Welcome to the some discussion about the upcoming 5th Revolution in the US, which I’ve titled the “Revenge Revolution.” For more about the Revenge Revolution and the author, Entry #1.  Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether a revolution in the US is possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Entry #400 was the most recent “sense check.” 

ENTRY #420: “Don’t tell me to get vaccinated you communist. It’s my right to get Covid. And it’s my right to make you pay for all of my medical bills.

Besides, getting Covid would be fun. Just think about what’ll happen?  I hope I’m one of the lucky ones with Covid who gets to go to the hospital. And if I’m real lucky, I’ll get a spot in ICU.

Think of all the staff that’ll be at my service in ICU.  The attention I’ll get from the staff puts to shame anything the Ritz-Carlton has to offer.  

Plus, in ICU I’ll get to take a bed that could have been occupied by someone who claimed to have an emergency. You know, someone pretending to have had a heart attack, or a stroke, or claiming to have been in a severe auto accident. I’m important so I deserve the bed more than any one of ‘those people.’

When I get out, what I’ll do is declare bankruptcy and stiff the hospital and all future patients for the bill.  If I stay in ICU long enough the hospital bill could be $1 million.  How many people do you know who have stiffed the hospital for a million bucks or more? 

After I’m out, then maybe I’ll be lucky and turn into one of those, uh, I think they’re called ‘long-haulers.’  Someone who has symptoms for a long time. The exciting part of being a long-hauler is no one knows what symptoms will occur, when they’ll occur, and for how long.  Tell me that isn’t exciting.

If I don’t get out, then I’ll be part of the group that seems to get all the media attention.  You know, the people who supposedly died from Covid. But unlike many of the people on the list, my death will be real. No fake news about me.

See why I’m excited? See why I refuse to wear a mask and why I refuse to get vaccinated? If I did either one, I might miss out on an exciting adventure.  People who get vaccinated are such dullards.”

——————–

OK, why the satire?  A few days ago, an anti-vaxer had the audacity to claim that the person asking someone to do something for the common good – i.e., getting vaccinated – was being selfish.  Excuse me anti-vaxer, but asking someone to doing something for the common good is not being selfish. 

Refusing to do something for the common good – maybe not littering, supporting people who are in true need, not being rude and a list of other reasonable behaviors – is being selfish.  But selfish people think the world revolves around them.    

So grow up anti-vaxer.  Put on your big-boy pants and quit acting like some whiny 2-year-old.

Welcome to the some discussion about the upcoming 5th Revolution in the US, which I’ve titled the “Revenge Revolution.” For more about the Rnd the author? . More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.  Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether a revolution in the US is possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Entry #400 was the most recent “sense check.” 

This past week or so, I’ve been struck by a seemingly endless stream of the illogical comments. Maybe Covid has caused society to regress mentally.

My observations and questions may offend some readers. If you are one of those readers, no offense intended.  I think we, that is societal we, need to be asking some difficult questions if we want to make meaningful progress toward practical solutions.  If we don’t address the elephant in the room, of which there are several, proposed solutions will be more like a Band-aides when major surgery is needed. 

I flipped a coin to decide which set of illogical statements/actions should be addressed first.  Republicans won the toss.

Illogical comments from Republicans seemed to center on:

1. “Election was stolen from Trump!”
2. “Events at the Capitol January 6 were like an ordinary group of visitors.”
3. “Covid-19 vaccines are bad for you.”

If you actually believe any of these claims, then you are living in a dream world.  Ask yourself, “Where am I getting information?”  “Is the information credible?”  “Why do I believe it?”   “Would I or do I use these same sources of information for other parts of my life?”

Part of the illogic from Republicans is the claim there are two sets of facts.  No, folks, there’s one set of facts.  People might interpret the facts a bit differently but interpretation is different than claiming there are two sets of facts.

Ask yourself, if Trump and Tucker Carlson on Fox claimed the moon was made of green cheese, would you believe them?  If you believe what comes out of Trump’s or Carlson’s mouth, then you might as well believe the moon is made of green cheese. Much of what either of them says has no basis in fact and completely fabricated.

