Welcome to a discussion about the upcoming 5th Revolution in the US, which I’ve titled the “Revenge Revolution.” For more about the Revenge Revolution and the author, click “About the Author” tab.  Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether a revolution in the US is possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US. The previous “sense check” was Entry #476.

BEGIN ENTRY #500: For a long time, I thought Entry #500 would be ideal for more analysis about the current status of US Revolution V. However, as we all experience occasionally in life, the best laid plans sometimes go astray.

Midmorning Christmas Eve I was walking back from Starbucks.  All ok until the son of one of our neighbors decided to go driveway bowling. He used his BMW as the bowling ball and used me as the 10 pin. The only serious injury was to my right wrist which I used to break the fall from being hit.  X-rays showed the wrist either fractured or broken in four spots. 

Of course, the wrist is on my dominant hand, which makes typing slow and trying to write longhand laughable — at least for now.  Oh well, dictation works so here are some thoughts about the Revenge Revolution.

1. US Revolution V, aka the Revenge Revolution, looks as though it’s already in progress. We’ve talked about how widespread in several different entries, but I think Trump‘s campaign effort for reelection and the promises made associated with that campaign are downright scary. Whether you are Republican or Democrat, you don’t need a presidential candidate out advocating elimination of the justice system, revising the constitution to allow the person to hold office for life and immunity from prosecution among other promises.
2. The Supreme Court continues to show no integrity, either as a court or by several justices on the court. The court has no enforcement other than through the Department of Justice and the various states justice systems. Without respect for SCOTUS from the public, the whole idea of a unified democracy goes away. The court does have an opportunity with the upcoming cases — (i) the 01/06 insurrection; (ii) Trump’s claim of absolute immunity; (iii) providing guidance for interpretation of the 14^th Amendment and application to state election laws – to begin at least stabilizing the decline in public opinion, and maybe begin rebuilding it.
3. A large percentage of the public seems to not understand consequences of their potential behavior. For example, a percentage of black voters, and I don’t know exactly what percentage, is frustrated with Biden, and to express that frustration, have decided to support Trump. Why would anybody who is black want to support Trump given all of his racist comments and actions against blacks?  Also, some highly educated people whom I know seem completely brainwashed about what has happened, particularly around events leading up to and including January 6. A portion of this group asks, “why are all the prosecutors piling on Trump? He’s the right guy.“  Come on folks, he’s not the right guy. It doesn’t matter if he’s a Democrat or Republican, he’s a crook and has been a crook for a long, long time. Anybody who’s lived or worked in New York for any period of time knows that.  Wake up!

Where does this lead us in 2024 and beyond?  It’s going to get worse before it gets better. The discussions in earlier entries about the possibility of armed conflict seem more realistic today than ever before. Not a pretty forecast but I don’t know any way out of this quagmire without some sort of armed revolt and then the military putting down that revolt.

Talking and logic don’t seem to have any impact on people, particularly MAGAts. Republicans seem enamored with a bizarre interpretation of the 2nd amendment, which encourages mass ownership of assault weapons. Let’s save the gory details for later and try to enter 2024 with some degree of optimism. END ENTRY #500

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I started this blog in 2013 after accidentally discovering a pattern that “revolutions” occur in the US about every 50 years. Some of the revolutions were armed – Civil War, for example – and some were cultural – changes following significant immigration in the early 20th Century. The revolution occurring in the late 1960s/early 1970s was a bit of both. 

Based on the 50-year cycle, Revolution V should begin roughly between 2020–2025. Are we on track? (For more about the revolutions and the author, Entry #1.)

I haven’t written for a couple of weeks awaiting information from events that seemingly would help answer the question.  In addition to the anticipated events, there were some surprises.  In no particular order, the following is a partial list of events that should help determine if Revolution V, aka the Revenge Revolution, is on track .

