Category Archives: Stupid Is as Stupid Does

#410: Republicans Accelerating the Revenge Revolution

04 Sunday Apr 2021

Posted by in Back Asswards Thinking, Gov't Policy, Societal Issues, Stupid Is as Stupid Does, Uncategorized

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Readers: The entries in this blog are built around the assumption there will be a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1. 

Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether a revolution in the US is possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Entry #400 was the most recent “sense check.” 

ENTRY #410 BEGINS: Entries #407-#409 focused on the need for and how to begin rebuilding the Republican Party. Legislation proposed or enacted by several states has left little doubt about the need for a new Republican Party.

After losing the 2020 presidential election, did Republicans throughout the US focus on offering new ideas to attract voters?  No!  Instead of expanding the appeal of the Party, Republicans made being a Republican even more illogical for all but the hard right.  Since the election, Republicans have focused on making voting more difficult.  Well, making it more difficult only if you’re not white.  As if restricting voting weren’t enough for Jim Crow, the Georgia legislature passed and the Governor signed a bill that allows the legislature to discard election results in Georgia counties that the legislators don’t like.

Oh, that county voted for a Democrat?  Well, there must be fraud in that county so let’s throw out the results and declare the Republican the winner.  Henceforth, we Republican legislators think it is our right to decide who wins and who loses elections in Georgia. You voters, especially “those people,” are not worthy of deciding.

And while we’re at it, why don’t we make it a crime in Georgia for you to share some water with one of “those people” who is standing in line to vote.  Gee, we almost forgot.  Want an absentee ballot?  Let’s make getting an absentee ballot more difficult, especially if you live in the wrong neighborhood.  And then let’s restrict the number of drop-off locations. 

If you decide to protest, even the most mild of protests, we’ll arrest you.  You know, we legislators had to arrest that Black state representative who knocked on the door while the esteemed Georgia governor was signing this necessary legislation.  You know, don’t you, she’s a terrorist!  She’s more dangerous than any of the patriots who tried to save the country by invading the US Capitol January 6.  I, mean, she wasn’t armed but she had that look of evil in her eye.  She could have killed everyone in the room with a single swipe of her hand.  She deserved to be arrested, handcuffed and booked.

Like many citizens, I was frustrated, but not surprised by these actions in Georgia.  I also was prompted to ask myself, “Who was the last Republican president that had some ideas to improve the country for everyone?“  Trump? No. Bush 43? No. Remember Bush 43 try to privatize Social Security. Bush 41? Maybe but nothing stands out.

Reagan? No. Reagan was all about tax cuts for the wealthy and trashing those mythical welfare queens. Remember, according to Reagan, government is not the solution; government is the problem. Gerald Ford? OK guy but he was really in cleanup mode as president. Most of his accomplishments were as Speaker of the House.

Whoa Bubba, Now, we’re back to Nixon.  Yes Nixon, the Republican president who resigned in disgrace and was pardoned by his successor.  As bad as Nixon was for lots of reasons, he also signed legislation creating the Environmental Protection Agency. He proposed affirmative action in the Federal government and began diplomatic relations with China.  Much of the US population benefitted from those actions. 

One has to go back to Eisenhower for a legislation by a Republican that benefitted the vast majority of Americans and fundamentally changed society – creation of the Interstate Highway system. 

Given the nearly 50-year lack of Republican presidents shepherding meaningful legislation that benefitted the populous, why should anyone be surprised about the behavior of today’s Republicans? The problem for Republicans is the core of the Party is old white guys who spend the day watching Fox.  These guys are dying and the younger generations aren’t buying the same line of BS.

Given the obvious outcome of this approach, has the attitude of Republican leadership been to try and change the message of the Republican Party? Try and make the message more consistent with Eisenhower and Nixon? No, let'[s not change. Let’s just double down on voter suppression of anyone who doesn’t watch Fox or isn’t white.

A good timely example is Republican’s opposition to the Biden administration proposal to radically upgrade travel and communications infrastructure in the US.  The proposal has widespread approval ratings among the voters, with some polls indicating 50% support among Republican voters.  So, what does Mitch McConnell, ranking Republican in the Senate proclaim?  The hell with what voters want. I, Mitch McConnell, king proclaim no Republican will support this proposal.   Mitch, here’s a piece of advice, go see a proctologist and have your head relocated to the proper spot on your body.

The strategy of McConnell and the Republican Party on the infrastructure proposal, climate change and many other proposals that could benefit a wide swath of the US population is like trying to bail out a leaky boat with a coffee cup. The problem is the leak continues to get bigger. You might stave off the inevitable for a while, but the boat is going to sing sink. 

Republican actions are also likely to increase the likelihood and even intensify the Revenge Revolution. People who are suppressed are not going to stand by idly by, especially if they’ve experienced not being suppressed.  Just in case you Republicans haven’t heard, Jim Crow left town.

You Republicans also are starting to lose the business community. Major League baseball announced the 2021 All-Star game will be relocating outside Georgia.  Companies with HQ in Georgia and Texas, which is in the process of passing Georgia-like legislation, have publicly stated strong opposition the vote-suppression measures.  Among a long list of companies are Coca-Cola, Delta Airlines, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, Dell Computer and a growing list of others.

As far as members of the working class who supported Trump and Republicans, Biden has done more for the working class in less than 3 months in office than Trump did in four years. At some point, and I thought it would be a long time ago, the working class is going to wake up and realize how little the Republican Party has done for them. An egregious example of how Trump and the Republican Party screwed the little guy is detailed in a NYT article titled “How Trump Steered Supporters into Unwitting Donations.”

So, who’s going to be left in the Republican Party?  Some old white guys and the younger white supremacists.  Principled Republicans have no place to go and Republican leadership in Congress is unwilling to recognize reality.  Democrats need to reach out to the more principled Republicans. Most Republicans in Congress are likely to resist the offer, but at some point the Romney‘s, Murkowski‘s and Collins’ of the world will begin to acknowledge and accept their responsibility to form a new principled Republicans Party and that Democrats can help, even if behind the scenes.

Booklets you might find interesting: 

#407 Republicans to Constituents: “Let Them Eat Cake”

07 Sunday Mar 2021

Posted by in Societal Issues, Stupid Is as Stupid Does, Uncategorized

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Readers: The entries in this blog are built around the assumption there will be a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1. 

Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether a revolution in the US is possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Entry #400 was the most recent “sense check.” 

Some of the entries are part of a series.  Several series are available as easy-to-read booklets for download.  See list at end of this entry.  

ENTRY 407 BEGINS: I promise this will be the last entry about the stupidity of the Republican Party. Well, I hope this will be the last entry.

Why spend time on this issue? Many will say, “Who cares if Republicans do stupid things? Let the Republican Party fade into oblivion.“

As frustrating as it seems sometimes, the US democracy does need two viable political parties. Without two, we the people face an increased likelihood of an even more severe revolution. The old adage, “power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely,” is true and applies to Republicans and Democrats. Having two viable parties keeps the power of both parties somewhat in check.

What’s happening now is an implosion of the Republican Party. Actions by most Republicans in Congress are 180° from the people who elected them.

Since the signing of the Civil Rights Act and the Voting Rights Act during LBJ’s administration, the Republican Party has seen an influx of lower-income white voters, especially in the south. At the same time, many black voters have shifted to the Democratic Party.

Fast forward to today. Where are the voters who shifted to the Republican Party in the 1960’s/1970’s? They’re still Republicans as are many of their children and grandchildren.

How are these voters faring in the pandemic? While the number of people being inoculated is increasing, new COVID-19 infections remain above the highs of last summer. Further, the economy continues to languish with about 9.5 million jobs lost compared to pre-pandemic levels.

The job loss has fallen disproportionately on lower-income workers, many in the service sector. Even though some service sectors are starting to recover, claims for new unemployment remain extraordinarily high by historic standards. What’s not being counted in the unemployment rate are the many people who have left the labor market since the beginning of the pandemic. Why? Many have given up on finding another job.

Soon after taking office, the Biden administration formally proposed what could be characterized as a 2nd-phase pandemic “relief program.” Key provisions of the program as proposed included extending unemployment benefits and direct payments to middle and lower-income families. The proposal also included raising the minimum wage from $7.25 to $15.00/hr., the first increase in 12 years. The proposal had wide support among Democrat and Republican voters.

