Readers: this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution and author, Entry #1. Most entries are formatted as conversations. Characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations.
Occasionally I break from the normal formatting and do a “sense check.” Auditing one’s own work is problematic but I try to be objective. Entries #300 and #301 are the most recent “sense checks.” Your thoughts are welcomed and appreciated. Thanks for your time and interest…and comments, please.
Scene: Jordan’s office, Washington, DC, start of workday
Gelly: “Good morning, Jordan. Sorry I didn’t make it back from the conference yesterday. Long day. How was your visit with Walt?”
Jordan: “Visit was great. His thinking seems to have returned to normal.”
Gelly: “So his ‘de-brainwashing’ of Trumpism really helped. The whole idea of brainwashing someone or some group seems a bit odd to me but it must have worked.”
Jordan: “Worked on Walt and millions of hard-core Trump supporters. Say, what’s with the sling on your left arm?”
Gelly: “That’s why it was a long day yesterday. On the way out of the conference, I slipped on something and landed on my left elbow.”
Jordan: “Yikes that must have hurt? Go to ER?”
Gelly: “Yes, it did hurt. Fortunately my doctor’s office is close to where I fell. Went to the office and got an X-ray. PA said my elbow was fractured. Then I got this cast. Well, not really a cast but keeps me from moving my elbow.”
Jordan: “Any idea how long in the sling?”
Gelly: “Apparently 6-8 weeks.”
Jordan: “Can you work at all? Seems as if we should get someone in here to help…at least for a couple of months.”
Gelly: “Some help would be great. As far as work? I can hold a cup of coffee in my left hand but not much else. Serious typing, trying to file or even moving anything is out for a while.”
Jordan: “OK, then let’s get somebody in here no later than tomorrow morning.”
Gelly: “Now, back to business. At the conference there was a lot of discussion about the effect of government economic policies.”
Jordan: “Such policies as…?”
Gelly: “The topic for one of the sessions was Federal government economic policies following the Revenge Revolution. A couple of speakers kept touting that Trump’s economic policies in the first two years in office were highly effective and should be the basis for future government economic growth.”
Jordan: “You mean such policies as tax cuts for the wealthy, tearing up trade agreements with other countries that the US drafted after WWII, efforts to severely restrict immigration and then allow only people with money to get green cards and finally citizenship. Those kinds of policies?”
Gelly: “Yes, but the speakers seemed so convincing. In the past I’ve heard you debunk those policies. What I’d like to learn is a simple, but meaningful way to decide which government economic policies are appropriate for certain conditions. Can you help me?”
Jordan: “Of course. I have three guidelines – really basic questions that might help you. The first question is about tax policy. Ready?”
Gelly: “Yes, have on my thinking cap.”
Jordan: “If the Federal government is going to use personal income and taxes to help spur economic growth, to what kind of people should it direct most of the effort? Who, for example, is likely to spend say $1,000? A person or family making $35,000 per year with little savings or a person making say $235,000 with a decent stock portfolio?”
Gelly: “The person or family making $35,000. That person probably has 5-10 things the money could be used for. The person making $235,000 will likely never notice the $1,000 and just leave the money in the bank.”
Jordan: “Question #2. If the Federal government wants to stimulate employment, which policy would be more effective – trying to create even more new jobs when unemployment is already low or trying to create new jobs when unemployment is high and a lot of people ae looking for work?”
Gelly: “Why would the government try to create more jobs when unemployment rate is already low? That makes no sense to me. Create more jobs when unemployment is high.”
Jordan: “Question #3. If you’re the Federal government, when is a better time to save money and pay down the Federal debt? When Federal tax revenues are high and maybe likely to grow or when federal tax revenues are falling and likely to fall more?”
Gelly: “When tax revenue is high. That’s when government should pay down debt and save for a rainy day. When the economy starts to get bad is when the government should start spending more money and create more jobs.”
Jordan: “Gelly, you are on your way to becoming an economist.”
Gelly: “Those questions and answers seem so basic. But the left-over Trump supporters kept spouting exactly the opposite of what we just discussed. They kept taking about more tax cuts for the highest income people. Their argument was if the government doesn’t reduce taxes for people with the most money, they won’t invest, build new plants and create more jobs. A lot of people seemed to buy in to that argument.”
Jordan: “Here’s another question. Say you own a business and the government just reduced income taxes…but mostly for very wealthy people. And let’s say your factory produces chocolate candy bars. Are you going to increase production of candy bars in hopes that people will eat more chocolate?”
Gelly: “No, that would be stupid. Sounds like a waste of money.”
Jordan: “When would you add production capacity and hire more workers?”
Gelly: “When I kept having to produce candy bars on overtime and it was hard to keep up with demand.”
