indicative of the lack of willingness to be responsible.      

How do these examples link to the likelihood of a 5th US revolution, aka the Revenge Revolution? I think the unwillingness to take personal responsibility for something as simple as getting vaccinated, an unwillingness to acknowledge something as obvious as only an individual can decide whether to learn, or unwillingness to keep the customer informed, bodes ill for the willingness of the US populous to try and solve really serious problems facing the country.

How will the public respond to actions required and sacrifices required to help solve climate change? If people thought the backlash against non-mask wearers was bad, wait until the public begins to truly understand how much an individual’s actions can contribute to a carbon footprint that negatively affects climate change.

While there’s a lot of discussion inside the Beltway about infrastructure, voting rights, potential inflation, etc., as I noted in an earlier entry I think climate change will become the overwhelming focus in the near future. And who’s going to lead the discussion about and the effort to address climate change?

The leaders won’t be the current set of elected representatives, especially those in the Senate.  The people who are going to lead the charge are the ones who will be most negatively affected by climate change.  Look out, here come the younger generations. Update: 05/25/2021 — An example of the kind of climate-change demands that we might experience in the future — demands by workers at Amazon that the company end pollution from its operations disproportionately affect people of color. https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/amazon-shareholders-demand-end-pollution-hitting-people-color-hardest-n1268413

Booklets you might find interesting:

  • Who took out the Donald?  Who/what groups are most likely to “take out” Trump? The booklet was written early in the Trump administration but still worth a read. Who Took Out the Donald Entries with Update

  • Revenge Revolution — description of what form the revolution might take, 20 01 07 Start of Revolution

  • Working with Lee Iacocca after he left Chrysler, 2019Q3 Iacocca Personal Observations. 

  • GM EV1 — behind-the-scenes events affecting development and introduction of the GM EV1, the first modern electric vehicle. 2020Q1 GM EV-1 Story Behind the Story Booklet  Note: in January 2021, GM announced that by 2035 all light-duty cars and trucks sold by GM worldwide will be electric. “Automotive News” had a special section published Earth Day 2021 about the GM EV1. Lots of celebration about the engineering accomplishments, and rightfully so. Little, if any insight why the GM EV1 was cancelled.

    • #411: “You Can Lead a Whore to Culture but You Can’t Make Her Think.”

    11 Sunday Apr 2021

    Posted by in Back Asswards Thinking, Gov't Policy, Societal Issues, Stupid Is as Stupid Does, Uncategorized

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    Readers: The entries in this blog are built around the assumption there will be a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1. 

    Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether a revolution in the US is possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Entry #400 was the most recent “sense check.” 

    ENTRY #411 BEGINS: The title is the response from the writer Dorothy Parker when asked to use the word “horticulture” in a sentence.  Parker‘s famous reply seems to appropriate to describe most elected Republicans inside the Washington Beltway.

    I promised in Entry #410 to quit addressing how the Republican Party was imploding.  I also promised to quit offering suggestions how Democrats could help Republicans rebuild, or start a new, more principled Republican Party.

    Those promises certainly have not stopped inane actions by members of the Republican Party.  This past week we experienced another reason why behavior of elected Republicans is consistent with Parker‘s description of a whore. Republicans have quit thinking.  Senate Minority leader Mitch McConnell promised yet again to fight every aspect of the Biden administration‘s infrastructure proposal, even though the proposal has strong support among Republican voters.

    McConnell must have said to himself, “Why should we rich Republicans listen to our constituents?  Our constituents are little people who really don’t matter.  They should be treated like we treat Democrats.  Let them eat old, stale fruitcake.”

    Let’s discuss what infrastructure is and why infrastructure is important. First the definition of infrastructure has always included more than roads and bridges, despite the claims by Republicans. Some examples.  In the mid-19th Century, the US government was involved in making it possible for railroads to expand in all regions and traverse the country.  Along with railroads came support for that new-fangled communication medium called the telegraph.

    Early in the 20th Century, the federal government was involved in building roads and bridges for autos as well as helping build the infrastructure to support another new communications medium called the telephone and another communications medium called radio. Yes, and the government was instrumental in developing places for those things that fly, called airplanes.

    Mid-20th Century the Federal government funded the development of the interstate highway system and managed yet another communications medium, television. By the end of the 20th Century, the government was helping promote a communications medium it had funded directly, the Internet.

    In addition to all the hardware, the government help fund software. Back to the 19th Century, early 20th century. What software infrastructure did the government fund? Free primary and secondary education for everyone, regardless of income. The government also funded higher education, providing land grants to help start many colleges and universities.

    So the idea that infrastructure includes only roads and bridges and a few airports, and that infrastructure does not include education or communications it’s not only hogwash but inconsistent with two centuries of actions by the Federal government.  I guess McConnell and gang hope that no one remembers one iota of US history.

    Another resistance point to infrastructure by Republicans is supposed cost.  Is the Biden administration infrastructure proposal expensive? Yes, but all major infrastructure programs supported by the Federal government have been expensive.  Have these infrastructure programs resulted in some tax increases?  Yes.  (We’ll save for another entry any discussion about the hypocrisy of the Republicans’ support for tax cuts and a higher deficit but then claim how Biden’s proposal will increase taxes and add to the deficit.) 

    What seems baffling to me, and many others, is why in the past decade or so, Republicans have refused to support expansion and/or even repair of critical infrastructure?  Infrastructure is a necessary component of national security and economic expansion, both of which Republicans claim to be basic tenets of their Party.  Yet, during the four years of the Trump administration and during the eight years of the Obama administration, Republicans offered no support for addressing infrastructure issues.

    Maintaining infrastructure in many ways is like maintaining a house or car. The longer one waits to repair an issue, the higher the cost.

