Discussion of what might have contributed to the revolution. Includes information about current events and some historical events.

#174 Sense Check. On Track for the Revenge Revolution?

16 Wednesday Dec 2015

Posted by Jordan Abel in Causes of the Revolution, Societal Issues

≈ 79 Comments

First-time readers, this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about Revenge Revolution and author, Entry #1. List and general description of entries to date.

Note: most characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations. Profile of characters. You’ll catch on quickly. Thanks for your time and interest…and comments.

Scene: JC, Greenie, and Jordan sitting outside at a restaurant near Jordan’s office. Conversation starts #169.

Greenie: “Jordan, didn’t you start a blog predicting the Revenge Revolution?”

JC: “When did you start the blog, Jordan? Seems like a long time ago.”

Jordan: “The first entry was late fall 2013. I’ve forgotten the exact date. The first time I wrote about a revolution was about 2010 but that paper never was published.”

Greenie: “Did you ever think you might be crazy thinking there would be another revolution? Ever step back and just ask, ‘Am I off in the weeds or does this make sense?'”

Jordan: “As you guys know well, if you read only the information that supports your argument, you start to believe your argument, no matter how whacko. Tried to avoid that and, in fact, published ‘sense checks’ about once a year.”

JC: “Any way to download one now? If you can, I’d like to see the one from 2015 — before the presidential election. There were lots of crazy things going on.”

Jordan: “Here’s the download.”

December 16, 2015

In late 2013 I published the first entry in this blog. Its time for a sense check.

The premise of the blog – the US will experience another revolution sometime after the year 2020 — still seems valid. One needs to be careful about self-evaluation but I believe an objective assessment of the level of negative attitudes among American populous will confirm my belief.

One can argue whether the increase in negative attitudes has been exacerbated by actions of President Obama, the lack of meaningful action by Congress (which rates right along used-car sales people for credibility), the media (whoever ‘they’ are), continued economic erosion of the middle class, increased tension in the Middle East…or any number of other factors. Whatever the cause, the result is clearly a deterioration in public confidence in government and increased hyperbole by various presidential candidates.

None of the aforementioned reasons should be the primary cause for a revolution. However, when combined, the social environment seems ripe for a revolt.

The blog URL includes “US Revolution 5” because by my count there have been four previous revolutions: (i) American Revolution, which finally ended following War of 1812; (ii) Civil War: (iii) Industrial Revolution with migration from the south and farms to industrial cities, primarily in the north; (iv) cultural revolution of the late 1960’s/early 1970’s. The period between each revolution is about 50 years. Whether coincidence or a cycle is hard to determine.

If a cycle, then the next revolution should start sometime between say the years 2020 and 2025. The consequence of this revolution, which I labeled the Revenge Revolution, could be a severe as the US Civil War. Why such a statement?

Economic dislocation is often an underlying cause of a revolution. Whatever one might think the cause, median incomes in the US, when adjusted for inflation, have declined for 15 years. Further, many workers no longer have a defined benefit pension program. Without such a pension, many people face markedly lower standards of living in retirement.

In addition, many Republicans have focused on dismantling the Affordable Care Act. Rather than fix the inevitable problems that occur with new comprehensive legislation, the Republicans have vowed to take away health care support for many Americans.

Such ‘take away’s’ do not bode well with a large percentage of the population that also had their incomes reduced.

Possibly the most important contributor to a revolution comes from analyzing the rationale of supporters of two 2016 presidential candidates – Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. Watching a Trump political rally is like watching some of Hitler’s early speeches. Cruz is more subtle than Trump but the message is also scarier. Of those who have worked closely with Cruz in the past, there are few kind words and most seem to loathe him. Trump, while boisterous and some consider a blowhard, at least has been forced to work with different groups and governments in his real estate business.

Some Republicans might think such statements are over the top. Think what you want but I ask you to listen carefully to the statements and then analyze the crowd reaction. These events are not typical political rallies. The rallies are not football games or baseball games where the outcome has no impact on real life. These political rallies are ‘mind-bending’ events.

Ironically, the most vocal supporters of Trump and Cruz are also the most likely to lead the revolution. One day soon the supporters will awaken and realize that in their frenzy, they have been supporting a politician proposing policies that are contrary to the supporter’s best interest. The Republicans need to remember that ‘Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned.’ Along with the scorn, a very large portion of the Trump/Cruz supporters own firearms. The hyperbole spouted by certain politicians and talk-radio hosts has encouraged the owners of firearms to stock up on ammunition.

Well, enough writing. All seems on track for the 5^th US revolution, the Revenge Revolution. Don’t mean to spoil the holidays but just thought a good time for a sense check.”

JC: “Whadda think Greenie? Was he rational?”

Greenie: “I’m not sure Jordan is ever rational. Seriously, the logic seems ok. I just wish he’d been wrong and there had been no Revenge Revolution.”

Jordan: “I hear you Greenie. The one good thing about the Revenge Revolution – at least the country is changing for the better.”

JC: “I agree. Now, I need to break.”

#173 Observations of Former Speaker of the House

09 Wednesday Dec 2015

Posted by Jordan Abel in Causes of the Revolution, Gov't Policy, Innovative Thinking: Ideas and Products, Societal Issues

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Scene: JC, Greenie, and Jordan sitting outside at a restaurant near Jordan’s office. Conversation starts #169.

Jordan: “Excuse me. I should be back shortly.”

JC: “Wonder where he’s going?”

Greenie: “Relax. It might be an old guy thing. You know…”

JC: “Greenie, turn around slowly and see who Jordan’s talking to.”

Greenie: “That’s the former Speaker of the House. What’s John Boy doing back in D.C.?

JC: “I don’t know but they are headed this way.”

Greenie: “Both of them?”

JC: “Yep. This should be interesting.”

Jordan: “John Boy, I’d like you to meet two long-time friends of mine, Greenie and JC.”

John Boy: “Nice to meet you both. How can two lovely young ladies hang around with an old guy like Jordan?”

JC: “Such a charmer. Very nice to meet you.”

Greenie: “Likewise. Nice to meet you. What brings you back to Washington? Aren’t you living in Ohio now?”

John Boy: “Living in Chillicothe…and loving it.”

JC: “I plead ignorance. Just where is Chillicothe?”

John Boy: “Southern half of Ohio, about midway and about an hour south of Columbus, the home of…Jordan, want to finish the sentence?”

