Welcome to a discussion about the upcoming 5th Revolution in the US, which I’ve titled the “Revenge Revolution.” For more about the Revenge Revolution and the author, Entry #1.  Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether a revolution in the US is possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US Entry #476 was the most recent “sense check.”

BEGIN ENTRY #492: What lesson(s) can the US learn from the invasion of Israel by Hamas? The answer is remarkably simple, yet I’ve heard little, if any, serious discussion about possible lessons.

Yes, I understand most of the news is focused on events of the here-and-now, as it probably should be. The news is also heavily weighted toward devastation in Israel and Gaza.  There’s also increasing coverage about the Catch 22 situation facing the Palestinians.  Israel has ordered an evacuation of the northern part of Gaza.  But Gaza is so densely populated, there is no place to flee other than Egypt and, as of now, that border remains closed.

Israel also faces a Catch 22 – how to eliminate leadership of Hamas in an environment where any serious military incursion will result in significant civilian casualties.

Why did Hamas invade southern Israel? The answer is multifaceted and covers numerous opportunities lost or squandered by both sides over many years.  Which side is to blame? It is easy to blame Hamas, and rightly so, for all the deaths of civilians, especially children.

Israel also shares some blame.  In a limited effort so far to eliminate Hamas leadership, Israel cut off food, water and medical supplies.  Combined with the shelling of buildings believed to house Hamas fighters, many Palestinians have been injured or killed. By the time Israel completes a sweep of Gaza, many more civilians are likely to die. The situation is a no-win for both Israel and the non-combatant Palestinians.

If one steps back from the current chaos and asks, “why all the destruction?”, the answer seems obvious, at least to me.  When a country or territory, such as Gaza, is run by religious zealots, decisions no longer are based on facts, or what is good for the general populace. Decisions become based on the dogma of the religious leaders.

Look at Iran prior to the 1979 Revolution. The Shah was no Mother Theresa, but the population was  highly educated, the economy reasonably strong. Since the 1979 Revolution Iran has been run by hard right religious zealots. What’s happened to innovation, creativity and the economy? Downhill.  Many really creative and ambitious people have left the country.

Same with Russia.  Under Putin, Russia has suffered a brain drain and more fled when Russia invaded Ukraine. A stark comparison of the effect of openness and dogma is Korea.  The South is robust and a major economic force.  The North borders on starvation.

What’s this have to do with Israel and Hamas?  Israel first.  In order to stay in power, and try to avoid jail time on corruption charges, Benjamin Netanyahu secured the most recent tenure as prime minister by cutting a deal with the hard right Ultra-orthodox.  (Sound familiar?  Mmm, maybe Trump taught Netanyahu or vice versa.) As a result of the deal, government policies and actions have become more religiously focused and less focused on Israel’s founding commitment to be a model democracy.

Hamas, like Hezbollah and the Palestinian Authority, is an “organization.”  In the early 2000’s, Hamas was elected by the people in Gaza to help transition Gaza to self-administration. Over the last 15+ years, Hamas has shifted from being a “governing body” helping run Gaza to focusing on try to annihilate Israel.

There’s much more of the story, but the lesson, for the US is this –  When the hard-right religious groups begin to control or heavily influence government decisions, the outcome is never good for the people and the country.

Over the last 30+ years, the Republicans have continued to shift to the right and court groups previously considered on the unacceptable outer edge. As the Party shifted, centrist Republicans lost control.  A recent high-profile example is the inability by Republicans to elect a Speaker of the House who is capable of getting legislation passed that can also be passed by the Senate, then signed by the president.

For centrist Republicans, the lesson from Hamas – fire the hard-right Freedom Caucus, or if that doesn’t work, or if you’re afraid to try, then cut a deal with Democrats to elect a Speaker than can get needed legislation moving again.

