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~ USA Headed for a 5th Revolution! Why?

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Category Archives: Societal Issues

#175 Dealing with the Science Deniers

27 Sunday Dec 2015

Posted by Jordan Abel in Back Asswards Thinking, Causes of the Revolution, Education Issues, Societal Issues

≈ Leave a comment

First-time readers, this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020).  Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution.  More about Revenge Revolution and author, Entry #1.  List and general description of entries to date.  Annual assessment whether Revolution plausible.

Note: most characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations.  Profile of characters.  You’ll catch on quickly.  Thanks for your time and interest…and comments. 

092615_2031_Characters1.jpgJC: “Jordan, looks as if you have another visitor. Check behind you.”

Jordan: “Matt, great to see you.”

Matt: “Jordan, nice to see you. When you’re finished, may I talk to you for a few minutes, please? Or, if better for you, I’ll catch up with you tomorrow.”

Jordan: “Let’s spend a few minutes now. Let me introduce two long-time friends of mine, Greenie and JC. Guys meet Matt…”

092615_2031_Characters2.jpgGreenie: “Excuse me, but aren’t you the reporter who wrote the book on General Motors?”

Matt: “Yes, how’d you like it?”

Greenie: “Fascinating. I’m not much into business but the way you wove in personal stories kept my attention. I really did like the book.”

Matt: “Thanks. JC, what about you? Read the book?”

JC: “Parts of it. But I also conned Jordan into telling me some of the details. GM was a remarkable success and a remarkable tragedy.”

092615_2031_Characters11.pngMatt: “At least the company is on the rebound now.”

JC: “Speaking of rebounds, Greenie and I need to get out of here. Matt, nice to meet you. Jordan, enjoyed the conversation.”

Greenie: “Me, too, Jordan. Take care of yourself and we’ll talk soon.”

Jordan: “OK guys. Thanks for being nice to the old guy. See ya’.”

Matt: “So how long have you known Greenie and JC?”

TurtleneckJordan: “We all went to the same grammar school, although we were a grade or two apart.”

Matt: “Wow, I’m impressed that you still keep in contact.”

Jordan: “Greenie and especially JC are much better at keeping in touch classmates than I am. Before we get started, do you want a glass of wine or cup of coffee?”

Matt: “Coffee would be great. I’ll use Greenie’s cup. Looks as if she didn’t touch it. Is the pot regular or no-lead?”

Jordan: “Half regular, half no-lead…decaf.”

Matt: “That’ll work. Now I need to pick your brain.”

Jordan: “About what?”

voodoo-2015958Matt: “Science deniers. I’m drafting an article, and maybe a book about why some seemingly intelligent people deny scientific evidence. They might as well believe in vodoo.  The denial is even more baffling for those with some college, let alone a degree.”

Jordan: “You mean like people claiming global warming is a hoax. And then claiming that 3,000 scientists…or some large number of scientist worldwide got together to perpetuate the hoax? I know one guy with an advanced degree in one of the sciences that believes there is a hoax.”

Matt: “I’ve heard other people with advanced degrees flatly deny mounds of empirical ignoreevidence for say certain economic theories. Why is that?”

Jordan: “Two reasons, and you just mentioned one – the use of the word ‘theory.'”

Matt: “You mean that in science, the use of the word ‘theory’ means a way of explaining behavior, given a certain amount of evidence. The theory can be used to predict other events, or outcomes.”

Jordan: “But for politicians, pundits and many in the public, theory means you have an idea but it does not need to be based on evidence or observations. To these people, a 092615_2031_Characters12.giftheory can be a wild-ass guess – a WAG, if you will. They like to give the finger to science.  For this group, a scientific theory is like some Mickey-Mouse idea that can be discarded and even belittled.”

Matt: “What’s the second point?”

Jordan: “The only real sciences are chemistry and physics. The deniers claim chemistry and physics are real because some of them completed an experiment in a high school lab.”

Matt: “But the other sciences – climate science, economics, social sciences, etc.…you can’t do some lab experiment.  The results aren’t the same every time like chemistry and physics lab experiments so someone is just guessing at the outcome.  Those ‘other’ sciences are squishy — like a tennis ball — and therefore not real science. tennis ball 2Think how often the weather man is wrong.  So what climatologists know about global warming?”

Jordan: “The irony is that the so-called ‘hard sciences’ – chemistry and physics – are just as squishy. But to the ideologues why ruin a good argument? Claim the other sciences are really not sciences and therefore discount or discard all results that don’t fit the ideologue’s position. So Matt, how do you (i) capture in a book the phenomenon of denial among seemingly intelligent people and more importantly, (ii) make the book interesting?

Matt: “That’s why I need some help. I really want to point out why public policy should be based as much as possible on science, even if the scientific theories are being challenged and tweaked over time.”

ScaleJordan: “To me the most important issue for any public policy is relevance. By that I mean, understanding the consequences of action or inaction.  If something is out of balance, fix it.

Matt: “Tell me more about what you mean.”

Jordan: “The issue with global warming, for example, is not determining exactly how much extra CO2 is generated by say coal-fired power plants. We know coal-fired plants are a out-of-balance contributor to global warming.  So the policy should be replace coal asap with less polluting approaches to generating electricity.”

Matt: “What about focusing on measuring the amount of global warming from coal plants, rather than the claiming plants as a major contributor?”

Jordan: “How many angels can dance on the head of a pin?  The exact amount becomes an academic argument that does not solve the problem.  Science-deniers will claim global warming, for example, is due from multiple causes and therefore nothing can be done.”

Matt: “Are you saying just focus instead on what solutions can help solve the problem?”

Jordan: “Matt, to me focusing only on solutions takes us full circle and does not really help solve problems.”

Matt: “Why so?”

albert_einstein_professor croppedJordan: “Because without a real understanding of the cause of the problem — even if the amount contributing to the problem is not exact — then the deniers will offer solutions that fit their fantasy world and not address the issue.”

Matt: “Have an example other than global warming?”

Jordan: “How ’bout economic policy? The deniers continue to refuse to accept mounds of empirical evidence demonstrating that in a recession the central government needs to increase expenditures, not decrease expenditures.  The deniers’ solution is exactly the opposite of the evidence.”

Matt: “I need a break. But I also want to say I think there is hope.”

Jordan: “Good.  I can’t wait to hear your logic.”

#174 Sense Check. On Track for the Revenge Revolution?

16 Wednesday Dec 2015

Posted by Jordan Abel in Causes of the Revolution, Societal Issues

≈ 79 Comments

First-time readers, this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020).  Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution.  More about Revenge Revolution and author, Entry #1.  List and general description of entries to date.

Note: most characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations.  Profile of characters.  You’ll catch on quickly.  Thanks for your time and interest…and comments. 

Scene: JC, Greenie, and Jordan sitting outside at a restaurant near Jordan’s office.  Conversation starts #169.

092615_2031_Characters2.jpgGreenie: “Jordan, didn’t you start a blog predicting the Revenge Revolution?”

JC: “When did you start the blog, Jordan? Seems like a long time ago.”

Jordan: “The first entry was late fall 2013. I’ve forgotten the exact date. The first time I wrote about a revolution was about 2010 but that paper never was published.”

Greenie: “Did you ever think you might be crazy thinking there would be another revolution? Ever step back and just ask, ‘Am I off in the weeds or does this make sense?'”