So what do Republicans in Congress do? Support funding to make the vaccine more available? Support funding to help localities open schools? Support extending unemployment benefits? Support increasing the minimum wage? Support any part of the bill to help their constituents, many of whom favored the legislation? Of course not. The Republicans response was, in effect, “Let them eat cake.“

In the House, every Republican voted against the bill. In the Senate, every Republican voted against the bill, even after the provision for a higher minimum wage had been removed. The House bill was tweaked in the Senate and finally passed 50-49 because a Republican was absent. Otherwise the vice president would have cast the tie-breaking vote.

It is hard to over emphasize how stupid the Republican’s response to this relief package has been. We all know what happened to Marie Antoinette after she uttered the phrase, “Let them eat cake.” Does no one in the Republican Party read history? Pardon me for the rhetorical question.

Where will these Republican voters go in the 2022 elections? While some lower-income Republican voters will stick with the Party no matter what, others will look at their pocketbooks. Why would you vote for someone who refused to offer some financial relief to the working stiffs? Money does talk.

What about Republicans who truly are concerned about certain economic and social principles? Will they continue to support the party of Trump wannabes? Even the Wall Street Journal has dumped on Trump, blaming him for the loss of the presidency and the loss in the Senate.

The frustrated lower-income workers could turn to the far-right groups. What used to be considered fringe groups have become more mainstream with many Republican voters.

As stated in several earlier entries in this blog, the far-right groups present a real danger to the US democracy. The groups can employ guerilla tactics to attack members of Congress, the judiciary and others who the groups believe oppose their views. Guerilla attacks are incredibly difficult to prevent and ideal to create angst among the populous.

The solution to the dilemma of the Republicans? As crazy as it sounds, the Democrats might need to help Republicans re-form their party. And the effort should begin sooner than later to help mitigate the potential breadth and depth of the 5th US Revolution, the Revenge Revolution. More ideas in the next entry.

Booklets you might find interesting: 

#406 Republican Clown Show Continues

01 Monday Mar 2021

Posted by in Societal Issues, Stupid Is as Stupid Does, Uncategorized

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Readers: The entries in this blog are built around the assumption there will be a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1. 

Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether a revolution in the US is possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Entry #400 was the most recent “sense check.” 

Some of the entries are part of a series.  Several series are available as easy-to-read booklets for download.  See list at end of this entry.  

ENTRY 406 BEGINS: I was hoping with the Biden administration being in place and Trump sequestered at Mar-a-Lago, some Republicans inside the Beltway would start acting rationally.  A few Republican senators voted to convict Trump of inciting insurrection, and with the impeachment trial over it seemed possible Republicans in Congress might actually start to function.

Alas, not to be. How naïve or stupid of me to have such thoughts. Ironically, one of the least likely Republicans that I suspected to act rationally seems to be one of the few, and maybe the only Republican in the House that seems to be focusing on governing. Of course, some Republican leaders are trashing that person but what do ethics and upholding the Constitution mean to self-proclaimed conservative Republicans?

And, who is the pillar of integrity? Well, the term “pillar” might be a bit of an exaggeration but the person is certainly a stand out among Republicans. That person is none other than Liz Cheney, representative from Wyoming and, yes, daughter of the former vice president.

In trashing Liz, 3rd ranking Republican in the House, other Republicans have also trashed father. My, my little boys, how quickly you forget all of what her father did to support conservatives.

So the little-boy Republicans are willing to throw under the bus a family that has served Republicans since at least the Ford administration, yes since the 1970s. And who have the little-boy Republicans chosen instead?

You know, that long-time stalwart of conservatism. The man who has brought honesty, integrity and true leadership to Republicans.  Surely, you don’t mean Donald Trump?

Yes, the Trump who soon is likely to be indicted for tax fraud. Who is likely to be indicted for insurance fraud, money laundering and who knows what else.  Little-boy Republicans just threw integrity under the bus for ineptness and dishonesty. Seems like a good trade, right?

Why are Republicans continuing to act so stupid? I really don’t know. The strategy will shrink the appeal of the party, not expand it.  Gerrymandering can only go so far to rig elections. And efforts to suppress people voting don’t seem to have much support with a Republican-packed Supreme Court. So why continue to support Trump?

This past weekend CPAC, aka Conservatives Parading as Clowns, was a true circus. No one wore masks and everyone seemed to bow to the former leader. Hail Trump!

In addition, Republicans in Congress are nearly unanimous in opposing the $15 minimum wage. You’d think that maybe some Republicans might listen to their constituents, many of whom earn the minimum wage or very low wages and who strongly support the minimum-wage increase. Oh well, welcome to the Republican Party.

I’m going to stop at this point. No sense in beating a dead horse. But one thing is for certain.  The US needs a credible conservative party. And the way we’re headed right now, the Republicans are incapable of fulfilling that role. Stay tuned.

Booklets you might find interesting: 

#403 Republicans Taking Double Dose of Stupid Pills

31 Sunday Jan 2021

Posted by in Post Trump Presidency, Societal Issues, Stupid Is as Stupid Does, Uncategorized

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Readers: The entries in this blog are built around the assumption there will be a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1. Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether a revolution in the US is possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Entry #400 was the most recent “sense check.” Some of the entries are part of a series.  Several series are available as easy-to-read booklets for download.  See list at end of this entry. START ENTRY #403: Republicans, especially in the US Senate, apparently have doubled their dosage of stupid pills. In a move likely to horrify historians and likely to please Putin, all but a handful of Republicans senators voted in essence to let Trump off the hook for inciting the crowd to storm the Capitol. What would Republican senators have done following World War II? Would they say, “Let the Nazis who killed millions of Jews and others off the hook because the war’s over?  Let’s not waste our time with that Nuremberg Trial.”  Apparently by Republican standards, once the conflict ends everyone left standing goes home without repercussions. Republicans have been saying, “What’s the use of impeaching Trump? Trump’s left office.  Just let him be.”  While not saying it directly, these Republicans are implying that it’s no big deal that during the attempted coup of the US government, only five people were killed, none of whom was a member of Congress.  And no real damage was done.  Only Democratic offices were ransacked.  To help divert attention from the sedition by Trump, Republicans have focused on trying to block legislation proposed by President Biden.  The same Republicans are also complaining that Biden is signing too many Executive Orders. “He is turning into a dictator!”  Of course, when Trump issued Executive Orders he was operating like a smart businessman and helping the country. Actions by Republicans have no logic, unless you’re afraid of Trump and/or afraid of the hard right.  If you weren’t afraid, then why would seemingly every move be to mollify the right-wing white supremacists?  Obviously the Republicans in Congress don’t read and probably only get their news from Fox or some internet site.  But why should Republicans continue to fall in line with a guy who has no power?  What’s in it for the members of Congress?  Who’s paying them to support Trump?  When the details of a few state-level investigations of Trump are revealed, likely the evidence will be overwhelming that Trump was tied financially to the Russians.  Are the Russians supporting Republicans in Congress as well? Without some type of money trail, none of the actions by Republicans makes sense.  Even the two titular heads of the Republican Party, Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy, have relinquished the idea of upholding the Constitution and bowed to Trump’s wishes, or maybe Putin’s wishes.   McCarthy even traveled to Mar-a-Lago to beg Orange Man’s forgiveness. What do the Republicans’ actions mean for the country? And what do the actions mean for the 5th US Revolution, the Revenge Revolution? Republicans might be able to slow Biden’s legislation in Congress.  Republicans are already taking actions at the state level to make voting more difficult.  However, try as they might, Republicans will not be able stop a growing movement among citizens to address two major societal issues: (i) climate change; (ii) economic inequity. Just like the 4th US Revolution for in the late 60s, early 70s, the younger generations are going to force societal change. The climate change movement is already affecting decisions in the business community. Energy behemoths are moving away from fossil fuel toward renewables – Exxon, BP and Shell are notable examples. Auto companies are shifting more production to electric. GM announced that by 2035, all of its cars and trucks worldwide will be electric. Other auto companies are likely to follow suit. The pathway to address economic inequity is less clear. However, going forward all economic policy decisions, monetary and fiscal, will be viewed with the economic equity microscope. A major target for more economic equity will be reversing the 2017 Trump tax cuts, aka wealth transfer to the already wealthy.  While passing legislation to reverse the tax cuts may stall in the current Congress, given the growing block of votes by the younger generations, the 2017 legislation is likely to be reversed not later than by the Congress elected in 2024. What is going to happen to the right-wing supremacist groups courted by many Republicans – Proud Boys and 3%’ers? A more aggressive and focused US Justice Department will begin to break up these groups.  An example is for some of those arrested for storming the Capitol.  Federal judges in Washington have overridden state or local judges who allowed the defendants released on their own recognizance.    The danger from these right-wing groups is still clear and present.  Members of these groups could operate in small cells or even alone and attempt to assassinate high-profile figures – Democratic Party officials, federal and state, and federal judges who rule against the right-wing groups and/or against Trump.  Even if the right-wing groups break the association with Trump, the danger from small cells still exists. As horrible as the assassinations would be, like the tragedies of the 1960’s, such actions will help the citizenry focus on what’s required to maintain a viable democracy.  The citizenry is very likely to vote out Republicans who have continued to support Trump and/or the fringe groups. While much of the turmoil over the next few years could be avoided if Republicans stop taking double doses of stupid pills, and if Republicans began supporting the Constitution, such a change in behavior by Republicans seems unlikely based on the continuing kowtowing to Trump.  If an insurrection didn’t change their attitude, nothing will.  Or maybe the real reason for not changing is the money flowing from the Kremlin.  I’m not much on conspiracy theories but, stupid pills aside,  the only logical way to explain why Republicans in Congress act the way they do is money.  END#403  Booklets you might find interesting:

#397 Those Who Smelt It Can Think Critically. (Need to Rebuild the Education System Part 2)

29 Sunday Nov 2020

Posted by in Education Issues, Societal Issues, Stupid Is as Stupid Does, Uncategorized

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Readers: some of the dialogue in this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Entries addressing events in the the future assume there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.

Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether in the next few years, a revolution in the US is still possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Most recent sense check, ENTRY #387.  

Some of the entries are part of a series.  Several series are available as easy-to-read booklets for download:

Beginning #378 the entries began focusing on a post-Trump administration and a post-Coronavirus world.  We’re headed to a post-Trump world and post-COVID seems possible, if a ways away.  The premise of a 5th US revolution in the 2020’s decade has not changed.  Comments and suggestions welcome.

ENTRY #397 continues the discussion on cognitive dissonance.

A recent example of a high-profile educated person being unable to connect two dots was the remarks by Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito at a Federalist Society meeting (11/12/20). Justice Alito, a supporter of individual rights, stated that while the coronavirus pandemic was a major health issue, government had no right to mandate wearing masks.  (20 11 14 NYT Alito Speech to Federalist Society)

Alito, apparently was an epidemiologist before turning lawyer, offered no plan to control the spread of the virus. Sam, in case you haven’t heard, there is no vaccine yet available and the country continues to set records for infections. And where are the most infections per capita?  Yes, in counties and states that voted for Trump.

Based on your remarks, apparently you are willing to let people decide, “I don’t need no stinking face mask ‘cause I ain’t infected.”   Please tell your dude friend he might be infected even though his symptoms are not yet severe. And, if infected, he’s also infecting people all around.   But, hey, that’s okay, right?  People need to be free to do whatever they want.

Here we are a couple of weeks after Alito’s inane remarks at the Federalist Society.  Since his remarks claiming masks were an intrusion on individual rights, the number of coronavirus cases has more than doubled to 200,000+ new cases per day with total cases 13,000,000+, 1/3 of those in the past month.

Justice Alito, I’m glad you weren’t around during World War II when people on the coasts were forced to block out lights during the evening to avoid giving the enemy easy targets to bomb. Glad you weren’t around when the EPA decided that lead in gasoline was dangerous and retarding mental development in children.  Glad you weren’t involved in the FAA decision banning passengers from carrying loaded concealed weapons on airplanes.  Those were bad decisions because some folks lost individual rights, right?

Further, according to the “New York Times” article about your remarks, you were insulted that President Obama mentioned during a State of the Union address that the Citizens United decision by SCOTUS would lead to unlimited spending on elections.  And who was correct?  Obama, but you didn’t need to be a constitutional lawyer to figure it out.

On the eve of Thanksgiving, in a decision released just before midnight, Alito apparently convinced four other SCOTUS justices that connecting two dots was only for liberals.  The court ruled 5-4, with the three Trump appointees voting as a block, that state governors did not have a right to limit the number of people gathered in one location, with special emphasis on allowing religious institutions to conduct services as they saw fit. 

Let me get this logic straight.  The Trump administration specifically mandated that the management of the pandemic was the responsibility of the governors.  Yes, the governors must be in charge.  That mandate was perfectly acceptable for governors of red states, most of whom did nothing.  But don’t let a Democratic governor issue any mandates.  Those mandates must be deemed too restrictive and overturned by SCOTUS.

The illogic of the SCOTUS decision proves once again that, if you’re a Republican, connecting two dots is difficult, if not impossible for you.  Part of the problem seems to be letting political ideology get in the way of common sense.

On another “can’t-connect-two-dots” front, Trump is still claiming voter fraud and that he really won the election.  By last count Biden won by more than 6,000,000 votes, and Trump was the clear loser.  And all states have certified election results.

What’s really disturbing is not Trump’s behavior.  Yes, Trump’s behavior is childish but he’s acted like a child his entire life.  What’s really disturbing?  Based on a credible survey, more than 70% of registered Republicans believe Trump won the election. Huh? 

Call me whatever you want, but folks if you believe Trump won you’re either the dumbest person on earth or you’re brainwashed. Surely you can’t be serious and think Trump won.

Unfortunately, I think they are serious. As noted occasionally, I have a number of friends on Facebook that could be considered far right politically. While their posts are sometimes comical, but often maddening, the posts do provide some idea what people are thinking, or at least how they’re reacting. The insight is helpful and at the same time frustrating.  Somehow they reached a conclusion but clearly there’s a deficit in their thinking and logic.

If 70+% of Republicans believe Trump won the election, that means 30+% of the voting population is effectively brainwashed.  According to Lincoln, “You can fool some of the people all the time…” Apparently 30+% of the population can be fooled all the time. 

30+% of the population being brainwashed makes it extraordinary difficult, if not impossible, to address and solve real societal Issues.  If that many people are so easily swayed, then we need to educate future generations to avoid being so easily swayed.

How do we avoid widespread cognitive dissonance?  Recent emphasis in education has been on “STEM” courses – science, technology, engineering, mathematics. These type courses are excellent for teaching how to solve certain kinds of problems.  Most decisions in STEM classes tend to be binary, either “yes” or “no.”  

While a binary decision is ideal for many situations, the answer in many other situations in life is not so clear-cut. Often two answers can include a portion that is correct and a portion that is not correct. In such situations which one should one choose?

Being forced to choose between “fuzzy” non-binary answers helps develop critical thinking skills.  To come to a conclusion, one must weigh the variables and decide the importance of each variable. 

To ensure students have the opportunity to learn critical thinking and reduce the likelihood of cognitive dissonance, my suggestion is we expand STEM to SMELT – science, mathematics, engineering, liberal-arts, technology.  Further we should start basic SMELT instruction in kindergarten and no later than first grade.

In the real world, children are faced with “fuzzy” decisions all the time. Let’s make sure our education system teaches them “how to” decide when faced with such a situation. The teaching would be “how to” decide and not “what to” decide. Teaching “how to” decide will reduce the likelihood of being brainwashed.

Teaching “how to” decide will also result in people who can at least consider and understand someone else’s perspective. In the binary world, if you don’t agree with me, you’re wrong. In the “fuzzy” world we can both agree on some things and work toward a more reasonable and practical solution. 

Biden is a critical thinker.  There is hope we can start to make a change. 

#377. What’s the Con Man Hiding?

05 Sunday Apr 2020

Posted by in Back Asswards Thinking, Diversions, Post Trump Presidency, Stupid Is as Stupid Does, Uncategorized

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Readers: this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.

Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether in the next few years, a revolution in the US is still possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Most recent sense check, Entry #365.  