The lesson for US citizens  – keep in mind the US is not immune to what happened in Iran, Russia, North Korea, et al.  The US is not immune to conflicts like the one initiated by Hamas in Israel.  While the conflict might not be an invasion from Canada or Mexico, it could be another insurrection by the hard-right zealots – i.e., US Revolution V.  (Recall what happened in 1861?) END ENTRY #492:

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Welcome to a discussion about the upcoming 5th Revolution in the US, which I’ve titled the “Revenge Revolution.” For more about the Revenge Revolution and the author, Entry #1.  Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether a revolution in the US is possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US Entry #476 was the most recent “sense check.”

BEGIN ENTRY #483:: Some key decisions at the end of the 2022–23 term for SCOTUS were less surprising than the rationale justifying the decision. Three key decisions in particular seem to be laying the groundwork for the next opportunity to address the race issue.

Overturning affirmative action in college admissions was expected by a court that overturned Roe. The decision that negated President Biden’s Executive Order to waive a portion of student debt was another example of the Roberts’ Court stripping the authority of the executive branch that had been granted by Congress.  Another decision was allowing religious beliefs to justify being able to discriminate against another individual or group. 

Lots of ink this week and likely more next week about the impact of the affirmative action decision on college admissions, efforts by companies to diversify the workforce, etc. 

While the SCOTUS ruling effectively banned affirmative action, there was one notable exemption. Without any justification, the opinion written by Chief Justice Roberts excluded the military academies from the decision, allowing the academies to use race in selecting candidates for admission.

Why are military academies so different from Harvard, University of North Carolina, and other academic institutions? No explanation offered. But, maybe, just maybe, the service academies want the officer corps to reflect the composition of enlisted personnel. Like many claims made by conservative Republicans, no supporting data or explanation was offered.

Where do these decisions lead? In 2010, the Roberts’ Court gave corporations more rights than individual citizens in the Citizens United case. In 2013, the Roberts’ Court ruling in the Shelby Country case gutted key provision of the Voting Rights Act, allowing states to essentially restrict voting rights, especially for people of color. In 2022 to the Roberts’ Court stripped women of any rights over their bodies in overturning Roe.

See a pattern here? There are more examples of the Roberts’ Court taking away rights rather than granting rights. 

What’s the next target for the Roberts’ Court?  My bet is overturning the 1954 case of Brown v Board of Education. Overturning Brown would allow SCOTUS to reinstate Plessy v Ferguson, which established justification for having “separate but equal” facilities in transportation, education et al.

Think overturning Brown is unrealistic?  Read the language of opinions by Roberts and Thomas in the affirmative action cases.  Frequent reference to the “equal protection” clause in the 14^th Amendment claiming that the clause prevents one segment of society from being favored over another. Since Republican appointees to SCOTUS often claim to be originalists, maybe they should consider why the 14^th Amendment was written. 

The 14^th Amendment was passed by Congress in 1866 and ratified in 1868.  I guess Roberts and the originalist gang failed history in high school or conveniently forgot the 14^th Amendment was passed to protect blacks following the Civil War.  Was Roberts thinking, “Never mind history.  I need to make this decision seem rational, no matter how illogical.”

By the standards of the Roberts’ gang,  Brown effectively favors blacks by forcing the busing of children to white schools.  Brown also discriminates against whites by being bussed to what often are or were predominately black schools.  Brown discriminates against both groups by taking away rights to attend neighborhood schools.

Thus, Brown is effectively an affirmative action program for blacks, which SCOTUS ruled as unfair.  Therefore, to ensure there is no discrimination against any citizen, the only solution is to reinstate Plessy.  Reinstating a “separate-but-equal“ school system is a fair and equitable solution that allows children to attend neighborhood schools.

Reinstating Plessy seems far-fetched? No, I’ll bet the far right is preparing to file, if not having already done so, a challenge to Broun. The challenge likely will be filed in the 5^th Circuit, which includes Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas, and is packed with far-right judges. These judges then will allow the case to go forward to the Supreme Court.