092615_2031_Characters1.jpgJordan: “As you guys know well, if you read only the information that supports your argument, you start to believe your argument, no matter how whacko. Tried to avoid that and, in fact, published ‘sense checks’ about once a year.”

JC: “Any way to download one now? If you can, I’d like to see the one from 2015 — before the presidential election. There were lots of crazy things going on.”

Jordan: “Here’s the download.”

December 16, 2015

In late 2013 I published the first entry in this blog. Its time for a sense check.

The premise of the blog – the US will experience another revolution sometime after the year 2020 — still seems valid. One needs to be careful about self-evaluation but I believe an objective assessment of the level of negative attitudes among American populous will confirm my belief.

One can argue whether the increase in negative attitudes has been exacerbated by actions of President Obama, the lack of meaningful action by Congress (which rates right along used-car sales people for credibility), the media (whoever ‘they’ are), continued economic erosion of the middle class, increased tension in the Middle East…or any number of other factors. Whatever the cause, the result is clearly a deterioration in public confidence in government and increased hyperbole by various presidential candidates.

None of the aforementioned reasons should be the primary cause for a revolution. However, when combined, the social environment seems ripe for a revolt.

The blog URL includes “US Revolution 5” because by my count there have been four previous revolutions: (i) American Revolution, which finally ended following War of 1812; (ii) Civil War: (iii) Industrial Revolution with migration from the south and farms to industrial cities, primarily in the north; (iv) cultural revolution of the late 1960’s/early 1970’s. The period between each revolution is about 50 years. Whether coincidence or a cycle is hard to determine.

If a cycle, then the next revolution should start sometime between say the years 2020 and 2025. The consequence of this revolution, which I labeled the Revenge Revolution, could be a severe as the US Civil War. Why such a statement?

Economic dislocation is often an underlying cause of a revolution. Whatever one might think the cause, median incomes in the US, when adjusted for inflation, have declined household-income-real-median-growth-since-2000for 15 years. Further, many workers no longer have a defined benefit pension program. Without such a pension, many people face markedly lower standards of living in retirement.

In addition, many Republicans have focused on dismantling the Affordable Care Act. Rather than fix the inevitable problems that occur with new comprehensive legislation, the Republicans have vowed to take away health care support for many Americans.

Such ‘take away’s’ do not bode well with a large percentage of the population that also had their incomes reduced.

Possibly the most important contributor to a revolution comes from analyzing the rationale of supporters of two 2016 presidential candidates – Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. Watching a Trump political rally is like watching some of Hitler’s early speeches. Cruz is more subtle than Trump but the message is also scarier. Of those who have worked closely with Cruz in the past, there are few kind words and most seem to loathe him. Trump, while boisterous and some consider a blowhard, at least has been forced to work with different groups and governments in his real estate business.

Some Republicans might think such statements are over the top. Think what you want but I ask you to listen carefully to the statements and then analyze the crowd reaction. These events are not typical political rallies. The rallies are not football games or baseball games where the outcome has no impact on real life. These political rallies are ‘mind-bending’ events.

Ironically, the most vocal supporters of Trump and Cruz are also the most likely to lead the revolution. One day soon the supporters will awaken and realize that in their frenzy, they have been supporting a politician proposing policies that are contrary to the supporter’s best interest. The Republicans need to remember that ‘Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned.’ Along with the scorn, a very large portion of the Trump/Cruz supporters own firearms. The hyperbole spouted by certain politicians and talk-radio hosts has encouraged the owners of firearms to stock up on ammunition.

Well, enough writing. All seems on track for the 5th US revolution, the Revenge Revolution. Don’t mean to spoil the holidays but just thought a good time for a sense check.”

JC: “Whadda think Greenie? Was he rational?”

TurtleneckGreenie: “I’m not sure Jordan is ever rational. Seriously, the logic seems ok. I just wish he’d been wrong and there had been no Revenge Revolution.”

Jordan: “I hear you Greenie. The one good thing about the Revenge Revolution – at least the country is changing for the better.”

JC: “I agree. Now, I need to break.”

#173 Observations of Former Speaker of the House

09 Wednesday Dec 2015

Posted by Jordan Abel in Causes of the Revolution, Gov't Policy, Innovative Thinking: Ideas and Products, Societal Issues

≈ Leave a comment

First-time readers, this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020).  Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution.  More about Revenge Revolution and author, Entry #1.  List and general description of entries to date.

Note: most characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations.  Profile of characters.  You’ll catch on quickly.  Thanks for your time and interest…and comments. 

Scene: JC, Greenie, and Jordan sitting outside at a restaurant near Jordan’s office.  Conversation starts #169.

Jordan: “Excuse me. I should be back shortly.”

092615_2031_Characters1.jpgJC: “Wonder where he’s going?”

Greenie: “Relax. It might be an old guy thing. You know…”

JC: “Greenie, turn around slowly and see who Jordan’s talking to.”

Greenie: “That’s the former Speaker of the House. What’s John Boy doing back in D.C.?

JC: “I don’t know but they are headed this way.”

092615_2031_Characters2.jpgGreenie: “Both of them?”

JC: “Yep. This should be interesting.”

Jordan: “John Boy, I’d like you to meet two long-time friends of mine, Greenie and JC.”

John Boy: “Nice to meet you both. How can two lovely young ladies hang around with an old guy like Jordan?”

JC: “Such a charmer. Very nice to meet you.”

Greenie: “Likewise. Nice to meet you. What brings you back to Washington? Aren’t you living in Ohio now?”

man_with_speechJohn Boy: “Living in Chillicothe…and loving it.”

JC: “I plead ignorance. Just where is Chillicothe?”

John Boy: “Southern half of Ohio, about midway and about an hour south of Columbus, the home of…Jordan, want to finish the sentence?”

Jordan: “Not on your life. Go Blue!”

Greenie: “OK boys, enough football rivalry. I have a question. Mr. Speaker…”

John Boy: “Greenie, cut the speaker crap. It’s ‘John Boy’, OK?”

Greenie: “OK, John Boy, why did you move back to Ohio? Why not stay in DC – lots of cushy jobs for the taking.”

Dairy_Queen_1961John Boy: “First and foremost, Chillicothe has not one but two DQ’s. It’s hard to find one Dairy Queen in DC.”

JC: “Seriously, why back to Ohio?”

John Boy: “I grew up in that part of Ohio. The people were nice enough to elect me to Congress for 12 terms to the House. It was a great run. And the people there are real. I just got tired of all the BS in inside the Beltway.”

TurtleneckJordan: “Don’t you miss the excitement of Congress?”

John Boy: “Congress is much like make-believe land, or at least it was when I was there. Maybe, just maybe, the Revenge Revolution will bring back some reality.”

Greenie: “If you don’t mind me asking, what was your biggest frustration in Congress?”

John Boy: “My party would not face reality. Republicans kept denying the empirical evidence, whether global warming, economic policy or the need for some type of rational gun control.”

Greenie: “Didn’t anyone study the data?”

John Boy: “If they did, it was dismissed out of hand. Plus, anyone who dared cite the data, no matter how credible the source, was branded a heretic.”

JC: “Congressional Republicans have not always been like that, have they?”

John Boy: “When I started in Congress, members actually studied the information before taking a position. I should say most members, not all. You know the old story about ‘Yellow Dog Democrats.'”

