First-time readers, the blog is usually constructed as a dialogue between characters. The dialogue is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020) and assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about Revenge Revolution and author, Entry #1. List and general description of entries to date. Annual assessment whether Revolution plausible.
Note: most characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations. Profile of characters. You’ll catch on quickly. Thanks for your time and interest…and comments.
Special 2016 Year-End Review. Is the premise of this blog realistic? Is the US headed for a 5th revolution sometime after 2020 – the Revenge Revolution? Or is the premise more like “fake news,” which became so prevalent leading up to the election and continues today? The blog about a 5th US revolution, the Revenge Revolution, was first published in late 2013 – before the campaign for the 2016 presidential election heated up and certainly before anyone took a Trump presidential bid seriously, including Donald Trump.
One can legitimately argue that the Revenge Revolution has already begun — with the election of Donald Trump. Who would have thunk Donald Trump would replace an older, more famous Donald, let alone become president?
Yet, a large percentage of the population voted for a candidate with no prior political experience, no experience running a large organization (the Trump organization despite claims to the contrary is quite small with only about 150 staff members, including family), no demonstrated understanding of macro and micro-economics, no demonstrated understanding of international relations, no demonstrated desire to learn…and a very long record of behavior that many people characterize as unethical and even immoral.
Further, the claims by Trump during the campaign were so outlandish and contrary to facts, that by historical standards, he should have not progressed past one or two primaries. Despite these flaws, Trump gained sufficient votes to win a majority of the Electoral College and become the president elect. I note the Electoral College because Hillary Clinton received about three million more popular votes than Donald Trump.
From my perspective and what I find ironic, is many of the people who voted for Trump seem the most likely to initiate the Revenge Revolution. Why? Because the promise to those voters about returning America to the days of widespread manufacturing and mining jobs for those with limited technical skills is impossible to keep.
As discussed in this blog, I agree some of the manufacturing jobs lost in the US have been shipped to countries with lower labor costs. But the jobs shipped elsewhere are going to suffer the same fate as many manufacturing jobs in the US – being replaced by technology.
For Trumpsters, the reason you have a cell phone, flat-screen TV, iPad, fast internet speed and a car with a bunch of electronic do-dads, is the same reason there are robots doing many of the jobs in the manufacturing and mining sectors (and other sectors as well) formerly done by semi-skilled and even some skilled labor. As unpleasant as this might be for Trumpsters, your vote does not count whether your job is replaced by a robot. You have about as much influence on the fate of your job as 100 years ago when horses couldn’t vote whether families bought a horseless carriage.
In addition, while waiting for the non-existent manufacturing jobs to return, the Trump Administration will likely attempt to dismantle or restructure the basic financial foundation for many retirees – Social Security and Medicare. Although efforts to radically change Social Security and Medicare seem unlikely to succeed, the mere attempt will create widespread anger among today’s Trumpsters.
A few more reasons of a long list why the Trumpsters…and others…will become increasingly incensed.
· Cabinet appointees. Many appointees have no experience running a large organization, public or private. Further, many appointees were selected because of intense opposition to the purpose of the agency – Education, HUD, HHS, EPA, Budget, Interior, etc.
· Financial conflicts of interest. Several cabinet appointees as well as Donald Trump/Trump family are likely to be charged with significant financial conflicts of interest. Many of the people who voted for Trump because of alleged financial conflicts of interest by Hillary Clinton and the Clinton Foundation, will eventually tire of the claims that (i) the president cannot have conflicts of interest and (ii) charges of conflicts by cabinet members are being fabricated by Democrats and the media. The conflicts in the Trump Administration are likely to be so blatant that even the most ardent supporters will be angered.
· Irrational behavior by the president on a number of fronts – nuclear weapons, trade agreements, economic policy are part of a long list. The challenge to other countries of trying to outmatch the US with nuclear arms will be the turning point for many older Trumpsters. These Trumpsters remember as children there was widespread fear in the US of a nuclear holocaust.
· Unbecoming boorish behavior by the president, his direct staff and some cabinet members. The public and even the Republican members of Congress will tire of tirades by the president and staff over even the most minor criticism. The American people want the president and staff to be role models and act like adults, rather than petulant 4-year olds…or even worse, neighborhood bullies.
One final thought…and I’m unsure if the event will have any effect on the likelihood of a Revenge Revolution. To me it is unlikely Trump will finish a 4-year term, whether the term ends because he is forced from office or incapacitated, physically or mentally. If Trump leaves and Mike Pence assumes office, there will be little calming of the unrest among the populous since many voters consider Pence more radical than Trump. Even if Pence is more moderate than Trump in the attempt to restructure agencies and programs — Social Security, Medicare, etc. — his policies will be unable to fulfill many of the campaign promises made to Trumpsters, especially bringing back manufacturing jobs.
Throughout history revolutions have been caused by extreme frustration among the populous. Repeatedly over-promising and under-delivering, especially to ardent supporters, is a sure recipe for creating extreme frustration…and the Revenge Revolution.
Note: after this segment was written, I decided to write another segment about a possible Revenge Revolution. The segments are not continuous but complementary.