#165 Republican Taliban

17 Saturday Oct 2015

Posted by Jordan Abel in Causes of the Revolution, Gov't Policy, Possible Solutions, Societal Issues

First-time readers, this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about Revenge Revolution and the author, Entry #1. List and general description of entries to date.

Note: most characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations. Profile of characters. You’ll catch on quickly. Thanks for your time and interest…and comments.

Scene: coffee shop near office. Jordan meets Matt, a reporter for a major newspaper. Matt interviewed Jordan for an earlier series of articles. Jordan and Matt have finished side conversation about VW. Returning to conversation about Matt’s upcoming book.

Jordan: “Alright, Matt. Let’s talk about your book. What’s the title?”

Matt: “No title yet but the theme is whether the behavior of fundamentalists contributed to the Revenge Revolution in the US.”

Jordan: “You mean fundamentalists like we consider the Taliban to be fundamentalists?”

Matt: “Yes, but the groups I’m focusing on are in the US, so really no Taliban.”

Jordan: “What about Republican fundamentalists who refused to compromise and govern. Would they qualify?”

Matt: “If you think so. What I’m looking for is individual’s opinion on what groups and/or events they consider precipitated the Revenge Revolution.”

Jordan: “As you know, revolutions don’t just happen. Over time the populous gets frustrated and angry about a series of events.”

Matt: “Then one day, an event – even a seemingly small event – puts them over the top and voila, a revolution.”

Jordan: “I tell you what would help me – picking a point in time where events really began to change my thinking.”

Matt: “When I talk to people about such events, most mention 2015 as a tipping point. A tipping point not for the revolution but for them beginning to think differently.”

Jordan: “Any particular event in 2015 mentioned more frequently?”

Matt: “No. People just remember the year when they scratched their head and asked, ‘What is this or that group doing?”

Jordan: “I agree. 2015 was a year of childish actions by some people who should have been acting like adults. Nothing catastrophic like a president being assassinated. Just a lot of events that really started to gnaw at me.”

Matt: “OK. What events are on your list?”

Jordan: “Three come to mind right away. #1 the so-called conservative Republicans forcing out John Boehner as Speaker of the House, and then having no plans to govern. #2 Refusal by the NRA and many of the same Republicans to consider some type of gun regulation, even after a number of mass killings. #3, which didn’t get much publicity but an example of people not taking responsibility. The gathering in Washington of blacks to mark the 2Oth anniversary of the Million Man March.”

Matt: “I’d like to hear more about each one. Take them in order.”

Jordan: “The behavior of the Republicans…more like Republicants or even Republirants…baffles me and apparently many other people.”

Matt: “I think I know but what behavior was so troubling?”

Jordan: “Refusal to listen to, let alone accept, another opinion. From the perspective of those Republicants, there’s one view of the world – theirs.”

Matt: “Just like the Taliban?”

Jordan: “A good name for the group is the Taliban Republicans.”

Matt: “I’m certain they would prefer the label conservative Republicans.”

Jordan: “Probably so but the group is anything but conservative. Despite claims to the contrary, Republicans’ fiscal policies have increased the national debt significantly. Reagan and Bush 43 added far more to the national debt than Clinton and much more than Obama, despite Obamacare and bailing out the banks. Plus, the republicans absolutely opposed any effort to reduce carbon footprint. ”

Matt: “Aren’t most of the members religious conservatives – fundamentalist Christians?”

Jordan: “Guess that group forgot to read the Bible. There are repeated references and mitzvot – commandments – to save the earth.”

Matt: “What else about the Taliban Republicans?”

Jordan: “Refusal to govern. At least the real Taliban makes an attempt to govern. The Taliban Republicans seemed to have forgotten, they were elected to run the country, not shut it down. The US population is 350+ million. Not everyone thinks the same way.”

Matt: “But the Taliban Republicans…I guess I shouldn’t use that term…believe the majority of people who elected them support their Taliban-like behavior.”

Jordan: “That might be true for some districts. And you asked what I thought caused the Revenge Revolution. Well, a major contributor is people who act and think that their way is the only right way. No consideration for a different views and no compromising because compromising would tarnish their principles. Just like the Taliban.”

Matt: “You mentioned forcing out John Boehner as a key event. Why?”

Jordan: “The Taliban Republicans focused on forcing him out with no plan to govern afterwards. It is one thing to disagree. But if you disagree you need an alternative solution. Anyone who’s run an organization knows practical alternatives are critical…and one needs to be willing to work with others to develop alternatives. Just saying no is not a realistic solution.”

Matt: “Why do you think the Taliban Republicans didn’t propose some practical alternatives…or at least be willing to compromise?”

Jordan: “Really want to know why?”

Matt: “Yes, please.”

Jordan: “Because virtually all of them, maybe all of them, are lawyers. And for many lawyers, events involving people who have a different view are a zero-sum game – a winner and a loser. Most lawyers have never run organizations where you have to compromise. You just can’t walk out of a courtroom and say gee, lost that one. When you run an organization, all involved live with the decision.”

Matt: “But aren’t most members of Congress lawyers?”

Jordan: “Yes. And listen to members of Congress who’ve been around a while. Those members talk about when a light bulb when on in their head. They started to get things done when they learned the art of compromising.”

Matt: “Compromise is a word not in the lexicon of Taliban Republicans.”

Jordan: “That’s my point. Let’s take a break, then address the other examples.”

#164 VW: Throw the Bums Out!

10 Saturday Oct 2015

Posted by Jordan Abel in Corporate Policy, Gov't Policy, Societal Issues

≈ Leave a comment

Scene: coffee shop near office. Jordan meets Matt, a reporter for a major newspaper. Matt interviewed Jordan for an earlier series of articles. This entry a continuation of #163.

Matt: “I know we agreed to talk about the book. But during the break a couple more questions about VW came to mind.”

Jordan: “OK, but not too many.”

Matt: “Just in case POTUS’ office might have called you for advice…this is all hypothetical of course…”

Jordan: “Of course.”

Matt: “…what would you have told POTUS after hearing the congressional testimony of VW’s head of US operations?”

Jordan: “You mean Michael Horn?”

Matt: “Yes, Mr. Horn.”

Jordan: “Did you ever listen to Car Talk on NPR with Tom and Ray Magliozzi?”