JC: “So what happened? When did ideology take over from rational thinking?”

John Boy: “This sounds terrible because I know so many mainstream Republicans like ronald_reaganhim, but the problem started with Ronald Reagan.”

Greenie: “You mean Reagan’s mantra of ‘Government is the problem, not the solution.’?”

John Boy: “Exactly, he kept saying it over and over and over. And people started ti believe him. I agree government is not always the best solution but its also not the problem all the time. I’d hate to have a private military.”

Greenie: “Anything else?”

50_cal_rifle_by_bebop953John Boy: “Yes. About the same time the NRA started promoting the idea that people had a right to own any type of firearm, no matter how lethal. I mean, who needs a 50 caliber semi-automatic rifle? Have you seen a herd of rogue elephants attacking people in the US lately?”

JC: “What about Democrats? Republicans are not the only ones at fault.”

Greenie: “Is that you talking, JC, or you need to be exorcised?”

John Boy: “Look, Democrats deserve some of the blame. But Democrats got pushed Arrow Leftfarther left when the Republicans shifted right?”

Jordan: “That’s an interesting observation. Democrats shifted left because Republicans shifted right. Why so? If you were the Democratic Party, why not grab the middle? Seems kike a great way to expand the base.”

John Boy: “My view is Democrats feared that if they grabbed the middle, then a faction of those farther left would splinter and start a 3rd party.”

Greenie: “And the 3rd party would erode a good portion of the Democratic base and the old Democratic Party might be left holding an empty bag.”

John Boy: “Politics is no different from marketing a product. Your product…the political party…needs to have a clear positioning statement that people can understand easily.”

Greenie: “You think a positioning of being is the middle, as it were, makes it harder for people to understand what the party’s about. Is that right?”

TrumpJohn Boy: “Look at the Donald in 2015 and 2016. You might have abhorred his statements but his position was clear. Right or wrong, people understood…or at least thought they understood…what he intended to do.”

JC: “You agree with that idea Jordan? You’ve been unusually quiet.”

Jordan: “I agree. The Donald aside, try to think of a highly successful product that does not have a clear positioning statement. You have to stand for something.”

John Boy: “I’ll tell you what else caused the parties to shift, particularly Republicans shifting right.”

Greenie: “Media outlets?”

parrothead_tnsJohn Boy: “Starting with talk radio. You and I know that Limbaugh, Hannity and the other talking heads are entertainers…and certainly not scholars. But many…probably most of the listeners actually believe these jokers are credible.”

Greenie: “How can anyone believe the Rush Man? He dropped out of what was the name of that college?”

JC: “…something like Southeast Missouri State Teachers College.”

Greenie: “I think that’s the school. Then he was convicted of dealing drugs.”

John Boy: “Plea bargain, please. But all those facts don’t matter to his listeners. To them, whatever Rush says must be true.”

Greenie: “Your constituents believe him?”

John Boy: “Many did…but far fewer after the Revenge Revolution. Like a lot of people american-revolution-728714in the US, they’re beginning to demand that elected officials in this country start acting like adults and not whiny little children.”

Jordan: “By the way, John Boy, forgot to ask what brings you to town?”

John Boy: “We’re visiting my granddaughter, who’s a student at Georgetown.”

Jordan: “She’s not at the Ohio State University? Smart kid.”

John Boy: “Her choice, not mine. And, thanks for reminding me. I need to run. She and my supervisor went shopping and they are probably back by now.”

Jordan: “John Boy, nice to see you. Thanks for spending a few minutes with us.”

John Boy: “I enjoyed it. JC, Greenie – very nice to meet you. And stay away from Jordan, OK?”

JC and Greenie (in unison): “We’ll try.”

Greenie: “Interesting guy. Some insightful observations.”

JC: “Agreed. I really enjoyed it. And I’ll enjoy a break as well.”

#172 Humans: Peat, Repeat, Three-Peat?

05 Saturday Dec 2015

Posted by Jordan Abel in Innovative Thinking: Ideas and Products, Societal Issues

≈ Leave a comment

First-time readers, this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020).  Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution.  More about Revenge Revolution and author, Entry #1.  List and general description of entries to date.

Note: most characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations.  Profile of characters.  You’ll catch on quickly.  Thanks for your time and interest…and comments. 

Scene: JC, Greenie, and Jordan sitting outside at a restaurant near Jordan’s office.  Conversation starts #169.

Greenie: “While we’re off on these wild tangents about time, space and where your 092615_2031_Characters2.jpgsoul goes, I had another thought.”

JC: “Only one? Surely you can do better.”

Jordan: “JC, be nice to Greenie…she’s your friend, remember?”

JC: “I know…but when will the conversation get back to the good stuff –like stupidity in Washington?”

Jordan: “Let’s stay on the make-believe for a little bit longer. Actually, we’re talking about real-world stuff now. Inside the Beltway is the make-believe world.”

Greenie: “Now, if you guys are finished. Here’s my question. ‘What if the world today is just a rerun from say 1,000,000 years ago…or even 5,000,000 years ago?’ We all agreed that 1,000,000 years is like still January 1st in terms of how long the earth’s been around.”

dinosaur_3JC: “Huh? 1,000,000 years ago there were dinosaurs…or big stuff like that anyway. Besides, the world was not very advanced then. How could this be a rerun…or repeat…for humans?”

Greenie: “How do you know humans were not advanced? Besides, maybe humans were dinosaurs with different kind of skin.”

092615_2031_Characters1.jpgJC: “You gone wacko?”

Greenie: “Really, who says tall buildings, lots of cars and trucks, polluted air and water is progress? Maybe humans are going backwards instead of forwards.”

Jordan: “So civilization could be stuck in reverse while everything else is in drive, right?”

Greenie: “Think about it. With global warming, we’re coming to the end for humans. What’s so advanced about that?”

JC: “Interesting Greenie. When did this idea hit you?”

Wrong WayGreenie: “It came together just now. When I look around, the human race seems to be going backwards. Really going the wrong way.”

Jordan: “Now there’s a thought. Humans are regressing and other animals are progressing.”

JC: “True that many animals live together in harmony. The animals protect one another, care for one another and even appear to mourn over the loss of one of their own.”

Greenie: “And what do humans do? Humans have refined the art of killing one another, stealing from one another and polluting the very place where we live. Seems sort of dumb, doesn’t it?”

Jordan: “Your analysis sounds very…something or other. I’m not sure of the exact Turtleneckword, but you know what I mean.”

JC: “You mean she sounds like a socialist…or some hippie left over from the 1960’s.”

Jordan: “No, I was thinking ‘utopian’ might work but it doesn’t really fit either.”

JC: “Alright, most people will say what I said a few minutes ago, ‘Greenie, are you wacko?’ However, I do find the observation very insightful. What do we do with it?”

Greenie: “Nothing, I guess. We’re just talking.”

Jordan: “There’s some real meat in what you said. Maybe we humans are looking at the world the wrong way.”

Twilight ZoneJC: “Are we trying to reincarnate Rod Serling and ‘The Twilight Zone'”?

Greenie: “Not really. But if there are four or five dimensions, not just three, why couldn’t one of them go in the opposite direction – like reverse?”

JC: “I guess it could. Sounds sort of goofy but it could. OK, but what about technology? Humans are far more advanced today than even 100 years ago, let along 1,000 years ago.”

