First-time readers, this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about Revenge Revolution and author, Entry #1. List and general description of entries to date. Annual assessment whether Revolution plausible.
Note: most characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations. Profile of characters. You’ll catch on quickly. Thanks for your time and interest…and comments.
Scene: Jordan’s Office, on phone with nephew of long-time friend. Nephew is taking advanced economics course and been assigned paper to determine if trade agreements cost US workers jobs. Conversation begins Entry #214.
Jordan: “Billy, you asked if automation might be costing jobs in the service industry. What do you think?”
Billy: “I’ve never really thought about it. All the hype in the 2016 presidential election 
was on manufacturing jobs. I don’t remember much talk at all about service jobs.”
Jordan: “That’s because many jobs in the service are not affected by trade agreements. As we talked about, if you want to stay in a hotel in Manhattan, a hotel in Cancun is of no value, no matter how inexpensive it is.”
Billy: “Where should we start?”
Jordan: “We’ll look at some general categories of service sector jobs. Let’s start with 
banking.”
Billy: “As best I can tell, automation and the internet have been responsible for a major loss in banking jobs. You know, the only time I’ve been in a bank is with my grandparents. Other than needing some cash now and then, which I can actually get at the grocery store, why do I need a bank? If people need a bank, put it in the grocery store.”
Jordan: “What about safe-deposit boxes for valuables – jewelry, old coins, pictures, important papers? That kind of stuff.”
Billy: “People store furniture and other items in self-storage units. Why couldn’t you have a self-storage unit of safe-deposit boxes? Most of those self-storage places are open 24×7…and banks sure aren’t. You could make the place as secure as a bank.”
Jordan: “What about the food service industry? We know most jobs are unaffected by trade agreements…but what about automation?”
Billy: “Lots of places…at least the ones I go to…have an iPad-like device on the table for ordering. In most places, people still bring your food but there aren’t many servers around.”
Jordan: “What about automation in the kitchen?”
Billy: “I see more automation all the time, especially at fast food places. And you know what? I think the quality is more consistent and overall, the food tastes better.”
Jordan: “What about delivery services – pizza, FedEx, UPS, even the Post Office? How much has automation affected employment?”
Billy: “From what I understand, a lot. Most of the automation is in areas we don’t see – back office stuff. Also, a lot of drivers are being eliminated by self-driving vehicles. Again, those are in areas we don’t see – one warehouse to another. The deliveries in the neighbor are still by humans…but who knows how long that will last.”
Jordan: “Two more categories and then we’ll call it a wrap.”
Billy: “OK, you’ve really got me thinking.”
Jordan: “What about skilled trades – carpenters, plumbers, electricians, brick layers?”
Billy: “Did you know another uncle has a construction company? Mostly new residential.”
Jordan: “No, tell me more.”
Billy: “When I was 7 or 8 years old, he used to take me to the job sites to watch homes being built. Lots of people hammering, sawing, installing stuff. People everywhere.”
Jordan: “You still go?”
Billy: “I did this past summer and wow, what a change.”
Jordan: “What’s so different?”
Billy: “Most all the heavy-duty construction is done in a factory. The job site is more like assembling Lego’s. He’s even got robot installing lots of bricks.”
Jordan: “Where are all the skilled trades?”
Billy: “Some skilled trades are in the factory to make sure everything installed correctly and a few at the job site for final hook-up. But a lot of skilled trades have been replaced by machines at the factory and workers with fewer skills.”
Jordan: “But none of the people replaced by robots or constructing in a factory were the result of trade agreements, right?”
Billy: “All affected by automation. What’s the final category?”
Jordan: “There are many more industry categories we could address – medicine, legal, auto technicians, for example – but I want you to think about the effect of trade agreements on software development.”
Billy: “Well, it’s really hard to put a wall around electrons. I suppose you could put some sort of tariff on software development.”
Jordan: “Any ideas how?”
Billy: “Not really. Companies could develop software and then put on servers in another country. People in the US could easily access software and their files though the cloud. I just don’t know.”
Jordan: “Billy, what’s your conclusion now? Do trade agreements affect employment in the US?”
Billy: “Some. The real culprit seems to be innovation. And innovation is going to occur with or without a trade agreement.”
Jordan: “What about trying to bring jobs like it used to be in America?”
Billy: “You mean like the Trump slogan from 2016, ‘Make America Great Again’?”
Jordan: “Possible or not?”
Billy: “One thing is for certain. If you try to recreate a by-gone era, it’s guaranteed the rest of the world will run past and the US will fall behind.”
Jordan: “Now you have the foundation for your paper. Countries should try to make sure the playing field is reasonably level for any trade agreement. However…”
Billy: “…thinking one can recreate the past and avoid being realistic about the impact of technology on jobs is fool hearty. Right?”
(End of segment on trade agreements. I know there’s more to cover but enough for now.)