Matt: “All guys listened to Car Talk. Great show.”

Jordan: “And what did Tom say when an answer was obviously wrong or farfetched?”

Matt: “B-o-o-o-o-o-gus.”

Jordan: “I think Mr. Horn’s explanation to the congressional committee qualifies as B-O-G-U-S.”

Matt: “Why so?”

Jordan: “Horn, excuse me Mr. Horn, claimed none of the senior management at VW knew about the software program override. Only a couple of rogue engineers were responsible.”

Matt: “What’s wrong with that explanation? GM said only a couple of mid-level engineers knew about the ignition switch design flaw.”

Jordan: “The ignition switch for GM…or any auto company…is what I would call a ‘non-issue’ part. I mean, what’s there to get excited about? Yes, and I know GM should have checked the specifications when the part was redesigned.”

Matt: “But the VW diesel program was much higher profile than some ignition switch. So there would have been more scrutiny. Right?”

Jordan: “VW bet the farm on its new diesel engine technology. VW claimed the new engine technology would meet all emissions standards worldwide without the supplemental spray system used by Mercedes and BMW.”

Matt: “See your point. If the company’s future is riding on making the diesel program successful, the program gets lots of attention and scrutiny.”

Jordan: “VW is a very top-down organization – not unusual for a German company. The chances that a few lower-level engineers initiated the emissions override program without approval from senior management is laughable. Even if they did initiate the solution, how would they hid it from others inside VW and from vendors? And tests at the proving grounds? Someone checked to make sure the override system kicked in when cars were tested for emissions in Europe and in the US. Just think about all the states that test for emissions. The override was designed to work with a range of equipment. And no one knew?”

Matt: “You really think the CEO knew about the software program?”

Jordan: “Here’s what I think. The CEO knew the new diesel engines did not meet emissions standards. And the CEO directed engineering to fix the problem. And this is what doesn’t pass the smell test, the CEO says to the engineers, in effect, ‘Fix the problem but don’t give me any details about the solution.'”

Matt: “The CEO might be technically right claiming he did not know the details.”

Jordan: “That’s like a mafia don, after telling Guido to take care of so-and-so, claiming he did not know what happened.”

Matt: “At some point, the CEO has to ask, ‘Is the problem fixed? And he asks the follow-up question, ‘Does the solution meet all emissions standards worldwide?”

Jordan: “If the answer is ‘yes, it meets all standards for testing,’ or similar words, then the CEO needs to ask, ‘What about standards while driving?'”

Matt: “It’s easy to be a Monday-morning quarterback and say, ‘you could have…’ or ‘you should have…’ Are you being fair? Are you being a Monday-morning quarterback?”

Jordan: “Matt, the questions I’m asking are so basic that anyone with a brain the size of a pea would ask them. As CEO you bet the future of the entire company on one technology and you expect us to believe you don’t probe to find out if it really works?”

Matt: “His answer doesn’t seem logical.”

Jordan: “Here’s another test of my rationale. Tonight tell your wife you are taking all the money out of the 401k’s and other accounts. Then you are going to Las Vegas and play poker because you have a new way beat the odds. Then see how many questions she asks.”

Matt: “I cannot imagine how many. Alright, a couple more questions, then we’ll talk about the book. VW said the fix could take a couple of years. Also, VW said it would not buy back any cars from existing owners. Thoughts?”

Jordan: “More chutzpah from VW. First comment – tell VW and the owners the cars cannot be registered in any state without the fix. Emissions are 40x the target level and a safety and environmental hazard.”

Matt: “For VW diesels owners, not being able to register seems unfair.”

Jordan: “VW buys them a new car or provides a rental at no cost until their car meets emissions standards.”

Matt: “VW said it would not buy back any cars.”

Jordan: “What I said to POTUS…hypothetically, of course…was TS. VW knowingly broke the law. And not just one year but 3-4 years. The cars have 40x times allowable emissions. Get VW owners a new car or rental until the problem is fixed. Criminals do not get to make the rules.”

Matt: “I know emissions are a problem but people drive old cars with high emissions. What about your Miata? What about cars from the 1950’s and 1960’s?”

Jordan: “All those cars met emissions standards when introduced. Previous model year cars have always been grandfathered for safety and emissions standards. Beside the number of cars without emissions equipment is small…and owners don’t drive many miles.”

Matt: “Back to the really tough question – criminal intent. Do you charge the VW exec’s with a crime?”

Jordan: “Absolutely. Some of the guys at the top need to go to jail. I cannot speak about the guilt of Mr. Horn. There were several layers of management above him and he was not calling the shots.”

Matt: “If the US guy is innocent, that means prosecuting through the EC or in German courts. What’s the likelihood of a conviction?”

Jordan: “VW exec’s need to feel real pain. Otherwise they will continue to give the finger to regulators in the US and Europe. My hypothetical suggestion to POTUS was initiate an all-out effort by DOJ, EPA and the state DA’s to bring the VW exec’s to trial. It needs to be a public trial. No plea bargaining. No consent decree with a fine. Make it as painful as possible.”

Matt: “What about saving the VW brand? All the dealers; all the customers and suppliers?”

Jordan: “Cleaning house at the top of VW and jail time for those involved is the only way to save the company.”

Matt: “As the old Brooklyn Dodger fans used to shout, ‘Throw the bums out.'”

(We’ll talk about Matt’s book the next session)

#163 VW Emissions Debacle

08 Thursday Oct 2015

Posted by Jordan Abel in Corporate Policy, General Motors, Gov't Policy, Societal Issues

≈ 1 Comment

Scene: coffee shop near office. Jordan meets Matt, a reporter for a major newspaper. Matt interviewed Jordan for an earlier series of articles.

Jordan: “Matt, been a long time. Nice to see you.”

Matt: “Nice to see you Jordan.”

Jordan: “Tell me about the book you’re working on.”

Matt: “That’s one of the reasons I called you. Before we talk about the book, I want to ask you about an issue that still troubles me…and that you can provide some insight.”

Jordan: “What’s that?”

Matt: “The VW emissions debacle – programming the software to rig the emissions tests. And I have it on good authority that someone in POTUS’ office called you for advice when it happened.”