1. More mass shootings, including another killing at a grammar school.  This time in Nashville, Tennessee. Three students, all under age 10 and three staff members were killed.  The killer, a lady in her 20’s, entered by shooting open a door that had been locked, supposedly to protect students and staff. So much for safety measures.
2. Tennessee House, led by Republicans, expelling two black legislators for…can you imagine this…joining a group of students who were demanding legislators enact gun safety legislation.  The temerity of those students! The Tennessee Speaker of the House claimed the two legislators joining the young protesters was worse than the actions of the insurrectionists who invaded the US Capitol January 6. I guess the speaker believes the South shall rise again!
3. North Carolina legislators eliminating any restrictions on carrying concealed weapons and eliminating any requirements for training with a handgun. The NC Republicans claimed lifting the restrictions would help protect citizens, including those in situations similar to the Tennessee school shooting. Yes, if only those 2^nd and 3^rd graders had a pistol in their backpacks everything would have been OK.
4. Federal judge in Texas ruling that the FDA had neither the authority to approve nor did it follow the proper protocol in approving a drug taken orally that terminates pregnancies. Just because the drug has been on the market for 26 years, has been tested worldwide, and there are more than 100 peer-reviewed clinical studies confirming safety, the Trump–appointed judge knows more than scientists in the field. Wanna bet he never got beyond high-school chemistry?  The judge was nice enough to incorporate in the formal ruling some of the plaintiff’s inflammatory and misleading language.   Great to see such a fair and impartial judge.  Fortunately, a judge in Washington State made a different ruling that likely will result in the case going before SCOTUS.
5. Speaking of SCOTUS, Politico reported that for more than 20 years Justice Clarence Thomas has failed to report substantial gifts to him and/or his spouse.  At least one of these gifts had an estimated value of $500,000.  How many different people or groups provided gifts is not yet known.  At least one person who regularly provided substantial gifts is a major contributor to the Republican Party. In response to the report, Thomas claimed, but without any documentation, that other justices had told him reporting such gifts was not required. Really?  I guess Thomas can’t read because the law says otherwise. Such gifts are required.  BTW, Clarence, I’ve got this bridge for sale that goes between Brooklyn and Manhattan.  Attractive price. Wanna buy it?
6. And, oh yes, the Donald. Trump must be honored to be the first US president indicted. A mere 34 felony counts charged by the Manhattan DA. Since the Donald loves publicity, there are many more charges coming. A different court case in New York City this week, which includes a possible rape charge.  Soon likely indictments from the New York State AG and a different set of charges from the Fulton County Georgia DA. All those cases are substantially broader than the Manhattan case. The Donald will get a lot of miles on the plane and oh, all that wonderful publicity.

Well, that’s the partial list. If you don’t think the US is in the beginning stages of Revolution V, not sure what is required to change your mind. More to come.

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Is a Revenge Revolution still likely?  The fall 2013 was the first entry in this blog. About every six or so months thereafter I’ve written a “sense check“ whether a 5^th US revolution was possible, or just a statistical aberration.

One needs to be careful about believing everything one writes is somehow automatically true. Doing so might make one feel better, but a peer review and some objective measures are good guardrails.

The last sense-check was Entry #400, published January 1, 2021. The entry preceded the attack on the US Capitol January 6 and preceded numerous (and on-going) attempts by Trump to overturn the results of the presidential election. From a historical perspective, I think the attack on the Capitol will mark the beginning of the 5th US revolution, the Revenge Revolution.

While Trump has continued to make noise, file frivolous lawsuits, and bilk supporters out of hard-earned cash by claiming he’s going to run again (fat chance),  there have been other events recently that suggest the 5^th US revolution is accelerating rather than slowing down as one might expect under a new, more rational Biden administration.

For example, in 2021 the Supreme Court seems to have decided to let the highly conservative Fifth Circuit do its dirty work by allowing the seemingly unconstitutional restrictive abortion law in Texas stand, thereby effectively overturning Roe v. Wade.

And yes, SCOTUS has decided that it supports those who question why the Federal government should have jurisdiction over states to protect its citizens against the pandemic.  Apparently the majority of SCOTUS thinks the current governors of such states as Florida and Texas are much more qualified than the world-class immunologist and virologist at CDC to make medical decisions.  Like SCOTUS, surely everyone knows that the Florida and Texas governors are the smartest people on the planet.

What may intensify the 5^th Revolution, however, is the Kyle Rittenhouse verdict in Kenosha, Wisconsin. Aside from a clearly biased judge, the verdict now allows someone to carry an assault weapon to an event, initiate trouble, kill people, and then claim he (or she) was being threatened by the people that he intimidated with the assault weapon.  As demonstrated in Kenosha, the killer in that situation can walk away without penalty.