What is the cumulative effect of the last decade of SCOTUS decisions?  Will the decisions affect the likelihood of a more intense 5^th US Revolution, the Revenge Revolution? Constantly taking away individual rights – women’s right to choose, voting rights of non-white groups, equal protection of LBGTQ community, etc. – creates frustration and anger.  Women are angry about overturning Roe. While the affirmative action decision is less controversial than Roe, for those affected, the frustration may be comparable.

SCOTUS decisions that seem heavily weighted toward favoring a Republican base of white Christians, mostly men, plus the continued drip, drip of corruption of behavior by Thomas, Alito, and even Roberts, are intensifying the frustration.  There’s a saying I saw on an apron that seems to sum up the long-term problem for SCOTUS and Republicans – “When mama ain’t happy, ain’t nobody happy.”   

As we approach July 4^th, 2023, mama and many others ain’t happy.  And what Republicans and far-right SCOTUS justices seem to have overlooked, is their bizarre interpretation of the 2^nd Amendment has resulted in widespread ownership of firearms among the frustrated majority.  These actions increase the likelihood of a more intense Revenge Revolution, which has already started but not yet boiled over.

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Welcome to a discussion about the upcoming 5th Revolution in the US, which I’ve titled the “Revenge Revolution.” For more about the Revenge Revolution and the author, Entry #1.  Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether a revolution in the US is possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US Entry #476 was the most recent “sense check.”

BEGIN ENTRY #482: You don’t need to think about this issue for very long. Why do certain SCOTUS justices think the law and/or ethics rules do not apply to them?

And which SCOTUS justices squawk the most about the importance of ethical behavior?  Yes, the same SCOTUS scum justices who flagrantly ignore any standard of ethical behavior.

The SCOTUS scum-justices are undermining the credibility of the Court.  The flagrant disregard of basic ethical and moral standards by certain justices is no surprise to anyone who regularly follows Supreme Court decisions and how each justice votes. To paraphrase Shakespeare, “Methinks certain Supreme Court Justices doth protest too much.”

The ethics of Clarence Thomas have always been in question. Thomas, aka Porno Man, never should have been approved by the Senate Judiciary Committee – shame on you then Senator and committee chairman Joe Biden – let alone confirmed by the entire Senate. Thomas was the token black proposed by Republicans to replace the legendary Thurgood Marshall. Who knows how much money Thomas was paid upfront to agree to keep his mouth shut, and always vote with conservatives. We know he’s been paid regularly since joining the court. We just don’t know how much.

Samuel Alito, the holier-than-thou justice, vigorously denied that his all-expenses paid sojourn to Alaska with a billionaire had any influence on his decision on the numerous cases before the court in which the billion’s company was involved.   Alito mounted his defense of the sojourn and failure to report it by opining an op-ed piece in the Wall Street Journal.  The op-ed piece was published before the release of the article by ProPublica, which had sent him a courtesy copy to review.  The defense by Sinning Sam Alito was laughable by any standard.

Anyone who has studied human behavior knows that past behavior is a good predictor of future behavior. If Alito is prone to preempt publication of articles,  I wonder who leaked the decision in the Dobbs case that overturned Roe – and who wrote the majority opinion?  Oh, yes, Alito – and who might have leaked the decision in the Citizens United case?

The source of leaks never has been investigated adequately. A good first step by the Chief Justice would be to approve a 3^rd party professional – FBI or Federal prosecutor – to conduct a series of serious and professional interviews, starting with Alito.

While we’re on the subject of Roberts, his unethical behavior is not as blatant as either Thomas or Alito. However, Roberts as chief justice has an obligation to the country to rein in justices who do not follow the rules re reporting and recusal.  I can only imagine the uproar from Republicans if one of the more liberal justices had exhibited behavior 1/10 as egregious as either Thomas or Alito.

Roberts term  as chief justice will go down as possibly the worst since the beginning of the 20th century. While some decisions were questionable, the real problem for the Roberts court is the behavior of some justices. This behavior has contributed to a precipitous and sustained decline in the US public’s confidence in the Supreme Court. Roberts, it’s time to start a turnaround program and rebuild public confidence.  A good first step would be getting the two SCOTUS scums off the bench. END #482

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Welcome to a discussion about the upcoming 5th Revolution in the US, which I’ve titled the “Revenge Revolution.” For more about the Revenge Revolution and the author, Entry #1.  Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether a revolution in the US is possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US Entry #476 was the most recent “sense check.”