Jordan: “You know I can’t confirm whether anyone called, even though it’s a few years later. What I can tell you is what I would have told them if they had called.”

Matt: “OK, we’ll frame the conversation as a hypothetical. I’ll pretend I’m from POTUS’ office. Now, what’s your take on what really happened at VW?”

Jordan: “I only know what I read in the papers. But if what has been reported is anywhere close to the facts, the action by VW was the most blatant violation of federal auto laws by far. Nothing else comes close.”

Matt: “I know this might sound odd but what’s so blatant? Other companies have violated safety laws. VW’s violation was only emissions.”

Jordan: “C’mon. Emissions are a safety issue…a safety issue for society. But the real difference is VW violated the laws knowingly. And from all indications, the violations were directed by senior management.”

Matt: “You really think senior management knew?”

Jordan: “If senior management didn’t know, they all should be fired. Probably should be fired anyway. I mean, the head of US operations – Horn, Michael Horn – was told at least two years before the public announcement.”

Matt: “So one of his underlings says, ‘Houston, we have a problem.’ And the top dog responds, ‘OK.'”

Jordan: “Allegedly, Mr. Horn – great name for a car guy – never bothers to probe. Where were such questions as, ‘What is the problem?’; ‘How severe?’; ‘What are the consequences?’; ‘How long will it take to get fixed?’; ‘Were any EPA or NHTSA rules broken?’; ‘What will the fix cost?’; and a bunch of other obvious questions you’d expect from senior management.”

Matt: “As bad as VW’s violation was, they’re not the first. What’s different about VW than say GM’s failure of the ignition switch?

Jordan: “Fair question. I think two major differences. First GM was at fault for the design. No question. But the intent to defraud, if there was one, was confined to one or two people. I am not aware of any senior managers charged with fraud.”

Matt: “Shouldn’t GM have caught the failure in testing or at least a potential problem during a review of the specifications?”

Jordan: “Yes. My understanding is the design engineer also signed off on the changes. No having an independent review was a mistake and a flaw in GM procedures.”

Matt: “What’s the second difference?”

Jordan: “People get upset when I explain – and claim – some of the deaths linked to the ignition switch failure can be attributed to driver behavior.”

Matt: “How so. Doesn’t seem right, but how so?”

Jordan: “You know enough about cars that if the power steering and power brakes…actually power-assisted steering and brakes…fail you can still maneuver and stop the car.”

Matt: “My grandfather had an old pick-up truck that he used to let me drive. The truck had manual steering and brakes. It was a bit harder to steer but not that much.”

Jordan: “Most of the deaths attributed the ignition switch were younger people so it’s doubtful the drivers had any experience, or even knowledge, of operating a car without power steering and brakes. Plus…”

Matt: “Plus what?”

Jordan: “Some of the drivers and occupants were not wearing seatbelts. Probably one out of every 5 or 6 people, maybe more.”

Matt: “Hadn’t thought about not wearing belts. Belts are operated mechanically and work whether or not the car has any power.”

Jordan: “Like I said, not a very popular observation. I’m not saying GM’s not at fault. Just that the effort to deceive was confined to a couple of people.”

Matt: “I know we could talk about problems at Toyota, the airbag supplier Takata but let’s go back to VW. What do you think the penalty should be?”

Jordan: “You mean, what did I tell POTUS’ office had they asked?”

Matt: “Yes, had they asked.”

Jordan: “At a minimum VW needs to fix the 11,000,000 diesel cars with the emissions override program. Then for customers who are dissatisfied with lower performance, lower mpg, or whatever, VW should buy back the cars.”

Matt: “At what price?”

Jordan: “Current list price. No allowance for depreciation. And maybe even some sales tax. People have to buy another car.”

Matt: “What about people who want to keep their VW?”

Jordan: “Some compensation for reduced value of the used car.”

Matt: “What about penalties?”

Jordan: “The potential fine in the US is something like $18, billion. That’s 18 and nine zeros. Not sure about Europe.”

Matt: “What about the government forcing VW to cease operations? At least stop selling in the US.”

Jordan: “Doing so might make some people feel good. But doing so makes the current owners SOL, as it were. If the market forces them out of business, OK. But the government should not.”

Matt: “No easy solutions. What about the VW executives?”

Jordan: “Someone or some bodies need some jail time. There was clear intent by VW management to defraud. Defraud government, consumers and the general public. The icing on the cake is VW sought Green Seal approval. Imagine, a Green Seal for a car that spewed out 40 times allowable emissions. What gall. Anything less than jail time would not be a deterrent for others.”

Matt: “Thanks for the briefing…just in case POTUS’ office asked for your opinion. Let’s get more coffee, then back to the book.”

#160 What Is Education and How Should We Measure? (Part 8)

19 Saturday Sep 2015

Posted by Jordan Abel in Education Issues, Gov't Policy, Societal Issues

≈ 2 Comments

First-time readers, this blog is set in the future (sometime after 2020). Each entry assumes the Revenge Revolution has occurred. For more about the anticipated 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution — and more about the author, Entry #1. Note: most characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations. You’ll catch on quickly. Thanks for your time and interest…and comments.

Scene: Conversation about education starts Entry #153. Jordan and JC, a long-time friend (and frequent character) are having dinner. Time of year – just about when school starts. End of previous entry, Jordan states, “What society can do is for kids who caught a bad break with parents, or made a stupid decision and quit school, we will help you get your education.”

JC: How are you going to help these kids?”

Jordan: “You mean how are we going to help them. Go back to an earlier part of this conversation — we talked about setting clear, easy-to-understand goals.”

JC: “I agree with the goal setting. Who’s really going to set the goals, the local school board?”

Jordan: “No. That has been the problem. Too much variation in quality among districts.”

JC: “Then there has to be a national standard. With a national standard, do local school boards decide how to achieve to the goal…at least within reason?”

Jordan: “Exactly. As much as I am for national standards, I also realize that executing to achieve a national standard might be different in California than in Charlotte or New York. Each area has certain challenges that are unique to the area.”

JC: “OK, I’ll buy the argument for a national standard. But why let the local districts decide how to achieve? There will be so much variation, which seems to defeat the purpose.”

Jordan: “We need buy in to make this work. People become more committed to a achieving a goal when they have some input. Allowing the local communities some degree of freedom is not only necessary but a smart move to get local participation and commitment.”