Some of the entries are part of a series.  Several series are available as easy-to-read booklets for download:

Prelude: there is an endless number of inconsistencies in information from the Trump administration about the spread of the coronavirus and/or actions to mitigate the spread. For this blog entry we take a look at trying to understand why Trump behaves the way he does.  What’s really behind his behavior?

ENTRY #377 BEGINS:  Last week I ended the entry expressing hope that the experience and sacrifices associated with the coronavirus would help bring the US populace closer together. Being closer, in turn, would reduce the severity of the likely Revenge Revolution. Behavior by most of the public this past week seems to reinforce that hope.

What is far less clear is understanding the behavior and decisions by Trump. You have to ask yourself, “Why such behavior?” It makes no sense.

My training in undergrad and grad school and most jobs in my professional career have been to analyze data and then forecast events/outcomes. The challenge with forecasting is to articulate reasonable, actionable actions before the situation becomes obvious and more difficult to control. In addition, recommended actions that provide the most lead time often are necessarily, but also may be based on seemingly disparate data points.

Those who make predictions understand their forecasts are almost always wrong. Naysayers and “Monday-morning quarterbacks” love to nitpick and point out errors in the predictions. However, those who make decisions based on predictions understand that a good, actionable prediction doesn’t have to be 100% correct. A good prediction only needs to presents reasonably accurate outcomes for the most relevant variables before the situation becomes obvious and actions to control the situation less effective.

With that background, let’s turn to the behavior of Donald Trump as president. From my perspective there is something or maybe a set of variables driving his behavior that is not obvious. If one steps back and analyzes the possible consequences of the behavior, the likely outcomes of Trump’s actions seem contrary to the best interests of the United States. So, why such behavior?

Yes, Trump’s narcissistic. Yes, Trump’s crude, rude and a bully. Yes, he’s under educated and lazy. And, yes, he’s a wannabe Mafia Don. But none of those traits explains his decisions in certain key situations and his relationship with certain people.

Following is top-of-mind list of behavior and/or decisions that to me are inexplicable. With a bit of work, the list would be at least five times as long. Here’s the very short list:

  1. Post-inaugural closed-door meeting in the White House with the Russian ambassador, a known spy. After the meeting the transcript was destroyed. Why?
  2. Public and intense alienation of NATO allies while publicly courting Putin. Why?
  3. Refusing to release tax returns. Then, when ordered to provide tax returns to a Congressional committee, which is written in the tax code, refuses to do so and takes case to court. Why?
  4. When signing the $2 trillion coronavirus stimulus, adding an “executive exclusion” that claims the House of Representatives does not have the right of oversight for the expenditures and that he, Trump, will provide oversight. Why?
  5. Overruling vigorous protests by the FBI and CIA and issuing son-in-law Jared Kushner a top secret clearance. The agencies indicated Kushner’s behavior and associations disqualified him from such a clearance. What about the son-in-law’s behavior is so shady?
  6. Praising Navy SEAL Gallagher and then awarding him the Presidential Medal of Freedom when there was overwhelming evidence of criminal wrongdoing. Why go against the recommendations of the military?
  7. Trash-talking Navy Captain Brett Crozier of the aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt for trying to protect his crew from the coronavirus. Unlike Gallagher, Captain Crozier was praised as a hero by officers and enlisted sailors. Why praise Gallagher and trash-talk Crozier?
  8. Appointing cabinet officials with clear conflicts of interests, starting with General Flynn and his interactions with Russia and Turkey. Trump was informed of Flynn’s conflicts before the appointment, yet went ahead. Most of the Cabinet appointees have little or no experience in the department. In addition, Trump has consistently appointed “acting” staff members, apparently to avoid having the person be subjected to review by the Senate. Why?
  9. Claiming that he (Trump) had influenced the Saudis and the Russians to agree to raise oil prices. Just a few days before claiming he helped raise oil prices, Trump claimed that lower oil prices were like a tax cut for consumers. Whatever Trump offered the Saudis and the Russians didn’t work since the “deal” has been delayed. What was in this for Trump?
  10. Refusal to have the federal government take the lead in coordinating a response to the coronavirus. Only after extreme pressure did Trump invoke the Defense Production Act, which forced companies to make certain products and then sell the products to the Federal government at a certain price. But rather than the Federal government taking possession, Trump directs the companies to ship the products to private distributors, who are allowed to resell the products to the various states, often at 10x the price paid by the Federal government. Why?

There are many other examples, including the behavior of Attorney General Barr. But in each case one must ask, why? If any of these actions were part of a presidential campaign platform, would Trump have been elected? Obviously not. Who would vote for a candidate, for example, who says, “I’m going to insult NATO allies, and especially insult the English, French and Germans. Then I’m going to cozy up to a known enemy of the United States, the Russians.”

Here’s my take on Trump’s behavior and no one should be surprised. The Russians, for sure, likely the Saudis, and maybe the Chinese have Trump by the short hairs. Why? Because of backroom unreported financial deals, which likely involve laundering money. Recall, the only bank that would lend Trump money after his series of bankruptcies and defaulting on payments was Deutsche Bank. Which bank has been indicted and fined for laundering money? (Guess Deutsche Bank.) Who did Trump appoint as Commerce Secretary? None other than Wilbur Ross, the former chairman of Cyprus Bank, a bank notorious for laundering money.

Don’t be fooled by Trump’s bluster and claim that he’s tough on the Russians and Chinese. Look behind the curtain and see the sanctions against the Russians are a farce. The tariffs against Chinese goods are more show than substance. Think about this. Could the tariffs have been part of a deal where Trump agreed to walk away from the Trans-Pacific Partnership? The agreement would have strengthened America’s influence in Asia. By walking away, did Trump let the Chinese begin to dominate trade in Southeast Asia in exchange for some payment to Trump?

Even without his tax returns, there’s enough evidence to indicate Trump is up to his eyeballs in debt. Trump, Jr even bragged at the private club Trump bought north of Charlotte that the Russians were the source of money for many Trump projects. There’s enough evidence to suggest the Saudis have also provided cash to Trump.

Before the coronavirus, cash flow at many Trump properties was declining, and in some cases, cash flow was negative. The drop-off in cash flow associated with the Coronavirus has made the situation much worse. On April 4, the Trump Organization announced layoffs of 1,500 people. And more layoffs are likely to come.

Let’s pause for now and just ask ourselves, why in Trumpland does everything seem backwards? Why in Trumpland does black look like white? Why in Trumpland does down look like up? Why is irrational considered rational? And endless other dichotomies.

Over the next week, step back and view Trump’s remarks in the context of the questions raised and why everything seems backwards. Stepping back might provide some interesting insight, or at least raise more questions. To be continued.

#376. Trump’s Stupidity May Help Save the Country

29 Sunday Mar 2020

Posted by in Benefits of Revolution, General Motors, Post Trump Presidency, Societal Issues, Stupid Is as Stupid Does, Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Readers: this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.

Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether in the next few years, a revolution in the US is still possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Most recent sense check, Entry #365.  

Some of the entries are part of a series.  Several series are available as easy-to-read booklets for download:

Prelude: there is an endless number of inconsistencies in information from the Trump administration about the spread of the coronavirus and/or actions to mitigate the spread. For recent blog entries I’ve selected a few that are representative but not necessarily the most egregious.

ENTRY #376 BEGINS:  When it became clear the coronavirus had turned into a pandemic, the White House dropped claims the virus was a hoax and established a task force to help coordinate something, although no one was quite sure what.  The task force began a daily press conference to provide the public with updates on the spread of the virus, actions being contemplated – emphasis on contemplated – to help mitigate the spread and guidance from CDC doctors about steps to the public could take to avoid getting infected or infecting others.

Once Trump realized the task force’s press conference was being viewed widely, he insisted on VP Pence playing second fiddle and Trump becoming the lead spokesperson. Since joining the daily briefings, frequently Trump has spoken for 45-60 minutes, often rambling incoherently about a wide range of unrelated and irrelevant topics. The rambling regularly includes an incredible number of lies and totally fabricated stories and claims. 

Even in a crisis, Trump cannot tell anything resembling the truth.  Since the beginning of his term, the frequency and magnitude of the lies has increased dramatically, even by Trump standards.  The daily press conferences seem to be two, sometimes three different events. 