Jordan: “Not on your life. Go Blue!”

Greenie: “OK boys, enough football rivalry. I have a question. Mr. Speaker…”

John Boy: “Greenie, cut the speaker crap. It’s ‘John Boy’, OK?”

Greenie: “OK, John Boy, why did you move back to Ohio? Why not stay in DC – lots of cushy jobs for the taking.”

John Boy: “First and foremost, Chillicothe has not one but two DQ’s. It’s hard to find one Dairy Queen in DC.”

JC: “Seriously, why back to Ohio?”

John Boy: “I grew up in that part of Ohio. The people were nice enough to elect me to Congress for 12 terms to the House. It was a great run. And the people there are real. I just got tired of all the BS in inside the Beltway.”

Jordan: “Don’t you miss the excitement of Congress?”

John Boy: “Congress is much like make-believe land, or at least it was when I was there. Maybe, just maybe, the Revenge Revolution will bring back some reality.”

Greenie: “If you don’t mind me asking, what was your biggest frustration in Congress?”

John Boy: “My party would not face reality. Republicans kept denying the empirical evidence, whether global warming, economic policy or the need for some type of rational gun control.”

Greenie: “Didn’t anyone study the data?”

John Boy: “If they did, it was dismissed out of hand. Plus, anyone who dared cite the data, no matter how credible the source, was branded a heretic.”

JC: “Congressional Republicans have not always been like that, have they?”

John Boy: “When I started in Congress, members actually studied the information before taking a position. I should say most members, not all. You know the old story about ‘Yellow Dog Democrats.'”

JC: “So what happened? When did ideology take over from rational thinking?”

John Boy: “This sounds terrible because I know so many mainstream Republicans like him, but the problem started with Ronald Reagan.”

Greenie: “You mean Reagan’s mantra of ‘Government is the problem, not the solution.’?”

John Boy: “Exactly, he kept saying it over and over and over. And people started ti believe him. I agree government is not always the best solution but its also not the problem all the time. I’d hate to have a private military.”

Greenie: “Anything else?”

John Boy: “Yes. About the same time the NRA started promoting the idea that people had a right to own any type of firearm, no matter how lethal. I mean, who needs a 50 caliber semi-automatic rifle? Have you seen a herd of rogue elephants attacking people in the US lately?”

JC: “What about Democrats? Republicans are not the only ones at fault.”

Greenie: “Is that you talking, JC, or you need to be exorcised?”

John Boy: “Look, Democrats deserve some of the blame. But Democrats got pushed farther left when the Republicans shifted right?”

Jordan: “That’s an interesting observation. Democrats shifted left because Republicans shifted right. Why so? If you were the Democratic Party, why not grab the middle? Seems kike a great way to expand the base.”

John Boy: “My view is Democrats feared that if they grabbed the middle, then a faction of those farther left would splinter and start a 3^rd party.”

Greenie: “And the 3^rd party would erode a good portion of the Democratic base and the old Democratic Party might be left holding an empty bag.”

John Boy: “Politics is no different from marketing a product. Your product…the political party…needs to have a clear positioning statement that people can understand easily.”

Greenie: “You think a positioning of being is the middle, as it were, makes it harder for people to understand what the party’s about. Is that right?”

John Boy: “Look at the Donald in 2015 and 2016. You might have abhorred his statements but his position was clear. Right or wrong, people understood…or at least thought they understood…what he intended to do.”

JC: “You agree with that idea Jordan? You’ve been unusually quiet.”

Jordan: “I agree. The Donald aside, try to think of a highly successful product that does not have a clear positioning statement. You have to stand for something.”

John Boy: “I’ll tell you what else caused the parties to shift, particularly Republicans shifting right.”

Greenie: “Media outlets?”

John Boy: “Starting with talk radio. You and I know that Limbaugh, Hannity and the other talking heads are entertainers…and certainly not scholars. But many…probably most of the listeners actually believe these jokers are credible.”

Greenie: “How can anyone believe the Rush Man? He dropped out of what was the name of that college?”

JC: “…something like Southeast Missouri State Teachers College.”

Greenie: “I think that’s the school. Then he was convicted of dealing drugs.”

John Boy: “Plea bargain, please. But all those facts don’t matter to his listeners. To them, whatever Rush says must be true.”

Greenie: “Your constituents believe him?”

John Boy: “Many did…but far fewer after the Revenge Revolution. Like a lot of people in the US, they’re beginning to demand that elected officials in this country start acting like adults and not whiny little children.”

Jordan: “By the way, John Boy, forgot to ask what brings you to town?”

John Boy: “We’re visiting my granddaughter, who’s a student at Georgetown.”

Jordan: “She’s not at the Ohio State University? Smart kid.”

John Boy: “Her choice, not mine. And, thanks for reminding me. I need to run. She and my supervisor went shopping and they are probably back by now.”

Jordan: “John Boy, nice to see you. Thanks for spending a few minutes with us.”

John Boy: “I enjoyed it. JC, Greenie – very nice to meet you. And stay away from Jordan, OK?”

JC and Greenie (in unison): “We’ll try.”

Greenie: “Interesting guy. Some insightful observations.”

JC: “Agreed. I really enjoyed it. And I’ll enjoy a break as well.”

#167 Racism, Discrimination, Diversity Aren’t Relevant. Look in the Mirror.

31 Saturday Oct 2015

Posted by Jordan Abel in Causes of the Revolution, Education Issues, Societal Issues

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Scene: coffee shop near Jordan’s office. Matt, a reporter for a major newspaper, had interviewed Jordan for an earlier series of articles. Jordan and Matt having a conversation about Matt’s upcoming book, the causes of the Revenge Revolution. This general conversation starts Entry #165.

Matt: “Early on in the conversation you said there were three major factors contributing to the Revenge Revolution. We’ve talked about two – policies of the so-called Republican Taliban and the unintended consequence of the NRA opposition to any gun control measures. The third was…”

Jordan: “…a perceived lack of commitment by the black community to improve.”

Matt: “That comment seems cruel.”

Jordan: “There are always multiple issues leading to a revolution. One can argue whether these three are the most important but I think the issues had a major influence.”

Matt: “Talk more about why you think there was, maybe still is, a lack of commitment to improve by the black community. Seems so controversial.”