    With their repeated refusal to support the Biden administration’s widely popular infrastructure proposal, combined with their continued support for state legislators suppressing voter rights, Republicans have made it nearly impossible to govern the country for the people. The behavior of Republican leadership, and apparently virtually all Republicans in Congress, focuses on placating the hard-core right.  Focusing on this narrow segment of the population and refusing the consider ideas that benefit the majority, including most Republican voters, increases the likelihood of a more severe 5th revolution in the US, aka the Revenge Revolution.

    Unless you’ve been in a cave the last few years, the Revenge Revolution appears to have started, in retrospect a bit earlier than I expected. The election of Trump could be considered the first major event of the Revenge Revolution.  Another major event was the storming of the US Capitol.

    The third major event will be more intense and more violent than storming the Capitol. When and where that event occurs is TBD, but it is coming.

    Back to the title of this entry. “You can lead a whore to culture, but you can’t make her think.”  Let’s change Parker’s quote slightly to read, “You can lead Republicans to culture but you can’t make them think.”  Stay tuned.

    Booklets you might find interesting: 

    #410: Republicans Accelerating the Revenge Revolution

    04 Sunday Apr 2021

    Posted by in Back Asswards Thinking, Gov't Policy, Societal Issues, Stupid Is as Stupid Does, Uncategorized

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    Readers: The entries in this blog are built around the assumption there will be a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1. 

    Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether a revolution in the US is possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Entry #400 was the most recent “sense check.” 

    ENTRY #410 BEGINS: Entries #407-#409 focused on the need for and how to begin rebuilding the Republican Party. Legislation proposed or enacted by several states has left little doubt about the need for a new Republican Party.

    After losing the 2020 presidential election, did Republicans throughout the US focus on offering new ideas to attract voters?  No!  Instead of expanding the appeal of the Party, Republicans made being a Republican even more illogical for all but the hard right.  Since the election, Republicans have focused on making voting more difficult.  Well, making it more difficult only if you’re not white.  As if restricting voting weren’t enough for Jim Crow, the Georgia legislature passed and the Governor signed a bill that allows the legislature to discard election results in Georgia counties that the legislators don’t like.

    Oh, that county voted for a Democrat?  Well, there must be fraud in that county so let’s throw out the results and declare the Republican the winner.  Henceforth, we Republican legislators think it is our right to decide who wins and who loses elections in Georgia. You voters, especially “those people,” are not worthy of deciding.

    And while we’re at it, why don’t we make it a crime in Georgia for you to share some water with one of “those people” who is standing in line to vote.  Gee, we almost forgot.  Want an absentee ballot?  Let’s make getting an absentee ballot more difficult, especially if you live in the wrong neighborhood.  And then let’s restrict the number of drop-off locations. 

    If you decide to protest, even the most mild of protests, we’ll arrest you.  You know, we legislators had to arrest that Black state representative who knocked on the door while the esteemed Georgia governor was signing this necessary legislation.  You know, don’t you, she’s a terrorist!  She’s more dangerous than any of the patriots who tried to save the country by invading the US Capitol January 6.  I, mean, she wasn’t armed but she had that look of evil in her eye.  She could have killed everyone in the room with a single swipe of her hand.  She deserved to be arrested, handcuffed and booked.

    Like many citizens, I was frustrated, but not surprised by these actions in Georgia.  I also was prompted to ask myself, “Who was the last Republican president that had some ideas to improve the country for everyone?“  Trump? No. Bush 43? No. Remember Bush 43 try to privatize Social Security. Bush 41? Maybe but nothing stands out.

    Reagan? No. Reagan was all about tax cuts for the wealthy and trashing those mythical welfare queens. Remember, according to Reagan, government is not the solution; government is the problem. Gerald Ford? OK guy but he was really in cleanup mode as president. Most of his accomplishments were as Speaker of the House.

    Whoa Bubba, Now, we’re back to Nixon.  Yes Nixon, the Republican president who resigned in disgrace and was pardoned by his successor.  As bad as Nixon was for lots of reasons, he also signed legislation creating the Environmental Protection Agency. He proposed affirmative action in the Federal government and began diplomatic relations with China.  Much of the US population benefitted from those actions. 

    One has to go back to Eisenhower for a legislation by a Republican that benefitted the vast majority of Americans and fundamentally changed society – creation of the Interstate Highway system. 

    Given the nearly 50-year lack of Republican presidents shepherding meaningful legislation that benefitted the populous, why should anyone be surprised about the behavior of today’s Republicans? The problem for Republicans is the core of the Party is old white guys who spend the day watching Fox.  These guys are dying and the younger generations aren’t buying the same line of BS.

    Given the obvious outcome of this approach, has the attitude of Republican leadership been to try and change the message of the Republican Party? Try and make the message more consistent with Eisenhower and Nixon? No, let'[s not change. Let’s just double down on voter suppression of anyone who doesn’t watch Fox or isn’t white.

    A good timely example is Republican’s opposition to the Biden administration proposal to radically upgrade travel and communications infrastructure in the US.  The proposal has widespread approval ratings among the voters, with some polls indicating 50% support among Republican voters.  So, what does Mitch McConnell, ranking Republican in the Senate proclaim?  The hell with what voters want. I, Mitch McConnell, king proclaim no Republican will support this proposal.   Mitch, here’s a piece of advice, go see a proctologist and have your head relocated to the proper spot on your body.

    The strategy of McConnell and the Republican Party on the infrastructure proposal, climate change and many other proposals that could benefit a wide swath of the US population is like trying to bail out a leaky boat with a coffee cup. The problem is the leak continues to get bigger. You might stave off the inevitable for a while, but the boat is going to sing sink. 