JC: “Will having higher-level goals help get rid of what seems to be the ‘solution de jour’ for education?”

Jordan: “I hope so. No doubt it will take a few years. By the way, some specific proposal come to mind as a solution de jour?”

JC: “The most recent is from your current location, Charlotte.”

Jordan: “I didn’t have time to read the Charlotte Observer this morning. What’s the latest proposal?”

JC: “The school board wants each school to have a limited percentage of kids below the poverty line. I guess the school board thinks the ‘education fairy’ is going to sprinkle pixy dust and make everything better if only so many kids are below the poverty line.”

Jordan: “That’s the kind of proposal we need to get rid of. I understand these kids have it tough. But limiting disadvantaged kids to a certain percentage is addressing the symptom, not the cause. Besides a percentage-based plan will drive more affluent kids to private school and make it nearly impossible to recruit a top-notch superintendent.”

JC: “No. But Charlotte is supposedly a progressive city. What’s the issue recruiting a superintendent?”

Jordan: “Charlotte has gone through school superintendents like crap through a goose.”

JC: “A bit graphic don’t you think?”

Jordan: “Maybe, but true. They’ve run off two good ones in the last 3-4 years and now refuse to promote an assistant who has 30-some years’ experience. She knows the system inside out and add the people. Seems to me the school board ought to seek stability rather than churning the system yet again.”

JC: “What about support for teachers?”

Jordan: “North Carolina legislature gives teachers a token bonus and cannot understand why teachers are unhappy and leaving the state. NC is on a race to the bottom and is now 48th or 49^th in teacher pay. A few years ago it was above the national average.”

JC: “North Carolina seems like an example of what not to do.”

Jordan: “You got that right. Many residents, especially those who moved from the north are dumbfounded…and frustrated.”

JC: “Hate to ask this, but are some Charlotte school board members still fighting the Civil War…or Brown v. Board?”

Jordan: “Many view the Civil War and Brown v. Board as the same issue. The school board is mostly locals. Maybe it’s time to start another civil war, but this time the war will be about education and not slavery.”

JC: “A sidebar. When you read the Charlotte Observer today (September 14, 2015), make sure you read the letters to the editor.”

Jordan: “OK, what was the letter about? No, let me guess. The Civil War.”

JC: “Bingo. And the reason the South seceded was not about slavery but because of taxes. Those damn Yankees were overtaxing the southern states and they had to secede.”

Jordan: “Taxes? I’ve never heard that before. What taxes?”

JC: “Who knows? Sorry for the interruption. What about a civil war focused on education?”

Jordan: “The strategy would be to have those damn Yankees start running for school board and state house and senate. Might take 15-20 years to secure a majority vote on school boards but the effort would be worthwhile.”

JC: “You need to speak more southern. The proper term is ‘might could’ take 15-20 years.”

Jordan: “OK, might could. In addition to Yankee candidates, we need to appeal to Yankee parents with school-age kids and older people with grandchildren.”

JC: “Want my guess about how long it will take to get control?”

Jordan: “More than 15-20 years?”

JC: “No, a lot less. Once the movement gets started, the change will occur quickly. Look what happened with the LGBT movement.”

Jordan: “I am still amazed how quickly societal attitudes changes and how quickly lives changed.”

JC: “I think most people were ready for a change but needed someone to take the lead. Then they jumped on board.”

Jordan: “Well, my friend, what are we…notice the we part…going to do about starting the ‘Teach Kids to Think’ movement?”

JC: “First, let’s call it the ‘TKT Movement – teach kids to think movement, or TKT².”

Jordan: “I like TKT² because the ‘squared’ part forces people to think about the acronym.”

JC: “Well, while we’re thinking, I think I need a break.”

#159 What Is Education and How Should We Measure? (Part 7)

13 Sunday Sep 2015

Posted by Jordan Abel in Education Issues, Gov't Policy, Societal Issues

≈ Leave a comment

First-time readers, this blog is set in the future (sometime after 2020). This entry assumes the Revenge Revolution has occurred. For more about the anticipated 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution — and more about the author, Entry #1. Note: most characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations. You’ll catch on quickly. Thanks for your time and interest…and comments.

Scene: Conversation about education starts Entry #153. Jordan and JC, a long-time friend (and frequent character) are having dinner. Time of year – just about when school starts. Jordan and JC continue conversation after talking informally to some people at nearby tables.

JC: “So what do you find out? People think the idea of earning a merit badge for completing certain ‘courses for dummies’ might reduce the stigma of not knowing certain topics?”

Jordan: “The people who I talked to thought the idea was interesting and intriguing. But they also suggested we run a pilot program.”

JC: “The groups I talked to had a similar reaction. The idea of eliminating the stigma of learning basic skills…topics that you should know…was well received.”

Jordan: “What about a pilot program to test the idea?”

JC: “We didn’t talk specifically about a pilot but the groups were concerned that implementing the program too quickly might backfire. They wanted to build support at the grass-roots level rather than mandate from the superintendent’s office…and certainly not from the individual states or Washington.”

Jordan: “Why are so many people in this country against a national education program? When you go off to college or get a job there is an expectation of a certain level of learning. You can’t have 50 different standards.”

JC: “More like 500 or 5,000 different standards if you consider all the school districts.”

Jordan: “Can you imagine every auto plant having different standards for crash worthiness, turn signals, tire quality, etc. At the end of the day, like it or not, education is much like having kids go down an assembly line. In first grade, they start out at the beginning of the assembly line and by the time they complete high school, they are a functioning chassis that can drive away.”

JC: “What about college or trade school?”

Jordan: “College and trade schools add more options and make engine performance better. But when kids graduate from high school, they should be prepared to function in the real world.”

JC: “I agree but I also know that at the end of the assembly line some cars need some repairs. What happens with these cars…kids?”

Jordan: “Let’s fix the kids. Many kids drop out of school because they have not thought through the consequences or there is some tragedy in their life. We…the proverbial societal we…have to grab these kids and make sure they get enough training to get out of high school.”

JC: “Even if they are older?”

Jordan: “Getting people who are older back through high school is even more important. I don’t care if someone is in their 90’s. If they want to finish high school, my vote is to have the taxpayers fund the program.”