Jordan: “The statement probably is controversial, at least to a lot of people. To me the statement is the elephant in the room that people, especially politicians and the black community, don’t want to address.”

Matt: “How did you support your conclusion?”

Jordan: “There was no preconceived conclusion so I had nothing to support. Reaching a conclusion…or at least trying to reach a conclusion was intentional but there was no preconceived notion about what the conclusion would be.”

Matt: “You think you were objective in the analysis? I mean, reaching a conclusion about a segment of society seems like…you know, seems like pushing the envelope of objectivity.”

Jordan: “To me the analysis was straightforward.”

Matt: “Let’s not do it today but sometime soon I would really appreciate understanding your approach to problem solving.”

Jordan: “Glad to share the methodology with you. There’s no magic to it, really.”

Matt: “OK. Understanding your approach will be helpful for me. Apologies for the sidebar. Back to the topic at hand.”

Jordan: “The first question I asked myself was simple. ‘After 150+ years since the Emancipation Proclamation, why are blacks still at the bottom rung of the economic ladder?'”

Matt: “Many people will claim the reason is discrimination, racism, profiling…and stuff like that. And some claim the culture in the native land is different from the US.”

Jordan: “Here’s the fallacy in those arguments. Every ethnic group in this country has faced the same issues.”

Matt: “But has the discrimination been as severe as it has been for blacks?”

Jordan: “When people claim other groups haven’t suffered as much, I show them some pictures. I carry one on my phone just to make a point.”

Matt: “Mmmm. Sign says ‘No dogs, no blacks and no Irish.'”

Jordan: “And you can find similar examples for every other ethnic group, whether in the US, in England…you pick the country.”

Matt: “So then I take it you asked “Why have the other ethnic groups progressed while blacks have stayed at the bottom?’ Right?”

Jordan: “Exactly. The focus was trying to understand why.”

Matt: “Did you conclude why society stopped discriminating against other groups?”

Jordan: “Society has not stopped discriminating against other groups. Whenever…I should say almost always…a group in the minority is discriminated against.”

Matt: “Never thought about discrimination quite like that. I see your point. In a community of mostly blacks, I might be discriminated against.”

Jordan: “I’m not claiming the discrimination is always intentional. But discrimination happens.”

Matt: “Such as you going to a conference and the lunch options are a pulled pork BBQ sandwich and Caesar salad with bacon chips in the dressing.”

Jordan: “You’d think that would not happen at conferences but it does.”

Matt: “So what do you do?”

Jordan: “Smile and figure out what I can eat and move on. I might send a note to the event coordinator as a reminder. I understand most of these incidents are unintentional or out of ignorance.”

Matt: “Do you think a diversity or sensitivity program would help?”

Jordan: “Probably. But diversity is not a critical factor in making the kind of change we’re talking about.”

Matt: “Why not? Many school systems have diversity programs.”

Jordan: “True. Diversity programs in local schools also have drawbacks. My view is pushing diversity programs in schools hurts rather than helps the black community.”

Matt: “Why?”

Jordan: “Diversity programs require moving kids from one school to a different school. If the local school were diverse there would be no need to transport the kids.”

Matt: “And moving means busing.”

Jordan: “Busing means kids have less time to study, less time to play, less time for after-school programs…and irony of all ironies, all the interaction of kids on the bus is with kids who are ‘not diverse’, which is the exact opposite of what the program is designed to accomplish.”

Matt: “Does anyone ever think about what you just described?”

Jordan: “Either not in depth, or if they have thought about, they don’t talk about it because it’s not politically correct.”

Matt: “See what you mean.”

Jordan: “What’s even less PC is calculating how many parents who focus on their kid’s education pull the kids out of public school.”

Matt: “Is there any value in busing?”

Jordan: “Some aspects are probably positive. But the negatives seem to far outweigh the positives. And who knows the true cost to taxpayers.”

Matt: “Listen, I need more coffee. Tell me you conclusion so I can think about it over the break.”

Jordan: “OK. The black community needs to look in the mirror and begin taking personal responsibility for their kids education. Every other ethnic group has educated their children as a way of getting off the bottom rung.”

Matt: “What about the effects of slavery?”

Jordan: “Slavery is an excuse and not an inhibitor to taking personal responsibility. Let’s go get a refill.”

#166 NRA Contribution to the Revenge Revolution

24 Saturday Oct 2015

Posted by Jordan Abel in Causes of the Revolution, Societal Issues

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Scene: coffee shop near Jordan’s office. Matt, a reporter for a major newspaper, had interviewed Jordan for an earlier series of articles. Jordan and Matt finished a side conversation about VW and returned to a conversation about Matt’s upcoming book.

Matt: “Tell me why you think the NRA contributed to the Revenge Revolution.”

Jordan: “I don’t think it was a conscious effort. Really an unintended consequence.”

Matt: “OK, help me understand your logic.”

Jordan: “The logic is simple. The NRA became power-hungry and tossed rational thinking to the wind.”

Matt: “In what way?”

Jordan: “At one time the NRA supported gun-control legislation. Actually the NRA helped write gun-control legislation.”

Matt: “Really? I didn’t know that. What changed?”

Jordan: “The NRA would like you not to know they supported gun control. But what changed is adoption of Ronald Reagan’s mantra of ‘Government is the problem, not the solution.'”

Matt: “So the change happened late 1970’s, early 1980’s?”

Jordan: “A palace coup at the NRA. Emphasis by the new leadership changed from responsible gun ownership to any weapon you want because the government is going to take your gun away.”

Matt: “Isn’t that description a bit harsh? What about the ownership rights under the 2^nd Amendment?”

Jordan: “What about the rights? For 100 years the NRA interprets the 2^nd Amendment one way. Then the new leadership decides to reinterpret the Constitution because they think the previous interpretation is too liberal.”

Matt: “I suppose one can argue why the NRA changed interpretation but how did the NRA contribute to the Revenge Revolution?”

Jordan: “Under new leadership the NRA resisted any effort to restrict gun ownership, any effort to have effective background checks and any effort to have registration of firearms.”

Matt: “The 2^nd Amendment says people should have a right to own firearms.”

Jordan: “Most everyone agrees with that statement.”

Matt: “Then what is the issue with ownership?”

Jordan: “The type of firearms. No one needs a 50-caliber rifle.”

Matt: “Maybe there’s a herd of wild elephants about to attack.”