    Republican actions are also likely to increase the likelihood and even intensify the Revenge Revolution. People who are suppressed are not going to stand by idly by, especially if they’ve experienced not being suppressed.  Just in case you Republicans haven’t heard, Jim Crow left town.

    You Republicans also are starting to lose the business community. Major League baseball announced the 2021 All-Star game will be relocating outside Georgia.  Companies with HQ in Georgia and Texas, which is in the process of passing Georgia-like legislation, have publicly stated strong opposition the vote-suppression measures.  Among a long list of companies are Coca-Cola, Delta Airlines, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, Dell Computer and a growing list of others.

    As far as members of the working class who supported Trump and Republicans, Biden has done more for the working class in less than 3 months in office than Trump did in four years. At some point, and I thought it would be a long time ago, the working class is going to wake up and realize how little the Republican Party has done for them. An egregious example of how Trump and the Republican Party screwed the little guy is detailed in a NYT article titled “How Trump Steered Supporters into Unwitting Donations.”

    So, who’s going to be left in the Republican Party?  Some old white guys and the younger white supremacists.  Principled Republicans have no place to go and Republican leadership in Congress is unwilling to recognize reality.  Democrats need to reach out to the more principled Republicans. Most Republicans in Congress are likely to resist the offer, but at some point the Romney‘s, Murkowski‘s and Collins’ of the world will begin to acknowledge and accept their responsibility to form a new principled Republicans Party and that Democrats can help, even if behind the scenes.

    Booklets you might find interesting: 

    #399. The Donald and Charlie. Two Peas from the Same Pod. (Part #4)

    17 Thursday Dec 2020

    Posted by in Back Asswards Thinking, Causes of the Revolution, Education Issues, Post Trump Presidency, Societal Issues, Uncategorized

    ≈ Leave a comment

    Readers: some of the dialogue in this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Entries addressing events in the the future assume there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.

    Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether in the next few years, a revolution in the US is still possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Most recent sense check, ENTRY #387.   Next Sense Check will be Entry #400.

    Some of the entries are part of a series.  Several series are available as easy-to-read booklets for download:

    Beginning #378 the entries began focusing on a post-Trump administration and a post-Coronavirus world.  We’re headed to a post-Trump world and post-COVID world, even if a ways away.  The premise of a 5th US revolution in the 2020’s decade has not changed.  Comments and suggestions welcome.

    ENTRY #399: The past few entries have attempted to understand the cause of and whether to attempt to solve cognitive dissonance among many Trump supporters. The issue is not about different political philosophies. A democratic society should have at least two strong political parties. The difference is trying to understand why so many Trump supporters are willing to sacrifice the basic tenets of democracy for a known wannabe autocrat.

    What does Trump offer that has created a cult-like following? When one steps back and analyzes the data, the Trump cult is getting nothing in return for following the Donald. So why follow the Donald? What is the appeal; what is the quid-pro-quo?

    Despite no obvious benefit, at least to rational thinkers, why does the Trump cult do whatever the Donald wants? The Trump cult supports his actions even when the actions are contrary to the best interest of the followers.

    It’s as if Trump is like the Great Oz, “I say the coronavirus is like the flu. You don’t need a mask.” And the followers don’t wear a mask. Or the Great Oz says, “Send money to me to help fight a stolen election.” And the cult sends money. Or the Great Oz says “Support a gigantic tax break for the wealthy and the benefits will trickle down to you.” And the cult believes in voodoo economics, even though the Federal deficit has ballooned and the children/grandchildren of the cult will be paying for the wealth transfer.

    In some ways Trump reminds me of Charlie. Reminds me not of Charlie Tuna, although Trump’s body profile looks similar. But reminds me of Charlie Manson. Often times Trump seems as maniacal and crazy as Manson.

    If you think the comparison to Manson is extreme, consider Trump’s actions to suppress efforts to control the pandemic. Also, consider the claims about the White House intentionally distorting info from CDC re the severity of the virus. Now, count the number of unnecessary deaths by Trump’s actions and compare the number to Charlie’s death toll. Still think the comparison is unfair?

    As far as members of the cult, at least the women who hung around Charlie Manson, got satisfied sexually. Those who hang around Trump only get screwed economically.

    How does the US society begin to address and re-educate members of the Trump cult? I don’t think we should waste our time. The cult members have been brainwashed and the major protagonist will fade away by late spring 2021. Unfortunately, the essence of Trump’s message may not fade as quickly.

    Post inauguration, Trump will act like many bullies when their perceived power is taken away. He will melt like the Wicked Witch of the West. Oh, Trump might hold a few pep rallies and generate some noise, but nothing of any lasting consequence.

    If Trump understands one thing well, that one thing is how to take other people’s money. When he was in debt for the failing casinos, he declared bankruptcy and walked away leaving the banks with the debt. Since no US-based bank would deal with him, beginning in the late 1990’s, early 2000’s Trump turned to sources outside the US to fund purchases of golf courses and hotel properties. While in Charlotte, NC to visit one of the Trump golf courses, Don, Jr. bragged that the Russians had become Trump’s primary funding source. And you still wonder why Trump’s nice to the Russians?

    A recent example of using other people’s money was when it became clear that he was likely to lose the re-election to Biden. At that point Trump formed a PAC that was promoted to help him get re-elected in 2024 and to help finance the legal cost of lawsuits associated with what Trump kept promoting as the “rigged” 2020 presidential election.

    The reality is the PAC is Trump’s new piggybank. Donors likely didn’t read the fine print. After a small percentage is allocated to the RNC and some for legal costs for the frivolous lawsuits, Trump gets to keep the rest. The money will stay in the PAC although Trump will control the disbursement of funds, including use for personal expenses. Keeping funds in the PAC should protect the PAC from creditors, who will likely force Trump into bankruptcy when the $400+ million loans on his properties come due in the next few years.