The idea there was widespread voter fraud is beyond ridiculous.  Even Republican officials in Republican-dominated states said there was no voter fraud.  So why all the effort to suppress voting?  Obviously Republicans are afraid of losing the majority to “those people.”  Well, my friends, big lies and suppression don’t last forever.  And when the 5^th US Revolution happens, the Revenge Revolution, those continuing to support Trump will lose more than you would have without all supporting all the lies.

As far as not getting a vaccine, did you get vaccinated against polio?  Against the mumps?  Against measles?  If you don’t believe in vaccines, go talk to someone who’s had Covid and see what the experience was like.  Then ask yourself, “What’s the risk to my long-term health of getting Covid vs the essentially infinitesimal risk with getting vaccinated?”  BTW, the risk of a serious side effect from birth-control pills is higher than the Covid vaccine. 

OK, enough questions for Republicans.  If past is a prologue, no amount of logic will stimulate thinking among Trump supporters.   

Let’s move the other side of the aisle.  Questions, comments observed during last week or so include:

1. “We need more affordable housing.”
2. “Housing values in minority neighborhoods are lower than comparable houses in white neighborhoods.”
3. “Tax rates are higher in certain cities with a higher percentage of blacks and browns.”
4. “We need better schools in minority neighborhoods.”

Each statement, when taken individually, seems logical.  The problem occurs when one tries to develop a solution that addresses even two of the statements. 

Just take statements #1 & #2.  Few doubt that more affordable housing is needed.  Where should that housing be?  If you want as many people as possible to benefit, then start putting housing in areas where existing home prices are more affordable.  But that option becomes less attractive if somehow values of houses in minority neighborhoods need to increase to match white neighborhoods.  If homeowners in minority neighborhoods want comparable values to predominantly white neighborhoods, then there will be less affordable housing and the problem of available affordable housing will get worse not better.  

So, take your pick.  Want more affordable housing, or do you want values to be the same as in white neighborhoods?  BTW, for anyone who has studied home prices, there are huge disparities between comparable houses in white neighborhoods.  The value of a house is more than the physical structure. 

Take statements #2 & #3 &#4.   Tax rates are based cost of services divided by the value of the tax base.   Most of the cost of city services is fixed – police, fire, refuse, administration, schools, etc.  In most states, a large portion of a city’s revenue is generated by property taxes. 

If the cost for most city services and for schools is fixed, and the value of the house is less, then the property tax rate – amount per $1,000 assessed valuation — must increase. If you want a lower tax rate, then what services are you willing to give up?  If you want better schools, then the tax rate is going to be higher.  Ever wonder why taxes are so, so high in areas with top-notch public schools?  Schools are expensive.  The solution is to have more tax-paying businesses and higher-value homes in the city as a whole.  Don’t get hung up on values neighborhood to neighborhood.   

Another set of comments heard this past week or so focused on how slavery in the US continues to affect blacks. Is slavery the reason or the excuse?  Let’s think about this.  Slavery was abolished 150+ years ago.  That’s equal to 6-7 generations.

A question.  “Why is it that every other immigrant or ethnic group in the US, many of whom arrived 50+ years after slavery was abolished, has managed to pull themselves up economically? And it’s not that many of these immigrant groups we’re not shunned or discriminated against.

Look at a sign typical of the early 20th Century.Some groups also suffered from neighborhoods being redlined.  For decades Jews were often excluded from neighborhoods by redlining, excluded from country clubs, etc.  Oh, BTW, there’s never been a Jewish president, even though there’s been a black president.

So why have blacks stayed at the bottom of the economic ladder? Is slavery the reason or the excuse?  Blacks need to look in the mirror and ask themselves that question.  And take some time before answering.  More next entry.

Readers: The entries in this blog are built around the assumption there will be a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.  Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether a revolution in the US is possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Entry #400 was the most recent “sense check.”

On June 17^th, 2021 President Biden signed legislation declaring June 19th a Federal holiday. The holiday recognizes the Emancipation Proclamation. The date coincides not with the signing of the Emancipation Proclamation but with the day in 1865 when the last area of the US – West Texas – was informed of the Emancipation Proclamation.