Jordan: “I know you’re trying to be funny. But have you ever fired a 50-caliber rifle? Ever fired even an M-16 in semi-automatic mode?”

Matt: “No. What’s it like? You were in the military, right?”

Jordan: “Yes. Trust me, firing these weapons is not like a video game. The most polite term I can think of is ‘scary.’ Really scary. You’d be shocked at the destruction just one of these weapons can cause.”

Matt: “But, as you said, the military has these weapons.”

Jordan: “The military has these weapons for a single purpose. To blow the crap out of everything in its way. These weapons are not toys. The weapons are designed for one purpose – destroy. These are not ‘sporting arms’ for fun and games. The weapons are meant to destroy – things and people.”

Matt: “Are you saying by allowing so many people to have these kind of weapons, the NRA gave the upper hand to those who started the Revenge Revolution?”

Jordan: “Think about who started the Revenge Revolution. It wasn’t the upper 1%. It wasn’t the upper 10% or even the upper 50%. The Revolution was started by those who worked hard but whose real income had declined for many years. Lots of those people had voted Republican.”

Matt: “Then they realized how much they had been shafted.”

Jordan: “And guess who had most of the firearms?”

Matt: “What about the police…and even the military? They have all these weapons.”

Jordan: “True. But they don’t have the manpower. Once the Revolution started, it spread quickly.”

Matt: “The benefits and bane of social media.”

Jordan: “Really no way to stop it. And the role of the police and military is not to kill a bunch of people just because there is some political upheaval.”

Matt: “Plus, there were too many outbreaks in too many locations to control.”

Jordan: “The question then is ‘Would the Revenge Revolution have been different without all the heavy-duty firearms in citizens’ hands?'”

Matt: “Your take is what?”

Jordan: “I think the Revenge Revolution would have happened anyway. My point was the NRA was a contributing factor, not the sole cause. The Revolution might have taken longer and the reforms not as pronounced but there still would have been a Revenge Revolution.”

Matt: “Shortly after the Revolution, there was an election and a revamped Congress. Congress then passes gun control legislation.”

Jordan: “Passes legislation with little resistance from gun owners. Why? Because I think the gun owners saw how close the country came to a bloody revolt. Almost another Civil War but with really nasty firearms. And the gun owners also realized what folly the NRA had been promoting.”

Matt: “How ironic for the NRA. The group the NRA relied on for support came back to bite it.”

Jordan: “Let’s take a break.”

#165 Republican Taliban

17 Saturday Oct 2015

Posted by Jordan Abel in Causes of the Revolution, Gov't Policy, Possible Solutions, Societal Issues

≈ 2 Comments

First-time readers, this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about Revenge Revolution and the author, Entry #1. List and general description of entries to date.

Scene: coffee shop near office. Jordan meets Matt, a reporter for a major newspaper. Matt interviewed Jordan for an earlier series of articles. Jordan and Matt have finished side conversation about VW. Returning to conversation about Matt’s upcoming book.

Jordan: “Alright, Matt. Let’s talk about your book. What’s the title?”

Matt: “No title yet but the theme is whether the behavior of fundamentalists contributed to the Revenge Revolution in the US.”

Jordan: “You mean fundamentalists like we consider the Taliban to be fundamentalists?”

Matt: “Yes, but the groups I’m focusing on are in the US, so really no Taliban.”

Jordan: “What about Republican fundamentalists who refused to compromise and govern. Would they qualify?”

Matt: “If you think so. What I’m looking for is individual’s opinion on what groups and/or events they consider precipitated the Revenge Revolution.”

Jordan: “As you know, revolutions don’t just happen. Over time the populous gets frustrated and angry about a series of events.”

Matt: “Then one day, an event – even a seemingly small event – puts them over the top and voila, a revolution.”

Jordan: “I tell you what would help me – picking a point in time where events really began to change my thinking.”

Matt: “When I talk to people about such events, most mention 2015 as a tipping point. A tipping point not for the revolution but for them beginning to think differently.”

Jordan: “Any particular event in 2015 mentioned more frequently?”

Matt: “No. People just remember the year when they scratched their head and asked, ‘What is this or that group doing?”

Jordan: “I agree. 2015 was a year of childish actions by some people who should have been acting like adults. Nothing catastrophic like a president being assassinated. Just a lot of events that really started to gnaw at me.”

Matt: “OK. What events are on your list?”

Jordan: “Three come to mind right away. #1 the so-called conservative Republicans forcing out John Boehner as Speaker of the House, and then having no plans to govern. #2 Refusal by the NRA and many of the same Republicans to consider some type of gun regulation, even after a number of mass killings. #3, which didn’t get much publicity but an example of people not taking responsibility. The gathering in Washington of blacks to mark the 2Oth anniversary of the Million Man March.”

Matt: “I’d like to hear more about each one. Take them in order.”

Jordan: “The behavior of the Republicans…more like Republicants or even Republirants…baffles me and apparently many other people.”

Matt: “I think I know but what behavior was so troubling?”

Jordan: “Refusal to listen to, let alone accept, another opinion. From the perspective of those Republicants, there’s one view of the world – theirs.”

Matt: “Just like the Taliban?”

Jordan: “A good name for the group is the Taliban Republicans.”

Matt: “I’m certain they would prefer the label conservative Republicans.”

Jordan: “Probably so but the group is anything but conservative. Despite claims to the contrary, Republicans’ fiscal policies have increased the national debt significantly. Reagan and Bush 43 added far more to the national debt than Clinton and much more than Obama, despite Obamacare and bailing out the banks. Plus, the republicans absolutely opposed any effort to reduce carbon footprint. ”

Matt: “Aren’t most of the members religious conservatives – fundamentalist Christians?”

Jordan: “Guess that group forgot to read the Bible. There are repeated references and mitzvot – commandments – to save the earth.”

Matt: “What else about the Taliban Republicans?”

Jordan: “Refusal to govern. At least the real Taliban makes an attempt to govern. The Taliban Republicans seemed to have forgotten, they were elected to run the country, not shut it down. The US population is 350+ million. Not everyone thinks the same way.”

Matt: “But the Taliban Republicans…I guess I shouldn’t use that term…believe the majority of people who elected them support their Taliban-like behavior.”