    Whether the PAC funds can be protected from judgements for fraud is problematic. The State of New York has been investigating the Trump organization and Trump personally for tax fraud and possibly other crimes. The investigations may lead to indictments soon after Trump leaves office. State crimes are not overridden by a presidential pardon. Oops.

    To convince cult members he will keep promoting his message, Trump has claimed he will create a new cable channel once out of office. The claim seems to be another ploy to attract funds from the ne’er-do-well supporters, who can least afford it. Trump will need an outlet since most credible media, save a couple of bloviators on Fox, have started focusing on the Biden administration’s plans to address mounting economic and social problems.

    Like Charlie Manson’s followers, some of Trump’s supporters will stay in the cult no matter the circumstances or the evidence against the cult leader. Most followers, however, soon will migrate to another fringe Republican candidate who probably will be more charismatic than Trump but spew the same BS.

    The biggest problem for the Republican Party is Trump’s legacy and how to recover from it. The damage to the credibility of government and the democracy caused by Trump’s corruption, cronyism and complacency has been significant.

    For the Republican Party in particular, how long will a substantial portion of the Party believe the dis-information and fantasies, whether promoted by Trump or a follow-on Trump? How can the Republican Party put forth a credible platform of governance beyond “Just Say No” to whatever Biden or Democrats propose? Without a more reasonable platform the appeal of the Republican Party will continue to shrink.

    A shrinking and ineffective Republican Party could become a major contributor to a 5th US Revolution, aka the Revenge Revolution? On the optimistic side it will take 10-15 years to repair the damage to the Federal agencies and the credibility of the government caused by Trump and complicit Republican Senators, Representative and state governors. During the period of repair, the chances of unrest increase. Trump cultists could be persuaded to revolt, whether or not Trump is still around.

    For many years a small group in Texas has promoted secession. That group and the Trump cultists appear to share many of the same characteristics. The secession movement could move beyond the obvious candidates of former Confederate states. A broader secession movement could find support in the upper Midwest – for example in the northern part of Lower Michigan – as well as a number of other Midwest and mountain states.

    The secession movement could grow even stronger if Biden steps down after one term, which seems likely, and Kamala Harris then is elected president. Given the harassment and death threats by Trump loyalists of the female elected officials, especially in Michigan – Governor, Attorney General and Secretary of State – the Trump loyalists likely would consider stronger action against a Black female president.

    As noted periodically in these entries, a well-coordinated widespread guerilla-warfare like attack could cause significant damage to property and result in a number of deaths. Think of Charlie Mason’s Helter-Skelter attack but on a much larger scale. The disruption would create significant angst among the general population. Once the guerilla warfare started, unless the federal and state governments quickly quelled the attacks, the country could start to spin out of control.

    More about the possible Revenge Revolution in entry #400.

    #377. What’s the Con Man Hiding?

    05 Sunday Apr 2020

    Posted by in Back Asswards Thinking, Diversions, Post Trump Presidency, Stupid Is as Stupid Does, Uncategorized

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    Readers: this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.

    Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether in the next few years, a revolution in the US is still possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Most recent sense check, Entry #365.  

    Some of the entries are part of a series.  Several series are available as easy-to-read booklets for download:

    Prelude: there is an endless number of inconsistencies in information from the Trump administration about the spread of the coronavirus and/or actions to mitigate the spread. For this blog entry we take a look at trying to understand why Trump behaves the way he does.  What’s really behind his behavior?

    ENTRY #377 BEGINS:  Last week I ended the entry expressing hope that the experience and sacrifices associated with the coronavirus would help bring the US populace closer together. Being closer, in turn, would reduce the severity of the likely Revenge Revolution. Behavior by most of the public this past week seems to reinforce that hope.

    What is far less clear is understanding the behavior and decisions by Trump. You have to ask yourself, “Why such behavior?” It makes no sense.

    My training in undergrad and grad school and most jobs in my professional career have been to analyze data and then forecast events/outcomes. The challenge with forecasting is to articulate reasonable, actionable actions before the situation becomes obvious and more difficult to control. In addition, recommended actions that provide the most lead time often are necessarily, but also may be based on seemingly disparate data points.

    Those who make predictions understand their forecasts are almost always wrong. Naysayers and “Monday-morning quarterbacks” love to nitpick and point out errors in the predictions. However, those who make decisions based on predictions understand that a good, actionable prediction doesn’t have to be 100% correct. A good prediction only needs to presents reasonably accurate outcomes for the most relevant variables before the situation becomes obvious and actions to control the situation less effective.

    With that background, let’s turn to the behavior of Donald Trump as president. From my perspective there is something or maybe a set of variables driving his behavior that is not obvious. If one steps back and analyzes the possible consequences of the behavior, the likely outcomes of Trump’s actions seem contrary to the best interests of the United States. So, why such behavior?

    Yes, Trump’s narcissistic. Yes, Trump’s crude, rude and a bully. Yes, he’s under educated and lazy. And, yes, he’s a wannabe Mafia Don. But none of those traits explains his decisions in certain key situations and his relationship with certain people.