Jordan: “One could argue that point. But on a practical scale, humans built some very sphinx-pyramid2sophisticated buildings thousands of years ago. Think about the pyramids.”

JC: “Guys, this is making my brain spin. I have a hard time thinking that humans are regressing and animals progressing. Makes no sense.”

Greenie: “OK, then. What if humans were on a repeat cycle? In Bush 43 terms, a ‘do-over.'”

Second ChanceJC: “I could buy that idea. Humans advanced up to say 1,000,000 years ago, then disappeared. Then, about 500,000 years ago whoever is managing the universe decides humans need a second chance, a ‘do-over’.”

Jordan: “I can buy into that idea, too. Besides, who’s to say it’s not right?”

JC: “So after ‘second-chance’ humans wipe themselves out in the next 300-400 years, I wonder if universe’s managing director will give humans yet another chance?”

Greenie: “Another do-over or better still a do-do-over?”

JC: “I like the term, ‘do-do-over’ but maybe the term ‘three-peat’ is a better.”

Jordan: “Well, why not a do-do-over, or three-peat as you say? We talked about all these souls floating around. The souls need some place to land.”

JC: “OK, that’s it. No more of this sci-fi stuff. You promised we would go back to talking about things I can understand – like stupid behavior in Washington.”

Greenie: “You really understand the Beltway BS?”

122913_1337_14BringingU2.pngJC: “There is one thing I understand for certain. I could use another glass of wine.”

(Back to the causes of the 5th Revolution, the Revenge Revolution, next segment.)

#169 1,000,000 Years and It’s Still New Year’s Day?

14 Saturday Nov 2015

Posted by Jordan Abel in Innovative Thinking: Ideas and Products, Societal Issues

≈ 5 Comments

First-time readers, this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020).  Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution.  More about Revenge Revolution and author, Entry #1.  List and general description of entries to date.

Note: most characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations.  Profile of characters.  You’ll catch on quickly.  Thanks for your time and interest…and comments. 

Scene: JC, Greenie, and Jordan sitting outside at a restaurant near Jordan’s office.

Greenie: “Here’s to our good health.”

122913_1337_14BringingU2.pngJC: “May the year ahead be filled with happiness.”

Jordan: “May we all live in peace.” (All raise glasses in a toast.)

Greenie: “I’d love to live in peace but I can’t imagine it ever happening. We all seem so uncivilized. Will we ever change?  Terrorists are horrible.  But look at people in Washington.”

Jordan: “I think Washington after the Revenge Revolution will get better but I hear you.”

JC: “On a lighter note, you know what popped into my mind when you asked ‘Will we ever change?'”

Jordan: “Back to the future?”

JC: “No, but close. The Woody Allen movie ‘Sleeper.'”

122813_2140_15Education2.jpgGreenie: “That movie was hilarious. There are two scenes I remember the most. The first is when he learns that eating foods with lots of fat and cholesterol are not bad for you, good for you. And the second was…”

Jordan: “Let me guess. The second was the orgasmatron.”

JC: “I could use an orgasmatron right now.”

Greenie: “Now, JC, be careful. We don’t want to hear about your sex life.”

122813_2140_15Education1.jpgJC: “There isn’t any sex life. That’s why I could use the orgasmatron.”

Jordan: “Guys, let’s change the topic, but only slightly. Take a look up at the stars. What comes to mind?”

Greenie: “Gorgeous evening, good friends, good wine. And who knows what’s really out there. Look at all those stars.”

JC: “Billions and billions, as Carl Sagan said. And how far away are they? A million light years or something?”

TurtleneckJordan: “OK, take a million years. How old is the earth?”

Greenie: “What, at least 5 billion years…maybe 10 billion?”

Jordan: “Call it 5 billion just to be safe. What percent is one million of five billion?”

JC: “Where are you headed with this question? Another math game? But one million is 0.2% of five billion.”

Jordan: “In other words, barely enough to register. If we equated the 0.2% to a calendar year, it would still be New Year’s Day and still in the afternoon.

Greenie: “I’m confused. Where is this conversation going? Or trying to go anyway?”

starry nightJordan: “Greenie, you said people are too uncivilized in order to have world peace. I agree…but what if it were one million years from now? Or…”

JC: “…what if one of those planets out there has life like earth. But life on that planet started one million years before earth?”

Greenie: “One million years seemed like a long time until you compared the one million years to calendar days. One million years and it’s not yet dinner time New Year’s Day.”

JC: “Do you guys think there could be life on another planet…you know, life as we know it?”

Greenie: “What are the chances?”

Jordan: “You both had statistics, right?”

JC: “Basic course. Nothing advanced.”

Greenie: “Me, too. Just a basic stats course.”

Math formulaJordan: “You’ve had enough statistics to make a good guess. Let’s start by saying there are say 50-100 billion stars and plants in the galaxies.”

Greenie: “You think there are that many?”

Jordan: “Probably many more. Every time we turn around, the astronomers seem to find another galaxy. No one has any idea how big the universe is.”

JC: “Alright, of the 100 billion stars and planets, what are the odds of another earth-like civilization?”

earthGreenie: “Well, if the odds are 1,000,000,000:1, then there would be 50-100 earth-like planets.”

Jordan: “And what are the odds that of the 50-100 earth-like planets, earth was the first to develop life?”

JC: “100:1, which makes earth being first highly unlikely.”

Jordan: “Whatever one’s beliefs about religion, random development, evolution, creation theory…all those theories…the odds are earth is not the only game in town.”

Greenie: “When you walk through the logic as you just did, I understand what you mean.”

JC: “So we’re saying there’s probably life out there somewhere and that civilization could be easily 1,000,000 years more advanced than earth. Is that what we’re saying?”

Jordan: “Yes. Now, let’s break down the last 1,000,000 years on earth and see what’s happened.”

early humans_clubGreenie: “Was man even around then?”

JC: “Certainty more ape-like than today, although I wonder if some men have made any progress.”

Greenie: “Remember, no more comments about your sex life.”

JC: “People were probably just hunters and gatherers.”

Greenie: “The Stone Age ended what 50,000 to 100,000 years ago. And the Bronze Age maybe 5-10,000 years ago?”

JC: “What if we said 10,000 years ago was the start of the modern era of civilization. How far into the year would we be?”

Jordan: “10,000 divided by 1,000,000 times 365. In terms of development compared to development on the other plant, we’d be at January 4, just after noon.”

januaryGreenie: “All the development for the last 10,000 years and we’re only at January 4th into the year? Wow!”

Jordan: “Question back to you, Greenie. You said people are uncivilized. In terms of being civilized, do you think people are more, less or about the same as people were 10,000 years ago?”

Greenie: “Probably not much more, if any. We still have de facto slavery, still have many people who are hungry, pollution is worse and people are still killing each other for now logical reason.”

JC: “Greenie, that’s depressing. All those years and no progress with the fundamentals of civilization. Jordan, could you refill the wine glasses, please?”

(Continued)

#168 Black Women as Change Agents

07 Saturday Nov 2015

Posted by Jordan Abel in Possible Solutions, Rebranding Black Community, Societal Issues

≈ Leave a comment

First-time readers, this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020).  Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution.  More about Revenge Revolution and author, Entry #1.  List and general description of entries to date.

Note: most characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations.  Profile of characters.  You’ll catch on quickly.  Thanks for your time and interest…and comments. 