Jordan: “That might be true for some districts. And you asked what I thought caused the Revenge Revolution. Well, a major contributor is people who act and think that their way is the only right way. No consideration for a different views and no compromising because compromising would tarnish their principles. Just like the Taliban.”

Matt: “You mentioned forcing out John Boehner as a key event. Why?”

Jordan: “The Taliban Republicans focused on forcing him out with no plan to govern afterwards. It is one thing to disagree. But if you disagree you need an alternative solution. Anyone who’s run an organization knows practical alternatives are critical…and one needs to be willing to work with others to develop alternatives. Just saying no is not a realistic solution.”

Matt: “Why do you think the Taliban Republicans didn’t propose some practical alternatives…or at least be willing to compromise?”

Jordan: “Really want to know why?”

Matt: “Yes, please.”

Jordan: “Because virtually all of them, maybe all of them, are lawyers. And for many lawyers, events involving people who have a different view are a zero-sum game – a winner and a loser. Most lawyers have never run organizations where you have to compromise. You just can’t walk out of a courtroom and say gee, lost that one. When you run an organization, all involved live with the decision.”

Matt: “But aren’t most members of Congress lawyers?”

Jordan: “Yes. And listen to members of Congress who’ve been around a while. Those members talk about when a light bulb when on in their head. They started to get things done when they learned the art of compromising.”

Matt: “Compromise is a word not in the lexicon of Taliban Republicans.”

Jordan: “That’s my point. Let’s take a break, then address the other examples.”

#153 What Is Education and How Should We Measure?

19 Wednesday Aug 2015

Posted by Jordan Abel in Causes of the Revolution, Education Issues

≈ 9 Comments

For first-time readers, this blog is set in the future (sometime after 2020). This entry assumes the Revenge Revolution has occurred. For more information about the anticipated 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution — and more background about the author, Entry #1. One another note: almost all characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations. You’ll catch on quickly. Thanks for your time and interest…and comments.

Scene: Jordan and JC, a long-time friend (and frequent character) are having dinner. Time of year – just about when school starts.

JC: “Here’s a toast to an enjoyable evening.”

Jordan: “Hear, hear. Nice to see you, JC.”

JC: “Nice to see you, Jordan. I’d ask what you’ve been up to but Greenie filled me in the other day.” (See Entry #151)

Jordan: “She and I had a fun time talking taxes.”

JC: “She enjoyed it. Now here’s my topic for the evening – what is education?”

Jordan: “You should know. You were a better student than I was…plus you taught middle school for a while.”

JC: “Well, you taught also…and at some big-name university.”

Jordan: “OK, so what’s the issue with education?”

JC: “The issue is the education system seems to be focused on the wrong measure.”

Jordan: “Whadda mean, wrong measure?”

JC: “Einstein said it best. ‘Education is not learning of facts. It’s rather the training of the mind to think.'”

Jordan: “Great way to frame education.”

JC: “Think about your own education. Did you memorize a bunch of facts for some test? Or did you get trained how to think?”

Jordan: “You need to know certain facts and rules, especially in math, science and any language.”

JC: “Agreed, but the key is how do you use those facts to solve problems?”

Jordan: “You know what teacher I think of who made us learn some facts and then taught us how to think?”

JC: “Our mutual math teacher, Miss ‘What?'”

Jordan: “She’d grind you down with her ‘what?’ questions. Then one day you understood and started to think.”

JC: “You were much better at math than I was but she was one of the best teachers I ever had, from grammar school to grad school.”

Jordan: “I wonder how she would be rated today.”

JC: “Probably get points off because she was so demanding…at least in our group.”

Jordan: “What other teachers come to mind?”

JC: “Remember Frances…”

Jordan: “…English?”

JC: “Yes. She was right up there with Miss ‘What?’.”

Jordan: “What do you remember most about her English class?”

JC: “Diagramming sentences. Some of those sentences were incredibly difficult to diagram properly.”

Jordan: “I hope you didn’t split any infinitives or leave your participle dangling.”

JC: “You need to worry about your participle dangling, I don’t.”

Jordan: “Funny, JC. Seriously, though, you learned the basic rules then applied them to the problem at hand, just like Einstein said.”

JC: “OK, we agree we got a good education…”

Jordan: “…in public schools.”

JC: “Yes, public schools. But how do we translate that experience to today?”

Jordan: “The first step is to attract more qualified teachers.”

JC: “Easier said than done. More pay?”

Jordan: “Yes, a lot more pay. Probably at least 50% more pay, maybe even double salaries.”

JC: “Wow that will cost a lot.”

Jordan: “Equally important to pay is showing respect. We…societal we…need to make teaching a highly respected profession, again. I said again because at one time it was.”

JC: “Good idea, but who is going to pay for all this?”

Jordan: “The current system is very expensive. It’s just that the cost is located in different buckets.”

JC: “I don’t follow you.”

Jordan: “An inferior education system…”

JC: “Excuse me Jordan, you think our system is inferior?”

Jordan: “Yes and getting worse every year. An inferior education system adds direct costs for lower worker productivity, which makes US business less competitive worldwide. The lower wages then reduce taxes paid by individuals. But a major indirect cost is additional crime. The cost to incarcerate a person for one year is the same as tuition at a major university. I know people get all exorcised about the idea but I would rather pay someone to go to college than have them sit in prison and not be productive.”

JC: “No one wants to talk about the indirect costs. Politicians claim it is confusing for voters.”

Jordan: “Well, many of those politicians got voted out of office after the Revenge Revolution. Maybe it’s time to take a new approach to discussing problems — frankness and honesty”

JC: “You know what politician comes to mind – at least for the frankness part.”

Jordan: “The Donald?”

Jordan: “He’s not my ideal role model but I have to give him credit. He changed the dynamic of running for president.”

Jordan: “Let’s not forget Bernie Sanders. He wasn’t as bombastic as the Donald but he got issues out on the table.”

JC: “Alright, we need an honest discussion about the value of teachers…and about the cost of not getting better teachers. Where do we start?”

Jordan: “Remember how we began to measure the appropriateness of policies for government and business?”

JC: “You mean, ‘treat thy neighbor as thyself?’ You want to apply that standard to teachers?”

Jordan: “Why not? Seems simple and straightforward. Ask parents, grandparents, families, business leaders, other educators what they want from a teacher?”

JC: “And I’ll bet its more than teaching kids to memorize facts for a test. They’ll want the teacher to teach the kid to think.”