  1. Press conference featuring Trump’s incoherent rambling and lies.  The remarks almost always include pointing fingers at someone else, claiming the other person/group is at fault, and not Trump.  An example is Trump claiming the Governor of New York should have known that the Federal government had stored ventilators in New Jersey.  Even though the Federal government didn’t know, Governor Cuomo of NY should have known the ventilators were in New Jersey!  Seems logical to me.
  2. Press conference updating info from the task force.  Lots of claims of progress and projections but very little hard data.  During the press conference the contrast is shocking between statements from Pence, who constantly praises Trump, and live reports from doctors and nurses in hospitals in say Brooklyn or Queens.  While Pence has fewer gross misstatements than Trump, Pence has not been a credible source of information.
  3. Press conference with doctors from CDC, especially Anthony Fauci, a 79-year-old, Brooklyn-born straight shooter with extensive experience in communicable diseases.  Fauci has become a trusted “voice of reason” in this crisis.  Fauci also frequently, but diplomatically, corrects Trump’s claims.  The contrast between Trump and Fauci is striking, both in stature and credibility.  The little guy Fauci is a credible giant.

Unfortunately, for Trump’s hard-core supporters, none of Trump’s behavior seems to matter.  For them Trump can never be wrong, no matter how egregious the claim or no matter how much data support the truth.  Trumpsters have made it a habit of never checking the facts.  Why should they when they have “alternative facts” to support their position?  If one is able to hold something akin to a conversation with a Trumpster, the least bit of a challenge to one of Trump’s claims will result in the Trumpster making irrelevant and usually disproved claims, usually about Obama or Hillary Clinton. 

Trump’s lies, and the refusal within the Trump Administration to address real problems – recall as late as March 3 Trump claimed the coronavirus was a hoax – has made it even more difficult to address the many logistical and medical equipment availability problems associated with the coronavirus.

An example is limited availability of ventilators.  While the percentage is small of people contracting the coronavirus who need a ventilator, the vast number of people who have or will contract the virus results in the need for ventilators far in excess of existing capacity.

Increasing production of ventilators is it good example of how, in the Trump administration, no good deed goes unpunished. When projections indicated that demand for ventilators would far exceed installed capacity, General Motors offered to work with Ventec Life Systems, a ventilator company based in Bothell, WA and help the company increase production.

That proposed relationship was announced March 20, although likely most of the agreement had already been reached. Under the agreement GM was to help the company increase production from about 150 per month to 1,000 per month and then 10,000 per month with total production up to 200,000 ventilators.

Within a few days of the announcement that GM would help, which received decent press coverage, there was another announcement published in the technical press.  That release received very little coverage.  The “technical” press release indicated details about the ventilator design. Knowing the details presented a completely different picture of the problems GM faced in increasing production than the supposed problems claimed by Trump.

If you were not familiar with manufacturing, the details in following paragraphs might not seem to be so important. If you are familiar with manufacturing, your jaw might drop and hit the table.

For reference, think of a ventilator as a somewhat more elaborate HVAC system that’s in your car or truck. Both the ventilator and HVAC have a pump, tubes to push the air, vents that open and close and sensors to monitor air flow and other conditions. The ventilator also includes a facemask to help concentrate the airflow for the user. Otherwise the ventilator and the HVAC system are roughly the same.  Since GM makes millions of cars and trucks every year, all with some form of HVAC, one would think that GM should be able to take the ventilator company’s design and ramp up production within a few days.

Alas, the unforeseen problem. I don’t know the exact percentage, but I’ll bet 90% of the key components are the same for every HVAC system installed in GM cars and trucks. Yes, between body styles the tubes might be a different length and the mounting brackets might be different, and the pump on a big truck will be larger than a small car, but fundamentally the components are all about the same.

Well, manufacturing experts, the ventilator design would not pass DFM 101 (design for manufacturing). The report I saw in the tech press indicated there are 1,400 specific parts. That sounds outrageously high so let’s cut that by 75% and say there are 350 specific parts. The tech press also indicated the parts were sourced in at least 10 different countries.

Thus, what GM encountered was not a manufacturing problem which it could solve simply and quickly, but a supply chain problem, which can take much longer to solve. No one, and I mean no one, who understands one iota about manufacturing would allow such a crazy design to go into production. For GM, the problem then became how to find parts, including parts in a number of countries also inflicted with the coronavirus. Nonetheless, GM apparently found enough parts to be ready to begin ventilator production at a plant in Kokomo, IN that is outfitted for “clean production.”

What did Trump do to help alleviate the ventilator shortage? Trump, who knows absolutely nothing about manufacturing and apparently is either too lazy or too stupid to learn, likely both, blames GM for not meeting a Trump-set production goal, even though GM was ready to begin production and waiting for Federal government approval. In addition, rather than approving the request to begin, Trump said GM should begin production at a Lordstown, OH assembly plant that GM no longer owns.  (Bloomberg article.)

OK Donald, let’s not take responsibility for not preparing the country for a likely pandemic – your administration was informed formally by China January 3 and then later you claimed you always knew it was a pandemic.  No, instead of taking responsibility, let’s blame the Good Samaritan GM for stepping up and trying to help.

In addition to chastising General Motors for not meeting a nearly impossible production schedules, Trump claimed GM was charging too much for the project. Of course, Trump had no data points to support his claim. In a widely-watched interview, Governor Cuomo of New York stated that each ventilator cost the State of New York roughly $25,000.

Trump told GM to build a minimum 40,000 ventilators asap.  Gee, the last I looked 40,000*$25,000 = $1,000,000,000.  Where’s the premium you claim GM is charging?  There appears to be little, if any reimbursement to GM for engineering hours, travel expenses and assembly time.  What’s being charged is the transfer price from the existing company.

There’s an old saying, “When the going gets tough, the tough get going.”  Well, Trump’s refusal to lead and to take responsibility for delaying any type of Federal action to help thwart the effects of the coronavirus is a perfect example of someone who talks tough but isn’t. 

Ironically, Trump’s lame, narcissistic, stupid behavior may somehow allow the US to avoid a more serious 5th revolution.  The Revenge Revolution will still occur but the outcome, if patterns continue, will be positive.  People are starting to understand and appreciate the importance of sharing and sacrifice, the importance of being honest and helpful, the importance of duty, honor, country.  Trump has none of these characteristics.  In a very obtuse way, his negligence and ineptness has forced the country to reassess its behavior.

I’m optimistic the US will be a better country once we get through this phase of the coronavirus.  It’s truly unfortunate so many people had to die prematurely because of Trump’s behavior.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

When it became clear the coronavirus had turned into a pandemic, the White House dropped claims the virus was a hoax and established a task force to help coordinate something, although no one was quite sure what.  The task force began a daily press conference to provide the public with updates on the spread of the virus, actions being contemplated – emphasis on contemplated – to help mitigate the spread and guidance from CDC doctors about steps to the public could take to avoid getting infected or infecting others.

Once Trump realized the task force’s press conference was being viewed widely, he insisted on VP Pence playing second fiddle and Trump becoming the lead spokesperson. Since joining the daily briefings, frequently Trump has spoken for 45-60 minutes, often rambling incoherently about a wide range of unrelated and irrelevant topics. The rambling regularly includes an incredible number of lies and totally fabricated stories and claims. 

Even in a crisis, Trump cannot tell anything resembling the truth.  Since the beginning of his term, the frequency and magnitude of the lies has increased dramatically, even by Trump standards.  The daily press conferences seem to be two, sometimes three different events.  #1 event is Trump’s incoherent rambling and lies.  The remarks almost always include pointing fingers at someone else, claiming the other person/group is at fault, and not Trump.  An example is Trump claiming the Governor of New York should have known that the Federal government has stored ventilators in New Jersey.  Even though the Federal government didn’t know, Governor Cuomo of NY should have known the ventilators were in New Jersey!  Seems logical to me.

#2 press conference is the task force report.  Lots of claims of progress and projections but very little hard data.  During the press conference the contrast is shocking between statements from Pence, who constantly praises Trump, and live reports from doctors and nurses in hospitals in say Brooklyn or Queens.  While Pence has fewer gross misstatements than Trump, Pence has not been a credible source of information. 

#3 press conference is the doctors from CDC, especially Anthony Fauci, a 79-year-old, Brooklyn-born straight shooter with extensive experience in communicable diseases.  Fauci has become a trusted “voice of reason” in this crisis.  Fauci also frequently, but diplomatically, corrects Trump’s claims.  The contrast between Trump and Fauci is striking, both in stature and credibility.  The little guy Fauci is a credible giant.