    Following is top-of-mind list of behavior and/or decisions that to me are inexplicable. With a bit of work, the list would be at least five times as long. Here’s the very short list:

    1. Post-inaugural closed-door meeting in the White House with the Russian ambassador, a known spy. After the meeting the transcript was destroyed. Why?
    2. Public and intense alienation of NATO allies while publicly courting Putin. Why?
    3. Refusing to release tax returns. Then, when ordered to provide tax returns to a Congressional committee, which is written in the tax code, refuses to do so and takes case to court. Why?
    4. When signing the $2 trillion coronavirus stimulus, adding an “executive exclusion” that claims the House of Representatives does not have the right of oversight for the expenditures and that he, Trump, will provide oversight. Why?
    5. Overruling vigorous protests by the FBI and CIA and issuing son-in-law Jared Kushner a top secret clearance. The agencies indicated Kushner’s behavior and associations disqualified him from such a clearance. What about the son-in-law’s behavior is so shady?
    6. Praising Navy SEAL Gallagher and then awarding him the Presidential Medal of Freedom when there was overwhelming evidence of criminal wrongdoing. Why go against the recommendations of the military?
    7. Trash-talking Navy Captain Brett Crozier of the aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt for trying to protect his crew from the coronavirus. Unlike Gallagher, Captain Crozier was praised as a hero by officers and enlisted sailors. Why praise Gallagher and trash-talk Crozier?
    8. Appointing cabinet officials with clear conflicts of interests, starting with General Flynn and his interactions with Russia and Turkey. Trump was informed of Flynn’s conflicts before the appointment, yet went ahead. Most of the Cabinet appointees have little or no experience in the department. In addition, Trump has consistently appointed “acting” staff members, apparently to avoid having the person be subjected to review by the Senate. Why?
    9. Claiming that he (Trump) had influenced the Saudis and the Russians to agree to raise oil prices. Just a few days before claiming he helped raise oil prices, Trump claimed that lower oil prices were like a tax cut for consumers. Whatever Trump offered the Saudis and the Russians didn’t work since the “deal” has been delayed. What was in this for Trump?
    10. Refusal to have the federal government take the lead in coordinating a response to the coronavirus. Only after extreme pressure did Trump invoke the Defense Production Act, which forced companies to make certain products and then sell the products to the Federal government at a certain price. But rather than the Federal government taking possession, Trump directs the companies to ship the products to private distributors, who are allowed to resell the products to the various states, often at 10x the price paid by the Federal government. Why?

    There are many other examples, including the behavior of Attorney General Barr. But in each case one must ask, why? If any of these actions were part of a presidential campaign platform, would Trump have been elected? Obviously not. Who would vote for a candidate, for example, who says, “I’m going to insult NATO allies, and especially insult the English, French and Germans. Then I’m going to cozy up to a known enemy of the United States, the Russians.”

    Here’s my take on Trump’s behavior and no one should be surprised. The Russians, for sure, likely the Saudis, and maybe the Chinese have Trump by the short hairs. Why? Because of backroom unreported financial deals, which likely involve laundering money. Recall, the only bank that would lend Trump money after his series of bankruptcies and defaulting on payments was Deutsche Bank. Which bank has been indicted and fined for laundering money? (Guess Deutsche Bank.) Who did Trump appoint as Commerce Secretary? None other than Wilbur Ross, the former chairman of Cyprus Bank, a bank notorious for laundering money.

    Don’t be fooled by Trump’s bluster and claim that he’s tough on the Russians and Chinese. Look behind the curtain and see the sanctions against the Russians are a farce. The tariffs against Chinese goods are more show than substance. Think about this. Could the tariffs have been part of a deal where Trump agreed to walk away from the Trans-Pacific Partnership? The agreement would have strengthened America’s influence in Asia. By walking away, did Trump let the Chinese begin to dominate trade in Southeast Asia in exchange for some payment to Trump?

    Even without his tax returns, there’s enough evidence to indicate Trump is up to his eyeballs in debt. Trump, Jr even bragged at the private club Trump bought north of Charlotte that the Russians were the source of money for many Trump projects. There’s enough evidence to suggest the Saudis have also provided cash to Trump.

    Before the coronavirus, cash flow at many Trump properties was declining, and in some cases, cash flow was negative. The drop-off in cash flow associated with the Coronavirus has made the situation much worse. On April 4, the Trump Organization announced layoffs of 1,500 people. And more layoffs are likely to come.

    Let’s pause for now and just ask ourselves, why in Trumpland does everything seem backwards? Why in Trumpland does black look like white? Why in Trumpland does down look like up? Why is irrational considered rational? And endless other dichotomies.

    Over the next week, step back and view Trump’s remarks in the context of the questions raised and why everything seems backwards. Stepping back might provide some interesting insight, or at least raise more questions. To be continued.

    #368. The Big Bang Theory. Explosion of Political Ethics Inside the Beltway.

    27 Monday Jan 2020

    Posted by in Back Asswards Thinking, Causes of the Revolution, Societal Issues, Stupid Is as Stupid Does, Uncategorized

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    Readers: this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.

    Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether in the next few years, a revolution in the US is still possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Most recent sense check, Entry #365.  

    If you want to a diversion, easy-to-read booklets for download.  These include:

    ENTRY #368 BEGINS.  Normally when someone mentions The Big Bang Theory, the reference is to the formation of the universe. The Big Bang Theory might also be applied to political ethics in Washington.

    The impeachment trial of Donald Trump has left me stunned and angry. Stunned not by what Trump has done – for decades Trump has flagrantly violated the law and many social norms – but stunned by the lack of moral character among Republican Senators.  Whether you think Trump should be removed from office or not, everyone should be stunned at how Republican Senators are refusing to even acknowledge publicly that Trump’s behavior was outside the norms for a democratic government.

    Excuse me Republicans, since when is it okay to obstruct justice? Since when is it okay to insult publicly people who have put themselves in harm’s way to protect the United States? Since when is it okay to state publicly that you believe the remarks of a leader of a known enemy of the US, Russia, are more credible than the information from the US intelligence community?  When did such behavior become acceptable?

    My formative years were spent in Central Illinois. The area then, and now, was definitely what one could call the Land of Lincoln.

    While others might consider my remembrance naïve, everyone seemed to know and agree on what was right and what was wrong. Understanding right from wrong seems to be understood by all classes of people from all different religions and ethnic backgrounds.  Yes, there were some issues with gray areas but not many.