Scene: coffee shop near Jordan’s office.  Matt, a reporter for a major newspaper, had interviewed Jordan for an earlier series of articles. Jordan and Matt having a conversation about Matt’s upcoming book, the causes of the Revenge Revolution.  This general conversation starts Entry #165.

092615_2031_Characters11.pngMatt: “I understand your argument about taking personal responsibility, but…”

Jordan: “…but what?”

Matt: “Blacks came to this country as slaves. Other ethnic groups volunteered. There’s a big difference.”

Jordan: “Matt, I’ve heard that argument before. Now, let’s analyze it.”

TurtleneckMatt: “Doesn’t involuntary servitude make blacks different?”

Jordan: “Why do you think other ethnic groups came to this country?”

Matt: “Opportunity for a better life.”

Jordan: “And what was wrong with their life that they needed to seek a better opportunity?”

Matt: “Probably because life was bad in the old country.”

Jordan: “Bad like famine, war, genocide, and overt discrimination – de facto slavery. Lots of reasons for leaving – and none positive.”

Matt: “But those people left voluntarily. Blacks didn’t leave voluntarily. No other ethnic group has been enslaved.”

chinese-railroad-workersJordan: “Excuse me? What about the railroad workers from China in the mid-19th century. You think they came voluntarily? What about people facing death threats in their own country?  Do they qualify as coming here voluntarily?”

Matt: “Well, no. Guess, I never considered why other people came to the US.”

Jordan: “Alright, so we agree that blacks are not the only ethnic group that came to the US under extremely adverse circumstances and faced discrimination for many years. Have all those other groups remained at the bottom of the economic ladder?”

Matt: “No. Your examples sort of take away the argument that blacks faced special circumstances.”

Jordan: “Look, I’m not trying to beat up on blacks. I look at data. When say 9 out of 10 groups arrive under crappy circumstances and manage to improve their lot, you have to ask, why can’t #10?”

Matt: “One more issue that makes blacks different. The tribal culture of Africa.”

African tribal chiefJordan: “Huh?”

Matt: “In some tribes the chief had multiple wives.”

Jordan: “Were these tribal chiefs Mormons? I couldn’t resist. But so what if the chief had multiple wives. What am I missing?”

Matt: “Having multiple wives helps explain why there are so many black families where one mother has children from multiple fathers.”

Jordan: “You’ve lost me. Blacks have fewer single-father households because of some tribal custom?”

Matt: “That’s what I’ve been told.”

Jordan: “Then why in say 1960 was the percentage of black families with two parents two times what it is today?”

Matt: “Can’t answer that but refutes the argument about the tribal influence.”

Jordan: “I’ll tell you a simple fact that refutes all the reasons…really excuses…why blacks remain at the bottom of the economic ladder.”

Matt: “The fact is?”

Emancimation ProclamationJordan: “The fact is the Emancipation Proclamation was more than 150 years and 7+ generations ago. Seven generations. Give me one valid reason why a group can’t change in 150 years?”

Matt: “What about profiling? It’s biased against blacks?”

Jordan: “Really? How?”

Matt: “Because statistics show blacks are arrested more than whites.”

Jordan: “Do you hear black leaders or politicians ever asking why blacks might be arrested more frequently?”

Matt: “They claim the statistics and profiling are proof of discrimination.”

nba-logoJordan: “Using those kind of logic, does it mean the NBA is discriminating against white guys? What about the NFL? Blacks are disproportionately represented in both leagues.”

Matt: “You know what I mean.”

Jordan: “I know what you mean. First, let’s agree on what profiling is.”

Matt: “Behavior that is predicted based statistical patterns.”

Jordan: “Very good. Profiling targets groups of people based on previous patterns of behavior.”

Matt: “You mean like those ads that appear on my browser after I do a search on Google.”

Math formulaJordan: “Exactly. The politically correct explanation is ‘Based on algorithms, we believe you would be interested in…whatever.’ In reality, the ads are based on profiling.”

Matt: “In your former life, did you ever profile prospective buyers?”

Jordan: “In my marketing job, I was an early adopter of profiling. We used a combination of geography and demographics to predict interest in certain models of cars. We even introduced a specialty car based on ‘profiling.'”

Matt: “Was the launch successful?”

Jordan: “Sales exceeded our expectations…and was very profitable for the company.”

Matt: “So companies use profiling all the time. Why does profiling have such a bad name?”

blameJordan: “Claims of profiling are an easy excuse to blame someone else. Blame profiling rather than taking personal responsibility.”

Matt: “Don’t blacks still have an argument about being the subject of profiling…really negative profiling?”

Jordan: “If data indicated the black population committed less crime, do you think police would spend as much time profiling blacks?”

PoliceMatt: “Probably a lot less. I understand profiling is used to increase productivity. Why would police spend time with a certain group if the likelihood is low that someone is breaking the law.”

Jordan: “Why do you think police don’t profile older drivers as drug runners?”

Matt: “Because not many grannies are drug runners.”

Jordan: “Success. He understands.”

Matt: “Is that why you keep harping on personal responsibility if blacks want to succeed?”

Jordan: “Personal responsibility for individuals and personal responsibility for the black mirror-clipart_jpgcommunity. Both need to look in the mirror.”

Matt: “How long will the change take?”

Jordan: “Most every other ethnic group has realized major change in 2 generations — 3 generations at the most.”

Matt: “Who needs to lead the charge?”

Jordan: “My recommendation might seem counter-intuitive. I used to think a black man. I’ve changed my mind. I think a middle-aged black woman…but no media star.”

Matt: “Interesting idea. Why?”

Jordan: “Chances are the black woman has experienced some real challenges and woman-clipart-zyikqxpcEhardships in her life. She can relate to other black women. And I think the change needs to be led by black women, not black men.”

Matt: “What about black churches?”

Jordan: “Black women can encourage the ministers.”

Matt: “Won’t black men resent that a woman, really women, are taking the lead?”

Jordan: “Might. I also know with younger black men, the mother rules the roost.”

Matt: “So no one like Oprah or some black woman who’s been a star in government?”

Jordan: “From my perspective, the most effective change agent will be a middle-aged black woman. Exactly who I do not know but I know she’s out there.”

Matt: “I need to leave. Thanks for taking the time to help me with the book on the Revenge Revolution. Remember, one of these days you’re going to teach me how you approach solving problems.”

Jordan: “You have a deal. I enjoyed the conversation Matt. Good luck with the book.”

#167 Racism, Discrimination, Diversity Aren’t Relevant. Look in the Mirror.

31 Saturday Oct 2015

Posted by Jordan Abel in Causes of the Revolution, Education Issues, Societal Issues

≈ Leave a comment

First-time readers, this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020).  Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution.  More about Revenge Revolution and author, Entry #1.  List and general description of entries to date.

Note: most characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations.  Profile of characters.  You’ll catch on quickly.  Thanks for your time and interest…and comments. 

Scene: coffee shop near Jordan’s office.  Matt, a reporter for a major newspaper, had interviewed Jordan for an earlier series of articles. Jordan and Matt having a conversation about Matt’s upcoming book, the causes of the Revenge Revolution.  This general conversation starts Entry #165.