Unfortunately, for Trump’s hard-core supporters, none of Trump’s behavior seems to matter.  For them Trump can never be wrong, no matter how egregious the claim or no matter how much data support the truth.  Trumpsters have made it a habit of never checking the facts.  Why should they when they have “alternative facts” to support their position?  If one is able to hold something akin to a conversation with a Trumpster, the least bit of a challenge to one of Trump’s claims will result in the Trumpster making irrelevant and usually disproved claims, usually about Obama or Hillary Clinton. 

Trump’s lies, and the refusal within the Trump Administration to address real problems – recall as late as March 3 Trump claimed the coronavirus was a hoax – has divided the country further and made it even more difficult to address the many logistical and medical equipment availability problems associated with the coronavirus.

An example is limited availability of ventilators.  While the percentage is small of people contracting the coronavirus who need a ventilator, the vast number of people who have or will contract the virus results in the need for ventilators far in excess of existing capacity.

Increasing production of ventilators is it good example of how, in the Trump administration, no good deed goes unpunished. When projections indicated that demand for ventilators would far exceed installed capacity, General Motors offered to work with Ventec Life Systems, a ventilator company based in Bothell, WA and help the company increase production.

That proposed relationship was announced March 20, although likely most of the agreement had already been reached. Under the agreement GM was to help the company increase production from about 150 per month to 1,000 per month and then 10,000 per month up to 200,000 ventilators.

Within a few days of the announcement that GM would help, which received decent press coverage, there was another announcement published in the technical press.  That release received very little coverage.  The “technical” press release indicated details about the ventilator design. Knowing the details presented a completely different picture of the problems GM faced in increasing than the supposed problems claimed by Trump.

If you were not familiar with manufacturing, the details in following paragraphs might not seem to be so important. If you are familiar with manufacturing, your jaw made drop and hit the table.

For reference, think of a ventilator as a somewhat more elaborate HVAC system that’s in your car or truck. Both the ventilator and HVAC have a pump, tubes to push the air, vents that open and close and sensors to monitor air flow and other conditions. The ventilator also includes a facemask to help concentrate the airflow for the user. Otherwise the ventilator and the HVAC system are roughly the same.  Since GM makes millions of cars and trucks every year, all with some form of HVAC, one would think that GM should be able to take the ventilator company’s design and ramp up production within a few days.

Alas, the unforeseen problem. I don’t know the exact percentage, but I’ll bet 90% of the key components are the same for every HVAC system installed in GM cars and trucks. Yes, between body styles the tubes might be a different length and the mounting brackets might be different, and the pump on a big truck will be larger than a small car, but fundamentally the components are all about the same.

Well, manufacturing experts, the ventilator design would not pass DFM 101 (design for manufacturing). The report I saw in the tech press indicated there are 1,400 specific parts. That sounds outrageously high so let’s cut that by 75% and say there are 350 specific parts. The tech press also indicated the parts were sourced in at least 10 different countries.

Thus, what GM encountered was not a manufacturing problem which it could solve quickly, but a supply chain problem, which can take much longer to solve. No one, and I mean no one, who understands one iota about manufacturing would allow such a crazy design to go into production. For GM, the problem then became how to find parts, including parts in a number of countries also inflicted with the coronavirus. Nonetheless, GM apparently found enough parts to be ready to begin production at a plant in Kokomo, IN that is outfitted for “clean production.”

What did Trump do to help alleviate the problem? Trump, who knows absolutely nothing about manufacturing and apparently is either too lazy or too stupid to learn, likely both, blames GM for not meeting a Trump-set production goal, even though GM was ready to begin production and waiting for Federal government approval. In addition, rather than approving the request to begin, Trump said GM should begin production at a Lordstown, OH assembly plant that GM no longer owns.  (Bloomberg article.)

OK Donald, let’s not take responsibility for not preparing the country for a likely pandemic – your administration was informed formally by China January 3 and then later you claimed you always knew it was a pandemic.  No, instead of taking responsibility, let’s blame the Good Samaritan GM for stepping up and trying to help.

In addition to chastising General Motors for not meeting nearly impossible production schedules, Trump claimed GM was charging too much for the project. Of course, Trump had no data points to support his claim. In a widely-watched interview, Governor Cuomo of New York stated that each ventilator cost the State of New York roughly $25,000. Trump told GM to build a minimum 40,000 ventilators asap.  Gee, the last I looked 40,000*$25,000 = $1,000,000,000.  Where’s the premium you claim GM is charging?  There appears to be little, if any reimbursement to GM for engineering hours, travel expenses and assembly time.  What’s being charged is the transfer price from the existing company.

There’s an old saying, “When the going gets tough, the tough get going.”  Well, Trump’s refusal to lead and to take responsibility for delaying any type of Federal action to help thwart the effects of the coronavirus is a perfect example of someone who talks tough but isn’t. 

Ironically, Trump’s lame, narcissistic behavior may have actually allowed the US to avoid a more serious 5th revolution.  The Revenge Revolution will occur and the outcome, if patterns continue, will be positive.  People are starting to understand and appreciate the importance of sharing and sacrifice, the importance of being honest and helpful, the importance of duty, honor, country.  Trump has none of those characteristics.  In a very obtuse way, his negligence and ineptness has forced the country to reassess its behavior.

I’m optimistic the US will be a better country once we get through this phase of the coronavirus.  It’s truly unfortunate so many people had to die prematurely because of Trump. 

#375 Leadership in a Crisis: Chaos or Confidence?

21 Saturday Mar 2020

Posted by in Causes of the Revolution, Economics, Federal Budget, Gov't Policy, Stupid Is as Stupid Does, Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Readers: this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.

Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether in the next few years, a revolution in the US is still possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Most recent sense check, Entry #365.  

Some of the entries are part of a series.  Several series are available as easy-to-read booklets for download:

Prelude: there is an endless number of inconsistencies in information from the Trump administration about the spread of the coronavirus and/or actions to mitigate the spread. Rather than beat a dead horse, I’ve chosen a few that are representative but not necessarily the most egregious.

ENTRY #375 BEGINS: During the Great Depression FDR understood that instilling hope in people would help bring the country together and help reduce the likelihood of societal chaos. FDR started his first term by stating, “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”

FDR followed his inaugural address with a series of “fireside chats,” during which he outlined problems and proposed solutions. (If you’ve never heard any of the “fireside chats,” they’re available on the internet.) The fireside chats helped build confidence in the capabilities of the Roosevelt administration and a foundation of hope in a time of great uncertainty.

The umbrella for recovery from the Great Depression was called the “New Deal.” The New Deal included a series of programs to provide work and income (and self-respect) for all types of unemployed workers. The New Deal work programs – WPA, CCC, and many others – included significantly expanding infrastructure in the United States, which laid the groundwork for economic growth for many decades to come.

The lesson of FDR’s understanding of creating hope and maintaining self-respect seems to have been lost on the Trump Administration. Whereas the cause of society’s uncertainty today is different than during the 1930’s, the importance of instilling hope in society and avoiding instilling fear remains the same.

Unfortunately, since day #1 in office, Trump has promoted chaos and fear. Even cabinet members who were selected because of a relationship with Trump, have been cast aside for daring to disagree with Trump. As noted in several previous entries (#374 is an example), the result of Trump‘s management style has been a cabinet that is filled with incompetents.

Trump has also consistently displayed incompetence on substantive issues. The combination has reduced people’s confidence in the ability of government to manage crises. What about the public’s confidence in the competence of the White House in dealing with the coronavirus? Did Trump take the approach of FDR and layout problems and proposed solutions?

In a press conference March 20, 2020, a reporter asked Trump and Mike Pompeo, Secretary of State, when the administration first learned of the extent of the coronavirus problem in China. Pompeo asked the Homeland Security director to answer – the reply was “January 3.”

Did the Trump administration convey such information to the public? Did the administration take any action to ensure critical medical supplies would be on hand should the virus spread to the US? No, not even outside the public purview. As recently as March 3rd – two months after learning about the major problems in China – Trump declared publicly the coronavirus was a hoax.