    I’d like to think those values have stayed with me and my fellow citizens. The area had a social/political attitude that Bush 43 described as “compassionate conservatism.”  If someone or some family needed help, assistance was provided very discreetly. Further, most everyone seemed fiscally conservative. Even those with far more money than their neighbors were conservative in displaying their wealth.

    Doubtless, residents of Central Illinois were not alone in being able to understand right from wrong.  Highly likely that many other areas of the country had similar attitudes. How many other “Leave-It-to-Beaver” towns were there across the country?

    Given that reference point, what’s been displayed this week in Washington by Republican Senators indicates that the attitude and understanding of right and wrong, which made America great versus many other countries, has exploded.  Exploded just like the Big Bang.

    Why have Republican Senators decided they can no longer distinguish right from wrong? What has become so complicated in making this distinction?

    If leaders of this country are not willing to state publicly what behavior and actions are right and what behaviors are wrong, then the US is headed for a dictatorship.  In dictatorships, citizens no longer have a say in determining what’s right and what’s wrong.  The dictator decides.

    Stating publicly a president’s behavior is wrong does not automatically require supporting a vote to remove the president from office. When a child misbehaves, the punishment is a function of the degree of misbehavior. Same with deciding about the punishment for a president misbehaving.  Not all types of misbehavior demand removal from office.

    So once again, why can’t Republican Senators seemingly distinguish right from wrong?  Are these Republican Senators so afraid to stand before their constituents and declare, “Trump’s behavior is wrong? My oath of office is to uphold the Constitution. Based on the evidence presented, I thought the president should (should not) be removed from office.”

    What’s so difficult about making such a statement? Not every constituent will be pleased with your decision, but at least the vast majority of people will respect your integrity. And, you know what? I’ll bet you get reelected for being…yikes, an honest politician.

    The effect of the Big Bang, whether talking about the formation of the universe or behavior of politicians, maybe like squeezing toothpaste from a tube. Once the action is taken, it’s nearly impossible to return to the former state.

    While the US can’t go back to the “Leave-It-to-Beaver” days, the populous can begin to demand politicians behave within the bounds of what is considered right and wrong. And, as a populous let’s not get sidetracked that only certain religions have the answer to what is right and wrong.  For every major religion, the major tenets are essentially the same for guiding what is right/wrong.  The US Constitution is also a great guide.

    Unfortunately, since the Big Bang has left us with the toothpaste dilemma, the only way that seems feasible to jolt society and politicians back to some kind of normalcy is a revolution. Let’s hope the damage from the revolution is relatively mild.  Better still, let’s hope I’m wrong and we find another way.

     

    #363 Connect Just Two Dots. Connecting Nine Not Necessary.

    15 Sunday Dec 2019

    Posted by in Back Asswards Thinking, Societal Issues, Stupid Is as Stupid Does, Uncategorized

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    Readers: this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.

    Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether in the next few years, a revolution in the US is still possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Most recent sense check, Entry #332.  An update coming later in December.

    If you want to a diversion, there are two easy-to-read booklets you might want to read.  One is about my experiences working with Lee Iacocca after he left Chrysler.  Another describes some behind-the-scenes events affecting development and introduction of the GM EV1, the first modern electric vehicle. The third is a longer booklet about the coming technology tsunami and the implications for the US.

    Entry #363 Begins.  Ever been challenged to connect nine (9) dots in a square with four (4) lines without lifting your pencil? The solution requires one to put away conventional thinking and be a bit more open minded. (See solution at end of entry.)

    This past week Republicans in the House of Representatives, and based on public comments apparently Republicans in the Senate as well, demonstrated being incapable of connecting not nine dots or connecting even two dots. I mean, how much intellectual capacity does it take to connect two dots?

    While Republican members of the Judiciary Committee might have a different opinion in private, during the hearings about the impeachment, they clearly demonstrated an oath to uphold the behavior of King Trump and not an oath to uphold the US Constitution. Republicans on the House Judiciary Committee, and earlier Republicans on the Intelligence Committee, made lots of noise about process but offered no credible evidence disputing the charges justifying the impeachment of Trump. If some of the Republican members actually believed what they said during the hearings, then they are incapable of connecting even two dots.

    No one, especially Republicans in Congress, should be surprised at Trump’s behavior. Trump has a long, public history of lying, cheating and illicit activities. There is also highly credible evidence of a multi-year, possibly decades-long financial association with Russia.

    Why are Republican members of the House so afraid of supporting the truth? If the Republican members are afraid of a Trump tweet and/or possibly losing a primary because they upheld the Constitution, then these members do not belong in Congress.

    In fact, based on the legal definition, these Republican members appear to have committed treason. By supporting Trump, instead of the Constitution, these Republican members have aided and abetted the enemy, Russia.

    Here’s a question the House Republicans…in fact all of us…need to answer. I’ve asked a question before but it seems worth repeating. Assume everything about the Trump Administration is the same – Trump’s behavior, Executive Orders, tweets, crony cabinet members, insults to allies, support for Russia, a growing economy with an ever-growing deficit, and much more. The only change is that rather than being a Republican, Trump is a Democrat.

    Republicans, would you still support Trump?

    Democrats, would you still oppose Trump?

    Let’s take Republicans on the Judiciary Committee. I’ll bet $1,000 to a stale donut the answer from the Republicans would be “No, I wouldn’t support Trump if he were a Democrat. Not on your life!”

    If you are a Republican and you would still support Trump as a Democrat, then I suggest you find a new country to live in. Try going to Russia, or North Korea. Find yourself a country with a good strong man leader.