Matt: “Early on in the conversation you said there were three major factors 092615_2031_Characters11.pngcontributing to the Revenge Revolution. We’ve talked about two – policies of the so-called Republican Taliban and the unintended consequence of the NRA opposition to any gun control measures. The third was…”

Jordan: “…a perceived lack of commitment by the black community to improve.”

Matt: “That comment seems cruel.”

TurtleneckJordan: “There are always multiple issues leading to a revolution. One can argue whether these three are the most important but I think the issues had a major influence.”

Matt: “Talk more about why you think there was, maybe still is, a lack of commitment to improve by the black community. Seems so controversial.”

Jordan: “The statement probably is controversial, at least to a lot of people. To me the statement is the elephant in the room that people, especially politicians and the black community, don’t want to address.”

Matt: “How did you support your conclusion?”

Jordan: “There was no preconceived conclusion so I had nothing to support. Reaching a conclusion…or at least trying to reach a conclusion was intentional but there was no preconceived notion about what the conclusion would be.”

Matt: “You think you were objective in the analysis? I mean, reaching a conclusion about a segment of society seems like…you know, seems like pushing the envelope of objectivity.”

Jordan: “To me the analysis was straightforward.”

Matt: “Let’s not do it today but sometime soon I would really appreciate understanding your approach to problem solving.”

Jordan: “Glad to share the methodology with you. There’s no magic to it, really.”

Matt: “OK. Understanding your approach will be helpful for me. Apologies for the sidebar. Back to the topic at hand.”

Jordan: “The first question I asked myself was simple. ‘After 150+ years since the ladderEmancipation Proclamation, why are blacks still at the bottom rung of the economic ladder?'”

Matt: “Many people will claim the reason is discrimination, racism, profiling…and stuff like that. And some claim the culture in the native land is different from the US.”

Jordan: “Here’s the fallacy in those arguments. Every ethnic group in this country has faced the same issues.”

Matt: “But has the discrimination been as severe as it has been for blacks?”

Jordan: “When people claim other groups haven’t suffered as much, I show them some pictures. I carry one on my phone just to make a point.”

No Irish Blacks DogsMatt: “Mmmm. Sign says ‘No dogs, no blacks and no Irish.'”

Jordan: “And you can find similar examples for every other ethnic group, whether in the US, in England…you pick the country.”

Matt: “So then I take it you asked “Why have the other ethnic groups progressed while blacks have stayed at the bottom?’ Right?”

Jordan: “Exactly. The focus was trying to understand why.”

Matt: “Did you conclude why society stopped discriminating against other groups?”

Jordan: “Society has not stopped discriminating against other groups. Whenever…I should say almost always…a group in the minority is discriminated against.”

Matt: “Never thought about discrimination quite like that. I see your point. In a community of mostly blacks, I might be discriminated against.”

Jordan: “I’m not claiming the discrimination is always intentional. But discrimination happens.”

bbq pork 5Matt: “Such as you going to a conference and the lunch options are a pulled pork BBQ sandwich and Caesar salad with bacon chips in the dressing.”

Jordan: “You’d think that would not happen at conferences but it does.”

Matt: “So what do you do?”

Jordan: “Smile and figure out what I can eat and move on. I might send a note to the event coordinator as a reminder. I understand most of these incidents are unintentional or out of ignorance.”

Matt: “Do you think a diversity or sensitivity program would help?”

Jordan: “Probably. But diversity is not a critical factor in making the kind of change we’re talking about.”

Diversity ProgramsMatt: “Why not? Many school systems have diversity programs.”

Jordan: “True. Diversity programs in local schools also have drawbacks. My view is pushing diversity programs in schools hurts rather than helps the black community.”

Matt: “Why?”

Jordan: “Diversity programs require moving kids from one school to a different school. If the local school were diverse there would be no need to transport the kids.”

Matt: “And moving means busing.”

School Bus 2Jordan: “Busing means kids have less time to study, less time to play, less time for after-school programs…and irony of all ironies, all the interaction of kids on the bus is with kids who are ‘not diverse’, which is the exact opposite of what the program is designed to accomplish.”

Matt: “Does anyone ever think about what you just described?”

Jordan: “Either not in depth, or if they have thought about, they don’t talk about it because it’s not politically correct.”

Matt: “See what you mean.”

Jordan: “What’s even less PC is calculating how many parents who focus on their kid’s education pull the kids out of public school.”

Matt: “Is there any value in busing?”

Jordan: “Some aspects are probably positive. But the negatives seem to far outweigh the positives. And who knows the true cost to taxpayers.”

Matt: “Listen, I need more coffee. Tell me you conclusion so I can think about it over the break.”

mirror-clipart_jpgJordan: “OK. The black community needs to look in the mirror and begin taking personal responsibility for their kids education. Every other ethnic group has educated their children as a way of getting off the bottom rung.”

Matt: “What about the effects of slavery?”

Jordan: “Slavery is an excuse and not an inhibitor to taking personal responsibility. Let’s go get a refill.”

#166 NRA Contribution to the Revenge Revolution

24 Saturday Oct 2015

Posted by Jordan Abel in Causes of the Revolution, Societal Issues

≈ Leave a comment

First-time readers, this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020).  Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution.  More about Revenge Revolution and author, Entry #1.  List and general description of entries to date.

Note: most characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations.  Profile of characters.  You’ll catch on quickly.  Thanks for your time and interest…and comments. 

Scene: coffee shop near Jordan’s office.  Matt, a reporter for a major newspaper, had interviewed Jordan for an earlier series of articles. Jordan and Matt finished a side conversation about VW and returned to a conversation about Matt’s upcoming book.

092615_2031_Characters11.pngMatt: “Tell me why you think the NRA contributed to the Revenge Revolution.”

Jordan: “I don’t think it was a conscious effort. Really an unintended consequence.”

Matt: “OK, help me understand your logic.”

Jordan: “The logic is simple. The NRA became power-hungry and tossed rational Turtleneckthinking to the wind.”

Matt: “In what way?”

Jordan: “At one time the NRA supported gun-control legislation. Actually the NRA helped write gun-control legislation.”

Matt: “Really? I didn’t know that. What changed?”

ReaganJordan: “The NRA would like you not to know they supported gun control. But what changed is adoption of Ronald Reagan’s mantra of ‘Government is the problem, not the solution.'”

Matt: “So the change happened late 1970’s, early 1980’s?”

Jordan: “A palace coup at the NRA. Emphasis by the new leadership changed from responsible gun ownership to any weapon you want because the government is going to take your gun away.”

Matt: “Isn’t that description a bit harsh? What about the ownership rights under the 2nd Amendment?”

Jordan: “What about the rights? For 100 years the NRA interprets the 2nd Amendment one way. Then the new leadership decides to reinterpret the Constitution because they 2nd amendmentthink the previous interpretation is too liberal.”

Matt: “I suppose one can argue why the NRA changed interpretation but how did the NRA contribute to the Revenge Revolution?”

Jordan: “Under new leadership the NRA resisted any effort to restrict gun ownership, any effort to have effective background checks and any effort to have registration of firearms.”

Matt: “The 2nd Amendment says people should have a right to own firearms.”

Jordan: “Most everyone agrees with that statement.”

Matt: “Then what is the issue with ownership?”

ElephantsJordan: “The type of firearms. No one needs a 50-caliber rifle.”

Matt: “Maybe there’s a herd of wild elephants about to attack.”