JC: “Doesn’t that seem like a waste of money? I mean training someone who is that old?”

Jordan: “I think there is value created from two perspectives. Chances are the person who is without a high school education still pays taxes – sales tax, property tax, whatever. And they will likely pay taxes for at least 40-50 years…and maybe longer. So society owes them something in return.”

JC: “What’s the second benefit?”

Jordan: “The 90 year-old going back to school would be a great example and inspiration for a lot of younger people to complete their education. If great grandma can do it, why can’t you sonny boy or you sonny girl?”

JC: “Great grandma could become the poster child for the merit-badge program. Never too old to complete your education.”

Jordan: “Now, before we get all excited and start slobbering all over each other, we need to make sure this idea can really work. One think to talk about it in the abstract. Another to lay out a practical plan.”

JC: “Maybe we step back for a week or two. The High Holy Days are coming up. This could be on our list for the New Year.”

Jordan: “I agree that something should be done with the idea of taking away the stigma of going back to finish one’s education, no matter how old.”

JC: “You know what I like about this idea? It doesn’t point fingers at whether you are poor or rich, whether you did or did not have a supportive home life and all the other ‘symptoms’ of why someone did not do well in school. The idea holds up a mirror and says, ‘If you want to finish your education, you have to make the effort but we will help you.”

Jordan: “I agree. The school board and the public need to make sure every reasonable opportunity exists for kids to complete high school. But teachers cannot fix the kids life at home. What society can do is for kids who caught a bad break with parents, or made a stupid decision and quit school, we will help you get your education.”

JC: “I like it.”

(Continued)

#152 Real Tax Burden (Part 2 of 2)

15 Saturday Aug 2015

Posted by Jordan Abel in Causes of the Revolution, Economics, Gov't Policy, Societal Issues

≈ Leave a comment

For first-time readers, this blog is set in the future (sometime after 2020). This entry assumes the Revenge Revolution has occurred. For more information about the anticipated 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution — and more background about the author, Entry #1. One another note: almost all characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations. You’ll catch on quickly. Thanks for your time and interest…and comments.

Scene: Jordan and Greenie, a friend who went to the same grammar school, having coffee. Greenie asked Jordan to explain the tax burden on individuals…in simple terms. Jordan just asked Greenie to guess at the total tax burden as percent of income by quintile. Conversation starts #151.

Greenie: “OK, so how’d I do? Was I close?”

Jordan: “Very good. Here’s a chart I pulled up while you were guessing.”

(http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2012/09/19/heres-why-the-47-percent-argument-is-an-abuse-of-tax-data)

Greenie: “Could you please explain this chart to me?

Jordan: “Why don’t you explain it to me?”

Greenie: “OK, the left bar is labeled 0-20, which I take means the 20% of people with the lowest income – the first quintile.”

Jordan: “Correct.”

Greenie: “That group – the 0-20% group – pays about 17.5% of their total income in some form of tax. We don’t know if its income tax, or sales tax…or whatever the tax…just that about 17.5% goes for taxes.”

Jordan: “What’s next?”

Greenie: “The tax burden for the next three groups, or quintiles – 20-40%, 40-60%, 60-80%, increases gradually to what about 27-28% for the 60-80% group.”

Jordan: “What about the highest income group?”

Greenie: “Seems to hover around 30%. And look, for the top 1%, it starts to fall off. Did I read the chart correctly?”

Jordan: “Like a pro.”

Greenie: “My guesses were pretty close. OK, so maybe I got lucky. But all I did was think about it logically. I know income taxes are progressive but almost all other taxes are flat or regressive, so the tax burden is more even than a lot of people think.”

Jordan: “Because most people only talk about income taxes and not total taxes. Besides, you used a phrase that seems to be overlooked in DC – ‘think about it logically.'”

Greenie: “There’s still no logical thinking…even after the Revenge Revolution?”

Jordan: “You tell me. Republicans are still promoting a flat tax. A flat tax would make the share of taxes go down by income quintile. Do Republicans think voters don’t understand what a flat tax does?

Greenie: “I’d be a little more diplomatic. I’d ask how long before lower and middle-income voters realize how Republicans are trying to screw them…again.”

Jordan: “You call that statement more diplomatic? Anyway, some Republicans have forgotten…or hope voters have forgotten…what proposals pushed ordinary people over the edge and started the Revenge Revolution.”

Greenie: “You spend a lot of time inside the beltway. Do you have any insight into how Republicans think? That’s assuming they really think.”

Jordan: “Be nice.”

Greenie: “Alright…but just for a little while.”

Jordan: “A few days ago I was invited to play golf with the former Speaker of the House and the former Senate Majority Leader.”

Greenie: “Fun day, huh? Who did you offend? Sorry.”

Jordan: “It was an interesting day. We had some frank discussions about the Republican Party and why they lost their base during the Revenge Revolution.”

Greenie: “Did they listen? I suppose they want to get their old jobs back.”

Jordan: “Yes, I think so.”

Greenie: “Can you tell me anything else?”

Jordan: “Not really. Promised I would keep the conversation very quiet. I can tell you to give these guys some time to get their act together and then start to turn around the Republican Party.”

Greenie: “You mean Republicans might become rational again…and not so far off in the weeds?”

Jordan: “No guarantee, but they just might.”

Greenie: “There is hope after all.”

#151 The Real Tax Burden – Not What You Think (Part 1)

12 Wednesday Aug 2015

Posted by Jordan Abel in Economics, Federal Budget, Gov't Policy

≈ 2 Comments

Scene: Jordan having coffee with Greenie, a friend who attended the same grammar school.

Greenie: “Jordan, it’s been a while. I think the last time we had coffee was with JC.”

Jordan: “That was months ago. How ya’ doing?”

Greenie: “Getting back into circulation. Had some tough times. You know, family issues. By the way, thanks for the note.”

Jordan: “You’re welcome. Glad life is getting better.”

Greenie: “Moving on, I need some advice.”

Jordan: “From me?”

Greenie: “I need to understand some economic issues. Nothing personal.”

Jordan: “I’m not good at personal advice. And some people in Washington don’t like my professional advice.”

Greenie: “Well, I do. So there. What I really need to understand is taxes. What is the real tax burden?”