The legislation passed the House of Representatives with 14 dissenting votes. The Senate vote was 100 to zero, with the bill structured as a proclamation that did not require individual Senators to vote.

The apparent widespread support for Juneteenth in an otherwise fractured Congress would seem to bode well for future legislation aimed at addressing inequities in society – voting rights and education, for example.

My view is just the opposite. While many on the right likely would characterize me as “one of those liberals,” and by their definition the characterization would be correct, I think Republicans allowing the legislation to pass with virtually no opposition will end up showing their underlying beliefs by slowing passage or refusing to pass most, if not all, future rights-type legislation.

In a way, the Democrats and especially the black community, have been snookered by the Juneteenth holiday. By allowing a Federal holiday to honor the Emancipation Proclamation, Republicans now have a retort to any future rights legislation. “You got a Federal holiday for Juneteenth. That’s enough.”

Worse for blacks in particular is the holiday could evolve into a backlash among many non-black voters. With Juneteenth, there are now 11 federal holidays: New Year’s Day, Martin Luther King’s birthday, Presidents Day, Memorial Day, Juneteenth, 4th of July, Labor Day, Columbus Day, Veterans Day, Thanksgiving, and Christmas.

One holiday is associated with a particular religion, Christmas. Two holidays are associated with honoring those who defended the country – Memorial Day and Veterans Day.  Four holidays are somewhat related to the founding of the country – 4^th of July, Columbus Day, Presidents Day and Thanksgiving. One holiday for workers, Labor Day.

None of the holidays listed so far is directed at any particular ethnic group. However, 2 of the 11 holidays are – King’s birthday and Juneteenth. Whether categorizing the holidays as “ethnic”-type holidays is fair or appropriate, some people will do so. In addition to two holidays associated with blacks, there is an entire month devoted to black history. At some point voters may say, “No more.  I had nothing to do with slavery or Jim Crow laws.  Time for blacks to quit whining and start committing to fixing their problems.” 

A spreading backlash may already be starting.  Although a single data point, what’s happening in Charlotte, NC may help portend the future.  Background – although Charlotte lies south of the Mason-Dixon Line, by most standards Charlotte would be considered a moderately liberal city.  In the last few months there has been an increasing push by a number of blacks to force the school board to balance the ethnicity of: (i) teachers with the student population; (ii) student population among the schools.

The county encompassing Charlotte, Mecklenburg, threatened to withhold 10% of its school funding until the school board presented a plan that ensured students were learning.  Duh, folks, let’s start with who’s responsible for the student wanting to learn.  What’s that old saying, “You can lead a horse to water but you can’t make it drink.”  

Trying to force balanced ethnicity in classrooms and ethnicity of teachers and then force accountability on teachers might look good on paper and gain political points, but the actions do not addresses the underlying cause of the poor student performance.  Without a commitment to education by the black community, balancing students and teachers by ethnicity will have little effect.

Measuring teachers for performance against a teaching metric is valid.  Trying to measure a teacher’s performance by the performance of students is a no-win for teachers, and a good approach to making sure the most qualified teachers go elsewhere. 

Ensuring students learn is an excellent societal goal.  But let’s be honest about who’s responsible for the behavior and commitment of the students.  The responsibility starts at home, and if the home is not being responsible, then those in the family and support community must take up the slack.

On a somewhat cynical level, implementation of some demands by the black community and actions by Mecklenburg County seems to imply a desire to return to Plessy v. Ferguson, which approved “separate but equal” education.  No, I haven’t joined the far right. But what we, societal we, need to discuss honestly is what will solve the problem at hand.

Most of the discussions about inequality in schools, jobs and even sometimes voting rights seem to focus on optics and not substance.  Juneteenth is a perfect example of what I label as “optics.”

What problem was solved by declaring Juneteenth a Federal holiday? Nothing.  While blacks might feel better there has been some overdue recognition of the Emancipation Proclamation, nothing fundamental has changed. If you think the holiday is the beginning of a sea change, ask yourself, “What fundamentally has changed for blacks since Martin Luther King’s birthday became a Federal holiday?”