Jordan: “Seems like a simple way to start measuring what we should do.”

JC: “Speaking of measuring. A critical storage tank of mine is full. Let’s take a break for a couple of minutes.”

#152 Real Tax Burden (Part 2 of 2)

15 Saturday Aug 2015

Posted by Jordan Abel in Causes of the Revolution, Economics, Gov't Policy, Societal Issues

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Scene: Jordan and Greenie, a friend who went to the same grammar school, having coffee. Greenie asked Jordan to explain the tax burden on individuals…in simple terms. Jordan just asked Greenie to guess at the total tax burden as percent of income by quintile. Conversation starts #151.

Greenie: “OK, so how’d I do? Was I close?”

Jordan: “Very good. Here’s a chart I pulled up while you were guessing.”

(http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2012/09/19/heres-why-the-47-percent-argument-is-an-abuse-of-tax-data)

Greenie: “Could you please explain this chart to me?

Jordan: “Why don’t you explain it to me?”

Greenie: “OK, the left bar is labeled 0-20, which I take means the 20% of people with the lowest income – the first quintile.”

Jordan: “Correct.”

Greenie: “That group – the 0-20% group – pays about 17.5% of their total income in some form of tax. We don’t know if its income tax, or sales tax…or whatever the tax…just that about 17.5% goes for taxes.”

Jordan: “What’s next?”

Greenie: “The tax burden for the next three groups, or quintiles – 20-40%, 40-60%, 60-80%, increases gradually to what about 27-28% for the 60-80% group.”

Jordan: “What about the highest income group?”

Greenie: “Seems to hover around 30%. And look, for the top 1%, it starts to fall off. Did I read the chart correctly?”

Jordan: “Like a pro.”

Greenie: “My guesses were pretty close. OK, so maybe I got lucky. But all I did was think about it logically. I know income taxes are progressive but almost all other taxes are flat or regressive, so the tax burden is more even than a lot of people think.”

Jordan: “Because most people only talk about income taxes and not total taxes. Besides, you used a phrase that seems to be overlooked in DC – ‘think about it logically.'”

Greenie: “There’s still no logical thinking…even after the Revenge Revolution?”

Jordan: “You tell me. Republicans are still promoting a flat tax. A flat tax would make the share of taxes go down by income quintile. Do Republicans think voters don’t understand what a flat tax does?

Greenie: “I’d be a little more diplomatic. I’d ask how long before lower and middle-income voters realize how Republicans are trying to screw them…again.”

Jordan: “You call that statement more diplomatic? Anyway, some Republicans have forgotten…or hope voters have forgotten…what proposals pushed ordinary people over the edge and started the Revenge Revolution.”

Greenie: “You spend a lot of time inside the beltway. Do you have any insight into how Republicans think? That’s assuming they really think.”

Jordan: “Be nice.”

Greenie: “Alright…but just for a little while.”

Jordan: “A few days ago I was invited to play golf with the former Speaker of the House and the former Senate Majority Leader.”

Greenie: “Fun day, huh? Who did you offend? Sorry.”

Jordan: “It was an interesting day. We had some frank discussions about the Republican Party and why they lost their base during the Revenge Revolution.”

Greenie: “Did they listen? I suppose they want to get their old jobs back.”

Jordan: “Yes, I think so.”

Greenie: “Can you tell me anything else?”

Jordan: “Not really. Promised I would keep the conversation very quiet. I can tell you to give these guys some time to get their act together and then start to turn around the Republican Party.”

Greenie: “You mean Republicans might become rational again…and not so far off in the weeds?”

Jordan: “No guarantee, but they just might.”

Greenie: “There is hope after all.”

#150 Republicans Surprised by Revolution (Part 2 of 2)

08 Saturday Aug 2015

Posted by Jordan Abel in Causes of the Revolution, Gov't Policy, Societal Issues

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Scene: Congressional Country Club. Jordan was invited to play golf with former Speaker of the House and Senate Majority Leader. Continuation of Entry #149.

John Boy: “OK, we’ve played nine holes…and no more OB’s. I hate being out-of-bounds. Let’s talk some more.”

Mackey: “Jordan, you implied you weren’t surprised by the Revenge Revolution? Tell me the truth.”

Jordan: “You know I always tell you what I think is the truth…and not some mumbo jumbo based on some ideology.”

John Boy: “We know. That’s why we called you. Were you surprised by the Revenge Revolution?”

Jordan: “Truthfully, no. Signs of the revolution were evident for a long time.”

Mackey: “Long time? How long? Are you the Great Carnac or some psychic?”

John Boy: “When did you first think about the possibility of a revolution?”

Jordan: “The idea start kicking around in my head. Then I decided to start putting ideas on paper.”

Mackey: “When was that?”

Jordan: “Mid-2013.”

Mackey: “You’re kidding, mid-2013.”

Jordan: “I started a blog later in 2013. The blog was more of a sense check for me about the idea of a revolution.”

John Boy: “Did you promote the blog?”

Jordan: “Not really. I told some people about the blog but, like I said, I wrote it for my own edification.”

John Boy: “Alright, you start the blog some later in 2013. When did the idea of a revolution migrate from maybe, coulda’, sorta’ to more likely? Most people really don’t look at situations like you do.”

Mackey: “Right. When do you think John Boy and I should have started to smell the problem?”

Jordan: “By mid-2015, there were lots of signs.”

John Boy: “Tell me one.”

Jordan: “The most obvious was when Trump entered the race to become the Republican presidential nominee…and then shot to the top of the polls among Republicans.”

John Boy: “I still don’t understand how Trump became the leading candidate. What was his appeal?”

Jordan: “Trump epitomized everything the Republicans had been promoting. Except he didn’t have a muzzle on his mouth or care about pleasing large donors.”

John Boy: “He was bad for Republicans.”

Jordan: “You say he was bad but think about what the Donald said. On almost every issue, he just blurted out the unvarnished version of what many Republicans had said for years.”

John Boy: “Unfortunately, you’re right. The Donald didn’t sugarcoat anything. He was raw, unedited footage.”

Jordan: “Reminded me of how we used to talk at the fraternity house…but without all the expletives.”

Mackey: “The liberal media had a field day, manipulating a lot of what Trump said.”

Jordan: “C’mon Mackey. Trump was an expert at self-promotion. If anything he manipulated the media, not the other way around.”