Jordan: “I know you’re trying to be funny. But have you ever fired a 50-caliber rifle? Ever fired even an M-16 in semi-automatic mode?”

50_cal_rifle_by_bebop953Matt: “No. What’s it like? You were in the military, right?”

Jordan: “Yes. Trust me, firing these weapons is not like a video game. The most polite term I can think of is ‘scary.’ Really scary. You’d be shocked at the destruction just one of these weapons can cause.”

Matt: “But, as you said, the military has these weapons.”

Jordan: “The military has these weapons for a single purpose. To blow the crap out of everything in its way. These weapons are not toys. The weapons are designed for one purpose – destroy. These are not ‘sporting arms’ for fun and games. The weapons are meant to destroy – things and people.”

Matt: “Are you saying by allowing so many people to have these kind of weapons, the NRA gave the upper hand to those who started the Revenge Revolution?”

Jordan: “Think about who started the Revenge Revolution. It wasn’t the upper 1%. It wasn’t the upper 10% or even the upper 50%. The Revolution was started by those 092615_2031_Characters8.gifwho worked hard but whose real income had declined for many years. Lots of those people had voted Republican.”

Matt: “Then they realized how much they had been shafted.”

Jordan: “And guess who had most of the firearms?”

Matt: “What about the police…and even the military? They have all these weapons.”

Jordan: “True. But they don’t have the manpower. Once the Revolution started, it spread quickly.”

social-media-iconsMatt: “The benefits and bane of social media.”

Jordan: “Really no way to stop it. And the role of the police and military is not to kill a bunch of people just because there is some political upheaval.”

Matt: “Plus, there were too many outbreaks in too many locations to control.”

Jordan: “The question then is ‘Would the Revenge Revolution have been different without all the heavy-duty firearms in citizens’ hands?'”

Matt: “Your take is what?”

Jordan: “I think the Revenge Revolution would have happened anyway. My point was the NRA was a contributing factor, not the sole cause. The Revolution might have taken longer and the reforms not as pronounced but there still would have been a Revenge Revolution.”

CongressMatt: “Shortly after the Revolution, there was an election and a revamped Congress. Congress then passes gun control legislation.”

Jordan: “Passes legislation with little resistance from gun owners. Why? Because I think the gun owners saw how close the country came to a bloody revolt. Almost another Civil War but with really nasty firearms. And the gun owners also realized what folly the NRA had been promoting.”

Matt: “How ironic for the NRA. The group the NRA relied on for support came back to bite it.”

Jordan: “Let’s take a break.”

#165 Republican Taliban

17 Saturday Oct 2015

Posted by Jordan Abel in Causes of the Revolution, Gov't Policy, Possible Solutions, Societal Issues

≈ 2 Comments

First-time readers, this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020).  Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution.  More about Revenge Revolution and the author, Entry #1.  List and general description of entries to date. 

Note: most characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations.  Profile of characters.  You’ll catch on quickly.  Thanks for your time and interest…and comments. 

Scene: coffee shop near office. Jordan meets Matt, a reporter for a major newspaper. Matt interviewed Jordan for an earlier series of articles. Jordan and Matt have finished side conversation about VW. Returning to conversation about Matt’s upcoming book.

Jordan: “Alright, Matt. Let’s talk about your book. What’s the title?”

092615_2031_Characters11.pngMatt: “No title yet but the theme is whether the behavior of fundamentalists contributed to the Revenge Revolution in the US.”

Jordan: “You mean fundamentalists like we consider the Taliban to be fundamentalists?”

Matt: “Yes, but the groups I’m focusing on are in the US, so really no Taliban.”

TurtleneckJordan: “What about Republican fundamentalists who refused to compromise and govern. Would they qualify?”

Matt: “If you think so. What I’m looking for is individual’s opinion on what groups and/or events they consider precipitated the Revenge Revolution.”

Jordan: “As you know, revolutions don’t just happen. Over time the populous gets frustrated and angry about a series of events.”

Matt: “Then one day, an event – even a seemingly small event – puts them over the top and voila, a revolution.”

Jordan: “I tell you what would help me – picking a point in time where events really began to change my thinking.”

ScaleMatt: “When I talk to people about such events, most mention 2015 as a tipping point. A tipping point not for the revolution but for them beginning to think differently.”

Jordan: “Any particular event in 2015 mentioned more frequently?”

Matt: “No. People just remember the year when they scratched their head and asked, ‘What is this or that group doing?”

question.jpgJordan: “I agree. 2015 was a year of childish actions by some people who should have been acting like adults. Nothing catastrophic like a president being assassinated. Just a lot of events that really started to gnaw at me.”

Matt: “OK. What events are on your list?”

Jordan: “Three come to mind right away. #1 the so-called conservative Republicans forcing out John Boehner as Speaker of the House, and then having no plans to govern. #2 Refusal by the NRA and many of the same Republicans to consider some type of gun regulation, even after a number of mass killings. #3, which didn’t get much publicity but an example of people not taking responsibility. The gathering in Washington of blacks to mark the 2Oth anniversary of the Million Man March.”

Matt: “I’d like to hear more about each one. Take them in order.”

RantJordan: “The behavior of the Republicans…more like Republicants or even Republirants…baffles me and apparently many other people.”

Matt: “I think I know but what behavior was so troubling?”

Jordan: “Refusal to listen to, let alone accept, another opinion. From the perspective of those Republicants, there’s one view of the world – theirs.”

Matt: “Just like the Taliban?”

Jordan: “A good name for the group is the Taliban Republicans.”

Matt: “I’m certain they would prefer the label conservative Republicans.”

Jordan: “Probably so but the group is anything but conservative. Despite claims to the contrary, Republicans’ fiscal policies have increased the national debt significantly. debtReagan and Bush 43 added far more to the national debt than Clinton and much more than Obama, despite Obamacare and bailing out the banks. Plus, the republicans absolutely opposed any effort to reduce carbon footprint. ”

Matt: “Aren’t most of the members religious conservatives – fundamentalist Christians?”

Jordan: “Guess that group forgot to read the Bible. There are repeated references and mitzvot – commandments – to save the earth.”

Matt: “What else about the Taliban Republicans?”

Jordan: “Refusal to govern. At least the real Taliban makes an attempt to govern. The Taliban Republicans seemed to have forgotten, they were elected to run the country, not shut it down. The US population is 350+ million. Not everyone thinks the same way.”

Matt: “But the Taliban Republicans…I guess I shouldn’t use that term…believe the majority of people who elected them support their Taliban-like behavior.”

Jordan: “That might be true for some districts. And you asked what I thought caused bossy-motherthe Revenge Revolution. Well, a major contributor is people who act and think that their way is the only right way. No consideration for a different views and no compromising because compromising would tarnish their principles. Just like the Taliban.”

Matt: “You mentioned forcing out John Boehner as a key event. Why?”

Jordan: “The Taliban Republicans focused on forcing him out with no plan to govern afterwards. It is one thing to disagree. But if you disagree you need an alternative solution. Anyone who’s run an organization knows practical alternatives are critical…and one needs to be willing to work with others to develop alternatives. Just saying no is not a realistic solution.”

Matt: “Why do you think the Taliban Republicans didn’t propose some practical alternatives…or at least be willing to compromise?”

Jordan: “Really want to know why?”

Matt: “Yes, please.”