Jordan: “In total or by income group?”

Greenie: “By income group. There’s a lot of babble inside the beltway about a flat income tax. Mostly among Republicans, but even some Democrats seem to support the idea.”

Jordan: “And what’s your concern? Flat tax seems fair, doesn’t it? Everyone pays the same percentage of income. What could be more fair?”

Greenie: “You sound like one of the talking heads on Fox News. The argument assumes that income tax is the only tax.”

Jordan: “You and I know it’s not the only tax…but focusing on income tax makes a great sound bite.”

Greenie: “Coming in on the train I made a list of different kinds of taxes…and I probably missed some.”

Jordan: “What’s on your list?”

Greenie: “Income tax – federal, state and for some people, local income tax. Then there are taxes for Social Security and Medicare.”

Jordan: “Just to clarify, Social Security and Medicare are technically insurance programs but for this discussion, leave them as taxes.”

Greenie: “Don’t start confusing me. To me Social Security and Medicare are taxes. I also had on the list sales taxes, excise taxes – you know, your phone bill, property taxes, plus all those fees you have to pay for different things. Those seem like taxes to me.”

Jordan: “You mean like the fees you pay when you rent a car?”

Greenie: “Yes. I rented a car in Houston and taxes and fees were 30-35% of the total bill. That seems outrageous. Have I missed any taxes?”

Jordan: “Business taxes. Every year my consulting business has to pay a licensing fee to the state and then pay another fee to file an annual report. That’s on top of the income taxes.”

Greenie: “Speaking of licenses, what about the fee for license-plate renewal and what about the fee for renewing your driver’s license?”

Jordan: “Your list is a great start. We probably have the taxes that affect most people.”

Greenie: “Has anyone ever calculated how much of someone’s income all these taxes and fees account for? If you think about it, many of these taxes and fees might be more of a burden to lower-income groups. I wonder if taxes in the US are more regressive than progressive.”

Jordan: “Hold on. If I sound like a talking head on Fox News, then you sound like a screaming liberal.”

Greenie: “I’ll take that as a compliment.”

Jordan: “Yes, there are some estimates of tax burden by income quintile. Wanna take a guess at the percentages?

Greenie: “If I’m close will you buy me another coffee?”

Jordan: “Have as many refills as you want.”

Greenie: “You want my guesses or what the Republicans would say?”

Jordan: “First, pretend you are a Republican. I know it’s hard, but just pretend.”

Greenie: “Republicans would claim the top two quintiles pay most of the taxes. That’s why the system is unfair to higher-income earners and there should be a flat tax.”

Jordan: “The top two quintiles pay most of the taxes because…duh…they earn the most money. What about payment as a percent of income?”

Greenie: “I’ll bet for lower-income people, taxes as a percent of income are a lot higher than most people realize.”

Jordan: “Why? Give me an example.”

Greenie: “Property tax. The flat-tax crowd focuses on income tax. But if you rent, you still pay property taxes. Your rent is a bit higher every month…plus there is no deduction on your income tax.”

Jordan: “Alright, give me your guess – all taxes as a percent of income. Guess by income quartile…I mean quintile.”

Greenie: “Here goes. Lowest quintile, probably 15-20% of total income in taxes. The top dogs, maybe 25-30%. The rest of them someplace between. How’d I do?”

(To be continued)

#150 Republicans Surprised by Revolution (Part 2 of 2)

08 Saturday Aug 2015

Posted by Jordan Abel in Causes of the Revolution, Gov't Policy, Societal Issues

≈ Leave a comment

Scene: Congressional Country Club. Jordan was invited to play golf with former Speaker of the House and Senate Majority Leader. Continuation of Entry #149.

John Boy: “OK, we’ve played nine holes…and no more OB’s. I hate being out-of-bounds. Let’s talk some more.”

Mackey: “Jordan, you implied you weren’t surprised by the Revenge Revolution? Tell me the truth.”

Jordan: “You know I always tell you what I think is the truth…and not some mumbo jumbo based on some ideology.”

John Boy: “We know. That’s why we called you. Were you surprised by the Revenge Revolution?”

Jordan: “Truthfully, no. Signs of the revolution were evident for a long time.”

Mackey: “Long time? How long? Are you the Great Carnac or some psychic?”

John Boy: “When did you first think about the possibility of a revolution?”

Jordan: “The idea start kicking around in my head. Then I decided to start putting ideas on paper.”

Mackey: “When was that?”

Jordan: “Mid-2013.”

Mackey: “You’re kidding, mid-2013.”

Jordan: “I started a blog later in 2013. The blog was more of a sense check for me about the idea of a revolution.”

John Boy: “Did you promote the blog?”

Jordan: “Not really. I told some people about the blog but, like I said, I wrote it for my own edification.”

John Boy: “Alright, you start the blog some later in 2013. When did the idea of a revolution migrate from maybe, coulda’, sorta’ to more likely? Most people really don’t look at situations like you do.”

Mackey: “Right. When do you think John Boy and I should have started to smell the problem?”

Jordan: “By mid-2015, there were lots of signs.”

John Boy: “Tell me one.”

Jordan: “The most obvious was when Trump entered the race to become the Republican presidential nominee…and then shot to the top of the polls among Republicans.”

John Boy: “I still don’t understand how Trump became the leading candidate. What was his appeal?”

Jordan: “Trump epitomized everything the Republicans had been promoting. Except he didn’t have a muzzle on his mouth or care about pleasing large donors.”

John Boy: “He was bad for Republicans.”

Jordan: “You say he was bad but think about what the Donald said. On almost every issue, he just blurted out the unvarnished version of what many Republicans had said for years.”

John Boy: “Unfortunately, you’re right. The Donald didn’t sugarcoat anything. He was raw, unedited footage.”

Jordan: “Reminded me of how we used to talk at the fraternity house…but without all the expletives.”

Mackey: “The liberal media had a field day, manipulating a lot of what Trump said.”

Jordan: “C’mon Mackey. Trump was an expert at self-promotion. If anything he manipulated the media, not the other way around.”

John Boy: “Alright, the Donald lays bare what the Republicans had been promoting for years…but much more subtly, of course. So what’s new about that?”