John Boy: “Alright, the Donald lays bare what the Republicans had been promoting for years…but much more subtly, of course. So what’s new about that?”

Jordan: “The Republican majority at the time…”

Mackey: “…and we were in charge then…”

Jordan: “…the Republican majority begins to realize the ideas were contrary to their best interests. Without the sugar-coating, the real positions become clear. But the Donald wasn’t the real problem. The Donald was a symptom, not the cause.”

John Boy: “You mean like Republicans promoting tax cuts for the wealthy, trying to kill Obamacare, trying to kill Medicare and Social Security. You think that was the problem?”

Jordan: “Exactly what I mean. The Republican base started to realize the Republican Party did not have their best interest in mind.”

John Boy: “It took a while for the base to wake up to the real intent of the Republican agenda…and that the effects of many Republican programs were really ‘take-aways’ and not benefits for most of the people.”

Jordan: “With one more fatal flaw. The Republican position on gun control. You’ve got an armed camp that’s not happy and very hungry.”

Mackey: “You know, John Boy, we forgot the adage about keeping the voters’ stomachs full. You can get away with a lot of things when people have full stomachs.”

John Boy: “Republicans got more concerned about satisfying rich donors…Koch brothers, Adleson and some others…than we did about doing the right thing.”

Mackey: “So, over the years we arm a bunch of people, then start to take away from them income, healthcare and retirement benefits. And we wonder why they got upset?”

John Boy: “Any other insights, Jordan?”

Jordan: “Not now. I think you answered your own question about why the Republican base became part of the Revenge Revolution.”

John Boy: “Unfortunately, yes. And it seems so simple to understand. How did we miss it?”

Jordan: “Now, how ’bout $2 Nassau on the back nine?”

Mackey: “I can’t concentrate. I’m frustrated. All the signs of the Revenge Revolution were there…and we, Republican we, did nothing to change our behavior.”

John Boy: “Well at least we’ve admitted our mistake. Mackey, I think it’s time we repented publicly.”

Mackey: “You’re on the tee box, Jordan.”

#149 Republicans Surprised by the Revenge Revolution (1 of 2)

05 Wednesday Aug 2015

Posted by Jordan Abel in Causes of the Revolution, Gov't Policy, Societal Issues

≈ 1 Comment

For first-time readers, this blog is set in the future (sometime after 2020). This entry assumes the Revenge Revolution has occurred. For more information about the anticipated 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution — and more background about the author, Entry #1. One another note: almost all characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations. You’ll catch on quickly. Thanks for your time and interest…and comments.

Scene: Jordan’s office in Washington, DC.

Gelly: “Jordan, the Speaker of the House is on the phone. Line 2.”

Jordan: “The Speaker or former Speaker?”

Gelly: “Former Speaker. I keep forgetting he’s now Minority leader.”

Jordan: “He’d like to forget, too.” (Picks up phone.) “Hello John Boy. To what do I owe this honor?”

John Boy: “Morning, Jordan. The honor is you are one of the few people in Washington who can keep their mouth shut.”

Jordan: “I’ll take that as a compliment.”

John Boy: “So intended. Need a favor…a very discreet favor.”

Jordan: “How many I help you?”

John Boy: “I need you to accidentally run into Mackey and me at Congressional Country Club.”

Jordan: “Tell me more.”

John Boy: “Nine o’clock tee time tomorrow morning if you can make it.”

Jordan: “I’ll be there. What’s the topic? Do I need to prepare?”

John Boy: “I’ll tell you when you get there. Check in at the Pro Shop first…and remember to take your clubs.”

(Next morning at Congressional CC Pro Shop.) Head Pro: “Mr. Abel, you’re all set to go. Your party is on the putting green. Enjoy the round.”

Jordan: “Thanks.” (Putting green.) “Morning, John Boy.”

John Boy: “Morning, Jordan. Have a game today?”

Jordan: “Need a fourth?”

John Boy: “You’re the third. Mackey and I are playing. We’d love to have you join us. There will be no 4^th.”

Jordan: “I’d be delighted. Do I have time to hit some balls?”

John Boy: “We tee off in about 30 minutes. We can leave earlier if we want.”

(After hitting balls on the driving range.)

Jordan: “OK, I’m ready. Morning, Mackey.”

Mackey: “Morning, Jordan. Nice to see you. Ready for some golf?”

Jordan: “Do we have a game today?”

John Boy: “Not for the front nine anyway. We need to pick your brain. I got a 4-bag cart and a caddy to drive and stay out-of-the-way. We can walk and talk in private.”

(First tee box.)

Jordan: “OK, what’s the topic? And why all the deception about me accidentally stumbling on you guys here?”

Mackey: “Too many eyes and ears…and hidden mikes around. You played along well, by the way.”

Jordan: “So what’s the question?”

Mackey: “Simple. Republican leadership…in fact most high-end Republicans…were caught off guard by the Revenge Revolution. What really surprised us what the widespread use of firearms among many of the Southern Republicans.”

John Boy: “You mean former Republicans. What happened?

Jordan: “Simple.”

John Boy: “Simple. The folks that rebelled should have been grateful.”

Jordan: “Grateful for what?”

Mackey: “We supported causes that we good for them. Like the rights under the 2^nd Amendment to buy and own all kinds guns – even a 50 caliber semiautomatic.”

John Boy: “Let’s just think about what Jordan asked us. He asked why these people were not more grateful. What did we do for them, aside from the 2^nd Amendment stuff?”

Mackey: “We fought for tax cuts, especially the top end rates and on capital gains. We fought Obamacare and fought to eliminate those socialists programs Medicare and Medicaid.”

John Boy: “And then we fought to have more school vouchers for private schools, fought against a higher minimum wage…and fought a bunch of other stuff.”

Mackey: “These guys should have been grateful. But then they turn on us. I don’t get it.”

Jordan: “You’re forgetting one key point, in fact the key point.”

John Boy: “Quit the obfuscation, Jordan and get to the point. What did we supposedly forget?”

Jordan: “To fill their bellies.”

Mackey: “Fill their bellies?”

Jordan: “You created little monsters with guns who were hungry and say no way to get fed…except by revolting. Even the old white guys were frustrated and revolted.”

John Boy: “I need to think about that comment. Let’s play some golf.”

Mackey: “John Boy, you need to hit a provisional. I think you’re drive is out-of-bounds.”