When cases started appearing in the US, Trump claimed there were only 15 cases (there were at least 60). And of the 15 cases, Trump claimed only one or two were serious. A few days thereafter, Trump declared the virus would magically disappear, like some miracle. According to Trump, the US, unlike other countries, had the coronavirus under control.

On March 19 information became available that the Senate Committee on Intelligence had been briefed on the severity of the problem in February. The chairman of the committee, Richard Burr (R-NC), used the information to sell stock in industries that might be affected and to warn a small group of high-dollar donors about the growing problem. Did Burr inform the public? No. (Gee, I wonder what the outcry would be from Fox News, Lindsey Graham and other Trump lapdogs if Burr were a Democrat?)

Despite declarations from King Trump, the number of people infected in the US kept increasing exponentially. Then after several governors and mayors had implemented severe restrictions on travel and gatherings, King Trump declared, “I always knew this would lead to a pandemic.” Right Donald – liar, liar, pants on fire.”

Aside from the bonehead declarations by the president, the performance of the Trump administration this past week or so has been better, but remains mixed. Public confidence in the Center for Disease Control (CDC) seems to have improved as doctors have begun telling the truth about the intensity of the coronavirus and how citizens should behave. Comments from CDC personnel often have directly conflicted with claims made by Trump, even when Trump is standing next to the CDC spokesperson.

In addition, state and local officials have continued to provide guidance. Examples include governors of Michigan and Washington as well as governors/mayors in the New York tristate area. There are still some bumps in these declarations and differences of opinion but action is being taken.

As far as calming fear, Trump might have convinced the hardcore supporters he’s competent, but no one else seems convinced that he or key White House staff/cabinet officials knows what to do. Once the public began to understand more about they could be affected by the virus and then began to understand proposed government programs to respond, mild panic set in.

People rushed to buy food and staples. Stocks of toilet paper were depleted because people were concerned the material used to make facemasks would stop production of toilet paper. A simple explanation of manufacturing capacity for TP, and lead times from factory to food stores would have mitigated most concerns. A similar explanation for many food products would have helped. But as of this date, nary a word from the White House about supply chains.

The uncertainty also spooked investors, who hate uncertainty. The result has been a frenzy with huge daily swings in the market, mostly down. The major indexes, Trump’s personal barometer of job performance, have declined to a point where all the gains realized since inauguration have been wiped out. In less than two months the major indexes have fallen 25-30%.

The near freefall of the stock market has affected consumer confidence as has the projection of a double-digit drop in GDP in 2020:Q2, and double-digit unemployment. The trifecta hit on confidence will exaggerate the virus-related slowdown in purchases of durable goods as well as home sales and construction.

The run-up in the stock market proceeding the recent crash also left the public with another headache – an additional $1,000,000,000,000 Federal debt. The 2017 tax cut was essentially a wealth transfer program to the rich, making them even richer. Think of it as socialism for the rich. Little, if any of the tax cut actually filtered down to the middle and lower-income categories.

The end result was the rich got considerably richer and everyone else got stuck with the bill — $2,700+ for every man, woman and child in the US. For a family of four, they should think of the tax cut as their gift of more than $10,000 to the very wealthy. (For more about the fallacy of trickle-down economics, which was used to justify the wealth transfer, see blog entry xxx.)

While an economic stimulus will help some people pay bills in the short-term, the real issue is mitigating the effects of the virus. Because currently there is no vaccine (forget Trump’s claim) and no known cause, there is no way to stop infections. The government’s plan is to “flatten the curve” of the rate of infection so the number of people needing hospitalization stays within the capacity of the hospital system.

Actions to “flatten the curve of infection” include restricting the number of people who can gather together. In some areas, the restriction is 100 people, some areas it is 50 people and some areas 10 people. Surprisingly, as of 03/18, about 10 states had no restrictions, including Texas.

The flip side of restrictions on crowd control is the negative impact on commerce. Restaurants, bars, hotels, gyms, movie theaters, theme parks and even religious institutions have been ordered to close. Sporting events have been canceled or delayed. Airlines have cut back flights by 50% or more.

Even such mundane tasks as garbage pickup have been affected. In our neighborhood, the sanitation department also picks up twigs, leaves and other yard waste. This week the yard-waste truck was about an hour late because, according to a man on the truck, they could not take off because of the 50-person restriction and had to wait for the sanitation workers to leave the building. (Yard waste pickup has now been suspended.)

The effect of these restrictions will be a significant increase in unemployment and decline in GDP. Although some believe the jump in unemployment will be temporary, my belief is that any rebound in employment will leave many unemployed as organizations realize how to operate with fewer employees by implementing more technology. The depressing effect on employment could last for a number of years. (For more information about the effects of technology on potential unemployment, see ”Tech Tsunami Booklet with Supplement” )

While both economic and medical programs are needed, most proposed actions by the White House seem more focused on the economy and less on ensuring medical care is available for those affected. An example is the proposed payment of $1,000-$2,000 per family for some period. The intent seems worthwhile, helping to address income shortfalls for many service workers.

The effect of such programs on confidence is more problematic. The proposed program would link the amount of payment to family size and family income. Thus, the more income one earned (there’s a cap), the bigger the check from the government. Does anyone in the Trump administration or the Republican Senate understand basic economics? People with lower incomes who get laid off have no savings. At least give everyone the same amount.

Doubtless the irony of the proposed economic program has been lost on the White House and the Republican Senators. Isn’t giving away money directly to families socialism? Only a couple of weeks ago Republicans were characterizing as socialism any Democratic proposal for income support or student-loan forgiveness. Or, as often stated by Trumpsters, maybe such programs were really like communism. Well, aren’t socialism and communism the same?

Okay, the idea of supplementing income in the short-term makes economic sense. But there’s no need for a tax cut for corporations. In case Trump and Republicans don’t understand, taxes first require revenue and then a profit. If the public is not working there’s no demand and no revenue – and duh, no profit or tax due.

The proposed programs also have a flip side. #1, the proposed program would increase the federal debt in FY2020 at least another $1,000,000,000,000 and closer to $2,000,000,000,000. Thus, by the time Trump completes four years in office, the Federal debt will have increased more than $3,000,000,000,000…and likely more. The increase is remarkably high given that unlike Obama, Trump inherited a very strong economy that should have resulted in a smaller annual deficit and possibly annual surplus. Like I asked earlier, does anyone in the White House, Trump’s cabinet or the Republican Senate understand basic economics?

So where have all the Republican fiscal conservatives been while Trump ran up the federal debt? Apparently in hiding and waiting for a Democratic president so they can begin screaming about the level of federal debt. The scream will be the Federal debt needs to be reduced with cuts to payments for Social Security and Medicare.

Another area that can contribute to the thinking-public’s lack of confidence is the Trump administration’s effort to eliminate Obamacare. During the 2016 presidential campaign and then during three years in office, Trump has made every effort to kill Obamacare. Any Obamacare-like program was bad — oops until the coronavirus. Now many programs being proposed by the Trump administration are absolutely consistent with the purpose of Obamacare and suggest that the US would be better off with a national healthcare system. Such change in policy will only increase frustration among the populace as well as increase the lack of confidence in government.

Adding fuel to the “no-confidence” fire was Trump’s claim at a oppress conference Friday, 03/20/2020 that his administration inherited a broken healthcare system from the Obama administration but that he (Trump) had fixed it. Obviously, not everyone agreed. The lead doctor at CDC put his head in his hand as Trump spoke.

Where does all the inconsistency and uncertainty lead? Uncertainty, as discussed in a number of previous blog entries, is often a precursor to a revolution. The US might get lucky and avoid a 5th revolution by voting out Trump and most of the Senate in the November 2020 election.

As of today, even though the coronavirus crisis is still in the early stages, the public seems more than willing to accept Depression-era types of programs to help stimulate the economy and begin to help reduce the income inequities that currently exist. Such programs are more consistent with the Democratic Party and would seem to bode well for the election of Joe Biden.

However, if for whatever reason Trump is re-elected, then the level of chaos and uncertainty experienced during the first term is likely to intensify. While the hard-core Trumpsters might be satisfied, the majority of the population will not be. The extreme discord between the hard-core Trumpster and rational people will increase the probability of a 5th US revolution.