Jordan: “You’re right. The idea of ‘build it and they will come’ works only in the movies.”
Gelly: “Then why did Trump promote all those economic policies that seem illogical? And, even worse, why did the Republicans in Congress pass the legislation?”
Jordan: “Short answer is greed. The Donald was never, ever for anyone but the Donald. He did not care how economic policies affected the country as long as he and his family could make more money.”
Gelly: “What about the Republicans in Congress? Could they have been brain-washed like Walt was?”
Jordan: “Some maybe. I think the old adage about ‘power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely’ applies to Mitch McConnell, Paul Ryan and some of the committee chairs.”
Gelly: “When you mentioned McConnell you know what popped in my head? The scene from ‘The Graduate’ where Elaine is in Benjamin’s rented room near Berkeley, she’s just screamed and the landlord is headed toward the room and turns to Benjamin. The landlord says to Benjamin, ‘You are scum.’ Seems to fit Trump, McConnell and some others.”
Jordan: “I’ll buy that.”
Gelly: “Have you got time to explain more economics to me, please?”
Jordan: “Of course. Keep in mind not all economics is as basic as we just discussed. And some parts are counter-intuitive. We can talk more about fundamentals…after I refill my coffee.”
Gelly: “OK and I’ll call the temp agency.”
Walt: “I agree it was an interesting experience. Yes, I’ve got time for a couple more questions, then I’m outta here.”
Walt: “Yes. Best I can tell, Woodward is about as credible a journalist as you can find. I’ve never heard what I call a true Washington journalist say he’s anything but top drawer. Forget what the talking heads say about him.”
Jordan: “How’d you react when Trump claimed the book was full of lies and made-up quotes?”
Walt: “Yes, and sometimes at myself for having believed him. Trump lied who knows how many times a day. He was a serial liar…even about stuff that didn’t really matter. He made Pinocchio look like a penny waiting for change. So the serial liar claims this highly respected journalist made up key parts of the book…and then the serial liar expects rational people to believe him. C’mon. At that time Woodward had written I think 7-8 books about presidents. And he’s going to make up quotes?”
Walt: “Woodward’s book title was spot on. The word ‘fear’ was a great descriptor. Fear among the White House staff and the agencies about what crazy stuff Trump might try to do and fear of the consequences for the country.”
Walt: “The scene from the ‘Wizard of Oz’ where the bad witch tries to bully Dorothy to give up her ruby slippers. Then the good witch – in this case Woodward rather than Glenda – shoos off the bad witch and protects Munchkin Land.”
Jordan: “When bad witch was shooed off, the Munchkins…aka Republicans…had the opportunity to return to normal.”
Jordan: “No. Trump’s actions made the polarization much worse. He allowed the wacko fringes to come out of the closet. In fact he seemed to promote the wacko far right. Maybe even worse, his economic policies and efforts to control the judiciary accelerated the country’s slide to becoming a banana republic.”
Walt: “Woodward…along with a few others…confirmed what a lot of people suspected about Trump. Except what Woodward showed the situation was much worse than most anyone thought.”
Jordan: “Or, as they say in Texas, ‘All hat; no cattle.’ That’s the same group who wanted staffers to resign if they didn’t totally agree with Trump. ‘Hail the king. He can do no wrong.’”
Walt: “I couldn’t come up with a good answer. I also thought if the president had been a Democrat and had done 1/10 what the public knew Trump had done, Republicans would have been ranting and raving, demanding impeachment and jail time. Just look at how long Republicans were obsessed with Hillary’s email server. Even when no one could find any evidence of criminal activity, they kept probing. They wouldn’t give up no matter what the evidence was.”
Jordan: “What about Nixon’s behavior?”
Walt: “Trump, on the other hand, set a new standard for illicit behavior. OK, most everybody can overlook being in bed with porn stars. But in bed with the Russians? No way. Think about it. The president of the United States, and much of his immediate family, in bed with the Russians. Some of his sleaziness was well-known and not a surprise. So, with his known background, why did Republicans let him on the ticket, let alone get nominated? When the info on the Russian connection started to come out, why did Republicans sit on their hands and do nothing to get rid of him? I admit I’m not innocent…for a while I retweeted some of his stuff. But what about Republican leaders in the House and Senate? They had access to confidential information and did nothing with it. They’re still in denial. Bunch of whims.”
Jordan: “You know why they’re in denial.”
Walt: “If I read this chart correctly, in about 1900, GDP (Gross Domestic Product) per capita was about the same in the US and Argentina.”
Walt: “At the same time, we had Trump trash talking, claiming the judiciary was crooked. Remind you of someone from the 1930’s? Anyway, when I suggested it was important to rebuild confidence in the judiciary, I never considered that without a fair judiciary, sustained economic growth was not possible.”
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