First-time readers, the blog is usually constructed as a dialogue between characters.  The dialogue is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020) and assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution.  More about Revenge Revolution and author, Entry #1.  List and general description of entries to date.  Annual assessment whether Revolution plausible.

Note: most characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations.  Profile of characters.  You’ll catch on quickly.  Thanks for your time and interest…and comments.

Normally, I allocate one entry every six months or so as a “sense check” whether the 5^th US revolution, aka Revenge Revolution, seems plausible by say 2020-2025.  Given developments since the election of Donald Trump, and especially given recent actions and statements by the president-elect, I felt compelled to expand “sense-check” entry #232.

If you want to read no farther, my conclusion is this.  A Revenge Revolution is not just a possibility, but is quickly moving to the category of “highly likely.”  In addition, the US is likely to experience another president being assassinated, or at a minimum removed from office.  OK, now the rationale.

Believe what you want…and I don’t care if you voted for Clinton or Trump or a 3^rd party…Trump continues to exhibit behavior that most politely can be described as bizarre and more realistically described as Howdy-Doody like, reacting as would a puppet when various inexperienced people pull the strings.  There is no consistent pattern of behavior, just jerky, random motions. 

Trump’s campaign promised he would effectively “drain the swamp.”  Well, if you want to change the way an organization behaves, rational people know you  cannot simply “blowup” the infrastructure of the organization and expect it to remain standing and operate effectively.     

If you want to lead an organization through the change, you have to demonstrate leadership qualities yourself.  The person trying to initiate the change cannot simply give staff members the finger, belittling the organization they work for and then expect staff members to follow proposed changes enthusiastically.  Plus, if one is going to make change, then there must be a plan to follow that leads away from the current way of operating to a new way of operating.  Change without a clear plan is a sure recipe for chaos. 

So far, Trump has not disclosed anything remotely resembling a plan.   And worse, Trump continues to demonstrate an apparent inability to develop a cohesive plan.  Sending tweets does not constitute a plan.  OK, so you want to cancel Obamacare.  What is the replacement?  The approach is not like tearing down a building before you’ve decided on plans for the new building and converting the land to a parking lot while building plans are crafted.  Such an approach won’t work for making changes to health care, or EPA, or Education or any other agency. 

Assessing the structure and efficiency of the CIA seems a fair goal.  But if you expect support for such an assessment, why on earth would you claim that Julian Assange and WikiLeaks provide more credible information than the CIA?  Such remarks not only fall in the category of “stupid is as stupid does,” but self-destructive.  Such remarks can affect national security and beg for some covert operator(s) to take out “the problem”, i.e., the Donald.  If you think such an idea is impossible in the US, then you’re being incredibly naïve or smoking way too much weed.

If you want the support of the military, it won’t result from merely appointing a couple of generals to your staff.  If you want support of the military, would you claim to know more about field operations than generals in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere? 

If the wacko rhetoric had stopped at the end of the campaign, then many in the affected agencies might have sighed and agreed to move on.  But, no, the wacko behavior has not stopped.  The wacko behavior continues unabated and, if anything seems to have ratcheted up.  Before being briefed by the CIA, the Donald claimed to know “what no one else knows” about potential Russian hacking.  Well, Donald, that means one of two things – either you’re wired to Putin or you’re stupid.

I have a friend who claims Trump is a great negotiator and incredibly smart.  Trump might know how to negotiate a real estate deal, although the track record is anything but stellar.  But Trump incredibly smart?  That’s one of the funniest statements I’ve heard in years.  The man cannot put a coherent paragraph together.  I realize many Trump supporters might not care what he says, but a lot of high-powered people worldwide do. 

If his words and tweets have to be interpreted by staff…as they are now…then how do critical messages get communicated to government agencies, the public and other world leaders?  Why not go ahead and tell the military to launch nuclear missiles…and then sometime later have a staffer clarify the remarks by claiming that’s not what he really meant to say.  Oh well, nuclear war means more new buildings are needed…and the Trump organization can build them. 

Maybe flaunting social norms, ignoring the press, disregarding protocol and thumbing your nose at possible conflicts of interest feeds the Donald’s ego and makes him feel important.  But, Mr. President-elect, you are setting up yourself and the country for failure.  Your behavior is  Richard Nixon on steroids.  Nixon was able to resign.  You are likely not to have that option.

Dictators in other countries might be able to bully the masses and stay in power.  What’s different about the US is the number of arms held by citizens.  Remember the 2^nd Amendment?  And, in case you’ve forgotten, thanks to the NRA many of the arms owned by the citizens are military style and military caliber.  Oops.    

Some icing on the cake.  Discussion of and/or Congressional attempts to overthrow the basic operations of the Federal government, including Social Security, Medicare and some form of health insurance, will add fuel to an environment that is ripe for a revolution.  I find it interesting that soon after the election, I received an email from an ardent Trump supporter, asking me to sign a petition to ensure Medicare is not changed.  Some Trump supporters are starting to connect the dots and apparently are not very happy.  Think about this situation – if a segment of the population starts to rebel using firearms, even a small segment of the population, the local police and military will find it nearly impossible to maintain control.

As for Trump himself, while the Secret Service might be able to protect the president, Trump’s primary NY residence, Trump Tower, and other residences and properties associated with Trump will be easy targets.  Even for Trump Tower, the Secret Service cannot shutdown commerce on 5^th Avenue just because Trump or some of his family is in residence.  Even more challenging is how the Secret Service will prevent IED-drones from being launched from near-by Central Park or even from New Jersey.  OK, so a single drone won’t bring down Trump Tower, and maybe five drones won’t…but five drones with high explosives can cause serious damage and a major fire.

Once it starts, the Revenge Revolution will not stop with taking out one key figure in government.   Unfortunately, if Trump is assassinated then it is likely vice-president Pence will be taken out as well.  Additional targets could be those in the Cabinet and Congress who are perceived to be destroying basic rights.

Do I hope I’m wrong with this prediction?  Yes, I hope I am wrong.  The segment has not been fun to write, believe me.  But like it or not, what we’ve not seen in the behavior of the president-elect is any indication he understands the gravity of the job as president.  Further, none of his remarks, tweets and other actions indicate a level of maturity, or even intellect, required to be the US president.  A couple of days ago Vice-President Joseph Biden was quoted as telling the president-elect to “grow up.”  Joe, you comment is spot on.  Unfortunately, for the US, and the world, the president-elect seems incapable of growing up.  And aside from that Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?