Unfortunately, Republicans and the talking heads on Fox apparently are too stupid to understand the consequences of the Rittenhouse verdict. To demonstrate even more of their stupidity, Senators Cruz of Texas and Representative Matt Gaetz of Florida (under FBI investigation for sex trafficking) offered Rittenhouse an internship in their respective offices.  Doubtless Rittenhouse is as qualified for the position as Cruz and Gaetz are for Congress.

An equally large contributor to the 5th Revolution, although the effect will not be apparent until after the November 2022 mid-term election, is the effect of voter suppression, resulting from changes in state law and extensive gerrymandering. Once the Democrats and Independent voters realize how worthless their votes have become, they likely will become incensed.  But then it will be too late to change any outcome of the election.

How have Republicans been able to run roughshod over voting rights?  Again the US citizenry can thank Chief Justice John Roberts and, to a degree, Mitch McConnell for packing the Supreme Court with lackeys. Roberts led the charge to change the law when he wrote the majority opinion gutting the Voting Rights Act. 

Roberts’ method was subtle.  Rather than continuing to force proposed changes to voting rights in certain southern states to be approved by the Federal government before taking affect, Roberts allowed the states to make a law as restrictive as they wanted without Federal review.  Then, after the law took effect, aggrieved parties would need to sue and prove damages. 

While the voting-rights cases were slowly winding tgheir way through the courts, the restrictive laws would remain in effect and any elections would proceed.  Of course, if the restrictive laws were ever overturned, the plaintiffs had no method to rectify other laws implemented after the rigged elections. 

How will Roberts new “Rules of Order” for elections play out in 2022?  Republicans in such states North Carolina can gerrymander to their hearts content. North Carolina’s about evenly split between Democrats and Republicans. With recent changes to the redistricting maps, 10 of the 14 House seats are so gerrymandered as to guarantee a Republican victory.  Why wouldn’t anyone think that it’s fair for a state split about evenly between Republicans and Democrats, with Democrats holding a slight edge, to have 70% of the Federal House members guaranteed Republican?

One other event that is a positive for justice but may accelerate the Revenge Revolution is verdict in the Ahmaud Arbery case in Brunswick, GA.  Three men were convicted of murdering Mr. Arbery, who was unarmed and posed no threat.  The unfortunate aspect of the investigation is nothing was done to investigate the murder until a video was released, likely accidentally, of the three men chasing Mr. Arbery and murdering him.  Only after a public outcry was an investigation started.

The defense in the Arbery case used a defense similar to Rittenhouse.  It is OK to kill someone else, even if they are unarmed and pose no real threat.  Just claim the other person poses a threat.  The far right loves this logic and many Republicans seem to support or at least condone it.  Few, if any top Republicans commented publicly about the Arbery verdict, which was announced the day before Thanksgiving.  Must have been Republicans were more concerned about cooking the Thanksgiving turkey.    

When the Revenge Revolution ratchets up remains a question. How does anyone predict the point when a bubbling revolution boils over?   

What does seem almost assured, however, is when it boils over, the revolution will include a significant use of firearms and the killings of numerous higher-profile people. I wish the conclusion of the “sense check” were less onerous but I need to be honest about my assessment.  Let’s hope I’m wrong.

Other Topics. Interested in more info about climate change, what’s required to electrify a fleet of cars/trucks, what it was like to work day-to-day with Lee Iacocca and an array of other topics? Visit another page of this website, https://usrevolution5.com/jrd-thought-comments/

Entry #365 is a periodic “sense check” about the likelihood of a 5th revolution in the United States.  The first entry for this blog was in the fall 2013. The theme was based on a correlation that I discovered while writing another paper. The correlation was the United States has experienced some type of Revolution about every 50 years. (See Entry #1 for more explanation.)

According to my analysis, Revolution #4 occurred in the late 60s, early 1970s. If the pattern holds true, then there should be another revolution sometime around 2020. For nitpickers, measuring social change is not a precise algebraic equation. Therefore, a revolution in 2025 and even a few years later would still fall within the general guidelines of the 50-year cycle.

So, what’s the likelihood of this 5^th revolution? What was unknown in 2013 was a likely trigger point. By late 2013 the Obama Administration had implemented numerous social reforms but none seemed likely to trigger a revolution. Doubtless, some groups in society, especially those on the far right, were frustrated by the Administration’s policies but some groups are always frustrated when there’s change.