Jordan: “The Republican majority at the time…”

Mackey: “…and we were in charge then…”

Jordan: “…the Republican majority begins to realize the ideas were contrary to their best interests. Without the sugar-coating, the real positions become clear. But the Donald wasn’t the real problem. The Donald was a symptom, not the cause.”

John Boy: “You mean like Republicans promoting tax cuts for the wealthy, trying to kill Obamacare, trying to kill Medicare and Social Security. You think that was the problem?”

Jordan: “Exactly what I mean. The Republican base started to realize the Republican Party did not have their best interest in mind.”

John Boy: “It took a while for the base to wake up to the real intent of the Republican agenda…and that the effects of many Republican programs were really ‘take-aways’ and not benefits for most of the people.”

Jordan: “With one more fatal flaw. The Republican position on gun control. You’ve got an armed camp that’s not happy and very hungry.”

Mackey: “You know, John Boy, we forgot the adage about keeping the voters’ stomachs full. You can get away with a lot of things when people have full stomachs.”

John Boy: “Republicans got more concerned about satisfying rich donors…Koch brothers, Adleson and some others…than we did about doing the right thing.”

Mackey: “So, over the years we arm a bunch of people, then start to take away from them income, healthcare and retirement benefits. And we wonder why they got upset?”

John Boy: “Any other insights, Jordan?”

Jordan: “Not now. I think you answered your own question about why the Republican base became part of the Revenge Revolution.”

John Boy: “Unfortunately, yes. And it seems so simple to understand. How did we miss it?”

Jordan: “Now, how ’bout $2 Nassau on the back nine?”

Mackey: “I can’t concentrate. I’m frustrated. All the signs of the Revenge Revolution were there…and we, Republican we, did nothing to change our behavior.”

John Boy: “Well at least we’ve admitted our mistake. Mackey, I think it’s time we repented publicly.”

Mackey: “You’re on the tee box, Jordan.”

#149 Republicans Surprised by the Revenge Revolution (1 of 2)

05 Wednesday Aug 2015

Posted by Jordan Abel in Causes of the Revolution, Gov't Policy, Societal Issues

≈ 1 Comment

For first-time readers, this blog is set in the future (sometime after 2020). This entry assumes the Revenge Revolution has occurred. For more information about the anticipated 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution — and more background about the author, Entry #1. One another note: almost all characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations. You’ll catch on quickly. Thanks for your time and interest…and comments.

Scene: Jordan’s office in Washington, DC.

Gelly: “Jordan, the Speaker of the House is on the phone. Line 2.”

Jordan: “The Speaker or former Speaker?”

Gelly: “Former Speaker. I keep forgetting he’s now Minority leader.”

Jordan: “He’d like to forget, too.” (Picks up phone.) “Hello John Boy. To what do I owe this honor?”

John Boy: “Morning, Jordan. The honor is you are one of the few people in Washington who can keep their mouth shut.”

Jordan: “I’ll take that as a compliment.”

John Boy: “So intended. Need a favor…a very discreet favor.”

Jordan: “How many I help you?”

John Boy: “I need you to accidentally run into Mackey and me at Congressional Country Club.”

Jordan: “Tell me more.”

John Boy: “Nine o’clock tee time tomorrow morning if you can make it.”

Jordan: “I’ll be there. What’s the topic? Do I need to prepare?”

John Boy: “I’ll tell you when you get there. Check in at the Pro Shop first…and remember to take your clubs.”

(Next morning at Congressional CC Pro Shop.) Head Pro: “Mr. Abel, you’re all set to go. Your party is on the putting green. Enjoy the round.”

Jordan: “Thanks.” (Putting green.) “Morning, John Boy.”

John Boy: “Morning, Jordan. Have a game today?”

Jordan: “Need a fourth?”

John Boy: “You’re the third. Mackey and I are playing. We’d love to have you join us. There will be no 4^th.”

Jordan: “I’d be delighted. Do I have time to hit some balls?”

John Boy: “We tee off in about 30 minutes. We can leave earlier if we want.”

(After hitting balls on the driving range.)

Jordan: “OK, I’m ready. Morning, Mackey.”

Mackey: “Morning, Jordan. Nice to see you. Ready for some golf?”

Jordan: “Do we have a game today?”

John Boy: “Not for the front nine anyway. We need to pick your brain. I got a 4-bag cart and a caddy to drive and stay out-of-the-way. We can walk and talk in private.”

(First tee box.)

Jordan: “OK, what’s the topic? And why all the deception about me accidentally stumbling on you guys here?”

Mackey: “Too many eyes and ears…and hidden mikes around. You played along well, by the way.”

Jordan: “So what’s the question?”

Mackey: “Simple. Republican leadership…in fact most high-end Republicans…were caught off guard by the Revenge Revolution. What really surprised us what the widespread use of firearms among many of the Southern Republicans.”

John Boy: “You mean former Republicans. What happened?

Jordan: “Simple.”

John Boy: “Simple. The folks that rebelled should have been grateful.”

Jordan: “Grateful for what?”

Mackey: “We supported causes that we good for them. Like the rights under the 2^nd Amendment to buy and own all kinds guns – even a 50 caliber semiautomatic.”

John Boy: “Let’s just think about what Jordan asked us. He asked why these people were not more grateful. What did we do for them, aside from the 2^nd Amendment stuff?”

Mackey: “We fought for tax cuts, especially the top end rates and on capital gains. We fought Obamacare and fought to eliminate those socialists programs Medicare and Medicaid.”

John Boy: “And then we fought to have more school vouchers for private schools, fought against a higher minimum wage…and fought a bunch of other stuff.”

Mackey: “These guys should have been grateful. But then they turn on us. I don’t get it.”

Jordan: “You’re forgetting one key point, in fact the key point.”

John Boy: “Quit the obfuscation, Jordan and get to the point. What did we supposedly forget?”

Jordan: “To fill their bellies.”

Mackey: “Fill their bellies?”

Jordan: “You created little monsters with guns who were hungry and say no way to get fed…except by revolting. Even the old white guys were frustrated and revolted.”

John Boy: “I need to think about that comment. Let’s play some golf.”

Mackey: “John Boy, you need to hit a provisional. I think you’re drive is out-of-bounds.”