Let’s see what has changed: key portions of the Voting Rights Act were not renewed; innumerable bills have been introduced in state legislatures that are intended to suppress voting rights; the US now has a Supreme Court that has shifted far right.  Keep thinking about all the gains made been made since King’s birthday became a Federal holiday. Then compare the list to a list of inequities still exist or have reemerged.  Creating holidays maybe a step backwards, not forward.

Readers: The entries in this blog are built around the assumption there will be a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1. 

Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether a revolution in the US is possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Entry #400 was the most recent “sense check.” 

For the past 6+ months, I’ve been working with a group of fellow MIT alumni to assess and then recommend practical solutions to climate change. While the group has made every effort to remain apolitical, by its very nature the group is highly biased toward science and quantitative analysis.

Within the group there is no dispute whether climate change is real. There is no dispute within the group whether the consequences of climate change are severe for the US and every other country worldwide, even if we begin to take action now.

Like many issues, most people have a difficult time imagining the future. Whether the consequences of climate change are difficult to imagine or the consequences are easier to ignore and one finds it more comforting to hope that the problems goes away, there seems to be a little concern within the general populace about consequences of climate change.

The lack of concern makes implementing necessary solutions even more difficult. To help listeners better understand complex problems, using an any analogy often help. For climate change, I found the following analogy gets people’s attention and adequately describes the scope of the problem if nothing is done.

Imagine climate change as a game of Russian Roulette.  If you want to ignore climate change and do nothing, then load the chamber not with one bullet but with five bullets.  Now, spin the chamber and pull the trigger.  Chances are the outcome will not be a good one. 

If you want to take serious action to address climate change, then you put only one round in the chamber. A positive outcome is not guaranteed but the chances are very good. So ask yourself, do I want to play Russian Roulette with five rounds in the chamber or just one round?

What also seems to help people understand complex problems is a set of Q&A where the questions and answers are phrased in terms understandable to most everyone.

Recently a colleague asked me to list top-line bullet points about climate change that she could weave into an upcoming speech. A couple of Q&A examples follow. Link to entire Q&A set.

• Q: What’s the solution to climate change or are we doomed no matter what we do?
• A: We are not doomed if we start taking action now.  The longer we wait, the more difficult the solution becomes.  Think of the solution as a 3-legged stool.  The legs are:
  • Using existing and likely future technology to reduce CO₂ and other GHG (greenhouse gas) – methane, e.g.
  • Providing adequate funds to pay for implementing technology
  • Creating new jobs to replace those lost and ideally creating  even more jobs

• Q: How do we implement these solutions?
• A: Think of another 3-legged stool. Most of the necessary technology is available today. Thus the implementation plan is one that is more dependent on a willingness to solve the problem. To address climate change both society and legislators need to commit to:
  • Implementing science-based solutions, not political solutions
  • Using not just public funds but insisting on private funds as well
  • Ensuring fair-and-equitable implementation across all socio-economic groups. Like Covid-19, all socio-economic groups will be affected by climate change.

How will efforts to address climate change affect the 5th US Revolution, aka the Revenge Revolution? The groups most affected by climate change are under age 50, and especially under age 30. Like the cultural revolution of the 1960’s/1970’s, US Revolution #4, the younger generation likely will be the primary force for change.

The younger generations tend to lean left politically and many seem more open to a larger role for government. The younger generations’ support for actions to address climate change will diminish further the voice of the Republican far right.

The more I’ve delved into what’s required to address climate change, and how solutions now depend on personal commitment, since technology is available to solve most of the problems, the more I wonder if the Revenge Revolution will be driven by the younger generations. Are they waiting to “Throw the (older) bums out?

Will the younger generation claim, and maybe rightfully so, “You old guys screwed it up. Now we’re going to run the show.” More to come.

Readers: The entries in this blog are built around the assumption there will be a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1. 

Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether a revolution in the US is possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Entry #400 was the most recent “sense check.” 