What has changed since? Enter the effect of Trump. The “Trump effect” cannot be attributed solely to Trump. Trump was more a catalyst than the cause. Some change had been building in the Republican Party for years. No question that Trump has managed to accelerate the change in the Republican Party. And the change has been more extensive and faster than anticipated.

Trump’s involvement was even a surprise to Republicans and Democrats. Few expected him to earn the nomination and even fewer expected him to be elected. But Trump was elected, well sort of elected. Based on a popular vote count Trump received about 3 million fewer votes than Clinton. Nevertheless, Trump won the Electoral College vote, the second consecutive Republican to lose the popular vote and still be elected.

While the Electoral College win was frustrating for many Democrats, what seemed to shatter any hope of Congress and/or voter coming together was Trump’s personal behavior. From the moment the outcome of the election was clear, Trump ramped up his insulting, boorish behavior, further alienating Democrats and many independent voters.

Trump also managed to bully Republicans in the House and Senate into supporting his strange policies. Other than the late Senator John McCain, no Republican has been willing to challenge Trump’s abandonment of many previously held Republican principles – free trade and fiscal conservatism, e.g.

The bullying has resulted in the same Republicans making no public effort to stop Trump’s serial lying, denigration of widely-respected government employees, trashing of the FBI and CIA, insulting the military chain of command, and repeatedly insulting leaders of long-standing US allies. Nor, has any Republican made any serious counter to Trump’s public support of known enemies of the US, which is a direct threat to national security.

Among the voting public, Trump supporters seem to fall into three major camps and a fourth smaller camp. The three major camps are: #1, far-right fringe groups, who relish Trump’s support, whether intentional or not; #2, Evangelical Christians who seem to focus on one issue – abortion – and somehow disregard 99% of Trump’s behavior that seems contrary to their core religious beliefs; #3, long-time Republicans who somehow cannot fathom voting for a Democrat no matter how bad the Republican is for the welfare of the country. Many of these “yellow-dog Republicans” are likely primary voters who hold a disproportionate influence on members of Congress.

The fourth camp, which has the fewest number of people but the most influence, is the money camp. If one filters out all the noise, the quest for money is what drives Trump. His policies, whether tax policies or directives to such agencies as EPA to slow or stop enforcement, have consistently favored the money group. There is considerable evidence that seems to indicate his positive attitude toward and accommodation of the Russians is driven by access to their money.

Maybe most surprising and illogical to me is that Trump and Trump TV talking heads (Fox News) have convinced the three non-money camps that Trump’s policies are in their best economic interest, when in fact, the policies are contrary to the economic interests of virtually all these families. The 2017 tax cut is a good example. The tax cut threw a few bones to middle and lower-income families in the short term. However, beginning in the mid-2020’s, the “tax cut” results in penalties to middle-income families while continuing to benefit the rich.

In addition, the tax cut for corporations combined with the tax cut for the wealthy was so significant that the Federal deficit ballooned in 2019 – up 50% to about $1,000,000,000 – even though the economy was reasonably strong. Oh, yes I forgot, Trump is the reason the economy grew. The deficit grew because of Obama’s policies.    (Seriously, if you want to understand more about why “trickle-down” economics is a fraud, even though widely supported by many Republicans, start with Entry #21. It’s conversational and easy to understand. Entry #237 also addresses some fundamentals of economics.)

What could be the trigger point for the 5th US revolution is Trump’s reelection. But the revolution will not be started by Democrats. The revolution will be started by Trump supporters. Why?

Long before Trump, I assigned a name to the projected 5^th revolution – the Revenge Revolution. But revenge for what?

Right now the table seems to have lots of plates that qualify for revenge – inequitable economic policies; environmental degradation; a department of education that favors private over public education; a president and first family that are enriching themselves at public expense; an immigration policy where children are physically separated from the parents then housed in cages for indefinite periods; an attorney general who promotes Trump as being above the law; a president who labels wounded military veterans as “scum;” a president who is a serial liar, distorting the truth about even the most insignificant issues…and the list goes on.

Despite all the obvious reasons for revenge against the Trump Administration, the Revenge Revolution may be started by an unexpected group. The group is Trump supporters.

If Trump is reelected, Trump will try to satisfy his money camp and start screaming about the need to reduce the Federal deficit. But Trump will argue the deficit cannot be reduced by raising taxes – such a move would kill economic growth and result in a recession. No, the only way to reduce the Federal deficit is with additional cuts in spending for social programs – food stamps, e.g. – as well as cutbacks in Medicare, Social Security and support for Obamacare.