    The US does not need people who are loyal to wannabe King Trump who breaks the law and ignores the Constitution. If you support Trump you are supporting the destruction of the very fabric that has held the US together and made it different from other countries. We welcome your ideas on how to make the US better. We don’t welcome your worship and loyalty to a known lawbreaker.

    Supporting Trump is the same as supporting a thug and or a robber. In case you’re still having trouble connecting two dots, Trump and his family are stealing money from you and your children. Ever ask yourself, “If the economy is so good, why is the deficit continuing to grow so quickly?” Forget the Trump response, “Must be Obama’s fault.” No it’s Trump’s fault.

    The reason the deficit is growing so quickly is simple – the effects of Trump and the spineless Republicans who supported the tax cut. A tax cut that was designed not to benefit the middle class or the poor but to benefit the rich. Trump is giving your money to the rich.

    In periods of economic expansion the deficit should be declining, not increasing. You, my Republican friends, are getting screwed by Trump and Republicans in Congress, and for some reason you cannot connect the two dots between the economy and the deficit. It is not hard to understand what’s happening.

    Let’s try one more. According to Trump, the FBI and the CIA are “scum.” Go ahead and cheer for your boy Donald as he makes this claim. Then ask yourself, “Why would Trump be saying that? What does he have against the FBI?”

    He denigrates the integrity of law enforcement because he’s a crook. Trump has no interest in trying to tweak some of the procedural changes necessary at the FBI and CIA. Trump’s intent is to make you believe the FBI and the CIA are out to get him.  And you’re falling for the trap.

    Another question. First, assume all the facts about Russian interference in the 2016 election campaign are the same, except that Russia supported Clinton, not Trump. Would the FBI still be scum?

    Of course not! You’d scream and shout the FBI should be doing more to convict Clinton. You’d claim the FBI was too soft on crime!

    So Republicans, you need to wake up and connect just two dots. Dot #1 is Trump as president. Dot #2 is corruption, lying and cheating and stealing.

    If you want a president who lies, cheats and steals, then Trump is your guy. But be careful. Not supporting the impeachment of a president where there is overwhelming evidence of lying, cheating and stealing is setting the standard to allow future presidents to behave the same way with no repercussions.

    So when your kids and/or grandkids ask why you supported Trump, please be honest and tell them the truth. “Kids and grandkids, I supported Trump because wanted do my part to help destroy democracy in the US. I wanted to make sure the wealthy got even more money and the middle class was destroyed. I wanted to make sure there was a huge Federal debt so my children and grandchildren could pay more money to the wealthy who held Treasury bonds.” I’m sure your kids and grandkids will be very proud of what you’ve done for them.

    Solution to connecting nine dots with four lines

    #358. Stupid Is as Stupid Does? Brainwashed? Foreign Agent?

    11 Monday Nov 2019

    Posted by in Back Asswards Thinking, Post Trump Presidency, Stupid Is as Stupid Does, Uncategorized

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    Readers: this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.

    Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether in the next few years, a revolution in the US is still possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Most recent sense check, Entry #332.  

    Entries the past several months have been an intentional diversion from the craziness in Washington. Starting with Entry #352 put us back inside the Beltway.

    I need to rant. As more and more evidence is presented about Trump bribing the Ukrainians, the more Republicans in Congress bury their heads in the sand, or maybe bury their heads some other place, and support Trump. I understand support for a political party.

    I also understand there is an issue greater than allegiance to a political party, which apparently Republican members of the House and Senate have forgotten. Members of the House and Senate should stop and consider the oath each member took when sworn in was to uphold the Constitution. The oath was not to a political party or to the president.

    Members of Congress should remember and appreciate how many US citizens have served their country in the military and other branches, and how many citizens have died trying to ensure that the US remained a democracy. Seems a bit ironic – and sad – that during the week leading to Veterans Day, many Republican members of the House and Senate openly and publicly abandoned the fundamental principles on which this country was founded. These members of Congress, intentionally or not, seemed to be on a path to destroy our democracy.

    One has to ask, “Why are citizens not demanding members of Congress uphold the Constitution?”   At some point when someone keeps making the same false assumptions, or acting in the same irrational way, you have to ask yourself, “Does that person’s behavior qualify as ‘stupid is as stupid does’ or is something else going on?

    Over the last roughly three years, I’ve tried to understand why people support Trump. For about half that time, I periodically had breakfast with someone who, based on background, was an unlikely Trump supporter. Nevertheless, this person was an ardent Trump fan.

    When I’d ask about why he supported Trump, his response was never about the positives of Trump. His response was always about what was wrong with everyone else. The last conversation we had ended when I asked for the source of some outlandish claim he made about the Affordable Care Act.

    His response to me was not the answer but another question. He asked, “Are you calling me a liar?” After repeating the question, he got up and left the breakfast. We’ve not met since then.

    Such vitriol is not unusual among Trumpsters. Yesterday, during my periodic scan of Facebook, I ran across three such vitriolic comments – two from people I know and the other a friend of a friend. Two for sure and I think all three are college graduates, one possibly from a military academy.

    One person claimed the “whistleblower” was really the cause of the impeachment inquiry. The author proceeded to trash the whistleblower but never mentioned that Trump’s behavior might have precipitated the investigation. The second person claimed Ukraine was strong-armed not by Trump and Giuliani but by the Clinton Foundation. Huh? FYI, the strong-arming occurred in 2019 and Clinton has not been in politics since 2016. Just connect two dots, please.

    The third person, whom I do not know personally, claimed the Republican incumbent governor of Kentucky was behind by 30 points until Trump visited immediately preceding the election. Thump’s visit closed the gap to less than a point. The 30-point gap may be Trump’s claim but unsupported by any 3rd-party data.

    As befuddling as these examples are, unfortunately, they seem rather typical. If I find a Trumpster who will listen and not try to talk over whatever I’m saying, I try to ask a simple question, “Assume everything about Trump as president is the same, would you support Trump if he were a Democrat?”