As described throughout the blog, the revolution will be some type of revenge against the elite that Trump continues to support. The revolution – the Revenge Revolution – also will include many of the hard-core who finally wake up to the reality of how much Trump has screwed them.

#374 Trump Incompetent’s Club Squared

08 Sunday Mar 2020

Posted by in Causes of the Revolution, Economics, Societal Issues, Stupid Is as Stupid Does

≈ 1 Comment

Readers: this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.

Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether in the next few years, a revolution in the US is still possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Most recent sense check, Entry #365.  

Some of the entries are part of a series.  Several series are available as easy-to-read booklets for download:

ENTRY #374 BEGINS: The theme of this blog is a revolution of some form in the US seems likely within a few years after 2020. In the various entries, I’ve tried to cite factors that could contribute to a revolution.

Last week’s entry was titled “Where Do We Go from Here?” and attempted to outline some of the public confusion and angst created by actions of the Trump administration in dealing with the coronavirus outbreak. But how could it get any worse?

Well, this past week the ineptness of the Trump administration ratcheted up several notches the public confusion and angst about the virus. Apparently what’s not clear to the Trump administration is no one is blaming Trump for the outbreak. What’s causing great frustration among most sectors of the population is how the Trump administration is handling efforts to diagnose and contain the spread of the virus.

And who’s the primary source of the confusion and inept management? None other than the Donald himself.

In crisis situations, people’s strengths and weaknesses tend to get magnified. One of Trump’s personality flaws is fear of being criticized. To help get around that flaw, Trump became a compulsive liar. The lying was his regular MO in the real estate business and has continued as president. He lies regularly on tv/radio and in public forums. Based on a mountain of examples, Trump seems to make erroneous statements, aka lies, whenever he needs to reinforce his own behavior or deflect potential criticism.

Specific to the coronavirus, within the past week Trump claimed 1,000,000 test kits would be available by the end of the week. He also claimed that a vaccine preventing the coronavirus would be developed and available in a couple of months.

Both those claims were intended to demonstrate to the public how actions by the Trump administration were mitigating the effects of the virus. However, both claims were patently false.

Increasing production and distribution of test kits will take weeks, if not months. Further, testing capabilities in some areas of the US is extremely limited. Arkansas, for example, has lab capacity limited to testing only 6-10 cases per day. Additional tests will need to be sent elsewhere for processing, further delaying results. As of March 6, there was no central location for labs and/or doctors to report the number of cases detected.

As far as the vaccine, a doctor at CDC noted it would be a minimum 18-24 months for development of the vaccine. In addition to development time, additional time would be required for distribution, then inoculation and finally time for the body to incorporate the vaccine. The “normal” flu vaccine, for example, takes about two weeks to become effective.

While some of the population might continue to believe Trump and the Coronavirus Czar VP Mike Pence – “You can fool some of the people all the time…” – an ever-increasing percentage of the population is becoming more concerned about the ineffectual efforts to control spread of the virus. The lying by Trump, Pence et al, further erodes confidence in the government’s capabilities. Loss of confidence in government is a major contributor to revolutions regardless of country.

The lack of honesty by the Trump Administration has created uncertainty among investors. In the past month stock process have gyrated with all major stock indexes having declined at least 10%, and more declines likely.

So what? Why would activity on Wall Street contribute to the Revenge Revolution? In today’s workforce, few people have defined benefit programs paid for by their employer. As a result, workers must rely on building their own retirement savings. A substantial portion of retirement savings is invested in stocks. When markets decline sharply, as we’ve seen the last few weeks and may see for some time, people become anxious and disenchanted.

In addition to concerns of individual investors, a problem not well understood by the public is lurking on the sidelines. The problem has been caused by the Trump administration’s fiscal policy, specifically the 2017 tax cut, and pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low. The ballooning deficit and the already low interest rates have reduced options available to the Federal Reserve to help counter any economic slowdown.

Trump can blame anyone or any group he wants. However, when the economy declines and jobs are lost, and the population has little confidence in the government, the chances increase for some type of revolution.

With some luck, voters will replace Trump in November 2020. What we won’t know, even with a new president, is whether damage to the credibility of the government caused by Trump’s mismanagement of the coronavirus as well as mismanagement of many other situations is too extensive to repair sufficiently before a segment of the populous revolts in some way and we have a revolution – the Revenge Revolution.

#373 Where Do We Go from Here?

01 Sunday Mar 2020

Posted by in Gov't Policy, Stupid Is as Stupid Does, Uncategorized

≈ Leave a comment

Readers: this blog is set in the future (sometime after the year 2020). Each entry assumes there has been a 5th revolution in the US — the Revenge Revolution. More about the Revenge Revolution, a list of earlier revolutions and the author, Entry #1.

Periodically I write a “sense check” to assess whether in the next few years, a revolution in the US is still possible or whether the entire exercise is based on a statistical aberration — i.e., a roughly 50-year cycle between major upheavals in the US.  Most recent sense check, Entry #365.  

Some of the entries are part of a series.  Several series are available as easy-to-read booklets for download:

ENTRY #373 BEGINS.  Some readers are old enough to remember the TV show “Laugh In.” The show included a segment titled, “That Was the Week that Was,” which was a satirical review of recent news.

“That Was the Week that Was” seems to have returned, unfortunately not as a spoof, but as a series of real actions by the Trump Administration.  In a classic example of “stupid is as stupid does,” the White House, and Trump in particular, played down the potential impact of the coronavirus.  The virus has been spreading rapidly worldwide.  Yet Trump proclaimed the spread of the virus was under control in the US.  Further, according to Trump, the virus was just like a miracle, and would disappear one day.

During an evening press conference this past week designed to address concerns about the virus and outline plans to mitigate risk to the US populous, the White House staff, better named the Gang-that-Couldn’t-Shoot-Straight, apparently did not coordinate who was going to say what.

Trump, who spoke first and rambled endlessly, kept claiming there were only 15 cases of coronavirus in the US.  Then, Trump suggested, most of those had been cured or not serious. So, in fact there were only a couple real cases, and maybe just one.  You know, whatever.

The CDC doctors who followed, preceded by an interlude featuring Trump naming VP Pence the corona czar – virus, not beer – followed by Pence praising Trump for his leadership, said they knew of 60 cases. Furthermore, according to the doctors, everyone should prepare for many more cases.  The issue was not if the US will be impacted by the coronavirus, but when the US will be impacted and how severely.

In typical Trumpian rationale, the president claimed the public hysteria associated with the virus and the plunge in the stock market – more than 10% in a week – was the fault of the media and the Democrats. Republican stalwart Rush Limbaugh told listeners that the virus was nothing more than a common cold.

On top of these brainless statements, the White House initially proposed funding any extra costs associated with addressing the virus by diverting funds from programs aimed at helping the poor. The poor you know, must really have been the cause of the virus and, therefore be punished.

What kind of idiotic Administration is running the country? The craziness is never ending.  Yet, most Republicans don’t seem the least bit concerned by such events as Trump’s truly incoherent statements during the press conference or, by his even more incoherent claim about the virus being under control in the US.

Worldwide, major events are being canceled. The Geneva Auto Show being but one of many examples. While the US has restricted travelers from certain countries from entering the US, the State Department allegedly overrode a recommendation of the CDC and allowed people who had been on a cruise ship and considered highly contagious, to enter the country, then head home without being quarantined. Why did these people get special treatment? Apparently phone calls from the White House.  If true, who knows the real reason?

On another mind-numbing note, the White House acting Chief of Staff, Mick Mulvaney, chastised the media for, among other things, not reporting more about Trump’s positive relationship with his son Barron. Barron’s mother, also known as the first lady, had asked the press to continue the long-held tradition of not reporting most activities of presidential children.  But, oh, why would the Acting Chief of Staff, or anyone in the White House and the Trump Administration want to spend five minutes to check just a bit of history?  Doing so would be such a waste of time.  History is such a boring topic.

Normally, I get concerned but don’t rail about many actions taken by the gang of incompetents in the Trump Administration, the most notable incompetent being the president.  Doing so would consume much of the day and be too depressing.

However, what does seem worth railing about is why and how so many people continue to support Trump and don’t seem to appreciate or understand what a risk his actions are to our democracy. As noted in several other blog entries, these people seem to have been brainwashed.  What can we do to get them out of their fog and wake up to reality?  Where do we go from here?