If Trump is not reelected, then Republicans will make the same arguments that the Federal deficit is too high and must be reduced. One thing about their argument is correct. The rate of increase in the deficit needs to be reduced. But reduced by returning tax rates to levels under Obama, or even Clinton, and not by cutting social programs and cutting benefits for program workers have funded.

The proposed cuts in Medicare and Social Security may finally awaken Trump supporters to realize how much they’re going to be screwed economically under Trump’s new proposals , and then how much they have been screwed under Trump’s existing policies. When they do awaken, this group will be shocked and angry. They might also start listening to their children and grandchildren and finally acknowledge that global warming is real and not a hoax of some 3,000 scientist and every credible news outlet worldwide.

What form might the Revenge Revolution take? The 4^th revolution in the late 1960’s/early 1970’s was a mix of social upheaval and armed rebellion. The social side is often referenced with a cutesy photograph of a couple hippies dressed in tie-dyes and smoking weed in Haight Asbury or at Woodstock.

The armed side of the 4^th Revolution was much grimmer. Events included significant riots that devastated parts of Newark, Detroit and Los Angeles as well as protests in many other cities and college campuses. 1968 included the assassinations of Martin Luther King and Robert Kennedy.

Given the continued expansion of ownership of firearms, the Revenge Revolution is likely to be more of an armed rebellion than the 1960’s/1970’s. But who will be the aggressors and who will be the targets in the Revenge Revolution?

Although I have not done a deep-dive into the psychology of why, a group that seems likely to be part of the aggressors is those who view the changing demographics of the United States as diminishing the value of their “whiteness.” To me such thinking seems a bit absurd.

However, a long article in The NY Times (19 12 29 NYT Example of Attitude of Trump Supporters in AZ) discussed attitudes of some of Trump’s core base in Arizona. The base is very white, less-educated and seemingly either brainwashed or completely delusional about who is really impacted by Trump’s policies. Like many Trump supporters I’ve tried to talk to and understand, this group’s lexicon seems to be unique – “up” means “down,” “good” means “bad,” “hate” means ”patriotic,” etc.

A number of comments and quotes in the article left my head shaking. One comment from a Trump supporter that I found both frightening and amusing, “I don’t have a problem with Muslims but can they take the rag off their head out of respect for our country?” The scary part is this guy’s very anti-Muslim, and probably anti-black, anti-Asian and anti-Semitic as well.

The amusing side was it probably never occurred to the speaker he too was wearing a head-cover, thus by his own definition, disrespecting this country. And it probably never occurred to him his MAGA hat was made of the same basic cotton as the Muslim’s “rag.” Somehow I don’t irony would play well with this guy.

This group of self-proclaimed patriots discussed having an armed revolt if Trump was not reelected in 2020. Nice to see the patriots support the US Constitution and the electoral process.

On a broader scale the likelihood of a 5^th US Revolution seems to increase with the findings of the impeachment proceedings, the bizarre actions/inactions by Mitch McConnell and the continued overhang of the many unanswered questions of Mueller Report, especially Trump’s association with the Russians – likely more about money than philosophy.

In the last Sense Check, Entry #332, I indicated the probability of the revolution had increased to “highly likely.” Based on what’s happened in Washington the past few months, a forecast of “highly likely” seems on solid ground with an emerging forecast closer to “almost assured.”

Unfortunately, as experienced during the 4^th Revolution, the 5^th US Revolution is likely to include the assassinations of high-profile figures. Targets will likely include those deemed “liberal,” whether judges, politicians, prominent business people, or media personalities. Equally unfortunate is that the police and/or the US military will be unable to prevent many of these killings.

Think about all the mass killings in the US and how they’ve occurred. (As of December 31, 2019, 434 mass shootings occurred in 2019… In these shootings, over 1,643 people were injured and 517 died, for a total of over 2,160 victims.) Virtually all were carried out by a single individual. Imagine a well-organized killing effort by a group of individuals with military-assault style rifles. There are millions of AR-15’s in private hands and even more rounds of ammunition. Yes, it’s scary.

As noted repeatedly throughout this blog, I hope the assumption is wrong about a 5^th US revolution, the Revenge Revolution. Everyone who makes predictions makes mistakes. And I am no exception. However, I wish my track record at making accurate predictions were a little less positive than it is.

Welcome to the year 2020.