Some important developments this past couple of weeks that likely will influence the intensity of the Revenge Revolution. (I skipped an entry last week for several reasons, but primarily because of lack of time.)

During the Trump administration, and especially since George Floyd‘s death roughly one year ago, social justice has been a major news topic. In addition to public demonstrations about social justice, there have been many efforts by organizations to address social justice.

Efforts have ranged from support for more affordable housing units to improving access to medical care to ensuring more equitable enforcement of laws by police to eliminating Jim-Crow-like restrictions on voting rights. At the Congressional level, some members of the House have proposed that reparations should be paid to blacks.

Interestingly, at least from my perspective, is the conversation about social justice has not included mention of improving educational opportunities for blacks and browns. Why no discussion about education, I don’t know.

While increased equitable enforcement of laws and more affordable housing units are important, none of the top-line issues being discussed under the banner of “social justice” has a significant impact on long-term economic sustainability for families. The issue not being discussed – education – has proved over time to be a viable way for ethnic/minority groups to assimilate and to improve economic wellbeing. Over the last 125-150 years, every ethnic group that committed to education as a way to help children and grandchildren has improved their economic well-being.

In the coming years, education will become even more important as artificial intelligence and automation replace low-skilled in semi-skilled jobs. Without higher education or expertise in a much-needed skilled trade, an individual’s earning potential will remain very limited. If black lives really matter, then educational opportunities and commitment to education by black families should really matter as well.

While we won’t know for a while, but publicity about and focus on social justice issues may have reached a peak with the verdict in the George Floyd trial. Whereas the verdict seemed more than justified and provided much relief to the black community, the conversation about the longer-term consequences of the trail were overshadowed later the same week by other events.

A series of technology-related events and announcement may replace social justice as the main topic of conversation in Congress and with the public. For blacks in particular, these events likely mean that the conversation about Floyd fades and the conversation about geeks gallops to the forefront.

What technology-related events occurred? #1, and the least impact on public discourse was NASA’s Perseverance spacecraft taking flight on another planet. The flight was the first ever and will be followed by many more. In technology terms, the helicopter flight on Mars was on par with the Wright Brothers first flight. I guess license plates on Mars will read “First in Solar Flight,” trying to parallel North Carolina’s claim of “First in Flight.”

2, and far more important for society at large was more detail about the Biden administration’s proposal of a roughly $2 trillion infrastructure plan. The proposal defined infrastructure more broadly than roads, bridges and some communications. The plan has significant long-term implications for the US economy and daily life for virtually every citizen.

3, and the big Kahuna, was the commitment by the Biden administration that by 2030 the US will reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 50% of the 2005 level. Like the infrastructure bill, the commitment on reducing GHG has major implications for the economy and daily lives of most citizens.

Both proposals have the potential to create significant jobs. Although there are many differences between Republicans and Democrats on parts of both proposals, the infrastructure proposal already has broad public support, including a large percentage of Republican voters.

The proposal to reduce GHG emissions likely will gain broad support among many younger voters. These voters could be a major influence on parents and grandparents to support the proposal.

What does conversation about infrastructure and climate change mean for the conversation about social justice? Social justice will remain an issue, especially with certain groups, but the conversation about social justice no longer will be front and center. Less conversation doesn’t diminish the importance of social justice. However, most people, including those in Congress, can focus only on a few issues at a time.

Further, the Biden proposals are forward looking and with a vision for America that is different than espoused by Trump. What does this mean for Trump supporters? Much less airtime other than a couple of marginal media outlets. Fox News no longer needs Trump and given that corporations supporting voting rights for minorities could pull advertising, Fox will focus on aspects of the infrastructure and GHG proposals. If you’re the Murdoch’s, why risk losing advertising revenue on the golden goose?

In the next few entries I’ll address how reactions to the infrastructure and GHG proposals and the diminished conversation about social justice could affect the timing and intensity of the Revenge Revolution. The entries will also include some discussion about reaction to seemingly ever increasing gun violence could affect the Revenge Revolution. Stay tuned.

Booklets you might find interesting.