BEGIN ENTRY #477: A few days ago, Dominion Voting Systems agreed to an out-of-court settlement with Fox News. News Corporation, Fox’s parent, agreed to pay Dominion $787 million as part of the settlement for a libel suit brought by Dominion.  In addition, Fox had to admit, somewhat tepidly, that it had made false statements, aka lies, on the air about the credibility of Dominion’s voting machines.

By settling out of court, Fox avoided having testify in court CEO, Rupert Murdoch, and several high-profile talking heads.  Dominion had evidence that would have forced Murdoch and the talking heads to admit they lied on the air about Dominion as well as lied about the credibility of Trump’s claims the 2020 election was somehow “stolen.”

Following the announcement settlement, a number of lawyers, particularly on cable, began slobbering all over themselves about the unprecedented amount of payment and that other portions of the settlement would put guardrails on Fox’s behavior.

My view? Fox was the winner, not the loser.  Dominion was the loser. While the $787 million settlement was unprecedented for a libel case, the $787 million represents a minor hiccup to Fox’s earning stream.  Fox will still have a profit for FY2023 and possibly a profit for the quarter in which the settlement is booked. In addition, Fox is likely to slightly increase 30-second ad rates to cover the expense.

The settlement will have virtually no effect on Fox’s audience.  Fox viewers are likely to remain loyal.  Most will discount any terms of the settlement and many viewers may be unaware of most of the terms, given the limited coverage on Fox.

As far as the settlement controlling lies by Fox’s talking heads – Carlson, Hannity et al – don’t count on it. The Fox staff will train the talking heads to reframe lies as questions or claim in the commentary that they are merely “reporting” on what others have said.

The likelihood of Fox encountering another successful libel suit is very small.  The threshold for such suits is very high and Dominion was lucky to have had access to a trove of emails, texts and voice recordings proving Fox was lying.  As such, there is no incentive for Fox to change. Per chance, if Fox is facing another lawsuit, bring out the checkbook and buy your way out.

Why did Dominion settle?  By not settling, Dominion could have increased its market share.  Granted, no “self-respecting” election official in a Republican-dominated district would ever buy a Dominion voting machine.  I suspect many Republican-dominated state legislators will introduce legislation to ban any district in the state from purchasing Dominion voting machines.  If the Donald says “no” then the legislators must say “no.”

By not settling, Dominion could have gained market share in more Democratically controlled states. Officials in those states could have leaned toward Dominion’s system because the system is credible, and Dominion stood up to Fox and Trump.  Now those officials have less incentive to support Dominion.  For many of those officials, Dominion’s decision to grab the money and effectively cave into Fox is a reason not to buy Dominion machines. 

So, one more time, why did Dominion settle when they had Fox by the short hairs?  Even the presiding judge said Fox was not credible.  Oh, yes, follow the money.  The decision by Dominion may not have been made by Dominion executives, but guess who?  Yes, you guessed right – the paragons of ethical behavior.  A private equity firm that purchased a portion of Dominion a few years ago. 

So, in the end,  the private equity firm’s greed forced Dominion management to push aside ethics and principles. While the PE firm got cash and a huge ROI multiple for caving to Fox, the public got nothing. Fox bought its way out on the cheap and also bought the right to continue distorting the truth with no guardrails and little fear of repercussion.  Another dagger in the heart of democracy.

As for the future of Dominion, the PE firm will take the money and run, leaving Dominion a wounded player.  Let’s hope Dominion recovers.  However, don’t be surprised if in the next couple of years Dominion Voting Systems declares Cha11 bankruptcy or ends up being purchased by another company.  In the meantime, the members of the private equity firm will probably be watching Fox News. 

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