    The response is usually, “Of course not!” Then my follow-up is, “Why are you supporting him as a Republican? Just because Trump claims to be a Republican, it is okay with you if he bribes foreign leaders for his personal gain? Is it okay if he launders money for the Russians? Is it okay if he supports US enemies at the expense of national security? Is it okay if he trashes and tries to ruin careers of people who have dedicated their lives to working for the benefit of citizens of this country? All that behavior is OK since he claims to be a Republican?” The reaction to the questions is a look similar to a deer-in-the-headlights.

    My analysis: If you support someone with that kind of behavior, I can conclude only one of three things. #1, you are stupid. #2, you’ve been brainwashed. #3, you are a foreign agent. Most of the time, #2, brainwashed, seems appropriate. (For more about brainwashing, see Entries #302-304.)

    A harsh conclusion? Maybe. But, if you’re a Trumpster, please offer me a rational explanation for supporting someone, if he were a Democrat, you’d be chanting, “Lock him up! Lock him up!” I’m waiting for your response.

    #341 SCOTUS Puts another Arrow in Revenge Revolution’s Quiver

    30 Sunday Jun 2019

    Posted by in Back Asswards Thinking, Causes of the Revolution, Societal Issues, Stupid Is as Stupid Does

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    Readers: this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.

    Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether in the next few years, a revolution in the US is still possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Most recent sense check, Entry #332.  

    The original entry for this week was a diversion from politics, culture and the potential for a Revenge Revolution sometime after 2020. The topic was ideas about the Big Bang Theory and the formation of the universe. (I’ll publish the Big Bang entry sometime in the next few weeks.)

    Maybe discussing the idea of the Big Bang was fortuitous. A big bang seemed to be the thinking of the Supreme Court this past week. The decision regarding legality of extremely partisan gerrymandering — Rucho vs. Common Cause — may go down as one of the most illogical SCOTUS decisions of the last 100-150 years. Use Plessy vs Ferguson as a reference point for being illogical.

    The majority opinion, led by Chief Justice John Roberts, claimed SCOTUS was not entitled to second-guess state legislatures’ decisions re gerrymandering, even if the result was extreme disproportionate representation. Really? The majority of SCOTUS’ justices claimed the Constitution did not provide authority for the Supreme Court to address such state issues as gerrymandering, and besides, the framers envisioned that politics would influence the drawing of legislative districts.

    Duh, Roberts, put aside the legal mumbo-jumbo and try to figure out what’s right and wrong for the country. The case, which involved extreme gerrymandering in North Carolina, demonstrated clearly that Republican legislators intended to discriminate against certain voters, i.e., Democrats, the Party which happens to include most black and Hispanic voters.

    The consultant, hired by the Republican-controlled NC legislature, publicly stated disappointment that he could ensure Republicans only 10, not 11, of 13 the seats in the US Hose of Representative despite the percentage of voters in North Carolina being split about evenly between Democrats and Republicans, and slightly favoring Democrats.

    Gee, Roberts, using your logic, it’s OK if Democratic votes in North Carolina count less than 1/2 of what Republicans votes count. (Of the 13 districts, based on the number of Republicans and Democrats, at least six (6) should be represented by Democrats. With the gerrymandered districts, Democrats hold only three (3), or less than 50%.) If the SCOTUS justices keep referencing the Constitution as the basis for the gerrymandering decision, at least have Democratic votes count 3/5 of a Republican vote, which is what the Constitution noted that slaves counted.

    When citing laws and legal precedent, ever think about considering the 14th Amendment? What about considering the Voting Rights Act? What about Brown vs. Board of Education? Okay, I understand your logic. None of these decisions had been made when the Constitution was written and, therefore, should not be considered.

    But wait. What about the Citizen’s United case?  In Citizens United the majority, of which you were a member, claimed that when it came to campaign financing a corporation was really a person and should be treated as such. I’ve looked at my copy of the Constitution and I can’t find where corporations are mentioned, let alone being considered “people.” Your logic must be to reference the Constitution when convenient but to disregard the Constitution when you want a different outcome.

    A second Supreme Court ruling this past week was well-publicized, but frankly a bunch of meaningless noise. The second decision prohibited the Bureau of Census from including a question about citizenship during the 2020 census. Roberts, in an apparent Fox-News attempt to be “fair and balanced,” sided with the Democrats on prohibiting the citizenship question.

    But Roberts’s position is a ruse. The SCOTUS decision does not prevent future census from including a citizenship question. Moreover, with all the publicity around the case, Roberts and Republicans already have convinced many immigrants, even legals, not to respond to the census. And who can blame them? As long as Trump is in office, immigrants will be targets for deportation, regardless of status, and the Trump administration has demonstrated repeatedly a willingness to ignore restrictions on misusing and/or sharing confidential information.

    How should the Supreme Court decisions be interpreted? In the months and years ahead, the US will experience more partisanship, and as hard as it might be to believe, even more extreme positions by politicians. With the gerrymandering decision in place, politicians must now consider all members of the other party as the enemy if a politician is to survive in the primaries in the gerrymandered districts. Compromise and civility will be surefire paths to losing a primary, which has become the defacto general election.

    The gerrymandering decision piled on top of the Citizens United case, should be viewed as the Supreme Court putting another arrow in the Revenge Revolution’s quiver. Given the stupid-is-as-stupid does approach of the Supreme Court combined with the abdication by the McConnell-led Senate Republicans to thwart any illicit and illegal actions by Trump, the only solution to steer this country back to the middle where a government can work for all people seems to be a revolution.

    Comments, welcome, as always.  Any, yes, have a happy 4th of July.  Wasn’t there a revolution sometime around then?