Jordan: “Because virtually all of them, maybe all of them, are lawyers. And for many lawyers, events involving people who have a different view are a zero-sum game – a winner and a loser. Most lawyers have never run organizations where you have to compromise. You just can’t walk out of a courtroom and say gee, lost that one. When you run an organization, all involved live with the decision.”

Matt: “But aren’t most members of Congress lawyers?”

open-mindedJordan: “Yes. And listen to members of Congress who’ve been around a while. Those members talk about when a light bulb when on in their head.  They started to get things done when they learned the art of compromising.”

Matt: “Compromise is a word not in the lexicon of Taliban Republicans.”

Jordan: “That’s my point. Let’s take a break, then address the other examples.”

#164 VW: Throw the Bums Out!

10 Saturday Oct 2015

Posted by Jordan Abel in Corporate Policy, Gov't Policy, Societal Issues

≈ Leave a comment

First-time readers, this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020).  Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution.  More about Revenge Revolution and the author, Entry #1.  List and general description of entries to date. 

Note: most characters appear in a number of entries, with many entries building on previous conversations.  Profile of characters.  You’ll catch on quickly.  Thanks for your time and interest…and comments. 

Scene: coffee shop near office. Jordan meets Matt, a reporter for a major newspaper. Matt interviewed Jordan for an earlier series of articles.  This entry a continuation of #163.

092615_2031_Characters11.pngMatt: “I know we agreed to talk about the book. But during the break a couple more questions about VW came to mind.”

Jordan: “OK, but not too many.”

Matt: “Just in case POTUS’ office might have called you for advice…this is all hypothetical of course…”

Jordan: “Of course.”

vwMatt: “…what would you have told POTUS after hearing the congressional testimony of VW’s head of US operations?”

Jordan: “You mean Michael Horn?”

Matt: “Yes, Mr. Horn.”

Jordan: “Did you ever listen to Car Talk on NPR with Tom and Ray Magliozzi?”

Matt: “All guys listened to Car Talk. Great show.”

TurtleneckJordan: “And what did Tom say when an answer was obviously wrong or farfetched?”

Matt: “B-o-o-o-o-o-gus.”

Jordan: “I think Mr. Horn’s explanation to the congressional committee qualifies as B-O-G-U-S.”

Matt: “Why so?”

Jordan: “Horn, excuse me Mr. Horn, claimed none of the senior management at VW knew about the software program override. Only a couple of rogue engineers were responsible.”

Matt: “What’s wrong with that explanation? GM said only a couple of mid-level engineers knew about the ignition switch design flaw.”

Jordan: “The ignition switch for GM…or any auto company…is what I would call a ‘non-issue’ part. I mean, what’s there to get excited about? Yes, and I know GM should have checked the specifications when the part was redesigned.”

Matt: “But the VW diesel program was much higher profile than some ignition switch. So there would have been more scrutiny. Right?”

Jordan: “VW bet the farm on its new diesel engine technology. VW claimed the new engine technology would meet all emissions standards worldwide without the supplemental spray system used by Mercedes and BMW.”

casino-1374303Matt: “See your point. If the company’s future is riding on making the diesel program successful, the program gets lots of attention and scrutiny.”

Jordan: “VW is a very top-down organization – not unusual for a German company. The chances that a few lower-level engineers initiated the emissions override program without approval from senior management is laughable. Even if they did initiate the solution, how would they hid it from others inside VW and from vendors? And tests at the proving grounds? Someone checked to make sure the override system kicked in when cars were tested for emissions in Europe and in the US. Just think about all the states that test for emissions. The override was designed to work with a range of equipment. And no one knew?”

Matt: “You really think the CEO knew about the software program?”

Jordan: “Here’s what I think. The CEO knew the new diesel engines did not meet emissions standards. And the CEO directed engineering to fix the problem. And this is what doesn’t pass the smell test, the CEO says to the engineers, in effect, ‘Fix the problem but don’t give me any details about the solution.'”

Matt: “The CEO might be technically right claiming he did not know the details.”

gangster-cartoon-clip-art-540pxJordan: “That’s like a mafia don, after telling Guido to take care of so-and-so, claiming he did not know what happened.”

Matt: “At some point, the CEO has to ask, ‘Is the problem fixed? And he asks the follow-up question, ‘Does the solution meet all emissions standards worldwide?”

Jordan: “If the answer is ‘yes, it meets all standards for testing,’ or similar words, then the CEO needs to ask, ‘What about standards while driving?'”

Matt: “It’s easy to be a Monday-morning quarterback and say, ‘you could have…’ or ‘you should have…’ Are you being fair? Are you being a Monday-morning quarterback?”

Jordan: “Matt, the questions I’m asking are so basic that anyone with a brain the size of a pea would ask them. As CEO you bet the future of the entire company on one technology and you expect us to believe you don’t probe to find out if it really works?”

Matt: “His answer doesn’t seem logical.”

money questionJordan: “Here’s another test of my rationale. Tonight tell your wife you are taking all the money out of the 401k’s and other accounts. Then you are going to Las Vegas and play poker because you have a new way beat the odds. Then see how many questions she asks.”

Matt: “I cannot imagine how many. Alright, a couple more questions, then we’ll talk about the book. VW said the fix could take a couple of years. Also, VW said it would not buy back any cars from existing owners. Thoughts?”

Jordan: “More chutzpah from VW. First comment – tell VW and the owners the cars cannot be registered in any state without the fix. Emissions are 40x the target level and a safety and environmental hazard.”

smoke-from-vehicles-clipart-i17Matt: “For VW diesels owners, not being able to register seems unfair.”

Jordan: “VW buys them a new car or provides a rental at no cost until their car meets emissions standards.”

Matt: “VW said it would not buy back any cars.”

Jordan: “What I said to POTUS…hypothetically, of course…was TS. VW knowingly broke the law. And not just one year but 3-4 years. The cars have 40x times allowable emissions. Get VW owners a new car or rental until the problem is fixed. Criminals do not get to make the rules.”

Matt: “I know emissions are a problem but people drive old cars with high emissions. What about your Miata? What about cars from the 1950’s and 1960’s?”

Jordan: “All those cars met emissions standards when introduced. Previous model year cars have always been grandfathered for safety and emissions standards. Beside the number of cars without emissions equipment is small…and owners don’t drive many miles.”

Matt: “Back to the really tough question – criminal intent. Do you charge the VW exec’s with a crime?”

jailJordan: “Absolutely. Some of the guys at the top need to go to jail. I cannot speak about the guilt of Mr. Horn. There were several layers of management above him and he was not calling the shots.”

Matt: “If the US guy is innocent, that means prosecuting through the EC or in German courts. What’s the likelihood of a conviction?”

Jordan: “VW exec’s need to feel real pain. Otherwise they will continue to give the finger to regulators in the US and Europe. My hypothetical suggestion to POTUS was initiate an all-out effort by DOJ, EPA and the state DA’s to bring the VW exec’s to trial. It needs to be a public trial. No plea bargaining. No consent decree with a fine. Make it as painful as possible.”

Matt: “What about saving the VW brand? All the dealers; all the customers and suppliers?”

Egg on FaceJordan: “Cleaning house at the top of VW and jail time for those involved is the only way to save the company.”

Matt: “As the old Brooklyn Dodger fans used to shout, ‘Throw the bums out.'”

(We’ll talk about Matt’s book the next session)

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