Ebook format of recent series of entries on Federal Budget. 15 05 23 Do They Really Understand Entries #121-#130

#148 European Economic Amnesia (Part 3 of 3)

01 Saturday Aug 2015

Posted by Jordan Abel in Causes of the Revolution, Economics, Gov't Policy, Societal Issues

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Scene: Jordan and former colleague, whose views lean far right, are at dinner. Conversation started Entry 146. (More about author and the general content of the Blog, Entry #1.)

Jordan: “Wow, this is a great dessert. We should skip the entrée and go straight for dessert.”

Steve: “Not a chance. We’ve spent too much time training the staff on how to customize the salad.”

Jordan: “Alright, back to the topic at hand.”

Steve: “You agreed that government and households could have the same economic behavior…but then said the timing for the behavior was 180 degrees apart. Tell me why.”

Jordan: “Use Greece as an example. Germany clamped down on spending by the Greek government.”

Steve: “As they should have. Spending was out of control.”

Jordan: “Hold on. Think about the restrictions that were forced on Greece. Banking. No withdrawals…well, very limited withdrawals.”

Steve: “So, why is that a problem?”

Jordan: “Where was the money going to come from to help grow the economy? People had no money. Even if they have savings, they could not access the account because of the banking restrictions. Businesses that exported could not buy goods from other countries so their export business dried up…and Greece needed foreign currency.”

Steve: “So government can’t spend any more because they were to pay down the debt. I’m beginning to see the box they were in. There’s no money and no way to start the economy.”

Jordan: “You’ve got it. Not so hard to understand, is it?”

Steve: “But no one…and I mean not one of the people I listen to or read has put the situation in such understandable terms. Why?”

Jordan: “You’re a good example why we all need to get news from multiple sources. Why haven’t your sources explained it? Ideology and politics. Lots of credible economists have made the point that someone has to spend for the economy to grow.”

Steve: “What you said earlier. Your spending is my income, right? As much as it troubles me to say this, I see why government has to spend more in a recession…and especially a depression. This really pains me but I even understand the extra spending might increase the deficit.”

Jordan: “I’m loving this conversation.”

Steve: “Don’t slobber all over yourself yet. What about savings? You said the government should act like a household. When does the government save?”

Jordan: “When the economy is stronger. If the economy is in a growth mode…and has been for a while…it’s OK to raise taxes a bit and start to pay down the deficit.”

Steve: “I knew there was a trick. Raising taxes. We need to cut taxes…except for Greece, where they needed to raise taxes. Those slackards weren’t paying.”

Jordan: “Ok, what side do you want to take? Raise taxes and lower the deficit or…”

Steve: “Cut taxes and lower the deficit. That’s the only fair way.”

Jordan: “What Kool-Aid have you been drinking? Or maybe just too much wine.”

Steve: “You better hope it’s not the wine. I’m driving, remember? What’s wrong with lower taxes and reducing the deficit? That’s good economic policy.”

Jordan: “The math just doesn’t work is what’s wrong. Voodoo economics.”

Steve: “The tax rate is too high. It’s a disincentive to work.”

Jordan: “I admit that at some point the tax rate becomes a disincentive.”

Steve: “I knew I was right.”

Jordan: “A maximum marginal tax rate of say 50% or more might be a disincentive to the very wealthy. A maximum rate of 75% would expand the field. But I’m talking about a marginal rate of much less than 50%.”

Steve: “Your argument is weak. We need a tax cut.”

Jordan: “We’ve gotten somewhat sidetracked. But I want you to do one thing. Find some empirical evidence where a significant cut to a reasonable maximum marginal tax rate reduced the deficit.”

Steve: “That’s not a fair request.”

Jordan: “You’re right. It’s not a fair request.”

Steve: “See another trick.”

Jordan: “No trick. But the request is not fair because you cannot find any credible data. You need to put your political ideology aside and solve the problem.”

Steve: “Are you saying there is only one solution…yours or whoever you believe in?”

Jordan: “What I’m saying is if you want to solve an economic problem – Greece, for example – you need to understand what drives the economy.”

Steve: “And you think it’s not just politics.”

Jordan: “It’s the same problem you face when trying to find oil and gas reserves. You need to understand what rocks and what formations are most likely to hold oil and gas.”

Steve: “You meaning wishing for oil and gas won’t do?”

Jordan: “I’m glad you haven’t lost your sense of humor. No wishing won’t do. No Great Carnac, whether exploring for oil or fixing the economy.”

Steve: “Back to Greece. Why do you think Germany…I mean the EC…put such harsh restrictions on Greece? Didn’t they understand what was likely to happen?”

Jordan: “You were right when you said Germany. Greece was not acting the way Mother Merkel thought Greece should act. You must behave like mother says. Down two, over four. Be good and Mother Merkel will give you a little treat.”

Jordan: “But the kid said, ‘You know what Mother Merkel? I’m not like you.”

Steve: “And then the people of Greece told Mother Merkel to shove it and started a revolution. You think the revolution in Greece motivated the Revenge Revolution in the US?”

Jordan: “The revolution in Greece certainly opened eyes, especially to the younger crowd. But I think the US was headed for a revolution anyway.”

Steve: “Without Greece? Why’s that?”

Jordan: “People in the US were faced with the same underlying cause of all revolutions – inequality.”

Waiter: “Gentlemen, may I get you anything else?”

Steve: “No thanks. The salad and dessert were great…and so was the wine. I’ve just had my fill of economics for the evening. No more.”

Jordan: “I’ll take the check.”

Ebook format of recent series of entries on Federal Budget. 15 05 23 Do They Really Understand Entries #121-#130

usrevolution5

~ USA Headed for a 5th Revolution! Why?

Category Archives: Causes of the Revolution

#174 Sense Check. On Track for the Revenge Revolution?

#173 Observations of Former Speaker of the House

#167 Racism, Discrimination, Diversity Aren’t Relevant. Look in the Mirror.

#166 NRA Contribution to the Revenge Revolution

#165 Republican Taliban

#153 What Is Education and How Should We Measure?

#152 Real Tax Burden (Part 2 of 2)

#150 Republicans Surprised by Revolution (Part 2 of 2)

#149 Republicans Surprised by the Revenge Revolution (1 of 2)

#148 European Economic Amnesia (Part 3 of 3)