Ebook format of recent series of entries on Federal Budget. 15 05 23 Do They Really Understand Entries #121-#130

#148 European Economic Amnesia (Part 3 of 3)

01 Saturday Aug 2015

Posted by Jordan Abel in Causes of the Revolution, Economics, Gov't Policy, Societal Issues

≈ Leave a comment

Scene: Jordan and former colleague, whose views lean far right, are at dinner. Conversation started Entry 146. (More about author and the general content of the Blog, Entry #1.)

Jordan: “Wow, this is a great dessert. We should skip the entrée and go straight for dessert.”

Steve: “Not a chance. We’ve spent too much time training the staff on how to customize the salad.”

Jordan: “Alright, back to the topic at hand.”

Steve: “You agreed that government and households could have the same economic behavior…but then said the timing for the behavior was 180 degrees apart. Tell me why.”

Jordan: “Use Greece as an example. Germany clamped down on spending by the Greek government.”

Steve: “As they should have. Spending was out of control.”

Jordan: “Hold on. Think about the restrictions that were forced on Greece. Banking. No withdrawals…well, very limited withdrawals.”

Steve: “So, why is that a problem?”

Jordan: “Where was the money going to come from to help grow the economy? People had no money. Even if they have savings, they could not access the account because of the banking restrictions. Businesses that exported could not buy goods from other countries so their export business dried up…and Greece needed foreign currency.”

Steve: “So government can’t spend any more because they were to pay down the debt. I’m beginning to see the box they were in. There’s no money and no way to start the economy.”

Jordan: “You’ve got it. Not so hard to understand, is it?”

Steve: “But no one…and I mean not one of the people I listen to or read has put the situation in such understandable terms. Why?”

Jordan: “You’re a good example why we all need to get news from multiple sources. Why haven’t your sources explained it? Ideology and politics. Lots of credible economists have made the point that someone has to spend for the economy to grow.”

Steve: “What you said earlier. Your spending is my income, right? As much as it troubles me to say this, I see why government has to spend more in a recession…and especially a depression. This really pains me but I even understand the extra spending might increase the deficit.”

Jordan: “I’m loving this conversation.”

Steve: “Don’t slobber all over yourself yet. What about savings? You said the government should act like a household. When does the government save?”

Jordan: “When the economy is stronger. If the economy is in a growth mode…and has been for a while…it’s OK to raise taxes a bit and start to pay down the deficit.”

Steve: “I knew there was a trick. Raising taxes. We need to cut taxes…except for Greece, where they needed to raise taxes. Those slackards weren’t paying.”

Jordan: “Ok, what side do you want to take? Raise taxes and lower the deficit or…”

Steve: “Cut taxes and lower the deficit. That’s the only fair way.”

Jordan: “What Kool-Aid have you been drinking? Or maybe just too much wine.”

Steve: “You better hope it’s not the wine. I’m driving, remember? What’s wrong with lower taxes and reducing the deficit? That’s good economic policy.”

Jordan: “The math just doesn’t work is what’s wrong. Voodoo economics.”

Steve: “The tax rate is too high. It’s a disincentive to work.”

Jordan: “I admit that at some point the tax rate becomes a disincentive.”

Steve: “I knew I was right.”

Jordan: “A maximum marginal tax rate of say 50% or more might be a disincentive to the very wealthy. A maximum rate of 75% would expand the field. But I’m talking about a marginal rate of much less than 50%.”

Steve: “Your argument is weak. We need a tax cut.”

Jordan: “We’ve gotten somewhat sidetracked. But I want you to do one thing. Find some empirical evidence where a significant cut to a reasonable maximum marginal tax rate reduced the deficit.”

Steve: “That’s not a fair request.”

Jordan: “You’re right. It’s not a fair request.”

Steve: “See another trick.”

Jordan: “No trick. But the request is not fair because you cannot find any credible data. You need to put your political ideology aside and solve the problem.”

Steve: “Are you saying there is only one solution…yours or whoever you believe in?”

Jordan: “What I’m saying is if you want to solve an economic problem – Greece, for example – you need to understand what drives the economy.”

Steve: “And you think it’s not just politics.”

Jordan: “It’s the same problem you face when trying to find oil and gas reserves. You need to understand what rocks and what formations are most likely to hold oil and gas.”

Steve: “You meaning wishing for oil and gas won’t do?”

Jordan: “I’m glad you haven’t lost your sense of humor. No wishing won’t do. No Great Carnac, whether exploring for oil or fixing the economy.”

Steve: “Back to Greece. Why do you think Germany…I mean the EC…put such harsh restrictions on Greece? Didn’t they understand what was likely to happen?”

Jordan: “You were right when you said Germany. Greece was not acting the way Mother Merkel thought Greece should act. You must behave like mother says. Down two, over four. Be good and Mother Merkel will give you a little treat.”

Jordan: “But the kid said, ‘You know what Mother Merkel? I’m not like you.”

Steve: “And then the people of Greece told Mother Merkel to shove it and started a revolution. You think the revolution in Greece motivated the Revenge Revolution in the US?”

Jordan: “The revolution in Greece certainly opened eyes, especially to the younger crowd. But I think the US was headed for a revolution anyway.”

Steve: “Without Greece? Why’s that?”

Jordan: “People in the US were faced with the same underlying cause of all revolutions – inequality.”

Waiter: “Gentlemen, may I get you anything else?”

Steve: “No thanks. The salad and dessert were great…and so was the wine. I’ve just had my fill of economics for the evening. No more.”

Jordan: “I’ll take the check.”

Ebook format of recent series of entries on Federal Budget. 15 05 23 Do They Really Understand Entries #121-#130

usrevolution5

~ USA Headed for a 5th Revolution! Why?

Category Archives: Gov’t Policy

#165 Republican Taliban

#164 VW: Throw the Bums Out!

#163 VW Emissions Debacle

#160 What Is Education and How Should We Measure? (Part 8)

#159 What Is Education and How Should We Measure? (Part 7)

#152 Real Tax Burden (Part 2 of 2)

#151 The Real Tax Burden – Not What You Think (Part 1)

#150 Republicans Surprised by Revolution (Part 2 of 2)

#149 Republicans Surprised by the Revenge Revolution (1 of 2)

#148 European Economic Amnesia (Part 3 of 3)